Changes for Brisbane

[Thylacinus]

No, that was 2006

Thanks for the clarification as it moved me to go back and read more carefully. My apologies as it would be out of form for you to make such a glaring factual oversight. Now when it comes to evaluations or judgements regarding Douglas, that may be another matter

 

[Paladin]

Question do you think Douglas is a premiership quality player? Would he be missed if he wasn't playing? You said we were led by our younger players, how much did Douglas contribute to our top 4 push? And what success are you talking about? Our NAB cup win? Because we lost 2 of 3 finals after blowing another chance to play in a GF, if that's success we have a losers mentality,

Lyons and Riley have had more than one solid SANFL game. How do we make a decision on them if they don't play or do we do what we do with Martin and keep him on the list for 5 years for sub games?

As for Cassisi, he's played one game back. Be honest, do you think we would have played him by now? Ignore the Callinan comparison. Even though Callinan is underdone and not match fit or in form if he hasn't played for over a month, didn't he get his knock pretty early against Carlton and wasn't he shit against Geelong?

Callinan didn't play against Geelong (rested) so its a little unfair to call his form shit in that game

I think Callinan was a big part of the success of our forward line last season (most efficient in the AFL) and i can understand why the coach is taking a calculated risk on him. Would you prefer our coach played it safe?

Most were complaining we had too many of the same type of mid sized marking players up forward and that Sando never made the tough calls. Now he made a tough call and dropped a seasoned veteran and ageing star who is fit and in reasonable nick the whining has intensified!

Its been a long time since our poor effort against Essendon and we must leave it all out on the park today and have a win.

 

[AFC979810]

I'm sure if we didn't have Douglas's average of 17.5 possessions in 2012 we wouldn't have made the top 4. Because his replacement would have had none.

Every other major contender for 2013 has improved their list, we've gone backwards. Where is our improvement going to come from? Douglas moving to 19.5?

I don't mean Cassisi the player as such, more so his status in the team. A similar player in Adelaide would have been picked.

Callinan has had 2 less games than the rest of the squad, he was injured early against Carlton and due to his knee can not have had the same training load as the rest of the players. He has had no form this preseason and his last 3 games of 2012 were shit.

So what should we do? Every other contender has improved, we haven't. Should we just drop Mackay / Porplyzia / Vince in addition to Douglas - as they are all around the same age and had the same output in 2012 for Lyons/Kerridge/Grigg/Joyce? In my opinion - we need to play our best 22 and make the top 4 giving ourselves every chance at a grand final.

We disagree completely on Callinan. I think he isn't underdone and has the class to come straight in. He has the fitness base from an entire preseason so I don't think his fitness will be too much of an issue.

 

[OldCrowBloke]

Because our players aren't being adequately conditioned and prepared culturally. The talent has been thereabouts for a decade plus.

What do we know? We know that for wins and losses versus flags won in the decade just gone we were an appalling, conspicuous outlier. We've seen changes of coach, changes of captain and after a total list turnover, a failure resembling our previous ones under yet another coach; losing a final at home that we were fancied to win, and then falling "gallantly" in a prelim we should never have found ourselves in.

Look at the competition record for the years 2000-2009:

http://forum.sportal.com.au/viewthread.aspx?t=68053

TEAM WINS LOSSES DRAWS POINTS F POINTS A PERCENTAGE POINTS Grand Finals Premierships
GEL 133 84 3 21642 19193 1148.76 538 3 2
ADL 129 91 0 21115 18669 1145.95 516 0 0
BRS 125 91 4 22544 20097 1131.88 508 4 3
PAD 126 92 2 21764 20278 1090.04 508 2 1
SYD 119 98 3 20664 18608 1117.5 482 2 1
ESS 114 103 3 22308 21600 1057.25 462 2 1
COL 113 107 0 21241 20554 1046.81 452 2 0
STK 110 107 3 20773 20473 1059.91 446 1 0
WCE 109 108 3 20732 21393 992.08 442 2 1
NME 109 108 3 20967 21738 964.52 442 0 0
HAW 105 115 0 20195 21051 971.08 420 1 1
WBD 102 114 4 22623 23142 990.23 416 0 0
MEL 92 127 1 20504 22530 923.16 370 1 0
FRE 92 128 0 19714 21717 919.75 368 0 0
RIC 84 133 3 19450 22537 869.19 342 0 0
CAR 81 137 2 20730 23390 913.63 328 0 0

