Unofficial Preview Changes and discussion Round 15 v the Demons.

[trikster]

SEN pumping up the Demons this morning, looks like we will be taking on the hottest team in the competition next Sunday afternoon.

Both teams playing their grand final next weekend no doubt

 

[lionsrules]

Cant understand the fuss around the demons. Freo were down two on the bench at half time.

Outs: Allison, Lester, Mathieson.
Ins: J Berry, Walker, Bailey.

 

[martinson]

It's not often that you have guys in the ressies who you know are going to be better players than the ones you have in your firsts but right now we have 5 or 6 who could potentially fit that bill over the next year or two

I'm quite excited by the depth that we're building , it's a shame that the guys in the NEAFL don't get to test themselves out against strong opposition.

Really keen to get Adams up and going because good judges tell me that guy could be a force.

 

[spotthedog1]

Don't get the disdain for Allison. Did a few things well, did a few things poorly, but I could easily say the same for Clug, and I don't think any would say he should be dropped. Defensively he did a decent job throughout. Offensively, still waiting for him to get the confidence to go for a run. He'll get there though.

For me, it's Lester out, Bailey in. Anyone who watched the NEAFL game could see the Bailey is ready to go. If Bez is ready, it might be unlucky Matho to make way.

 

[Tom14]

Both teams playing their grand final next weekend no doubt

Man that joke really never gets old!

 

[lionsrules]

article in the courier mail states Fages says Starcevich is pushing for a recall too.
Jeez this is good, this is really good.

 

[a mayes ing]

Don't get the disdain for Allison. Did a few things well, did a few things poorly, but I could easily say the same for Clug, and I don't think any would say he should be dropped. Defensively he did a decent job throughout. Offensively, still waiting for him to get the confidence to go for a run. He'll get there though.

For me, it's Lester out, Bailey in. Anyone who watched the NEAFL game could see the Bailey is ready to go. If Bez is ready, it might be unlucky Matho to make way.

Could easily be Lester but iirc Allison had 12 disposals and 6 of them were clangers.

 

[a mayes ing]

article in the courier mail states Fages says Starcevich is pushing for a recall too.
Jeez this is good, this is really good.

How was he in the 2's? Thought he still needed a few more games. Doubt there will be more than 2 changes to a winning team (Berry, Bailey)

 

[lionsrules]

How was he in the 2's? Thought he still needed a few more games. Doubt there will be more than 2 changes to a winning team (Berry, Bailey)

Didnt watch it but 24 disposals, 5 tackles, 5 marks and 4 inside 50's.

 

[Nunez]

How was he in the 2's? Thought he still needed a few more games. Doubt there will be more than 2 changes to a winning team (Berry, Bailey)

Everything but his kicking was strong. Unfortunately missed way too many targets for NEAFL level. Fortunately that is usually his strong suit so not much to be concerned about.

 

[royboys4eva]

Need Lester as the third tall.

Out Allison Matho
In Bailey J.Berry

 

[John_Proctor]

Given bailey did his hammy last time he came up to ones I’d give him another week in the reserves.

 

[Fatcat08]

It's not often that you have guys in the ressies who you know are going to be better players than the ones you have in your firsts but right now we have 5 or 6 who could potentially fit that bill over the next year or two

I'm quite excited by the depth that we're building , it's a shame that the guys in the NEAFL don't get to test themselves out against strong opposition.

Really keen to get Adams up and going because good judges tell me that guy could be a force.

So do we know they will be better, or do they have potential to be better I'm a bit confused. I think saying we know they will be better is a step too far. Too many cases of guys looking great at neafl level early in their careers and then just being completely unable to replicate that at AFL level and being off the list 2 years later.

Averages would point to only about 1 to 3 of those guys actually getting there.

We've seen already this year a bunch of guys struggle with the step up given hope big the gap is, and those who have looked ok aren't necessarily the ones getting 30 possessions. It's a really hard one to judge because while some players seem to manage the step up in intensity and speed well there's many more who simply struggle with it and can't improve enough to make it. We've just had too many guys over the years fail to make the jump to give me any confidence of labelling any of our young guys as guarantees to make it.

