Unofficial Preview Changes - Lions v Pies (Easter Thursday)

[lioninthesand]

Love semantics, can't get enough of it, particularly with that particular 2020 game that I remember arguing with Tigers fans in the lead up to the qualifying final was a totally irrelevent game. But in terms of your broader point, a few thoughts

I think our performance has far more to do with team deficiencies, personnel and match ups rather than a perceived mental effect. You can never prove that the mental effect is there - maybe it is for some players, maybe it isn't. I'd say we have been better recently but that can easily be put down to being better than the opponent on the day. 2019 was a long time ago too, and 2020 a weird season to include comparison wise. Maybe we are overawed, maybe we aren't - not sure what the discussion serves as it isn't proveable either way.

As dlanod has said including finals is going to skew this stat because we've played the grand finalists of the last 3 years in our 6 finals. Poor record has much more to do with quality of opponent than anything else and maybe what we lack as a team. I dunno, looking at win loss in these games without context to make the claim that we choke doesn't do much. Were we clutch last year when beating the pies by a kick after the siren, despite probably playing worse in that game than the one we lost the previous week by a point down in geelong?

Yep fair points all round, I respect your position and agree it’s hard to prove either way.

And yes, you could find lots of ways to count/not count every stat comparison in the AFL if you wanted to.

All in all, I disagree. I think on gut/eye/stat we struggle in the bigger/highly billed games.

I hope by the end of the season you can quote this post and we can celebrate how wrong I was, IMO - it is the clear next step in our progression.

 

[Timetoroarlike44]

Fagan has flagged a few times the ' learning experiences' required to perform on the big stage.

I don't think our record is poor but it's not that flash either.

So far we haven't been up to it on some occasions , we've performed well on others and overall about how you'd expect from an emerging team against very good opposition.

We're at the stage now where we need to be winning more of these games if we're to win a flag with the current crop.

Obviously more adrenalin flows for players in the lead up and on the day of 'big games' .Some players have always been great big game players i.e Hodge etc. , others take time to adapt to the extra pressure. And get better at it or not.

Yes the issue for me is we need a scalp like this on the road. Happy to be corrected, have we beat a top 4 side on the road in the past few years? It wasn't that we disgraced ourselves. It was that we looked just off the pace in the midfield in particular all night, and lost a lot of key stats. I wanted to see us determined, fired up, looking to make a statement.

Fagan preaches a calm and process based mantra. I don't know what he says behind the scenes but maybe we need a if it bleeds we can kill it rev up. Before that game we had teased but not delivered on potential. If you looked at the age of some of our players at the time, it was time to deliver. I feel as though we are approaching that time too. Fourth finals series in a row (we hope!). Enough players mature and experienced, with average game number having ticked over 100.

Our next 2 big away games are Sydney and Melbourne. Just have to win one of them at least in my view.

I do think the plus sign is our defence held up quite well considering. That's the first pillar to a flag and as long as Adams stays fit we look good back there. Our forward line definitely good enough. So over to the midfield.

 

[dlanod]

Yes the issue for me is we need a scalp like this on the road. Happy to be corrected, have we beat a top 4 side on the road in the past few years?

Using the top 4 from the end of the regular season:

• 0-2 in 2019.
• No actual away games against the top 4 in 2020, though we were still 0-2 at neutral sites.
• 0-2 in 2021, though that includes the umpires correcting themselves when it doesn't matter.

 

[davemc_lions]

Zorko kicking been great out of the backline.. Although I do have Birchall vibes they use his man to play through as he loose

for me Big O in for Fullarton
If J Berry Shoulder not 100% then Dev Rob in.

I put a few players on notice. We need to fix the mid against teams like cats, dogs, demons etc.
I do think Mitch days are numbered if we need a spot for Dev, Prior, Sharp, T Berry and Kiddy.
I say he most likely to be dropped rather then Rayner or Cockatoo who younger.

Also be good to try one of the young kids in the mid..

