Preview P.F. vs. GWS (Sat 21/09 4:35pm MCG) In: Reid/Aish, Out: JDG/Levi. Teams #1523

[ride56]

We can't move Roughead or Moore forward. They have 3 big forwards that killed us last time -Cameron, Finlayson and Himmelberg. Reid should play.

I believe we can cover them with Roughy forward as our defense has improved and is quite fit compared to last time, when we were pretty bereft of good experienced players by memory. Regardless, Id rather not have Reid at all. We have other options

 

[upnsmoke]

If Reid can stay on the park for eight quarters he could be a dual premiership player.

2011 was a perfect example of a wasted opportunity... Given Cats were rampaging and the only team that belted the Pies in the season.. Two home and away losses were to Cats...

But watching Reid play injured and maybe at less than 70% was pain

 

[foreigner]

I believe we can cover them with Roughy forward as our defense has improved and is quite fit compared to last time, when we were pretty bereft of good experienced players by memory. Regardless, Id rather not have Reid at all. We have other options

No, no, no and no to Roughy forward.

 

[grayza2018]

With the Whitfield news, on the back of the Greene saga, am I the only eternal pessimist here who is developing a sense of dread about this game?!

It's all coming up roses for us currently, I'm sure the boys won't be complacent on the back of last year, but I am still developing a bad feeling about this one.

Will be very happily proven wrong though

 

[Chrispiesssss]

 

[10571z]

No risks for us now.

We shouldn’t be taking chances on Reid.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I smell a rat with the Whitfield appendix story. He went down last week like he’d been shot in the back.

 

[ThePhantom777]

With the Whitfield news, on the back of the Greene saga, am I the only eternal pessimist here who is developing a sense of dread about this game?!

It's all coming up roses for us currently, I'm sure the boys won't be complacent on the back of last year, but I am still developing a bad feeling about this one.

Will be very happily proven wrong though

Bucks seems to think we won't be complacent

Nathan Buckley on Whateley (18/09/19)

Collingwood coach, Nathan Buckley joins Gerard ahead of his preliminary final this weekend

player.whooshkaa.com

 

[Matt_352]

No risks for us now.

We shouldn’t be taking chances on Reid.

What's Reid got to do with Whitfield

 

[10571z]

What's Reid got to do with Whitfield

No Greene and no Whitfield...

We can beat them without Reid. If we take a chance on Reid and he goes down in quarter 1 all advantage we have got would be gone

 

[partypie]

Whoever slipped the appendicitis juice into young Lachie's morning latte deserves a solid pat on the back...

p.s. I hope he is ok in general - appendicitis can knock you around a bit...

 

[10571z]

Really our injuries are just as bad...
Degoey, Beams, Langdon just as good

 

[jackcass]

Reid is too risky. They arent super tall so I reckon play Scharenberg and move Roughy up forward again (Or Moore).

Their team from last week:

FB: Phil Davis (197) ~ Aidan Corr (195) ~ Tim Taranto
HB: Heath Shaw ~ Sam Taylor (196) ~ Nick Haynes (193)
C: Lachie Whitfield ~ Jacob Hopper ~ Jeremy Finlayson (196)
HF: Josh Kelly ~ Jeremy Cameron (196) ~ Brent Daniels
FF: Adam Tomlinson (194) ~ Zac Williams ~ Matt de Boer
FOL: Shane Mumford (197) ~ Harry Perryman ~ Toby Greene
I/C: Harry Himmelberg (194) ~ Daniel Lloyd ~ Adam Kennedy ~ Sam J. Reid

E: J. Hately, I. Cumming, L. Keeffe (204), I. Hill

I reckon they were going to be top heavy against us anyway and would likely drop at least 1 of Tomlinson, Taylor or Corr but they're definitely a tall side. Losing Greene and now potentially Whitfield hits them in a demographic they'd least like to change. Based on their emergencies I'd assume all of Hately, Cumming and Hill would be in the frame.

 

[ColinMochrie]

What's the theory? "Premierships are won and lost in the backline".

Our back 6 have been superb all year, they work so brilliantly together, and they all make each other better players. Moore and Howe can feel free to fly and intercept because they know Rough is there to lock down and Rough's job is made easier with Moore and Howe blocking leading lanes and not letting players have clean jumps at the ball. Throw in the likes of Maynard, Crisp and (previously) Greenwood providing ground level pressure and it's a great back unit.

We're lucky in a sense that we have both Shaz and Aish ready to come in support either aerially (Shaz) or Aish for more ground level cover and pressure.

I personally feel that Checkers can play the tall forward role and we could go short in the forward line, especially if it does rain.

 

[ColinMochrie]

Really our injuries are just as bad...
Degoey, Beams, Langdon just as good

I guess the thing is we have had time to find solutions to those injuries and build team cohesion. This has hit GWS all pretty suddenly.

 

[jonbe54]

I personally feel that Checkers can play the tall forward role and we could go short in the forward line, especially if it does rain.

Checkers really needs another tall target to be at his best, otherwise he gets lumbered with all the heavy hitters in the opposition defense.

 

[TradeDraft]

With the Whitfield news, on the back of the Greene saga, am I the only eternal pessimist here who is developing a sense of dread about this game?!

It's all coming up roses for us currently, I'm sure the boys won't be complacent on the back of last year, but I am still developing a bad feeling about this one.