Having said that this is the first time in many many years that I have confidence that if they don't make it it won't be because they weren't developed them well enough. It will be more about a combo of their ability and dedication than our inability to get the best out of them.

 

[M Malice]

Danny Daly this morning saying that Jarrod Berry is ready to play this week it's just a matter of if he comes straight back in or if we bring him back through the NEAFL.

It'd be surprising if he plays NEAFL, Jarrod is one of our best endurance guys so I don't think he would have lost much even though he would have been off his legs for a while with the knee.

Berry and Bailey back in would make us significantly stronger this weekend.

 

[carnthemlions]

Don't get the disdain for Allison. Did a few things well, did a few things poorly, but I could easily say the same for Clug, and I don't think any would say he should be dropped. Defensively he did a decent job throughout. Offensively, still waiting for him to get the confidence to go for a run. He'll get there though.

For me, it's Lester out, Bailey in. Anyone who watched the NEAFL game could see the Bailey is ready to go. If Bez is ready, it might be unlucky Matho to make way.

I kinda feel for the guy, nothing he did went right. He didn't look close to being up to standard though.

Given bailey did his hammy last time he came up to ones I’d give him another week in the reserves.

I'd also like him to spend a while working on his panic merchant tendencies before he gets another game, he hurt us almost more than he helped in most of his appearances this season. He hasn't convinced me as a player yet.

 

[spotthedog1]

I kinda feel for the guy, nothing he did went right. He didn't look close to being up to standard though.

Agree to disagree. Not saying he's there yet, but two games at the level, I think he's looking a bit better.

The reason I brought up McCluggage is that he looked a bit off it in a few pieces, and he and Allison were regularly on the same wing so they worked at times. Thing's like Bundy's freakish snap... Allison kept the ball in, got it to McCluggage, and Clug ran himself into trouble and then threw it to Bundy. Should've been incorrect disposal.

For the avoidance of doubt, not advocating for dropping Clug at all. Seems to be either playing through injury or illness. As soon as he's right, I'm sure he'll be back at his usual freaking amazing level.

 

[Clarkythelion]

My changes are - IF FIT - then I default to Fagan doesn't like to change a winning side.

Berry walks back in and unfortunately Alison was only keeping his spot warm.
Bailey did his hammy last time after only 1 game in the reserves, but it was Ballaratt where Eskimos still live. This will be a warmer Sunday afternoon game so I'd risk him and again unfortunately Lester makes way for Bailey.

Just can't see any others, I understand the debate on Mathieson but like some others have said there is just body work around the ball he does that gives other a split second more, I'm persisting with him.

 

[Tom14]

Agree to disagree. Not saying he's there yet, but two games at the level, I think he's looking a bit better.

The reason I brought up McCluggage is that he looked a bit off it in a few pieces, and he and Allison were regularly on the same wing so they worked at times. Thing's like Bundy's freakish snap... Allison kept the ball in, got it to McCluggage, and Clug ran himself into trouble and then threw it to Bundy. Should've been incorrect disposal.

For the avoidance of doubt, not advocating for dropping Clug at all. Seems to be either playing through injury or illness. As soon as he's right, I'm sure he'll be back at his usual freaking amazing level.

I like the idea that Clug was off on Saturday - I'll take 20+ disposals and two goals any day!

Also it was Rayner not Allison who kept the ball in during the lead up to Bundy's goal - Huddo misread the guernsey number.

 

[martinson]

So do we know they will be better, or do they have potential to be better I'm a bit confused. I think saying we know they will be better is a step too far. Too many cases of guys looking great at neafl level early in their careers and then just being completely unable to replicate that at AFL level and being off the list 2 years later.

Averages would point to only about 1 to 3 of those guys actually getting there.

We've seen already this year a bunch of guys struggle with the step up given hope big the gap is, and those who have looked ok aren't necessarily the ones getting 30 possessions. It's a really hard one to judge because while some players seem to manage the step up in intensity and speed well there's many more who simply struggle with it and can't improve enough to make it. We've just had too many guys over the years fail to make the jump to give me any confidence of labelling any of our young guys as guarantees to make it.

