Prediction Changes for R21 v Adelaide

[chiwigi]

If it comes down to percentage, we're absolutely screwed.

The final round of 2017 - when Sydney and Port needed big wins to keep their faint top 4 hopes alive - proved how easily teams can run up the score if they have an incentive to do so. Sydney played first and won by over 100. We then played and also won by over 100 to leapfrog them. Neither ended up making the top 4 but it illustrated how easy it is for good teams to smash bad teams if they want to.

So guess who Sydney play in R23? That's right, the Gold Coast SUNS. They will win by whatever they need to win by to secure top 4.

Our best chances in order:

1) Melbourne lose to West Coast and Geelong
2) Sydney lose to St Kilda
3) We beat the Bulldogs (would potentially help if they were already locked in for top 2 and had nothing to play for)

If we did beat the Bulldogs, I think that would mean we'd play them first week of the finals and then in the GF if we made it!
That's a pretty epic series!

 

[Grave Danger]

The final round of 2017 - when Sydney and Port needed big wins to keep their faint top 4 hopes alive - proved how easily teams can run up the score if they have an incentive to do so. Sydney played first and won by over 100. We then played and also won by over 100 to leapfrog them. Neither ended up making the top 4 but it illustrated how easy it is for good teams to smash bad teams if they want to.

Sliding doors moment that was; both teams also needed Richmond to lose to St Kilda on the Sunday - they didn't and a dynasty was soon to begin...

 

[strath39]

Lienart for SPP, With Bonner moving up foward.

 

[Willsy10]

Ideally we win out from here but you’d like decent percentage in case we don’t.

I think the saints will push the swans this weekend, so should be a good opportunity for us to get a good break on them percentage wise.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself though as we just need to make sure we win first but if we are 5 or 6 goals up in the 3rd quarter and then cruise to 4-5 goal win when we could’ve easily put the foot down and got a 10 goal win I’ll be disappointed.


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[Sneeky]

Does anyone know if the crows are have to quarantine for two days too, or just us?

 

[robbo1981]

Does anyone know if the crows are have to quarantine for two days too, or just us?

They do but started a day early so finish a day earlier than us.

 

[Jonts]

You raise an interesting point.
I can see it playing out this way.

Round 23
Fri:
Geelong(2) vs Melbourne(5)

Sat:
Port (4) vs Bulldogs (1)
St Kilda (12) vs Dockers (8)
Sydney (5) vs Suns (-)
Brisbane(6) vs Eagles(7)
Carlton(12) Vs Giants(9)

Sun:
Essendon(10) vs Collingwood(-)
Richmond (11) vs Hawthorn (-)
Adelaide(-) vs North Melbourne(-)

No need for non finalists to on the Sunday since the bye

 

[Coobk001]

You raise an interesting point.
I can see it playing out this way.

Round 23
Fri:
Geelong(2) vs Melbourne(5)

Sat:
Port (4) vs Bulldogs (1)
St Kilda (12) vs Dockers (8)
Sydney (5) vs Suns (-)
Brisbane(6) vs Eagles(7)
Carlton(12) Vs Giants(9)

Sun:
Essendon(10) vs Collingwood(-)
Richmond (11) vs Hawthorn (-)
Adelaide(-) vs North Melbourne(-)

Can't see Port V Dogs copping a Saturday 'day' slot. We'll get a Saturday night slot IMO.

 

[snozulu]

Clurey was almost BOG last time we played the Crows. Is the best Walker matchup.

Jonas was putrid again. The end is near for him. He is in the early 2021 Hartlett zone - where the end has come very quickly.

I think he knows it too

 

[MrChow]

I think he knows it too

Perhaps Jonas should do the self sacrificing team thing, and crunch Bontempelli in the last round to take him out for finals…




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[Ateen7tee]

Can't see Port V Dogs copping a Saturday 'day' slot. We'll get a Saturday night slot IMO.

Not if it's played in Ballarat. Pretty sure all Ballarat games have been day games...

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

There are 3 Marvel games in Round 23 and the other 2 are Saints vs Freo and Carlton vs GWS.

We'll definitely be on Friday Night that round.

 

[Scholz Supremacy]

Doing ladder predictor, I had Sydney winning their last 3 and us losing to the Bulldogs but we still finished 4th.

It will all come down to percentage. We absolutely have to gain percentage against Adelaide and Carlton. But it'd be very nice if St Kilda or North could somehow knock off Sydney or at least not lose to them by much.

 

[Coobk001]

Doing ladder predictor, I had Sydney winning their last 3 and us losing to the Bulldogs but we still finished 4th.

It will all come down to percentage. We absolutely have to gain percentage against Adelaide and Carlton. But it'd be very nice if St Kilda or North could somehow knock off Sydney or at least not lose to them by much.

While it remains mathematically possible, we can still dream....

 

[Gryllis]

Jonas talking up Robbie looking good in his presser today. Perhaps the captain has some inside goss and is trying to get in with the team news before Ken tells the opposition tomorrow.

 

[Grave Danger]

Jonas talking up Robbie looking good in his presser today. Perhaps the captain has some inside goss and is trying to get in with the team news before Ken tells the opposition tomorrow.

Bassett all but confirmed Robbie will be back on 5aark just now.

 

[davesnothere]

Suspect it might be Ladhams for Robbie.
That would be a shame. Apparently none of MG, Ladhams or Marshall own a spot in the forward line at present according to Bass. Marshall has been good for the past 2 weeks.
MG will be a absolute gun.
Ladhams is going to be pretty hard done by.

 

[RossFC]

IN: Gray, Lienert
OUT: Woodcock, Byrne-Jones

SPP sub

 

[bomberclifford]

If they drop Pisty, I’m going to rampage.

 

[chachi11]

Robbie❤❤

 

[robbo1981]

If it's going to be wet a tall will definitely come out my preference would be Marshall at this stage.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

We can't carry 4 talls and Robbie. He's just too much of a defensive liability these days.

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[Ports1870]

On form Peps is the first to go, but I don’t think Gray for peps works, as Peps number one attribute is probably his aggressiveness and defensive attributes.
As much as I love Robbie, he doesn’t provide anything defensively anymore so I think he has to go for a tall.
Maybe bring him on as a sub, imagine Robbie coming on in the second half and kicking four against the crows.

 

[all seeing eye]

Would they punt on Gray as sub. May backfire in the case of an early injury.

 

[Astronema]

If Gray is selected I will be very excited. He absolutely transforms this team whether he is in the forward 50 or centre square, and if he can get match fit for the bulldogs game/finals we are significantly more likely to win those games IMO.