Unofficial Preview Changes and Discussion - Grand Final Edition v Collingwood

[The Plowking]

Cox didn't much week 1 though.

But tall lumbering forwards have never been our weakness. Is the nimble mid sized ones that cause us grief. We shut down De Goey and there really isn't too much other goal scoring from the pies.

Not quite!
JDG 45, Hoskin-Elliott 41, J Thomas 38, Stephenson 36, Mihocek 28, Cox 23.

 

[The Plowking]

So 70% chance of rain.
Of that 70%, 50% chance of 1mm and 25% chance of 2mm.

So not really much.

4day rule is best.
We'll know Wednesday with a high degree of accuracy.

 

[thylacine60]

Brad Scott and Co on footy show, still not showing Eagles enough respect, implying the advantage from a hostile home crowd helped them win, oh and credit where it's due, Eagles played well...understatement... given it was the lowest halftime score since who knows when..they still cling to this idea that playing at the MCG will be completely
different for the Eagles?
Makes you realise how much of a bubble Melbourne footy punters live in, how much they believe their own hype, Demons and Tigers a good example...
A GF win is not guaranteed, but get up to speed Melbourne! This game is the one Eagles have been waiting for,
they didn't get here by accident...

please don't think that is the prevailing opinion here just because the national media talks s**t........

 

[Red mist]

Congrats on reaching your 7th GF.
Wooshette and co I hope you have a great week soaking it up with your team and bring it on Saturday.

 

[Wosh]

Congrats on reaching your 7th GF.
Wooshette and co I hope you have a great week soaking it up with your team and bring it on Saturday.

Cheers Moisty, it’s still sinking in that we are playing in the Grannie next week..it will hit on Friday when the boys cruise through Melbourne in the parade!
Playing Collingwood is my dream GF, been wanting to play them for 20 years...now I just wanna smash them

 

[Max zero]

Shep had to be moved on him because Schoey was troubled by his pace on the lead.

Watching the highlights and other videos of the game. Sheppard had just as many problems with De Goey's speed and agility.

1st Goal Schofield
2nd no one (cheapie over the back)
3rd Sheppard
4th Sheppard

That were all goals in play none were from a lead.

 

[BartBart]

please don't think that is the prevailing opinion here just because the national media talks s**t........

I think they don't realise there is an audience outside Victoria

 

[Red mist]

Congrats on reaching your 7th GF.
Wooshette and co I hope you have a great week soaking it up with your team and bring it on Saturday.

I always remember this from a few yrs back. It's was an emotional time for our club. Worsfold came over and helped out. First game after was against you guy and there was the circle.
I'm on board.

 

[Max zero]

Not quite!
JDG 45, Hoskin-Elliott 41, J Thomas 38, Stephenson 36, Mihocek 28, Cox 23.

Beating up bottom 8 teams is good and all but in the finals so far:

Hoskin Elliot 2 goals from 3 games
Josh Thomas 3 goals from 3 games
Stephenson 2 goals from 3 games

Only one who has done anything is Mihocek (5 goals from 3 games)

If you are relying on them to get a bag you are in trouble.

For comparison:

Kennedy 6 goals from 2 games
Darling 5 goals from 2 games
Lecras 3 goals from 2 games
Cripps 4 goals from 2 games
Ryan 3 goals from 2 games

Outside of Degoey and Cox providing a target there isn't a lot there.

 

[The Plowking]

Beating up bottom 8 teams is good and all but in the finals so far:

Hoskin Elliot 2 goals from 3 games
Josh Thomas 3 goals from 3 games
Stephenson 2 goals from 3 games

Only one who has done anything is Mihocek.

If you are relying on them to get a bag you are in trouble.

Hopefully it's an even spread.

 

[Max zero]

Hopefully it's an even spread.

If you a getting a goal a game you a just a goal kicking mid. De Goey isn't dangerous because he can kick 1 or 2 goals but because he can kick 3 or 4.

The even spread tends to be less effective in finals. I mean how many times has a small forward had a big game in a grand final? Why is it you wanted Cox back so bad even with only 28 goals for year? Because of the structure and target he provides. No one else (even De Goey) can provide that.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Beating up bottom 8 teams is good and all but in the finals so far:

Hoskin Elliot 2 goals from 3 games
Josh Thomas 3 goals from 3 games
Stephenson 2 goals from 3 games

Only one who has done anything is Mihocek (5 goals from 3 games)

If you are relying on them to get a bag you are in trouble.

For comparison:

Kennedy 6 goals from 2 games
Darling 5 goals from 2 games
Lecras 3 goals from 2 games
Cripps 4 goals from 2 games
Ryan 3 goals from 2 games

Outside of Degoey and Cox providing a target there isn't a lot there.

The sample size is a bit low to be statically significant.

 

[Max zero]

The sample size is a bit low to be statically significant.

While I could give you s**t about your minnow bashing record in the H&A season we are in the finals now so I decided to stick with that. Suffice to say your smaller forwards have form in lowering their colours when against top 8 teams. Since everyone in the finals is a top 8 team don't see a problem with extending the form lines.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

While I could give you s**t about your minnow bashing record in the H&A season we are in the finals now so I decided to stick with that. Suffice to say your smaller forwards have form in lowering their colours when against top 8 teams. Since everyone in the finals is a top 8 team don't see a problem with extending the form lines.

