Preview Changes: R20 vs Western Bulldogs

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triggyscrewedus

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Sep 2, 2015
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Tell that to Brisbane where he got 12 ground ball gets.

Sholl looks injured, and run down (which is fair enough, it's a long season and he plays a very taxing game), but the kid is going to be a stud outside midfielder long term. Would be absolutely stupid to trade him at this point in time. The goal to accrue talented players, not give them away because some nuffy doesn't get what an outside midfielder is.

All the game for Sholl is now is to find consistency. That he get 20+ disposals week in week out, and I'd also like him to find more marks, and more score involvements. Something Atkins never could manage, and what has held him back despite the talent he possessed.
The fact you had to make comparisons with Atkins says it all
 

thebirdman 24

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I'm glad we are being tough of Sholl now instead of waiting until it is too late to correct some of these soft efforts.

I still think he will be a great winger. He doesn't need to be super tough. He just needs to be David Mackay levels of going in when it is your turn. (Although Dmac does get a bit carried away now and jumps in when there are 3 crows wrestling for it on the ground and leaves his man free on the outside.)

I could start to see it unravelling for him when he missed that goal in the dying minutes against Carlton. He will come back better next year.

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Dangarman

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Pretty similar team to round 1 (last week was closer). I think this is roughly the team that we'll go into 2022 with +- a few players

It's definitely been a big development year where we've moved 9 players into the 15-50 game mark. 15 games is a bit arbitrary, but I think by this point players at least have an understanding of the speed of AFL level. I think we can expect another rough year next year, but by the end of it we should have (hopefully) pushed 5 player over the 50 game mark (with a few not far behind).

View attachment 1190996

2023 is where we should start pushing for finals again, noting by that stage we may only have Sloane, Seedsman, Laird, Keays and Kelly (fingers crossed no) as our veterans. This may hold us back another year as it probably won't be a strong group of senior players.

By 2025 we will have a large group of players approaching 100 games (or passing it) at the same time. If we're not contending by then I will be very sad. Carlton sad.
Nice work, great comparison.

So we have:
Brown to Murray (-160 games)
Frampton to Fogarty (+28 games)
McAdam to Himmelberg (+11 games) and
Sholl to Jones (+25 games)

+15 to +18 games for the rest of the crew bar Sloane (+14), McPherson (+12), Murphy (+11) and Lynch (+8).

Hopefully that mix can get the same result as R1 - a massive upset no-one expected. I'm certainly not expecting it, but IMO rain is the great leveller in AFL. I recall a match years ago when a struggling Richmond choked us on a wet day.
 

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Gtowncrow

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Should seriously be looking at trading Scholl now to get value.. was cheap as chips we have dressed him up but he isn't going to get anybetter from here.
He is as fit as they get, not "worn down after a long season" blah blah..
It's obvious he cannot or more so WILL NOT attack a hard ball and the club has been trying to fix it since it became glaringly obvious in the showdown.

Pick 4 and Scholl to North for Horne.
Elite runner. Very weak body. Might take a few years but I think the wait will be worth it.
 

Murray2503

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Should seriously be looking at trading Scholl now to get value.. was cheap as chips we have dressed him up but he isn't going to get anybetter from here.
He is as fit as they get, not "worn down after a long season" blah blah..
It's obvious he cannot or more so WILL NOT attack a hard ball and the club has been trying to fix it since it became glaringly obvious in the showdown.

Pick 4 and Scholl to North for Horne.
North wouldn't do that deal. They probably would do Crouch, pick 4 and our compo pick for Horne. Crouch would be a good fit for North with Cunnington getting on in age.

They also need another tall, so Himmelberg and pick 4 for pick 1 is another option
 
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Murray2503

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They're addicted to goals at the lower level, they just can't say no. Despite so much evidence that it's meaningless and you'd imagine a 3 club scratch match should have no influence whatsoever.
A few goals in a meaningless vfl scratch match and then back in. He's already shown he can play at SANFL level similar to Frampton but I'm yet to see it at AFL level. Give Cook a run even though he's more a half forward/wing type or alternatively I would have preferred McAdam over Rowe. Or even Newchurch. We need to trade or draft a decent small end of the year. Dropping Sholl was a perfect opportunity to play Cook on a wing in his place or move Hamill to the wing (where he is more suited with his attacking game) and Cook at half forward.

