Changes for next year, Round 1

[Calcium Man]

There will be the inevitable surgeries and managed older players, but OMG that's frightening.

Rance is going to be hell-bent on returning to the GF in 2020. You need players like him motivating others to get back to the big dance, because of his misfortune this year. Also, he's pretty handy.

Going by Cotch’s demeanor today, don’t know if they need motivating. You can tell they don’t think this journey is over yet.

 

[tiger_tough]

102 goals 110 behinds is what we conceded in our 12 game winning streak post bye. So 8.75 goals and 9.16 behinds. Teams averaged 61 points against us in that period when the backline was together and settled the whole way I think.

177 goals 131 behinds is what we scored. 14.75 goals and more or less 11 behinds. We averaged 99 points for to show scoring conditions were not especially difficult on the whole.

In 2018 with Rance in the backline in 24 matches teams scored 256.199 against us, about 72 points on average.

In 2017 with Rance there the team averaged conceding similar in the low 70's.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where I am going with this is to ask has the structure of the backline worked better in 2019 without Rance once it was fully stocked from round 15 onwards? And if so, why would that be?

I personally don't think it has to do with Rance the player. I think the issue is Rance the backline general, where it might have been a little bit all about him. So my submission would be that whoever was leading that backline in Rance's absence, presumably Astbury, should continue to do so. And Rance should play a role really no more prominent in the structure and chain of command than Vlastuin or Grimes did this year.

But in for me Rance(of course) Stack(of course) and any of Graham, Ross, CCJ, Balta, Naish, and any ready made recruit/s.

Out Ellis, and after that it gets tougher.

Curve ball trade deal: Only if the players are comfortable with this...go to GCS and offer Rance, Macintosh, maybe even Markov or Moore if they want them, along with Ellis of course. The immediate influx of hardened solid senior players and leadership is what they desperately need. And the fact all of those players come from one successful club should be helpful to them as well. In return we want the bloke who won the GF sprint yesterday - King, and/or another future gun. Use draft picks to equalise the deal.

Rance should theoretically love it, he is just what they need, high profile, high quality, leadership and he has the perfect beach boy looks to suit the Gold Coast, and can get a huge pay packet. Macintosh can get a decent wedge as well.

We benefit by starting to stagger the transition between Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury, Edwards, Martin, Houli and the next group of quality players who lead the team. We clear some nice cap space to help with retention of all our good youngsters.

Gold Coast benefit from getting something meaningful into their club for the inevitable loss of one of these young guns, not just more high end draft picks.

The young gun benefits from coming to a brilliant club and fitting comfortably into the overall plan for us.

Is that you Mr magic?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Scoring is just down across the board. Lowest scoring year in a long time.

So, everyone is unanimously in favour of trading Rance then, hehehe.

This is the thing, post bye when we had our current backline settled, opponents, including a good spectrum of weak and strong teams, leaning towards stronger due to the 3 finals, averaged less than we conceded with Rance in the team. So you say this is due to scoring being down across the board....but in that same period we averaged comfortably more than we ever did during the period Rance was in the team.

It doesn't mean for certain our defence is weakened by the return of Rance, but it does suggest if things went back to the way they were with the whole defence revolving around him then you might expect a weaker performance, based only on that comparison. OK, other things altered this season, ultimately fielding two ruckmen often during this period in question, which means they can get back more often to help while our extra tall forward pushes up the ground to provide a target down the line for defenders under pressure.

Rance almost certainly won't be traded, I accept that. There will be injuries and because Balta and Garthwaite don't look quite ready, we will need him. I would say however that the chain of command should not alter from the current setup, given it has worked so well. I used to analyse cricket very carefully for betting purposes. One thing I noticed was some teams seemed to perform better without a player rated by the market as their best player. Pietersen is the best example I can think of. And it was no illusion, their odds were a good deal better with him missing but their performance was marginally worse on a carefully adjusted basis. Franklin at Hawthorn was a clear example in AFL and look what happened when they let him go...

You will never go too far wrong trading out players the market overrates and trading in players it underrates. We have got very good at the latter....sooner or later our moment of truth will arrive with the former and I am not saying this is certainly the answer on this occasion, but we will need to do some creative things if we want to remain strong past about 2 more seasons.