Having said that this is the first time in many many years that I have confidence that if they don't make it it won't be because they weren't developed them well enough. It will be more about a combo of their ability and dedication than our inability to get the best out of them.

Well absolutely.

But I'm working off the basis that Bailey ,Starcevich and Cutler have already shown themselves up to the level ,perhaps even Bastinac . Then you've got Tommy Berry , I'll give up any forecasting if he doesn't make it ,Coleman whom we need to draft , but potentially a gun , unproven of course , before you get into your Adams , who is just a really good player imo , Wooler ,Fullarton ,Payne and others .

So we've got plenty to work with.

 

[Tom14]

Berry for Allison the logical change. Walker in for Lester if we want to go taller up forward.

Given Bailey has done two hammies already this year I think he needs a longer period in the NEAFL to make sure he is ready to play in the Seniors.

 

[a mayes ing]

Berry for Allison the logical change. Walker in for Lester if we want to go taller up forward.

Given Bailey has done two hammies already this year I think he needs a longer period in the NEAFL to make sure he is ready to play in the Seniors.

Don't think it will matter for his hammy if he plays 2nds or seniors. He will still be running really fast and i dont see how it will be less of a chance in the 2's. It will either happen or not

 

[Fatcat08]

Well absolutely.

But I'm working off the basis that Bailey ,Starcevich and Cutler have already shown themselves up to the level ,perhaps even Bastinac . Then you've got Tommy Berry , I'll give up any forecasting if he doesn't make it ,Coleman whom we need to draft , but potentially a gun , unproven of course , before you get into your Adams , who is just a really good player imo , Wooler ,Fullarton ,Payne and others .

So we've got plenty to work with.

I don't disagree that the guys have promise, but I don't think we can say we know they're going to be better players than those already in the team. Of that list i would have bailey as the only one i would firmly have that opinion of. The rest are all speculative at best. I liked Starcevich and his attributes, something just screams Yeo to me there but its still a very big question mark as to how he develops. I'm not quite sure on the strike rate of draftees etc but at best you'll probably have 50-60% of them on your list in 3-4 years time.

I mean you look at 2007 to 2016 drafts(not including the last 2 drafts as those guys are on their initial contract still) of drafting and of the 58 National Draft picks (so not even rookies unless we've elevated them) there's 16 left on our list (of which 10 are from the last 2 years i counted in 2015 and 2016) as well as another 13 on other AFL lists in the comp (geez never ceases to shock me how much we've lost over the years - albeit a number are in their last year or close to it i'd imagine - hanley, henderson, longer)

If you extrapolate that it means there's about a 50% chance of our draftees actually going on to play AFL football, so a number of guys on our list will be gone in the next 3-4 years and will most likely never make it at AFL level unfortunately.

 

[lioninthesand]

Pretty surprised at the odds for this match.

Bookies have it at 1.42 to 2.73 our favour. Thought it'd be more of a 50/50 game given Melbourne's win over Freo today

I actaully though Melbourne could have been outside of $3. Freo lost 4 players down the stretch to injury in game and Melbourne still struggled to put them away with no rotations, otherwise Freo would have won by 5 goals IMO. If it was at the MCG it would be even money or us just slightly ahead. We are pretty hard to beat at the Gabba and the Dees suck, I would have fallen off my chair if the betting was even.

 

[lioninthesand]

We won by 10 goals.
Allison for Berry.

I know right. People still suggesting 3 or 4 changes. I know its a 'changes thread' but no way players are getting shifted around for the sake of it after a 10 goal win.

 

[Dalions]

Don't think it will matter for his hammy if he plays 2nds or seniors. He will still be running really fast and i dont see how it will be less of a chance in the 2's. It will either happen or not

I think the point is that it is more risky to put him in the seniors because if he does a hammy in the first quarter we are down a runner for the rest of the game!
Not so much of a risk in the 2’s!
Needs another game in the 2’s to prove his Hammy is up to it, after having done it twice already!