We are just four wins behind Geelong, and AHEAD of Brisbane, and we are the only team in the top 7 not to have appeared in AT LEAST 2 grand finals. We are an embarrassing, blatant outlier among the top clubs. You just cringe every time you read this, because it lays bare that we are doing something very wrong, over and over again.

How does it look this decade? Now we've sorted our coaching coordination again, we're off to a familiar start. That 2012 campaign was a carbon copy of 2005. Beaten at home when fancied, "gallant" in defeat in a prelim with the odds supposedly stacked against us. Another season like last year and we are starting to shift into that shameful conversation again. If the coaches are changing, the players are changing, and our opposition is changing, what is continually happening to see us achieve the same results? Culture, which is controlled at the top, is the most likely culprit.

As for how it relates to this week's game - Our patterns are plainly observable and predictable in terms of both shooting ourselves in the foot, and the more depressing pattern, laying those classic "Adelaide markers" - those times where we're presented with a stage to flex our muscle as a club, and we lose. That in mind, we will lose one or both of our next two games. I predict this with extreme confidence because no Adelaide side has been able to do differently in this situation since the 90s. Should we somehow win both, there's nothing to say we shouldn't achieve a top 4 finish again - this is a bind we're in presently, this would be a show of strength and baseline resilience in the group to get it done at home and win our share away. In terms of premiership credentials, no game before Collingwood at the MCG in round 16 will give us good information. That is right at the hot part of the season, when form lines are steady and finals move into view. This is when the pecking order is really established. Between now and then we'll probably beat Hawthorn and West Coast - these are the red herring victories we rack up every time we finish in the top 8; formative clashes masquerading as dress rehearsals that only really tell us we can win at home in the minor round, low stakes, no statements being made.

This is why only 30,000 rock up to finals in Adelaide. People are sick of the same shit, and they already know how it ends.

Interesting figures over that period, but is there anything that includes the last 3 years? More relevant to our current squad.

 

[Team DJ]

Question do you think Douglas is a premiership quality player? Would he be missed if he wasn't playing? You said we were led by our younger players, how much did Douglas contribute to our top 4 push? And what success are you talking about? Our NAB cup win? Because we lost 2 of 3 finals after blowing another chance to play in a GF, if that's success we have a losers mentality,

Lyons and Riley have had more than one solid SANFL game. How do we make a decision on them if they don't play or do we do what we do with Martin and keep him on the list for 5 years for sub games?

As for Cassisi, he's played one game back. Be honest, do you think we would have played him by now? Ignore the Callinan comparison. Even though Callinan is underdone and not match fit or in form if he hasn't played for over a month, didn't he get his knock pretty early against Carlton and wasn't he shit against Geelong?

Yes Douglas is a quality player.
Again it should be Callinan and Petrenko you are shooting down. Douglas is a far better player then both of those and AFL players should be adaptable enough to be able to play in a variety of positions.

 

[Elite Crow]

Callinan didn't play against Geelong (rested) so its a little unfair to call his form shit in that game

I think Callinan was a big part of the success of our forward line last season (most efficient in the AFL) and i can understand why the coach is taking a calculated risk on him. Would you prefer our coach played it safe?

Most were complaining we had too many of the same type of mid sized marking players up forward and that Sando never made the tough calls. Now he made a tough call and dropped a seasoned veteran and ageing star who is fit and in reasonable nick the whining has intensified!

Its been a long time since our poor effort against Essendon and we must leave it all out on the park today and have a win.

I knew he did stuff all in that game But that just goes further to reinforce my point. He didn't play against Geelong, he got injured against Carlton and walks straight back in. Dropping an ageing star and replacing him with another ageing player isn't a tough call and if we were taking a risk on one underdone forward maybe, but Petrenko showed last week that he is also underdone. We are gambling on two players.

