Preview Changes: R15 vs North Melbourne, Sunday June 26, 12.40pm ACST in Tasmania

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Cap

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Jul 27, 2004
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Did anyone see Nick's Friday presser ? Not you tube.

Did any one talk to the radio shows?
 

1970crow

TheBrownDog
Jun 7, 2011
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I’ve already explained this, most of those teams went with a taller 22 than we are, so they can afford a small sub.

Statistically a team is most likely to lose a smaller player, so that is why subs are smaller players. We have 3 ruck/kpfs, the likelihood that one needs replacing is much lower than a smaller player. We have chosen our structure and a small sub provides the greatest protection to that structure in the event of 8njury. Just as it is with pretty much every sub for every team every week.
 

Mr MysteryGuest

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Apr 4, 2015
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Statistically a team is most likely to lose a smaller player, so that is why subs are smaller players. We have 3 ruck/kpfs, the likelihood that one needs replacing is much lower than a smaller player. We have chosen our structure and a small sub provides the greatest protection to that structure in the event of 8njury. Just as it is with pretty much every sub for every team every week.
Jeez dude, we only have 2 kpf for this game. You obviously didn’t read it the first so I’ll just tag my first response again.
Going in with a shorter side, if one of the talls goes down with injury it would hurt structures. If a small gets injured then we would just return to the normal balance
 

Kane McGoodwin

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Jeez dude, we only have 2 kpf for this game. You obviously didn’t read it the first so I’ll just tag my first response again.
Don't worry - most people not under the influence get it.

If you go in small, you can have a tall as a sub (like we have this week... though I would still use Jones).

If you go in tall, it is very unlikely you would select a tall as a sub.

We have seen talls picked as a sub plenty of times, including Soldo today for Richmond.
 

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1970crow

TheBrownDog
Jun 7, 2011
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Jeez dude, we only have 2 kpf for this game. You obviously didn’t read it the first so I’ll just tag my first response again.

geez dude, obviously you can't work it out. We have fixed our structure in at selection. There are 5 talls in total and 17 smaller players. To protect our chosen structure we select a sub from the group that is statistically more likely to get injured. Which is very obviously from the 3+:1 shorter player group. It's so bleedingly obvious that I can't understand how you don't see it. What you're proposing puts our structure at greater risk because the ratio would change from 17:5 to 16:6, obviously that's why clubs select nearly always smaller players as sub. To protect their preferred structure.
 

1970crow

TheBrownDog
Jun 7, 2011
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Don't worry - most people not under the influence get it.

If you go in small, you can have a tall as a sub (like we have this week... though I would still use Jones).

If you go in tall, it is very unlikely you would select a tall as a sub.

We have seen talls picked as a sub plenty of times, including Soldo today for Richmond.

i understand what he's saying, it's just that he's wrong. He's using an arbitrary number to determine that we're actually one tall short going in this week, so having Berg as sub would effectively right the wrong in the event that a short player goes down. The club has deliberately selected the structure for this particular match, the sub isn't selected to correct a selection structure 'error', it's to replace an injured player. And there are over 3 times the number of running players than talls, this is why clubs rarely select talls as subs. They use them to fit into existing structure/plans, not change it up just because a small has gone down.

If you weren't such a pathetic troll, you'd understand the very obvious point I'm making and why clubs almost always select running players as sub. But play on, I'm assuming you've had your fair share of reds again tonight. Missing points by wide margins as you often do in the evening.
 

Kane McGoodwin

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Ivan Soldo...
 

1970crow

TheBrownDog
Jun 7, 2011
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Ivan Soldo...

you wanna list the rest for this round? Notice a trend? Talls as sub are the exception, not the rule, and it's not by accident. You really do lack any form of nuance, don't you?

jayden hunt
callum ahchee
Lachie mcneil
Josh morris
Alex witherden
brayden ham
Will setterfield
mitch crowden
Cooper stephens
 

Mr MysteryGuest

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geez dude, obviously you can't work it out. We have fixed our structure in at selection. There are 5 talls in total and 17 smaller players. To protect our chosen structure we select a sub from the group that is statistically more likely to get injured. Which is very obviously from the 3+:1 shorter player group. It's so bleedingly obvious that I can't understand how you don't see it. What you're proposing puts our structure at greater risk because the ratio would change from 17:5 to 16:6, obviously that's why clubs select nearly always smaller players as sub. To protect their preferred structure.

Lol are you deliberately ignoring the named 22? Context matters.

We play with a 16:6 structure more often than we play 17:5 and we almost never play with 18:4.

Given the starting 22 will be 17:5, having a tall sub will give the best protection to maintain our preferred structures.

If a tall goes down, we keep the same structure. If a small goes down, we go back to our main 16:6 structure.
 

Redleg Crow

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May 26, 2013
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I'll be travelling while the game is on so won't be able to comment in the GameDay thread. So I'll just put my comment here:

"Surely we can't lose this. I mean that cannot happen, right?? Right???"
 

Kane McGoodwin

TheBrownDog
May 21, 2001
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I'll be travelling while the game is on so won't be able to comment in the GameDay thread. So I'll just put my comment here:

"Surely we can't lose this. I mean that cannot happen, right?? Right???"
We haven't beaten the Roos ever in Tasmania so I wouldn't be getting too confident.

Hopefully you bring us some luck.
 

Sanders

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Nov 1, 2012
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If you weren't such a pathetic troll, you'd understand the very obvious point I'm making and why clubs almost always select running players as sub. But play on, I'm assuming you've had your fair share of reds again tonight. Missing points by wide margins as you often do in the evening.

Nailed it
 

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