Unofficial Preview Changes & discussion v the Saints round 13 @ Gabba.

[mpal6]

I would rest Robbo, replace Matho with CEY again, omit Eagles, obviously Rich & Rayner (if 100%) come in, does anyone else think if Witherden, Birchall and Answerth are all in, that Lester could play deep forward? he's a very good mark. Would consider going with just Oscar in the ruck, with McStay to provide support as St Kilda's run is their big weapon. Tough gig for Oscar but we have the bye the following week.

Bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul here, but Starcevich would look really good as the big bodied mid next to Neale and Lyons. He has a bit of dare, will take the game on and looked more assured in kicking it to good leads yesterday.

If Deven or Ely isn't ready I hope we bring Starce to the middle to change things up a bit.

 

[Scubaveg]

Sam been playing forward and back up ruck last year in NEAFL and also in match sims earlier this year. Don't know about the scratch matches, because Lions are not providing any info, but from what I have observed Payne offers a bit more as that tall back. Think Sam has lost a bit of agility with those 3 ACL's.

Yes Sam has, but nothing to do with swinging McStay into defense. Two different things. Your basically arguing for Sam to play the role Oscar has been whilst Oscar is playing main ruck. Under that scenario The remainder of the forward line and McStay’s role remains unchanged.


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[Ralphy2017]

Yes Sam has, but nothing to do with swinging McStay into defense. Two different things. Your basically arguing for Sam to play the role Oscar has been whilst Oscar is laying main ruck. Under that scenario The remainder of the forward line and McStay’s role remains unchanged.


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yes Sam or Ballenden as the back up ruck. I think they offer more in general play than Eagles and of course they are young and you would think have more upside

 

[Tom14]

Not sure when Alex went from being a favourite of this board to a whipping boy, but it seems to have happened over the past few months. It probably was that moment in the GWS final, which doesn't feel entirely fair as I don't think any of our back six could have caught Daniels in that moment, but maybe people needed a scapegoat for losing that final and he seemed an easy target.

I didn't have Witho in my top 5 today, but he would've been 6th or 7th on that list. If you're picking a team most capable of being great, you'd have him in it every time I think. Probably Noah too. Which is why I have questions about Lester.

I feel bad for suggesting Lester gets dropped, just because he doesn't really deserve it at all. He works harder than just about anybody, has a bunch of good moments (notably a few really good marks in the 4th today), and is as good a team player as you'll find.

I just can't help but feel that our back six does not look quite right when he's down there. He's good in a lot of areas of his game, but I don't think he has a standout or even great feature. I still wouldn't back him in to win a one on one contest with complete confidence yet, I think his disposal is probably the weakest of the defenders we have played this year bar Payne (even below Gardiner's, who has taken significant strides in that area in recent years), and on top of that he's not particularly quick either in a backline already struggling for pace.

Lester is a great clubman and somebody I hope we hold onto for years to come as great depth (if Gardiner went down, it would be an absolute godsend to have him there), but I'm just not sure he fits in our best 22 at the moment. Witho and Birchall are significantly better kicks than him, so is Rich who is also a better one on one defender. Starcevich and Answerth are better ball users and also have more pace, and Darcy and Harris have many more runs on the board shutting down gun key forwards. I know he brings intent, attitude, and maturity out there, and he does generally have a couple of very good moments each game in defence, but I just think we look slower and less dynamic back there when he's playing.

He might hold his spot this week and for a few more games to come, but long term I just can't see how he will be able to stay in our best team. I have a lot of affection for him though and would love to be proven wrong.

So with all that said, I'd be going:

Out: Lester, Mathieson
In: Rich, Rayner

Eagles for Skinner would be the other possibility, although I'd probably give Matt one more chance against St Kilda. He's winning a heap of the taps in ruck contests, he's just not getting it to the right areas yet - but regardless, it feels like something I'm not quite sure Skinner or Ballenden could be contributing yet.

Will depend on how the saints line up but I worry that we’d be too small if Lester goes out. Not sure we can put Starce on Membrey and get away with it when one of their rucks rest forward.

I think we can’t play all of witho, rich and birch especially against quick teams which the saints are. I’d be leaving witho out purely for structural reasons, not really based on form. I trust Birch more to bite off the corridor kicks whereas witho still misses the occasional one.

