Unofficial Preview Changes and discussion Round 15 v the Demons.

[Gabbattoir]

This is so good, I did these numbers last year when we were discussing Trading or Drafting. You draft you get a 50/50 chance of a footballer in your top 22 but trade, well your odds are much increased. You can however draft an absolute champion that would be too high a price at the trading table and I'd say in the last 3 years we might have got a couple of them.

It’s even more precise than 50/50 top twenty and is an almost linear relationship between top picks and games played. I’ve seen the figures a few times and although its an obvious assumption, its true that the higher the pick the more likely it is they will influence AFL for longer. Gifted games to higher picks probably flatters the scouts ability to find the talent, but the numbers suggest they get it right a lot.

I think it’s a great way of helping value a certain pick you are wanting to trade for a player. For example, pick 11 averages 75 afl games. The player you want has played a certain amount of games already and you have an idea about his fit in the best 22 and longevity. Again not a simple as that, but gives you are starting point.

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

I don't disagree that the guys have promise, but I don't think we can say we know they're going to be better players than those already in the team. Of that list i would have bailey as the only one i would firmly have that opinion of. The rest are all speculative at best. I liked Starcevich and his attributes, something just screams Yeo to me there but its still a very big question mark as to how he develops. I'm not quite sure on the strike rate of draftees etc but at best you'll probably have 50-60% of them on your list in 3-4 years time.

I mean you look at 2007 to 2016 drafts(not including the last 2 drafts as those guys are on their initial contract still) of drafting and of the 58 National Draft picks (so not even rookies unless we've elevated them) there's 16 left on our list (of which 10 are from the last 2 years i counted in 2015 and 2016) as well as another 13 on other AFL lists in the comp (geez never ceases to shock me how much we've lost over the years - albeit a number are in their last year or close to it i'd imagine - hanley, henderson, longer)

If you extrapolate that it means there's about a 50% chance of our draftees actually going on to play AFL football, so a number of guys on our list will be gone in the next 3-4 years and will most likely never make it at AFL level unfortunately.

This is exactly why I don't want to see too many senior fringe players delisted this year, only to be replaced by more deep draft picks (as we seem to do every year). Going into 2 or 3 years with a genuine shot at a flag, I'd much rather have Christensen, Bastinac, Lester, Taylor, Robinson & Martin staying on the list for depth and more importantly experience. Unless we trade in experienced players that are an upgrade on those names.

I'd hate to see them delisted/pushed into retirement only to be replaced by pick 55, 71 and 86. We only need to take 2 top draftees + a rookie upgrade (McInerney). No point taking more.

 

[dlanod]

This is exactly why I don't want to see too many senior fringe players delisted this year, only to be replaced by more deep draft picks (as we seem to do every year). Going into 2 or 3 years with a genuine shot at a flag, I'd much rather have Christensen, Bastinac, Lester, Taylor, Robinson & Martin staying on the list for depth and more importantly experience. Unless we trade in experienced players that are an upgrade on those names.

I'd hate to see them delisted/pushed into retirement only to be replaced by pick 55, 71 and 86. We only need to take 2 top draftees + a rookie upgrade (McInerney). No point taking more.

We've had a definite strategy of targeting top 30 picks and you can see that in the picks we've taken. It's only the last couple of drafts where that's changed as we've brought in five star players which required giving up five star picks.

I don't expect us to maintain a churn into later picks given we're no longer looking for upside, instead more interested in steady contributions as we push into finals.

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

We've had a definite strategy of targeting top 30 picks and you can see that in the picks we've taken. It's only the last couple of drafts where that's changed as we've brought in five star players which required giving up five star picks.

I don't expect us to maintain a churn into later picks given we're no longer looking for upside, instead more interested in steady contributions as we push into finals.

Yep, I don't expect us to either. Just looking at the contract status and I'm getting worried.

 

[Tom14]

It’s even more precise than 50/50 top twenty and is an almost linear relationship between top picks and games played. I’ve seen the figures a few times and although its an obvious assumption, its true that the higher the pick the more likely it is they will influence AFL for longer. Gifted games to higher picks probably flatters the scouts ability to find the talent, but the numbers suggest they get it right a lot.

I think it’s a great way of helping value a certain pick you are wanting to trade for a player. For example, pick 11 averages 75 afl games. The player you want has played a certain amount of games already and you have an idea about his fit in the best 22 and longevity. Again not a simple as that, but gives you are starting point.

HPN Footy's draft pick value index is essentially based on this - their first iteration was purely based on games played, but its a bit more sophisticated now and includes a few more variables. The chart they developed roughly backs up your point: https://www.hpnfooty.com/?page_id=22741

 

[Clarkythelion]

It’s even more precise than 50/50 top twenty and is an almost linear relationship between top picks and games played. I’ve seen the figures a few times and although its an obvious assumption, its true that the higher the pick the more likely it is they will influence AFL for longer. Gifted games to higher picks probably flatters the scouts ability to find the talent, but the numbers suggest they get it right a lot.

I think it’s a great way of helping value a certain pick you are wanting to trade for a player. For example, pick 11 averages 75 afl games. The player you want has played a certain amount of games already and you have an idea about his fit in the best 22 and longevity. Again not a simple as that, but gives you are starting point.

Isn't there some bizarre stat on pick 6, it's a bit like the poison chalice of the top 10, take it out and the stats look even better for top 10 picks.

 

[Clarkythelion]

This is exactly why I don't want to see too many senior fringe players delisted this year, only to be replaced by more deep draft picks (as we seem to do every year). Going into 2 or 3 years with a genuine shot at a flag, I'd much rather have Christensen, Bastinac, Lester, Taylor, Robinson & Martin staying on the list for depth and more importantly experience. Unless we trade in experienced players that are an upgrade on those names.

I'd hate to see them delisted/pushed into retirement only to be replaced by pick 55, 71 and 86. We only need to take 2 top draftees + a rookie upgrade (McInerney). No point taking more.

Agreed. I think if we maintain our ladder position into the finals our younger second string players become more valuable at the trade table as well. If the NEAFL team continues and wins the premiership and we make the top 8 will players like Keays, Cutler, Alison be worth a few picks higher at the trade table to being in some specific position player trades. I know we have got a bit off this week's game but that happens when you have a good win.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

According to fish no change this week. Looking at Melbournes line up last week they have a very strong midfield but I would say an inferior backline and forwardline compared to us. I personally would play bez and give him a run with role on Oliver.

 

[a mayes ing]

According to fish no change this week. Looking at Melbournes line up last week they have a very strong midfield but I would say an inferior backline and forwardline compared to us. I personally would play bez and give him a run with role on Oliver.

Yep, we have a big problem with those really big boded mdfielders (Fyfe, Cripps, Oliver). We need Berry back in

 

[dlanod]

I haven't been able to raise BrizzyBandit so if anyone wants to throw together a preview, now's your chance.

 

[Nunez]

I haven't been able to raise BrizzyBandit so if anyone wants to throw together a preview, now's your chance.

Lock me in!

 

[mikey127]

Neds offering 1 75 for us to win.

 

[M Malice]

Official preview up, end thread////////////

 

[dlanod]

Preview - Brisbane Lions Vs Melbourne Demons - Sunday 3:30pm @ the Gabba

Well here we are after round 14 with 8 wins and 6 losses. It was strange to watch our 3rd quarter performance last week. For the first time I realised the days of us being at the bottom of the ladder were properly behind us. For a while anyway. We have some positional gaps perhaps.... but we...

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