The last 4 games Nick's should be getting games into the likes of Worrell, Cook, Thilthorpe, Pedlar. Also let's see what Berry can do in the midfield when given a decent run. If we are playing the likes of Kelly, Lynch, Mackay etc knowing they won't be at the club next year what's the point. Other clubs already know their value anyway therefore it's wiser to blood some more kids. This will give them more incentive in the offseason knowing what level they need to get too. Our only likely win is against North which will be very tough in the form they are in so what's the point in playing our most experienced team possible. If it's to minimise losing margin it's the wrong call.
 
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Betts are off

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Wouldn't mind seeing Ned playing a bit of a lockdown role on Caleb Daniel this weekend. Just try and reign in his uncontested possessions a bit, which he seems to have a real knack for piling up.

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Geoffa32

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I think you're getting a bit carried away with Sholl personally, he's a nice footballer and a neat user no doubt but teams have woken up to his laser boot and are putting the time in on him and so far he's finding that a fair bit tougher than his previous running around like an unregistered dog role with little pressure associated with that role.
Agree.

Something for him to work on and improve.

Talent is there though.

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footy4ever

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I think you're getting a bit carried away with Sholl personally, he's a nice footballer and a neat user no doubt but teams have woken up to his laser boot and are putting the time in on him and so far he's finding that a fair bit tougher than his previous running around like an unregistered dog role with little pressure associated with that role.
I haven't seen his 'laser boot' in action for an eon now. We really have to stop crediting him with this 'elite' kick he's supposed to have. He's been kicking plenty of soft loopy death balls of late. They're nothing out of the ordinary, and worst thing is I think he started believing all the hype. Disagree away.
 

Dangarman

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Should seriously be looking at trading Scholl now to get value.. was cheap as chips we have dressed him up but he isn't going to get anybetter from here.
He is as fit as they get, not "worn down after a long season" blah blah..
It's obvious he cannot or more so WILL NOT attack a hard ball and the club has been trying to fix it since it became glaringly obvious in the showdown.

Pick 4 and Scholl to North for Horne.
I'm guessing we will only be one pick behind North (and only half a game in front), and Hawthorn will get the spoon.
 

Faaarrk

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Should seriously be looking at trading Scholl now to get value.. was cheap as chips we have dressed him up but he isn't going to get anybetter from here.
He is as fit as they get, not "worn down after a long season" blah blah..
It's obvious he cannot or more so WILL NOT attack a hard ball and the club has been trying to fix it since it became glaringly obvious in the showdown.

Pick 4 and Scholl to North for Horne.
He's never been the same since he was moved to make way for Mackay to take the wing.
I think his form is more psychological than anything.
If he's a able to work through it he will be a very good outside running player.
Has he even played 30 games yet?
 

Mutineer

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I haven't seen his 'laser boot' in action for an eon now. We really have to stop crediting him with this 'elite' kick he's supposed to have. He's been kicking plenty of soft loopy death balls of late. They're nothing out of the ordinary, and worst thing is I think he started believing all the hype. Disagree away.
And as I explained in the post you quoted that's because teams are putting more time into him now and a lot more of his kicks are under much closer pressure than was the case earlier in the season and last year. His contested footy was always a query and I would think the reason he went at the pick he did in his draft.
 

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Thetrader15

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He's never been the same since he was moved to make way for Mackay to take the wing.
I think his form is more psychological than anything.
If he's a able to work through it he will be a very good outside running player.
Has he even played 30 games yet?
Perhaps the lesson he learnt was that to be in the team on the wing, you can't keep getting 25 touches each week and that's why he's dropped his possession count.
 