 

[Dylan12]

I didn't have Witho in my top 5 today, but he would've been 6th or 7th on that list. If you're picking a team most capable of being great, you'd have him in it every time I think. Probably Noah too. Which is why I have questions about Lester.

I feel bad for suggesting Lester gets dropped, just because he doesn't really deserve it at all. He works harder than just about anybody, has a bunch of good moments (notably a few really good marks in the 4th today), and is as good a team player as you'll find.

I just can't help but feel that our back six does not look quite right when he's down there. He's good in a lot of areas of his game, but I don't think he has a standout or even great feature. I still wouldn't back him in to win a one on one contest with complete confidence yet, I think his disposal is probably the weakest of the defenders we have played this year bar Payne (even below Gardiner's, who has taken significant strides in that area in recent years), and on top of that he's not particularly quick either in a backline already struggling for pace.

Lester is a great clubman and somebody I hope we hold onto for years to come as great depth (if Gardiner went down, it would be an absolute godsend to have him there), but I'm just not sure he fits in our best 22 at the moment. Witho and Birchall are significantly better kicks than him, so is Rich who is also a better one on one defender. Starcevich and Answerth are better ball users and also have more pace, and Darcy and Harris have many more runs on the board shutting down gun key forwards. I know he brings intent, attitude, and maturity out there, and he does generally have a couple of very good moments each game in defence, but I just think we look slower and less dynamic back there when he's playing.

He might hold his spot this week and for a few more games to come, but long term I just can't see how he will be able to stay in our best team. I have a lot of affection for him though and would love to be proven wrong.

I think you're being pretty bloody harsh on Ryan.

IMO, if it wasn't for Ryan in a number of contests yesterday, we lose. He saved us on many occasions and was in our best yesterday and also against West Coast and Adelaide earlier in the year.

Ryan is also an upgrade on Adams (so was Walker) which isn't overly hard given Adams barely can get on the park.

 

[Dylan12]

So, you're going for McStay as the backup ruck in that scenario?

Also, why do you keep including Cox in your ins? I'd love it if he were a likely option, but it appears he's no where near getting a run. Coleman seems far more likely.

McStay has rucked in the forward 50 in the past. Skinner, Eagles and Ballenden are barely rucks and have looked out of their depth, so why not go with the extra runner?

As for Cox, I like him. Is there a reason why any players name can't be put forward for selection? I'd like Christensen in too, but apparently he's a ways off.

 

[piari]

Rich playing in reserves scratch match against StKilda & North's reserves? At Yeronga now.

 

[Comeback Lions]

There seems to be a general consensus to go back to Skinner or Ballenden as 2nd ruck when both of them showed very little in that role. We need to remember that they played 2 games when McStay was out and were promising as forwards in the first big win against Essendon, and not so promising as forwards in the debacle against Richmond. Their performance in the ruck was not impressive in either game, despite significantly more game time than that given to Eagles and Archie Smith. Of course, stats are only part of the story, but they are instructive and tend to confirm Archie Smith as the next best ruck option, and also that we have used Eagles in the same role as Archie, playing on average less than half the game.

Hitouts and game time in 2 games:
Skinner: 0 + 1 = 1 hitouts Game time: 70% ; 81%
Ballenden: 2+3=5 hitouts Game time: 70%; 73%
Eagles: 3+12=15 hitouts Game time: 46%; 46%
Smith 14+10+10= 22.66 (averaged) hitouts Game time: 39%; 52%: 43%

Of course the argument about development is a valid one, but I can't see either Ballenden or Skinner ever developing into rucks. They are options as forwards or defenders, but with McStay back we don't need them. I would be persevering with Eagles, as the best way of dealing with the possibility that Martin and Smith might not be back for finals.

 

[a mayes ing]

I think we should bring back Berry junior. Elite speed, tackling pressure, would lock it in the forward line.

 

[Lazza16]

I think the Saints have probably the best ruck DUO in the league with Marshall and Ryder so will be a big ask for a makeshift fill in to combat one of those two. Also, not that sure about Marshall but Ryder has hurt us before resting forward so it could be a payneful night at the selection table.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

Its interesting that the general consensus seems to be that it would be difficult to play all three of rich, birch and witho together because of the overlap in skills. I actually thought it worked well when they played together against the dogs, from memory the presence of witho also freed up rich to play the designated kicker on hand offs even more consistently than he had been previously

 

[bungalow_bill]

Keeps coming up, just a fantasy. Snow flakes chance in hell McStay will be swing back.