 

[THE_GUN]

B: Grimes Astbury Rance
HB: Houli Vlastuin Stack
C: Pickett Prestia Caddy
HF: Rioli Lynch Edwards
F: Castagna Riewoldt Bolton
R: Nankervis Cotchin Martin
INT: Soldo Broad Graham Lambert
EMG: Ross Baker CCJ RCD

Good Luck Carlton and the rest of the comp

2 x premiership players cant even make the team for round 1
Short & Baker

 

[OhhDeledio]

i think our absolute best 22 right now at any stage next year would be

FB: Broad - Rance - Grimes
HB: Vlastuin - Astbury - Houli
C: Caddy - Prestia - Edwards
HF: Higgins - Lynch - Bolton
FF: Rioli - Riewoldt - Castagna
R: Nankervis - Cotchin - Martin
I: Soldo - Pickett - Stack - Lambert - Graham - Ross - Short - Baker - Menadue - RCD - Chol - Balta - CCJ - Kmac

take your pick from the bench. gonna be real competitive for spots next year because our depth is that good. the next best 8 or 9 players after the 22 would be stiff not to be playing. also that is one sexy backline

 

[guruisatiger]

102 goals 110 behinds is what we conceded in our 12 game winning streak post bye. So 8.75 goals and 9.16 behinds. Teams averaged 61 points against us in that period when the backline was together and settled the whole way I think.

177 goals 131 behinds is what we scored. 14.75 goals and more or less 11 behinds. We averaged 99 points for to show scoring conditions were not especially difficult on the whole.

In 2018 with Rance in the backline in 24 matches teams scored 256.199 against us, about 72 points on average.

In 2017 with Rance there the team averaged conceding similar in the low 70's.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where I am going with this is to ask has the structure of the backline worked better in 2019 without Rance once it was fully stocked from round 15 onwards? And if so, why would that be?

I personally don't think it has to do with Rance the player. I think the issue is Rance the backline general, where it might have been a little bit all about him. So my submission would be that whoever was leading that backline in Rance's absence, presumably Astbury, should continue to do so. And Rance should play a role really no more prominent in the structure and chain of command than Vlastuin or Grimes did this year.

But in for me Rance(of course) Stack(of course) and any of Graham, Ross, CCJ, Balta, Naish, and any ready made recruit/s.

Out Ellis, and after that it gets tougher.

Curve ball trade deal: Only if the players are comfortable with this...go to GCS and offer Rance, Macintosh, maybe even Markov or Moore if they want them, along with Ellis of course. The immediate influx of hardened solid senior players and leadership is what they desperately need. And the fact all of those players come from one successful club should be helpful to them as well. In return we want the bloke who won the GF sprint yesterday - King, and/or another future gun. Use draft picks to equalise the deal.

Rance should theoretically love it, he is just what they need, high profile, high quality, leadership and he has the perfect beach boy looks to suit the Gold Coast, and can get a huge pay packet. Macintosh can get a decent wedge as well.

We benefit by starting to stagger the transition between Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury, Edwards, Martin, Houli and the next group of quality players who lead the team. We clear some nice cap space to help with retention of all our good youngsters.

Gold Coast benefit from getting something meaningful into their club for the inevitable loss of one of these young guns, not just more high end draft picks.

The young gun benefits from coming to a brilliant club and fitting comfortably into the overall plan for us.

Are you ****ing serious???
You want to trade rance ??
Are you ****ing serious?
Are you ****ing serious?
Really seriously, truly honestly
You want to trade rance?????
Don't know what drugs you are on
But what ever they are please stop taking them

 

[guruisatiger]

I am not suggesting trading him against his will, nor anyone else for that matter. If he wants to stay you keep him, end of. But let's say Rance was open to the move...I think it is less damaging to stagger the loss of the leaders and lose them one at a time rather than get to about 2022 and you might be looking at about 5 major players finishing up over a 1-2 year span. Not suggesting anyone should be forced out early but there should be constant dialogue with them from now to monitor their thoughts about what they want to do, with a view to possibly managing the transition as smoothly as possible. Rance could probably get a good 3-4 year deal at GCS on over a million per year, and should certainly attract something of strong value in return. Wait another year or two and those dynamics change, so it is always worthy of consideration while there is A) currency and B) proof the team can function at a high level without him.