 

[martinson]

Love semantics, can't get enough of it, particularly with that particular 2020 game that I remember arguing with Tigers fans in the lead up to the qualifying final was a totally irrelevent game. But in terms of your broader point, a few thoughts

I think our performance has far more to do with team deficiencies, personnel and match ups rather than a perceived mental effect. You can never prove that the mental effect is there - maybe it is for some players, maybe it isn't. I'd say we have been better recently but that can easily be put down to being better than the opponent on the day. 2019 was a long time ago too, and 2020 a weird season to include comparison wise. Maybe we are overawed, maybe we aren't - not sure what the discussion serves as it isn't proveable either way.

As dlanod has said including finals is going to skew this stat because we've played the grand finalists of the last 3 years in our 6 finals. Poor record has much more to do with quality of opponent than anything else and maybe what we lack as a team. I dunno, looking at win loss in these games without context to make the claim that we choke doesn't do much. Were we clutch last year when beating the pies by a kick after the siren, despite probably playing worse in that game than the one we lost the previous week by a point down in geelong?

It's just my impression ,and I haven't looked up the match details at all , that the times when we 'failed' on the big stage we just weren't good enough. The big stage to me is ultimately finals. If you get to 2 or 3 on the ladder you've obviously not melted overly often during the year.

We showed in the first final against Richmond in 2020 that we can handle the pressure. I think we had a mental letdown after that game and just got completely belted by Geelong in the Prelim. because they'd been there before and we couldn't climb the mountain twice at that stage .

Last year we had injuries that impacted . Melbourne belted everybody and we battled it out ok considering they were just better than us.

Everyone knows we got robbed against the Dogs but that is one match I'd consider we did fail a bit on the big stage because we were in control of the match on our home deck and let it slip.

 

[p4p1]

I think our record in big games especially finals is better than it first appears.
Last year we were crucified by the umps against the dogs, like everyone else is.
A couple of years ago we were a missed throw call away from beating GWS.
We aren't far away but definitely need some changes to make that extra step IMO.

 

[Timetoroarlike44]

Using the top 4 from the end of the regular season:

• 0-2 in 2019.
• No actual away games against the top 4 in 2020, though we were still 0-2 at neutral sites.
• 0-2 in 2021, though that includes the umpires correcting themselves when it doesn't matter.

Yeah this feels about right.

Our best win by a long way in my view the past few years was Richmond QF in 2020. Yes it was at home but a final, and you could tell how much we set ourselves for it. Came out well, hung really tough during a Richmond onslaught in the second quarter, and again in the last quarter. I just haven't seen us with such a determined mindset in any other game.

 

[Tom14]

It's just my impression ,and I haven't looked up the match details at all , that the times when we 'failed' on the big stage we just weren't good enough. The big stage to me is ultimately finals. If you get to 2 or 3 on the ladder you've obviously not melted overly often during the year.

We showed in the first final against Richmond in 2020 that we can handle the pressure. I think we had a mental letdown after that game and just got completely belted by Geelong in the Prelim. because they'd been there before and we couldn't climb the mountain twice at that stage .

Last year we had injuries that impacted . Melbourne belted everybody and we battled it out ok considering they were just better than us.

Everyone knows we got robbed against the Dogs but that is one match I'd consider we did fail a bit on the big stage because we were in control of the match on our home deck and let it slip.

Two losses by a kick in semi finals in 2019 and 2021 could have gone either way - maybe mumford gets called for the throw that led to the daniels goal, maybe bailey smith misses from the boundary line. We certainly could have played better in both of them and not just bombed it to Haynes and Davis in 2019. Even with that if we were a bit more lucky we win both of those and have at least been to 3 consecutive prelims.

Prelim 2020 we got beaten up and I don't think it had much to do with choking - they were just the better team, same as the qualifying last year. Maybe you could point to us being a bit overwhelmed in the 2019 QF where we missed shot after shot for a quarter and a half until the Tigers were able to basically run it into the goal square and it turned into a rout.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Zorko kicking been great out of the backline.. Although I do have Birchall vibes they use his man to play through as he loose

for me Big O in for Fullarton
If J Berry Shoulder not 100% then Dev Rob in.

I put a few players on notice. We need to fix the mid against teams like cats, dogs, demons etc.
I do think Mitch days are numbered if we need a spot for Dev, Prior, Sharp, T Berry and Kiddy.
I say he most likely to be dropped rather then Rayner or Cockatoo who younger.