CrowBloke

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1) TT or Himmelberg?
2) Frampton or Murray?
3) Sholl vs Mackay
4) Will Murphy be fit? Will Rowe come back in anyway?
1) If The Thriller is fit, him (more talent, more potential, more impact)
2) If Murray is fit, him, unless they play Frampton to up his Trade price (say from Pick 120 to Pick 90 :laughv1: )
3) Sholl needs a break, has lost his confidence/ speed/ running power etc.
4) Murphy, dunno. Rowe, hope not.
 

Interloperer

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He's been kicking plenty of soft loopy death balls of late.
Every kick he's ever done, (that isn't missing an easy shot at an unguarded goal,) is like that, a measured 3/4 power lob that his a specific spot 35-45m away. Initially it reads as extremely intelligent and calm play to see him execute those kicks under pressure. But after a few games opponents have realized he is an exceptional kick if left open, but only has the one club in his bag and they plan accordingly.

It's no different to the Laird hospital handball or old school players just bombing it down the line.

don't get me wrong, he's an incredible kick, and I was genuinely impressed by how he was able to use his skills to get out of trouble in the early rounds. But currently it seems that he's rapidly hit a hard limit unless there are other improvements in his game.
 

Mego Red

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He's never been the same since he was moved to make way for Mackay to take the wing.
I think his form is more psychological than anything.
If he's a able to work through it he will be a very good outside running player.
Has he even played 30 games yet?
He's absolutely cooked. It's not psychological at all. He's just stuffed and should be eased into the offseason.
 

hey shorty

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He's never been the same since he was moved to make way for Mackay to take the wing.
I think his form is more psychological than anything.
If he's a able to work through it he will be a very good outside running player.
Has he even played 30 games yet?
No, his form is purely physical.

He's a small kid who has run out of gas in his first full year of AFL footy.
 

PsychoG

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For all the complaining that "we're just playing to win and pick every available senior player in a rebuild". There's really not that many young guys not in the team who you could actually make much of an argument for right now. Accepting that there's no point playing a kid if they're sore/cooked/not ready.

Cook, Gollant, Newchurch, Borlase, Parnell and Worrell aren't ready, need another pre-season although I could see Worrell and Cook getting a taste so they can get a feel for the level.

O'Connor and McAsey's form haven't warranted a call up at this stage. Sholl and Thilthorpe are clearly sore, which is fine, give them a rest.

Hately and Pedlar are the only two you could actually make an argument for right now, I'd be very okay with sending Sloane off for surgery, moving Berry into the midfield and giving Pedlar that forward flank, he has way more attacking weapons than Berry and I can see him ending up the kind of player who ends up playing 60/40 midfield/forward going forward.
 

thebirdman 24

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For all the complaining that "we're just playing to win and pick every available senior player in a rebuild". There's really not that many young guys not in the team who you could actually make much of an argument for right now. Accepting that there's no point playing a kid if they're sore/cooked/not ready.

Cook, Gollant, Newchurch, Borlase, Parnell and Worrell aren't ready, need another pre-season although I could see Worrell and Cook getting a taste so they can get a feel for the level.

O'Connor and McAsey's form haven't warranted a call up at this stage. Sholl and Thilthorpe are clearly sore, which is fine, give them a rest.

Hately and Pedlar are the only two you could actually make an argument for right now, I'd be very okay with sending Sloane off for surgery, moving Berry into the midfield and giving Pedlar that forward flank, he has way more attacking weapons than Berry and I can see him ending up the kind of player who ends up playing 60/40 midfield/forward going forward.
I think most have given up caring for the year and aren't worried about this.

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GrommoT

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... moving Berry into the midfield and giving Pedlar that forward flank, he has way more attacking weapons than Berry and I can see him ending up the kind of player who ends up playing 60/40 midfield/forward going forward.
Berry's not far off from being cooked as well, I think - looking back at recent games, I can't tell when was the last time he ran full pelt to a contest or tackle like he did at the start of the year.

