Preview Changes/Preview - Round 5 v Essendon

[A11dAtP0w3R]

disgusted but not surprised, Goody is so predictable.

 

[Lampers]

If like they did against the Eagles they just stick with the same team structure, I think it will be Tomlinson and Brown in for Hibberd and Lever. Brown to take Petty's forward role, Petty to move into the backline along with Tomlinson. Sub will be Jordon.

I know it’s poor form to quote yourself… but this was pretty predictable.

 

[Toump Ass]

Why mess with a winning formula?

 

[booshboy]

Surely only reason Tomlinson is in is so May can go to Stringer...

At least we aren't playing an underdone Lever- 'learnings'

Still.. yuck

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Why mess with a winning formula?

I dont see Petty and Brown as like for like at all, zero faith in TMac playing another good game. Would much prefer to see what JVR can do at full forward for the entire game with Petty giving Grundy a spell in the ruck.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I highly doubt May goes to Stringer also. Stringer plays too high.

Name a game where we havent had May back behind everyone organising the defense when Lever isn't playing.

 

[Lampers]

Surely only reason Tomlinson is in is so May can go to Stringer...

At least we aren't playing an underdone Lever- 'learnings'

Still.. yuck

I was listening to that guy from Champion Data the other day and Lever is apparently the third best rated defender as an actual defender this year (i.e. stopping an opponent).

A bit of a surprise, but it does mean Lever has played more of a proper defender role this year than he has in the past. Some of that would be due to Melbourne playing the shorter backline against Sydney and West Coast.

So if you think of Lever and Hibberd as being defence first backs this year (instead of thinking of Lever as that peel off interceptor first), then replacing them with two defence first players in Petty and Tomlinson makes more sense.

I’m still not thrilled but just trying to work through the potential rationale.

 

[Lampers]

I highly doubt May goes to Stringer also. Stringer plays too high.

Name a game where we havent had May back behind everyone organising the defense when Lever isn't playing.

Round 1 and round 2 didn’t have May behind everyone organising the backline. But I take your point. In the past May has generally stayed back and handed over if his man tries to drag him too far up the ground.

Below is Stringer’s heat map from last week. He played really deep forward and only attended two centre bounces for the game. I don’t think Stringer is fit enough to try to take May up the ground too often.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Round 1 and round 2 didn’t have May behind everyone organising the backline. But I take your point. In the past May has generally stayed back and handed over if his man tries to drag him too far up the ground.

Below is Stringer’s heat map from last week. He played really deep forward and only attended two centre bounces for the game. I don’t think Stringer is fit enough to try to take May up the ground too often.

View attachment 1659057

Yeah, fair enough, I havent seen much of the Bombers this year and lazily went off where hes played most of his footy in the past.

I said name a game "without Lever" where May has gone up the ground. I cant think of one off the top of my head. Its always been May or Lever in the last line of defense as far as I can remember.

 

[Lampers]

Yeah, fair enough, I havent seen much of the Bombers this year and lazily went off where hes played most of his footy in the past.

I said name a game "without Lever" where May has gone up the ground. I cant think of one off the top of my head. Its always May or Lever in the last line of defense as far as I can remember.

Yep, I missed the “without Lever” bit.

Maybe that’s part of the reason to have a Tomlinson in rather than D.Turner.

Tomlinson dominates at VFL level playing a May/Lever style role but obviously against lesser opponents.

He’s a safer bet to be able to play that role effectivey at AFL level to free up May than a second game Disco.

 

[Daemon]

Think Tomo in is a good change, he was in form and is the best option to replace Lever.
I don't think the team should have both TMac and Brown in it but it's not catastrophic, both are in ok form and seem fit. Would assume JVR will go second ruck again which isn't the worst for getting his hands on the ball and building confidence.
Would expect when Gawn is fit that one of Brown or Tmac won't play. I'll save my melt for then if they drop JVR and play both TMac and Brown.

 

[Headless]

Out schmutt

That's not very nice.

 

[Topkent]

For **** sake

 

[Crusty Demon]

WTF Goody? Started to win me over! Gonna be wet af in Adelaide so he brings in literally the two least agile blokes on our list. Brown will have zero impact. Pointless bringing him in this week. Dumb changes. Disco should have replaced Lever. Played well at Casey last week and is a much more like for like than Tomlinson. Arggh.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Tomlinson for Lever doesn’t really bother me but Brown in can gtf.

 

[pjfairbairn]

Think Tomo in is a good change, he was in form and is the best option to replace Lever.
I don't think the team should have both TMac and Brown in it but it's not catastrophic, both are in ok form and seem fit. Would assume JVR will go second ruck again which isn't the worst for getting his hands on the ball and building confidence.
Would expect when Gawn is fit that one of Brown or Tmac won't play. I'll save my melt for then if they drop JVR and play both TMac and Brown.

Best take so far.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Tomlinson for Lever doesn’t really bother me but Brown in can gtf.

Any chance of a late withdrawal when Goody sees it p***ing down pre-game?

 

[00Stinger]

I dont see Petty and Brown as like for like at all, zero faith in TMac playing another good game. Would much prefer to see what JVR can do at full forward for the entire game with Petty giving Grundy a spell in the ruck.

come on man, Petty has been putrid for the first month now

Should have been dropped when may came

 

[Crusty Demon]

come on man, Petty has been putrid for the first month now

Should have been dropped when may came

Would be happy if Petty went back to Casey for a spell. Keep Tomlinson in the side and have Petty have a good 4 weeks playing the main KPF for Casey. He needs some individual wins. Looks devoid of confidence atm.

 

[pjfairbairn]

come on man, Petty has been putrid for the first month now

Should have been dropped when may came

From memory, he was good Round One?

 

[Topkent]

From memory, he was good Round One?

Nope

 

[Crusty Demon]

From memory, he was good Round One?

He was playing against the tallest and greatest forwardline to ever exist! So he must have done a decent job

 

[netslave]

Hope BBB is watching from the stands, he's even more of a liability when it's wet, will also be interesting to see how our ball movement goes in the rain.

 

[danster168]

WTF Goody? Started to win me over! Gonna be wet af in Adelaide so he brings in literally the two least agile blokes on our list. Brown will have zero impact. Pointless bringing him in this week. Dumb changes. Disco should have replaced Lever. Played well at Casey last week and is a much more like for like than Tomlinson. Arggh.

the only thing I see with brown is him winning a few chopping the arms free kicks and his accurate kicking being worth double in the wet. But yeah, he's going to be an absolute liability when the ball is on the ground for 99% of the game.

 

[Bluelegs]

Just on the conditions the current forecast for tomorrow is 1-20mm which is about as useful as saying it will be between 0 and 30 degrees.

If it is closer to the 20mm I would really hope to see a late change. I can't really remember how we've handled wet weather footy in the past.