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McStay is crucial to our forward line no way he goes to defense even tho he is a decent defender

 

[Tom14]

Its interesting that the general consensus seems to be that it would be difficult to play all three of rich, birch and witho together because of the overlap in skills. I actually thought it worked well when they played together against the dogs, from memory the presence of witho also freed up rich to play the designated kicker on hand offs even more consistently than he had been previously

The dogs also waltzed it out if D50 with ease and they aren’t the most dynamic of teams up forward. That’s definitely the structure we play and a lack of forward pressure to be fair.

Saint kilda has incredible team speed and has made a killing getting easy goals over the back all year - that’s why they are number one for accuracy. We will need Lester, dizzy and Harris for king, the resting ruck, battle and membrey, which leaves 4 other spots to deal with butler, hind and their other very speedy smalls.

Witho, Birch and Rich May work offensively. But we are going to need starce and answerth to do more defensive jobs which leaves only 2 spots. At this stage I’d prefer to have Birch to go with Rich but I understand why some may see it differently. It’s no great knock on Alex who has been playing well, it’s just team balance.

 

[davemc_lions]

The problem with Rich, Birch and Witho all in the team. None are too fast and defence/body wise Birch and Witho not as good as Rich.
Birch picks better targets under pressure as many years older than Witho. Hence Witho missed out for weeks.
Still not sure the backline is settled..
Andrews if he needs to lock down the best forward then we loose his intercepting.
So we often playing Darcy on the best tall to free up Andrews.. He can get outsized.
Starc/Answerth taking the dangerous small.
We sort of missing the another Key defence with Adams out and Walker gone. We been using Lester and Darcy for this role
Some weeks it works and others it does not

Having 3 mainly offensive players in a 6 man defence can get caught out.

 

[mpal6]

Its interesting that the general consensus seems to be that it would be difficult to play all three of rich, birch and witho together because of the overlap in skills. I actually thought it worked well when they played together against the dogs, from memory the presence of witho also freed up rich to play the designated kicker on hand offs even more consistently than he had been previously

Witherden seems to have gone into his shell a bit, first year I still remember him pulling the trigger on certain audacious, pin point kicks down the middle. He looks to be taking too conservative options these days, I wonder if that's impacting his ability to be creative. It could be the role coaching staff are asking him to play, from outside it's really hard to understand what is driving that style.

If he goes back to his creative self, we could play all three side by side. All 3 are not quick off the mark, but their ability to hit targets is what sets them apart and gives them a place in the team. If anyone of them slips in output in that area, then becomes difficult to carry that deficit. Instead of a reduced output from one of the kicking specialists we could look at changing the structure slightly and benefit from a lockdown role even.

For example, we could get Payne to play 2nd tall, Darce to cover a small / play lockdown / zone off and Andrews to be the main tall - giving us better structure coming out of defense with Rich, Birchall, Answerth in the field & Starcevich coming off the bench.

 

[BRAB]

Witherden seems to have gone into his shell a bit, first year I still remember him pulling the trigger on certain audacious, pin point kicks down the middle. He looks to be taking too conservative options these days, I wonder if that's impacting his ability to be creative. It could be the role coaching staff are asking him to play, from outside it's really hard to understand what is driving that style.

If he goes back to his creative self, we could play all three side by side. All 3 are not quick off the mark, but their ability to hit targets is what sets them apart and gives them a place in the team. If anyone of them slips in output in that area, then becomes difficult to carry that deficit. Instead of a reduced output from one of the kicking specialists we could look at changing the structure slightly and benefit from a lockdown role even.

For example, we could get Payne to play 2nd tall, Darce to cover a small / play lockdown / zone off and Andrews to be the main tall - giving us better structure coming out of defense with Rich, Birchall, Answerth in the field & Starcevich coming off the bench.

If you read comments from the family on social media witherden was directed to change his game after his first year.

 

[rockypls]

Robbo out for Rich - starc to play wing
Eagles out for literally anyone available

 

[The Flying Belgian]

McStay has rucked in the forward 50 in the past. Skinner, Eagles and Ballenden are barely rucks and have looked out of their depth, so why not go with the extra runner?

Re: McStay. What percentage would you see him rucking? Neither he or Oscar are players I really want to risk by playing them too long in unfamiliar positions. Nothing should be off the table, but it's not something I'd be rushing towards. There's no way you can expect Oscar to play 100% game time, even if he's not rucking forward.