Also be good to try one of the young kids in the mid..

I don't think Berry ever plays again if you won't play him unless his shoulder is at 100%

 

[p4p1]

I agree with those who said if Berry isn't fully fit then he should come out for Dev.
The more obvious change is Oscar in for Fullerton.
As others have stated I think Robbo is time is done or almost done. As much as I love him, I just don't think he has the skills anymore to justify keeping some of the younger guys pushing for a game out. Ah Chee to a wing makes sense and I wouldn't be surprised if that is the plan once Coleman is fit again. Before that though I would be happy with a T Berry or someone similar to come and for Robbo and given a crack.
I still like Zorko at HB, though I understand we are in someway robbing Peter to pay Paul.
I think it's time to give some of these younger guys a chance to play some games. I wouldn't mind Rayner or Cockatoo drop to the 2's for a game just to see how some other prospects go on the big stage. It's obvious that we are aiming to have those two playing better than ever come finals time but I don't see a run for a game or two in the reserves at the start of the season causing any problems with that.

 

[beardancer]

I'm shooting a coupe of Bambis and going wholesale in the interests of testing others out and finding a way of improving the side.

Oscar for Fullarton
Zorko to half forward/ rotating mid
Cockatoo out for Madden at half back
McCluggage to play totally on the wing as he's not much extra value inside
Robinson then out for Beast -which assumes Ah Chee plays defensive wing or HB
Rayner out for Lohman or McFadyen
Prior should be in the 22 if possible or at least close


Cockatoo has been a a flop & can't run. Rayner seriously hasn't got it back (if he ever had it). Robbo is just about cooked. Can't see T Berry adding any magic as he's basically just a scrapper. Prefer Beast to Dev for hardness and mongrel. Prior is extremely versatile - wing or HB. Rayner should fight his way back in, but in the mean time let's see what Lohman or McFadyen can do. Can't wait for Hippy to be ready.

I'm kinda likin it.

 

[briztoon]

I see the need for keeping Rayner and Cockatoo in the senior team.

My personal opinion is that our midfield of the past three years has been too small and slow.

We don’t have the midfield to compete with Melbourne’s. And looking at some of the future midfields coming through, by the time Melbourne is done, GC, North and Fremantle will have similar size, speed and depth.

We need the bigger bodies of Rayner and Cockatoo in there, and we need them contributing more. For them it’s not about confidence beating up on lesser competition in the reserves, it’s about building the stamina to spend more time in the middle and run out games.

But that can leave our current midfield struggling at the end of quarters and games.

Personally I’d like to see Ah Chee moved permanently to a wing, and Robinson dropped in favour of Robertson.

Both Berry and Robertson can play wing when McCluggage and Ah Chee are on the bench, and both are good defensive runners when playing inside, and can spell Neale and Lyons.

 

[p4p1]

I see the need for keeping Rayner and Cockatoo in the senior team.

My personal opinion is that our midfield of the past three years has been too small and slow.

We don’t have the midfield to compete with Melbourne’s. And looking at some of the future midfields coming through, by the time Melbourne is done, GC, North and Fremantle will have similar size, speed and depth.

We need the bigger bodies of Rayner and Cockatoo in there, and we need them contributing more. For them it’s not about confidence beating up on lesser competition in the reserves, it’s about building the stamina to spend more time in the middle and run out games.

But that can leave our current midfield struggling at the end of quarters and games.

Personally I’d like to see Ah Chee moved permanently to a wing, and Robinson dropped in favour of Robertson.

Both Berry and Robertson can play wing when McCluggage and Ah Chee are on the bench, and both are good defensive runners when playing inside, and can spell Neale and Lyons.

I like it. Robertson to HB?

 

[dlanod]

Preview - Round 5 2022, Collingwood 7.35pm @ GABBA

Thursday April 14th GABBA @ 7.35 pm. With such a rich history of producing great entertainment lets have a look at some of Collywood’s latest hits and misses. 2020’s holiday off season began with extraordinary comedy flop, “Fire sale” where most of the expensive star power left the stage...

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