 

[King Elvis]

Whether Douglas (or anybody) is Premiership quality is irrelevant - the question is whether we have superior options playing in the SANFL.

 

[Mattrox]

Johncock is being moved out of defence because the club is grooming the next generation of defenders. Johncock is no longer in our best 3 defenders and concerns over his pace vs small forwards. He has been given a new role.

He is in the twilight of his career so we shouldn't really be surprised that he'll move in and out of the side.

 

[Elite Crow]

Whether Douglas (or anybody) is Premiership quality is irrelevant - the question is whether we have superior options playing in the SANFL.

Of course it's relevant. It helps you decide whether it's worth investing time in the younger players to see if they are going to be better. For example, you are not going to drop Danger or Thommo who are quality players who would walk in to any premiership side, to see what Lyons can do after a good run. But Douglas, who would struggle to get a game in recent premiership sides, you can afford to do without. If you don't give these players a go you will never know if they are superior options and you will have guys like Martin on your list for 5 years that still haven't played 20 games.

 

[King Elvis]

Agree completely.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Of course it's relevant. It helps you decide whether it's worth investing time in the younger players to see if they are going to be better. For example, you are not going to drop Danger or Thommo who are quality players who would walk in to any premiership side, to see what Lyons can do after a good run. But Douglas, who would struggle to get a game in recent premiership sides, you can afford to do without. If you don't give these players a go you will never know if they are superior options and you will have guys like Martin on your list for 5 years that still haven't played 20 games.

I think Douglas would be in most teams best 22. IMO Only full strength Collingwood he would miss ..

 

[Elite Crow]

I think Douglas would be in most teams best 22. IMO Only full strength Collingwood he would miss ..

Really? Which Sydney mid would miss? Hawks?

 

[King Elvis]

Who are our 4 weakest players then?

4 most unreliable?

4 who don't perform in big games?

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Really? Which Sydney mid would miss? Hawks?

I know Morton isn't a mid but I would have Douglas anyday, infact I reckon Douglas would suit Sydney if he decided to leave. With Sydneys ageing midfield, none overly quick, Dougo would slot in nicely.

As for the Hawks, especially this year, there depth is no longer overly strong. Douglas would have Puopolo, Savage covered IMO...

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Who are our 4 weakest players then?

4 most unreliable?

4 who don't perform in big games?

Unreliable. 1, Bernie Vince.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Hopefully Callinan earns his spot after Stiffy kicked 6 tonight...edit 7

He can kick 15 in the SANFL, he's still not a forward.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Because our players aren't being adequately conditioned and prepared culturally. The talent has been thereabouts for a decade plus.

What do we know? We know that for wins and losses versus flags won in the decade just gone we were an appalling, conspicuous outlier. We've seen changes of coach, changes of captain and after a total list turnover, a failure resembling our previous ones under yet another coach; losing a final at home that we were fancied to win, and then falling "gallantly" in a prelim we should never have found ourselves in.

Look at the competition record for the years 2000-2009:

http://forum.sportal.com.au/viewthread.aspx?t=68053

TEAM WINS LOSSES DRAWS POINTS F POINTS A PERCENTAGE POINTS Grand Finals Premierships
GEL 133 84 3 21642 19193 1148.76 538 3 2
ADL 129 91 0 21115 18669 1145.95 516 0 0
BRS 125 91 4 22544 20097 1131.88 508 4 3
PAD 126 92 2 21764 20278 1090.04 508 2 1
SYD 119 98 3 20664 18608 1117.5 482 2 1
ESS 114 103 3 22308 21600 1057.25 462 2 1
COL 113 107 0 21241 20554 1046.81 452 2 0
STK 110 107 3 20773 20473 1059.91 446 1 0
WCE 109 108 3 20732 21393 992.08 442 2 1
NME 109 108 3 20967 21738 964.52 442 0 0
HAW 105 115 0 20195 21051 971.08 420 1 1
WBD 102 114 4 22623 23142 990.23 416 0 0
MEL 92 127 1 20504 22530 923.16 370 1 0
FRE 92 128 0 19714 21717 919.75 368 0 0
RIC 84 133 3 19450 22537 869.19 342 0 0
CAR 81 137 2 20730 23390 913.63 328 0 0

This needs its own thread. Seriously. Can you start one?

