Prediction Changes for Saints

[NomadPie]

Good to see Langdon will be available for selection. I think we have missed him down back the last few weeks. His ability to peel off his man and help kill other contest is very underrated. Pendes comes straight back in, Moores replacement will be interesting. If Reid is good to go then he probably comes in but i'd be happy to see him replaced with a small like Fasolo or Daicos.

Outs - Appleby, Moore, Crocker
Ins - Langdon, Pendlebury, Fasolo

Everygame is big nowadays but geez if we lose this we are going to make finals very difficult.

Pies by 29

 

[jmac70]

Good to see Langdon will be available for selection. I think we have missed him down back the last few weeks. His ability to peel off his man and help kill other contest is very underrated. Pendes comes straight back in, Moores replacement will be interesting. If Reid is good to go then he probably comes in but i'd be happy to see him replaced with a small like Fasolo or Daicos.

Outs - Appleby, Moore, Crocker
Ins - Langdon, Pendlebury, Fasolo

Everygame is big nowadays but geez if we lose this we are going to make finals very difficult.

Pies by 29

I reckon this is on the money.

 

[Scodog10]

What did he actually add to the side against Geelong?

Lots of the footy but zero impact!

To preempt the following musings I expect Mayne will survive the axe.

With that out of the way anyone that gave him a pass on that performance has to be a stats buff! On face value kicks, marks, handballs and tackles that’d be in the best 5-10 matches of his career. I mean 25 possessions, 10 marks and 9 tackles is a statistically strong game. Could you imagine the reaction if Daicos or Sier put up those numbers? Posters on here would be frothing! It’s when you scratch below the surface that you reveal a truer picture of his performance. Metres gained 150, I50’s 0 and a heat map that was almost purely in one pocket of the ground. My read is that Geelong let him have that space and we fed him the ball in transition, but he did nothing with it. Like the team last year it was useless stat padding.

Again I’m sure it’ll be easy enough to sit back and consider it as me unwilling to acknowledge a good performance from a guy I’ve heavily maligned. To counter that I offer this. We lost that match in the first half because of our go slow in transition. It was an up and down game and we were moving it well until we got outside D75 and couldn’t penetrate I50. Of Mayne’s 25 possessions 13 came in that area of the ground between HB and wing and he averaged just 6 metres gained for the match. In the second half we had 30 of our 46 I50’s and 15 of our 21 SOG (5 more than Geelong) so something changed. He has the smarts to find the ball when not asked to be a mindless pressure forward, but unfortunately it points to him as a culprit of our poor ball movement in the first half. It was a very VFL type performance for anyone that’s watched our VFL lineup since Tapping left. I regularly call Smith out for similar footy and for a 10 year veteran it’s extremely frustrating.

I’m normally of the opinion that one player makes no difference to the result overall, however if our full strength midfield of 2018 is fit (which it will be if Pendles and Phillips get up) it’ll be a black mark against the match committee if Mayne is amongst that group, IMO.

On selection and you have to go with McLarty to replace Moore unless you know Carlisle is out. What’ll happen is St Kilda will choke up our ball movement on a ground we’re unfamiliar with, we then start bombing it more often with shallower entries, Cox is held by Brown and Carlisle comes in over the top because he’s got no opponent to be accountable to. You need to at least challenge the opposition defensive line and a small forward group doesn’t do that, IMO.

Edit: I don’t expect a debutant this week. I have a feeling it would have been announced already to deflect a little from the injuries and Moore’s contract.

 

[CFC2010]

To preempt the following musings I expect Mayne will survive the axe.

With that out of the way anyone that gave him a pass on that performance has to be a stats buff! On face value kicks, marks, handballs and tackles that’d be in the best 5-10 matches of his career. I mean 25 possessions, 10 marks and 9 tackles is a statistically strong game. Could you imagine the reaction if Daicos or Sier put up those numbers? Posters on here would be frothing! It’s when you scratch below the surface that you reveal a truer picture of his performance. Metres gained 150, I50’s 0 and a heat map that was almost purely in one pocket of the ground. My read is that Geelong let him have that space and we fed him the ball in transition, but he did nothing with it. Like the team last year it was useless stat padding.

Again I’m sure it’ll be easy enough to sit back and consider it as me unwilling to acknowledge a good performance from a guy I’ve heavily maligned. To counter that I offer this. We lost that match in the first half because of our go slow in transition. It was an up and down game and we were moving it well until we got outside D75 and couldn’t penetrate I50. Of Mayne’s 25 possessions 13 came in that area of the ground between HB and wing and he averaged just 6 metres gained for the match. In the second half we had 30 of our 46 I50’s and 15 of our 21 SOG (5 more than Geelong) so something changed. He has the smarts to find the ball when not asked to be a mindless pressure forward, but unfortunately it points to him as a culprit of our poor ball movement in the first half. It was a very VFL type performance for anyone that’s watched our VFL lineup since Tapping left. I regularly call Smith out for similar footy and for a 10 year veteran it’s extremely frustrating.