If he wants to stay ???
Of course he wants to stay
Did you see him yesterday celebrating with the boys
Did you see him the week b4 at ikon park celebrating with the boys
Did you see him Astbury and grimes sitting in the middle of the mcg
Wow ,, if he wants to stay ?????

 

[Meteoric Rise]

If he wants to stay ???
Of course he wants to stay
Did you see him yesterday celebrating with the boys
Did you see him the week b4 at ikon park celebrating with the boys
Did you see him Astbury and grimes sitting in the middle of the mcg
Wow ,, if he wants to stay ?????

OK the trade Rance faction seems to be gathering strong momentum. Welcome aboard Guru!

Talk about reactionary.

 

[guruisatiger]

OK the trade Rance faction seems to be gathering strong momentum. Welcome aboard Guru!

Talk about reactionary.

Your the one that said trade rance not me

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Your the one that said trade rance not me

Guru there is a clear undertone in your posts on the matter that says “I’m aboard!” And now you have added an overtone to that.

 

[_RT_]

2 x premiership players cant even make the team for round 1
Short & Baker

Won't envy the selection committee one bit next season. Trying to fit 30 into 22 will be bloody tough.

 

[Walt Kowalski]

B: Grimes Astbury Rance
HB: Houli Vlastuin Stack
C: Pickett Prestia Caddy
HF: Rioli Lynch Edwards
F: Castagna Riewoldt Bolton
R: Nankervis Cotchin Martin
INT: Soldo Broad Graham Lambert
EMG: Ross Baker CCJ RCD

Good Luck Carlton and the rest of the comp

Pickett looked like a clearance weapon. His inclusion probably lets us play Martin more and more in the fwd line.

 

[The Goon]

B: Grimes Astbury Rance
HB: Houli Vlastuin Stack
C: Pickett Prestia Caddy
HF: Rioli Lynch Edwards
F: Castagna Riewoldt Bolton
R: Nankervis Cotchin Martin
INT: Soldo Broad Graham Lambert
EMG: Ross Baker CCJ RCD

Good Luck Carlton and the rest of the comp

Jesus that’s a terrifying side!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

This is like saying we averaged:

2017: 91 points per game
2018: 97 points per game
2019: 86 points per game

So we’re better off with Butler in the team than Lynch. Awful logic

 

[roacheee]

o.p forgets 666

 

[RunningBounce]

B: Grimes Astbury Rance
HB: Houli Vlastuin Stack
C: Pickett Prestia Caddy
HF: Rioli Lynch Edwards
F: Castagna Riewoldt Bolton
R: Nankervis Cotchin Martin
INT: Soldo Broad Graham Lambert
EMG: Ross Baker CCJ RCD

Good Luck Carlton and the rest of the comp

The emergencies would probably start on the ground for 13 or 14 other clubs. And Naish was arguably better than those four. KMac, Butler, Higgins all AFL-level... Bloody exciting times!

 

[mopsy]

Again sometimes numbers lie.Rance straight up is a huge addition to the back half he gives us so much flexability plenty of cover during games allows Grimes who has been great to fight more in his weight division.
The real test for the club is to keep improving and evolving and if anyone thinks Rance doesnt allow us to do that they are kidding themselves

Next yr there could and probably will be 5 or so changes to the 22 who won the flag.
Imo the following have to be played and developed and are very much in the running to improve us just with further development

Rance is a no brainer. As is Jack Graham, Jack Ross is a type we are screaming out for, Noah Balta will need games Sydney Stack just gives us that harder edge. Theres 5 who i think should be regulars. I for one fully expect the team to evolve and by evolving improve.

 

[Stars align]

The emergencies would probably start on the ground for 13 or 14 other clubs. And Naish was arguably better than those four. KMac, Butler, Higgins all AFL-level... Bloody exciting times!