As for Cox, I like him. Is there a reason why any players name can't be put forward for selection? I'd like Christensen in too, but apparently he's a ways off.

No, not really. These threads never specify whether they're predictions or preference. I like him too, but in any case it appears he's not close to selection. Coleman seems to be the closest like-for-like. Do you see Cedric forward or back?

 

[Saucery]

Robinson out for Rich (Starcevich to wing, Rich back). Robbo clearly needs a rest.

Matheson out for Rayner.

AhChee out for Coleman.

Among other events, Cameron grabbed at his knee after a left foot kick. Don’t think he was right. Cox gets a go.

There was talk on the lions website about this (Starc to the wing) earlier in the year, mostly from him , and for mine I'd love to see him have a go.

Starcevich primed for 2020

Brandon Starcevich's off-season has left him primed for Senior selection in 2020

www.lions.com.au

 

[martinson]

There seems to be a general consensus to go back to Skinner or Ballenden as 2nd ruck when both of them showed very little in that role. We need to remember that they played 2 games when McStay was out and were promising as forwards in the first big win against Essendon, and not so promising as forwards in the debacle against Richmond. Their performance in the ruck was not impressive in either game, despite significantly more game time than that given to Eagles and Archie Smith. Of course, stats are only part of the story, but they are instructive and tend to confirm Archie Smith as the next best ruck option, and also that we have used Eagles in the same role as Archie, playing on average less than half the game.

Hitouts and game time in 2 games:
Skinner: 0 + 1 = 1 hitouts Game time: 70% ; 81%
Ballenden: 2+3=5 hitouts Game time: 70%; 73%
Eagles: 3+12=15 hitouts Game time: 46%; 46%
Smith 14+10+10= 22.66 (averaged) hitouts Game time: 39%; 52%: 43%

Of course the argument about development is a valid one, but I can't see either Ballenden or Skinner ever developing into rucks. They are options as forwards or defenders, but with McStay back we don't need them. I would be persevering with Eagles, as the best way of dealing with the possibility that Martin and Smith might not be back for finals.

Eagles has offered far more in the ruck than either Skinner or Ballenden and hasn't been that bad given his game time and prep.

Ballenden can't ruck at all yet imo. Skinner at least tries to bore in a little.

 

[Ralphy2017]

I think you're being pretty bloody harsh on Ryan.

IMO, if it wasn't for Ryan in a number of contests yesterday, we lose. He saved us on many occasions and was in our best yesterday and also against West Coast and Adelaide earlier in the year.

Ryan is also an upgrade on Adams (so was Walker) which isn't overly hard given Adams barely can get on the park.

interesting point was Payne on his debut and one and only game against a hot Richmond side had 89% ball efficiency. From what I have seen through NEAFL can kick both feet and after checking the draft combine results Payne scored 29/30 for the kicking test with Ballenden scoring 30/30, using both feet. I think both of these young guys and Jackson Prior, and Ely Smith, T Berry and Wooller have good upside, and depending on the opposition should be considered.
Another poster posted on BF today that Payne appeared to play well against Majak DAW today in the scratch match at Yeronga. We are going to need a few of these guys over the next few weeks

 

[Scubaveg]

Anyone with any idea of when Martin and Adams return from injury? Has to be getting close now.

Adams was reported as 6 weeks on 11 May. That’s the best part of 13 weeks ago now.

Martin 8 weeks on 23 July not too far away either.




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Anyone???


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[Ralphy2017]

I think you're being pretty bloody harsh on Ryan.

IMO, if it wasn't for Ryan in a number of contests yesterday, we lose. He saved us on many occasions and was in our best yesterday and also against West Coast and Adelaide earlier in the year.

Ryan is also an upgrade on Adams (so was Walker) which isn't overly hard given Adams barely can get on the park.

I think the post was stating that depending on the opposition Lester is not an automatic best 22. Interestingly according to the Lions match summary against North Lester was not in the top 6. Yes he played well yesterday but he did not have a difficult match up , and he played well against a dispirited Eagles side a few months ago and well lets be honest Adelaide are in bad shape, so not too difficult to play well against them. He is in the mix but not an automatic lock for best 22, it depends on the weekly opposition.

 

[Nunez]

Anyone???


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Reading between the lines, I wouldn't expect Adams to play again this year.

 

[lionshine]

I wouldn't mind seeing Deven Robertson get another game. He is going to be a gun.