I’m normally of the opinion that one player makes no difference to the result overall, however if our full strength midfield of 2018 is fit (which it will be if Pendles and Phillips get up) it’ll be a black mark against the match committee if Mayne is amongst that group, IMO.

I watched the last quarter last night (missed it Sunday) and I thought Mayne was one of our best.
I wasn't aware until last night that score board pressure is what cost us in that game and especially that quarter
I wont even try to analyse the first quarter shemozzle.

If you're are looking for a recruit to critique maybe look at Wells and his two easy misses.
He is paid to score those goals and he failed.

Do I want Mayne in the team NO but his game was solid and that's all you can ask of the bloke.

So what is he goes the safe kick or handball........at least he knows his limitations and metres gained isn't what he is in the team for.

 

[Scodog10]

I watched the last quarter last night (missed it Sunday) and I thought Mayne was one of our best.
I wasn't aware until last night that score board pressure is what cost us in that game and especially that quarter
I wont even try to analyse the first quarter shemozzle.

If you're are looking for a recruit to critique maybe look at Wells and his two easy misses.
He is paid to score those goals and he failed.

Do I want Mayne in the team NO but his game was solid and that's all you can ask of the bloke.

So what is he goes the safe kick or handball........at least he knows his limitations and metres gained isn't what he is in the team for.

Sorry CFC, but you wasted your time watching that. The game was smoked as soon as Wells missed the dribble goal. Like Mayne’s game when the result was on the line the last 20 minutes was padding.

The safe option has held us back for years and cost us the game along with our poor kicking for goal. It’s why the likes of Armstrong and Smith are so maligned. The go slow was in the first half which we lost by 20 points breakeven in that half and the scoreboard pressure is there and we probably win as the game opens up because we had the momentum for most of the second half.

In terms of Wells he was rusty, but what did we expect of a 33yp that had played over 500 minutes of VFL footy? We left him out of the line up 2 weeks too long because if he’d rolled out v Richmond I’d put my account on him performing better than he did on Sunday!

 

[CFC2010]

Sorry CFC, but you wasted your time watching that. The game was smoked as soon as Wells missed the dribble goal. Like Mayne’s game when the result was on the line the last 20 minutes was padding.

In terms of Wells he was rusty, but what did we expect of a 33yp that had played over 500 minutes of VFL footy? We left him out of the line up 2 weeks too long because if he’d rolled out v Richmond I’d put my account on him performing better than he did on Sunday!

I actually expected......no demanded that he kick that dribble and a few minutes later that set shot. Rust on no rust.

Unfortunately Mayne will get another game......hopefully Bucks has seen the light with Crocker. I counted 5 times in the last quarter he was out marked and
totally out of position for a forward.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

If mayne and Crocker stay in, it proves Bucks' 'attitude over ability' approach to selection, and puts into question his place on the selection committee.

Nathan still just doesn't seem to get some things... like tagging gun mids, and excluding players who make us worse.

Mayne makes us slower, our ball movement static and provides zero drive and negligible threat on goal.

Faz, Daicos, McLarty, Wills and Sier would all be upgrades on Crocker.

No, it proves nothing, other than you and the Selection Committee view things differently

 

[Scodog10]

I actually expected......no demanded that he kick that dribble and a few minutes later that set shot. Rust on no rust.

Unfortunately Mayne will get another game......hopefully Bucks has seen the light with Crocker. I counted 5 times in the last quarter he was out marked and
totally out of position for a forward.

I understand that with Wells, but it’s not quite as black and white for me. If he’s match hardened at that level he gets an extra step or two of separation on the dribble gets closer and kicks it. The game completely changes from there. It’s best not to ponder though because the possibilities are endless, but I assume we’re both in agreement that he’d have been better with a couple of senior games under his belt.

Crocker has to be an out given he got a late reprieve v Geelong and didn’t take his chance.

I could cop the getting out marked and outgunned because Stewart, Taylor and Kolo is a very solid aerial mix plus the lack of support, but my knock is his complete and utter lack of pace. Only Grundy would be slower from the team that took the field on Sunday and if I were a betting man I’d say it’s why he slipped in the draft. To make it to a good standard with that pace in the modern game you have to be a tall or super smart at ground level (ala Dids), which he is not. I’m not saying he won’t/ can’t make it, but rather to a good standard. I’d be shocked if he’s ever better than bottom half best 22. Think Macaffer or Greenwood.

Considering I’m involved now I might as well go at the changes.

In: Pendles and Langdon
Out: Crocker and Moore

With Pendles addition the mids get shuffled with Adams and Mayne the two to be moved around (even though I’d use Sidebottom more forward myself) and with Langdon back Varcoe goes forward.

What I would do though is.

In: Pendles, Langdon, McLarty and Fasolo
Out: Crocker, Mayne, Appleby and Moore.

Pendles as above with Steele rolling forward, Langdon replaces Appleby with Varcoe remaining in defense, McLarty in as the fwd/ ruck with Cox playing deeper to isolate Brown closer to goal (Brown’s a scragger so with the imminent crackdown I want him closer to goal) and Fasolo for Mayne.