Will be very happily proven wrong though

Too much Good things Happening before the Game. I totally get that Feeling and I had Thoughts like that go thru my head

 

[jackcass]

No Greene and no Whitfield...

We can beat them without Reid. If we take a chance on Reid and he goes down in quarter 1 all advantage we have got would be gone

Reid wasn't being discussed as a counter to Greene or Whitfield or any of their small to mediums. He was being discussed in terms of our F50 structure.

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

I don't really feel comfortable with the happiness surrounding GWS player outs.

I feel confident we'll play well against the Giants but I don't feel like the result is a foregone conclusion and I would feel better coming into the game knowing our best can match their best.

Hope Whitfield recovers ASAP because he would likely be devastated. I'm somewhat less generous re: Greene.

 

[unplugged]

I'll just leave this here. Got a bit longer than I anticipated but anyway.

In Round 18:

Coniglio didn't play in Round 18 and neither did Callan Ward. Neither will play this week.

Kelly didn't play and is a huge inclusion. In the last two weeks he has had 22 touches, 3 goals (vs. Bulldogs) and 26 touches, 1 goal (vs. Brisbane). He is obviously an elite player and in 2017 was rated by Pendlebury as the best two-way player in the game.

Phil Davis didn't play and yet Mihocek was still held goalless. Our leading goal scorers were Brown, Crocker and Pendlebury (2 each). DeGoey, WHE, Grundy, Sier and Sidebottom all combined for one goal each.

The biggest changes for GWS are the losses of Greene (last time 27 Disposals, 2 goals) and Whitfield (last time 29 disposals and a game-high 623 metres gained). These two were by far their best two performers in this game.

Key performers from last time whom will play again in the Preliminary Final:

Tim Taranto had 32 disposals and 14 tackles (147 AFL Fantasy Points).

Zac Williams had 26 touches and 10 tackles (122 AFL Fantasy Points).

Heath Shaw had 26 touches including 10 marks and a game high 12 rebound 50s (104 AFL Fantasy Points). Shaw had a very quiet game against the Lions and will be looking to bounce back.

Himmelberg kicked 4, Finlayson kicked 3 and Cameron kicked 6. Their other goal scorers were Greene (2) whilst Hill, Reid, Simpson and Daniels all had one each.

To combat the above mentioned three talls we had Roughead, Howe (playing his first game back from injury) but no Darcy Moore. We had Appleby playing undersized. Scharenberg missed both of the two consecutive interstate games (Round 17 and 18) before then playing four consecutive games thereafter. Whether Scharenberg plays this week remains to be seen, but I suspect he will.

Last time Simpson (27 hit outs) and Mumford (11 hitouts) combined for 38 hitouts against the 54 hitouts from Collingwood (Grundy 48, Cox 6). Grundy had 31 disposals and 9 tackles to add to this tally, which provided 181 AFL Fantasy Points. It's looking like Simpson may not play this Saturday and Mumford was soundly beaten by Martin on the weekend.

I need to confirm this number, but I believe On The Couch had a graphic on screen on Monday night showing that de Boer - on average - is keeping elite opposition to 5 disposals less than their season average. It doesn't sound like a huge win when it's laid out like this, but when he gets his man, he really gets his man. That said, de Boer played in the semi final last year and finished with 6 disposals and one goal. Our best midfielders all performed in this game, so I'm not sure which player he lined up on or if he was used in a different role (unless he was injured?).

For us, the following notes:
* We were playing our second interstate game in as many weeks.
* Pendlebury played his first game with a broken finger.
* DeGoey played, but Elliott didn't.
* Cox played, but was largely ineffective.
* Stephenson didn't play.
* Thomas didn't play.
* Howe was playing his first game back from injury (mentioned above)
* Adams was also playing his first game back after a long injury layoff and performed well with 32 disposals, although failed to get up the next week against Richmond.

 

[jonbe54]

Whitfield is just good fortune for us, and about time some of the dice rolls came up for us too!

Greene, well the less said about that little turd the better.

Both teams with important outs, bring it on.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Feel bad for Whitfield, but ultimately history remembers who won and who lost, just like no-one is handing us a deserved 16th flag because we got a VFL backline into a winning position in last year’s GF.

Happy for a few breaks to go our way for once, and I won’t be upset if the same happens for the following week, on the proviso that we get there.

 

[domin8tors]

GWS have never won a game without at least one of Lachie Whitfield or Toby Greene in the side Six games where both missed, six losses
2012 R04 -46 v ADEL
2012 R09 -66 v ESS
2012 R20 -30 v GCS
2014 R06 -40 v GCS
2017 R07 -23 v STK
2019 R12 -21 v ADEL

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Anyone gloating or deriving pleasure about Whitfield getting appendicitis needs to have a good hard look at themselves. The poor bloke’s put the work in all year and deserves an opportunity to be out there

 

[Tarkyn_24]

GWS have never won a game without at least one of Lachie Whitfield or Toby Greene in the side Six games where both missed, six losses
2012 R04 -46 v ADEL
2012 R09 -66 v ESS
2012 R20 -30 v GCS
2014 R06 -40 v GCS
2017 R07 -23 v STK
2019 R12 -21 v ADEL

Tbh the 2012 losses don’t mean a great deal as they were routinely losing at that point in their history even with a full list to work from.

So let’s put it at 3 losses from 3 attempts (although I’d argue 2014 isn’t representative either). I wouldn’t be putting all my eggs in that basket