 

[Slippery Pete]

People are sick of the same shit, and they already know how it ends.

Like a porno?

And not even a good one.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Didn't consider that to be a rant - was bloody informative; and pretty damning.

It's insane to see it laid out so clearly like that; the second most dominant team of a decade, with absolutely nothing to show for it; that's brutal.

The most damning part is that if you take the stats from 2007 onwards, we are still in the top 4 or 5 - and of those teams, again, we are the only team not to have either won a flag or played in two Grand Finals. They showed this stat on one of the footy shows last week.

So even discounting the incredible win/loss ratios of 05 and 06, we're still behind the eight-ball.

Amazing really.

 

[Elite Crow]

I know Morton isn't a mid but I would have Douglas anyday, infact I reckon Douglas would suit Sydney if he decided to leave. With Sydneys ageing midfield, none overly quick, Dougo would slot in nicely.

As for the Hawks, especially this year, there depth is no longer overly strong. Douglas would have Puopolo, Savage covered IMO...

Morton plays a third tall forward, not even in the same ballpark and scraped into their finals side, prior to that he was a borderline selection.
Name one Sydney mid that Douglas would be playing in front of.

Savage is a fringe player who was dropped this week.
Puopolo is their swing small man, can play as the small crumbing forward or defender. He's not a mid. If your talking of playing Douggie instead of Petrenko then that's a different story. But the fact those are the players you came up with and you are referring to depth players says alot about Douggie.

You can repeat the exercise for West Coast and Freo and he would struggle to break into it. Brad Ebert struggled at West Coast and he's comfortably ahead of Douggie.

Facts are if we are to improve our midfield someone has to go.

 

[Elite Crow]

One of the 5AA crew said they were speaking with a Crows official this week and that Porps needed a big game game as he hadn't played a good game for ages, now did this official watch the Freo and Hawks finals? If the comment it true then they've obviously got different standards for different players.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Johncock is being moved out of defence because the club is grooming the next generation of defenders. Johncock is no longer in our best 3 defenders and concerns over his pace vs small forwards. He has been given a new role.

He is in the twilight of his career so we shouldn't really be surprised that he'll move in and out of the side.

Like Reilly?

Reilly's midfield ineptness took Johncock's spot.

 

[Mattrox]

And all of this contributed to why Craig got the sack.....

I'd say that with a new head coach we really need evaluate new data rather than old.

I'd put a lot of it down to game day coaching and game plan. The game plan was one dimensional and there was no flexibility when a team started to beat the game plan tactically.

And the player match ups sometimes didn't work and no changes were made. Players were some how expected to execute the game plan when they were matched against a player that would beat them comprehensively.

That sort of coaching doesn't stand up in finals.


Last year, all season posters were giving reasons why we weren't in a premiership window and why we were not real contenders. So to look upon last years finals scathingly is quite premature.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

One of the 5AA crew said they were speaking with a Crows official this week and that Porps needed a big game game as he hadn't played a good game for ages, now did this official watch the Freo and Hawks finals? If the comment it true then they've obviously got different standards for different players.

Let's not beat around the bush.

The problem is and has been for many many years that the club isn't able to tell the difference between good players and average players.

We celebrate blokes like Stevens, Doughty and Shirley and elevate them to leadership groups. They are never dropped.

In 97/98 these McCartney, Standfield, Tregenza, Ormond-Allen equivalents would have played some/a lot SANFL football to make way for kids like Vardy, Goodwin, Johnson, Edwards. None of whom were high drafted picks or considered rare talents.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Who are our 4 weakest players then?

4 most unreliable?

4 who don't perform in big games?

depends on your timeline ...but in most recent times
You also need to factor in positions that sometimes can create quiet games

4 most unreliable overall - including during games
Petrenko
Jaensch
Jenkins
Henderson

4 who don't perform in big games
Can't name as really sample size too small with this list