In hindsight the decision to drop caddy back to the ressies was a masterstroke. He had the interrupted pre season which didn't help but I reckon the coaches were of the belief that they knew Dusty would be spending way more time forward so with him Jack and Tom to go along with small brigade caddy needed to be redeployed and he offers so much as a genuine target coming out from the back half is a sweet kick so delivers it well into 50 sees the game really well and probably the best bit has some genuine nastiness in him
Thought he was very good on Saturday and definitely has a few genuine strings to his bow

 

[SunshineBoy]

When is fixture out for next year? Will be interesting to see if we get lots of Saturday games.

Wankley needs to formalise the new rules

 

[Caveman68]

102 goals 110 behinds is what we conceded in our 12 game winning streak post bye. So 8.75 goals and 9.16 behinds. Teams averaged 61 points against us in that period when the backline was together and settled the whole way I think.

177 goals 131 behinds is what we scored. 14.75 goals and more or less 11 behinds. We averaged 99 points for to show scoring conditions were not especially difficult on the whole.

In 2018 with Rance in the backline in 24 matches teams scored 256.199 against us, about 72 points on average.

In 2017 with Rance there the team averaged conceding similar in the low 70's.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where I am going with this is to ask has the structure of the backline worked better in 2019 without Rance once it was fully stocked from round 15 onwards? And if so, why would that be?

I personally don't think it has to do with Rance the player. I think the issue is Rance the backline general, where it might have been a little bit all about him. So my submission would be that whoever was leading that backline in Rance's absence, presumably Astbury, should continue to do so. And Rance should play a role really no more prominent in the structure and chain of command than Vlastuin or Grimes did this year.

But in for me Rance(of course) Stack(of course) and any of Graham, Ross, CCJ, Balta, Naish, and any ready made recruit/s.

Out Ellis, and after that it gets tougher.

Curve ball trade deal: Only if the players are comfortable with this...go to GCS and offer Rance, Macintosh, maybe even Markov or Moore if they want them, along with Ellis of course. The immediate influx of hardened solid senior players and leadership is what they desperately need. And the fact all of those players come from one successful club should be helpful to them as well. In return we want the bloke who won the GF sprint yesterday - King, and/or another future gun. Use draft picks to equalise the deal.

Rance should theoretically love it, he is just what they need, high profile, high quality, leadership and he has the perfect beach boy looks to suit the Gold Coast, and can get a huge pay packet. Macintosh can get a decent wedge as well.

We benefit by starting to stagger the transition between Rance, Cotchin, Riewoldt, Astbury, Edwards, Martin, Houli and the next group of quality players who lead the team. We clear some nice cap space to help with retention of all our good youngsters.

Gold Coast benefit from getting something meaningful into their club for the inevitable loss of one of these young guns, not just more high end draft picks.

The young gun benefits from coming to a brilliant club and fitting comfortably into the overall plan for us.

Out Rance??? And you were going so well.

 

[Tony Harrison]

Having Rance back will be extra motivation for the team to get him another flag after sitting this one out.

 

[living_in_syd]

Play our VFL team 1-15 and then bring in the team 15 onwards fresh for finals again

 

[roacheee]

2 x premiership players cant even make the team for round 1
Short & Baker

+ mcintosh, towner, butler, ellis
+ grigg

 

[Tiger84]

With the GOAT coming back next year and Vlastuin regularly playing the +1, I think maybe we could move nick into ellis spot as a defensive wingman and caddy becomes the offensive wingman.. Think it would be a good spot for nick as he uses the ball beautifuly, is strong over head for the get out kick and can still be that intercept mark in defence from the wing

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This is like saying we averaged:

2017: 91 points per game
2018: 97 points per game
2019: 86 points per game

So we’re better off with Butler in the team than Lynch. Awful logic

If the logic in my argument is so bad(and to be honest it is far from perfect,) then you should have little trouble finding fault in the actual logic I used. Instead you created a deeply flawed “analogy,” which isn’t in the slightest analogous in order to discredit my finding. In fact in my original post I did a better job of pointing out the limitations to my own findings than you have done here, which renders your post pointless as well as flawed. I would welcome you starting again and dissecting my argument on its merits.