 

[CFC2010]

What I would do though is.

In: Pendles, Langdon, McLarty and Fasolo
Out: Crocker, Mayne, Appleby and Moore.

Pendles as above with Steele rolling forward, Langdon replaces Appleby with Varcoe remaining in defense, McLarty in as the fwd/ ruck with Cox playing deeper to isolate Brown closer to goal (Brown’s a scragger so with the imminent crackdown I want him closer to goal) and Fasolo for Mayne.

I prefer this one to be honest but we know it wont happen.

 

[Bad Horse]

I prefer this one to be honest but we know it wont happen.

If Mayne is dropped I will walk naked down Swanston street, attach myself to a carriage and haul tourists for the rest of my days.

 

[CFC2010]

If Mayne is dropped I will walk naked down Swanston street, attach myself to a carriage and haul tourists for the rest of my days.

I thought that's what you did anyway B H.......

 

[iGNITER]

Would love to see them bring in both Sier and Wills. Start them in the middle with Pendlebury.

 

[Scodog10]

Would love to see them bring in both Sier and Wills. Start them in the middle with Pendlebury.

The Saints mids aren’t quick, but I think they’d have us covered on the spread running backwards if we did that. The quickest of the three would be Sier and he’d be below average at best, IMO.

 

[iGNITER]

The Saints mids aren’t quick, but I think they’d have us covered on the spread running backwards if we did that. The quickest of the three would be Sier and he’d be below average at best, IMO.

Fair call. Just excited to see them come in when ready.

 

[Unknown Identity]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people dropping Appleby.

He has improved each game and his defensive efforts are top notch, personally i would like to see more of him.

I want to see a combination of Pendles/Fas/McLarty/Sier as the inclusions.
Sier if Pendles doesn't get up.

Crocker, Brown, Mayne the likely outs with Phillips a potential out if he's not 100% after his concussion.

 

[Scodog10]

Fair call. Just excited to see them come in when ready.

To be brutally honest there isn’t room for both Wills and Sier in the senior line up until post Pendles (hopefully five years time).

As it stands Wills at 25 on Sunday with 6 games under his belt and his injury history may be hard pressed winning another contract let alone breaking into a midfield containing Pendles, Wells, Adams, Steele, Treloar and Phillips. We’re already seeing a couple of those guys squeezed out and JDG after Crisp was shunted aside last year.

Though I certainly understand your excitement for me it’s an unfortunate catch 22 because if we see them all in together it’s most likely due to injuries to others.

 

[Anzacday]

If Mayne is dropped I will walk naked down Swanston street, attach myself to a carriage and haul tourists for the rest of my days.

Mmm torn on that one, do we want you to have to "Pony Up" or not?

 

[unplugged]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people dropping Appleby.

He has improved each game and his defensive efforts are top notch, personally i would like to see more of him.

I want to see a combination of Pendles/Fas/McLarty/Sier as the inclusions.
Sier if Pendles doesn't get up.

Crocker, Brown, Mayne the likely outs with Phillips a potential out if he's not 100% after his concussion.

For me he's the natural omission for Langdon given that Langdon was playing fine before his injury prompted the change.

It's probably more about what Langdon can offer rather than anything against Appleby.

 

[Aussie pie]

So you’re not available to play as a CHF?

Sure but I mark like Chris Dawes so there will be a lot of dropped balls.

 

[Mobbsy]

Pendles in doubt

 

[Unknown Identity]

Pendles in doubt

Yeah i don't see him playing.

Anyone at training today? How's he moving?

 

[The Plowking]

Sure but I mark like Chris Dawes so there will be a lot of dropped balls.

*some deft tap ons like cox though.

 

[unplugged]

Surely Bucks will give us an honest answer about Pendles in his press conference in the next hour or two...

The club doesn't lie or withhold the truth.

For what it's worth, during the Brisbane game we saw Pendles icing his shin. Then through the week there was a photo which looked like he had strapping or a wrap around the same sort of area. So is it his ankle or his leg?

 

[Rorzza]

Out Crocker, in Fas (it's time). Crocker as a forward missed a number of goals from the pocket which should be his bread and butter. CFC needs an accurate kick for goal. Elliott is my first choice but seeing he is injured, Fas is the next best option IMO.

Mayne has to go simply vanilla, no speed or elite attributes. Out Mayne, in Pendles.

I would send the Goo forward again and bring in either Sier or Daicos. Finally, out Moore, in Daicos/Sier.

 

[Rorzza]

Out Crocker, in Fas (it's time). Crocker as a forward missed a number of goals from the pocket which should be his bread and butter. CFC needs an accurate kick for goal. Elliott is my first choice but seeing he is injured, Fas is the next best option IMO.

Mayne has to go simply vanilla, no speed or elite attributes. Out Mayne, in Pendles.

I would send the Goo forward again and bring in either Sier or Daicos. Finally, out Moore, in Daicos/Sier.

P.S. Out Apples, In Langdon.