Agree with you general comments about footy. However your statistical analysis using a 2-3 game sample size and then making broad sweeping comments is naive (although common to big footy). My advise would to go back and look at all the games played against top 8 sides this year, if you feel that the 'minnows' make our small/mid sized forwards look better than they are. That way your sample size is at least 10-12 games. Sorry about the intrusion and i didnt mean to ruffle any feathers. Just pointing out the statistically poor argument.

 

[Max zero]

Agree with you general comments about footy. However your statistical analysis using a 2-3 game sample size and then making broad sweeping comments is naive (although common to big footy). My advise would to go back and look at all the games played against top 8 sides this year, if you feel that the 'minnows' make our small/mid sized forwards look better than they are. That way your sample size is at least 10-12 games. Sorry about the intrusion and i didnt mean to ruffle any feathers. Just pointing out the statistical poor argument.

I could do that but thats a lot of work and this is a lazy post-prelim Sunday.

But let me ask you if I were to do the analysis what would you expect me to find? Do think it's more likely your smaller forwards did proportionally better against bottom 10 teams or against top 8 teams (remember you lost almost of these games)?

I don't really think my viewpoint on this is really controversial.

 

[Gwaihir]

Watching the highlights and other videos of the game. Sheppard had just as many problems with De Goey's speed and agility.

1st Goal Schofield
2nd no one (cheapie over the back)
3rd Sheppard
4th Sheppard

That were all goals in play none were from a lead.

Without big Cox, Pies kicked at De Goey 9 times in the first quarter alone. I recall at least one of those De Goey was out in front and Schoey was done on the lead, although obviously did not result in a goal. He was looking threatening and the change was made. In Schoey's defence, he was in for Barrass and expecting to matchup on the big yank.
Come Saturday, I would back our well organised defensive unit to help out and chop his leads, similar to the QF. So Schoey to De Goey. If he gets off the chain, Tom Cole can have a crack. Still not working, Yeo could shut him down after half time and throw Tom Cole to the middle a la Brett Heady 92. Note: Don't really want to take Yeo out of the middle.

 

[Max zero]

Without big Cox, Pies kicked at De Goey 9 times in the first quarter alone. I recall at least one of those De Goey was out in front and Schoey was done on the lead, although obviously did not result in a goal. He was looking threatening and the change was made. In Schoey's defence, he was in for Barrass and expecting to matchup on the big yank.
Come Saturday, I would back our well organised defensive unit to help out and chop his leads, similar to the QF. So Schoey to De Goey. If he gets off the chain, Tom Cole can have a crack. Still not working, Yeo could shut him down after half time and throw Tom Cole to the middle a la Brett Heady 92. Note: Don't really want to take Yeo out of the middle.

Definately don't want to take Yeo out of middle.

But to me he is the danger man. He is the exact sort of player that almost causes us grief.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

I could do that but thats a lot of work and this is a lazy post-prelim Sunday.

But let me ask you if I were to do the analysis what would you expect me to find? Do think it's more likely your smaller forwards did proportionally better against bottom 10 teams or against top 8 teams (remember you lost almost of these games)?

I don't really think my viewpoint on this is really controversial.

I wouldnt want to do it either and i have no idea what you would find. Your view point is your opinion it might be accurate but who knows.

 

[Spange]

Definately don't want to take Yeo out of middle.

But to me he is the danger man. He is the exact sort of player that almost causes us grief.

Pies will have a bigger problem trying to stop our forward line. Hopefully it’s not too slippery out there as that negates our marking talls as we saw in the first final against the pies.

 

[Wosh]

Cox has played his GF, he’s not doing that s**t again.

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

So 70% chance of rain.
Of that 70%, 50% chance of 1mm and 25% chance of 2mm.

So not really much.

Although being Melbourne that forecast could change 100 times before Saturday.

hahah you are giving me a Melbourne forecast 6 days ahead of schedule?? haha.. I live in Melbourne, weather forecast from morning could be totally different to afternoon on the same day. Lets wait few more days.

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

Pies will have a bigger problem trying to stop our forward line. Hopefully it’s not too slippery out there as that negates our marking talls as we saw in the first final against the pies.

Let's play slippery this time. We played Hawks in a perfect sunnny day. Lets see how we go in a rainy version.

 

[BartBart]

hahah you are giving me a Melbourne forecast 6 days ahead of schedule?? haha.. I live in Melbourne, weather forecast from morning could be totally different to afternoon on the same day. Lets wait few more days.

Nah - just explaining to people what tthe forecast actually means as most don't understand what the 1-2mm actually means. Lower figure is 50% chance & higher figure 25% chance.

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

I would actually give Yeo a job to go with sidebottom. Throw pies off their game, Levi will have to follow yeo meaning one of our players ( most likey Hutch ) will be free. Sidebottom and maynard to me are danger players.I am happy with Hutch doing the job on sidebottom as well. equation is simple- if we break even or slightly lose the midfield battle we will win quiet comfortably. We could still win comfortably if we kick straight( with minimum chances) and get smashed in the middle. But I much rather break even in the middle.

We have two big advantages- solid to above average back-line ad elite forward line with solid to above average crumbs.If redden, Yeo, sheed and shuey get their 20-25 touches. we get at least 45 I50's its over Keep it simple like we have all year, stick to our guns, and repeat repeat repeat. There is a reason why we won 10 games in a row this year. This is our time. That win against pies at the G was immense.

 

[The Plowking]

Cox has played his GF, he’s not doing that s**t again.

That's our fear!