Maybe he never quite recovered from that rolled ankle at training after Rd5 or it has just held him back a bit but I think they just park him in the HF as he can still do something useful if play comes his way (and still a better option than who's available from the 2nds).
 

huludicidal

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so...

Billy good against hawthorn = bad because remember its just a sh*t team in Hawthornthat he was playing against.

but

himmelberg good against hawthorn = good.

seriously, the himmelberg cheer squad in here is hilarious.

Frampton has been better than himmelberg at all levels this year.. thats how disgustingly sh*t himmelberg has been this year.. because billy has been absolutely terrible at AFL level.

I’d take a tired and struggling TT over both of them everyday of the week and twice on sundays.
I really don’t think a Himmelberg cheer squad exists. I don’t particularly care whether he gets selected or not most weeks.

However, against the Hawks, Himmelberg was eye-catching. He crashed packs, brought the ball to ground regularly, he took marks, he provided second efforts once the ball hit the deck and he kicked multiple goals (including a difficult checkside goal). You don’t have to like him to see that those things actually happened. He was performing to a similar level in the back half of 2020 too, and many would argue that his second half of 2020 was one of the major positives of our first ever wooden spoon season. Tell me the last time Frampton did all of those 5 things above in a game at AFL level? It was a better game than Billy has played in his entire AFL career, and it’s not even arguable.

If we take the Hawks game out of the equation, nobody is saying that Himmelberg has had a good 2021. When they’ve both played SANFL in the same team, Frampton has clearly stood out more. Let’s not forget that Frampton stood out more than Thilthorpe at that level too though. Sometimes SANFL form really doesn’t translate to the top level.

When only one of Frampton or Himmelberg has been in the AFL side, they’ve generally both been poor. It’s ridiculous to suggest that Frampton has clearly “been better than Himmelberg at AFL level this year” - Rightly or wrongly, Himmelberg has only played a few games, while Frampton has played about 10. Frampton has been an absolute disaster in all but 1 of those games as a forward. Round 1 against Geelong as a forward he played ok (and it was NOT more than ok, he dropped a lot of easy marks that day) on a day where we were pumping it in there relentlessly. Every single game since (as an AFL forward) = complete trash. Not most games. All.

We can’t judge either of Frampton or Himmelberg too harshly in the games where we are getting slaughtered in the midfield and the ball isn’t getting forward of centre much, I’ll give them both that. But Frampton was in there for a good chunk of time when we were going well as a team (eg Rounds 2-7, where we generally looked a top 10 side in the league, but Frampton looked the worst player on the field for either team). His set shot goalkicking is unbelievably bad, to the point where nobody watching him play would have any confidence that he’s going to convert from further than 15m out.

I don’t particularly love Himmelberg as a player at all, but what he served up as a forward last week at AFL level was far better than anything Frampton has served up as a forward at AFL level, that’s all I’m saying. Similarly, what Himmelberg produced as an AFL forward in second half of 2020 was better than Frampton has ever produced too. So there’s mounting evidence that he’s the better option of the two. Should we bother with either? That’s a different argument.

Frampton as a defender might be salvageable, and personally I would have retained him this week over Murray just to get a look at him in defence against a good team (let’s face it, the ball will be down there a lot haha). The fact that the selectors didn’t do that, despite Billy looking pretty good back there against the Hawks, proves that he’s now considered a “break glass in case of emergency” option only.

But, beyond all doubt, Billy is an absolute disaster as an AFL forward, has proven that he isn’t up to it, and will clearly never play there again unless we are decimated by injuries. Himmelberg does not fall into that category yet.

But yes, long-term, everyone knows Thilthorpe is best option of the 3, and nobody’s arguing that point. Because of Thilthorpe’s ability to play in different roles moving forward (eg up the ground roaming on a wing, Nik Cox style, which is where Riley himself has been quoted as saying is his best position), and bearing in mind that Walker will likely retire at the end of 2022, it would be ideal if one of Frampton or Himmelberg could emerge as another genuine 197cm-plus tall forward option who can back up in the ruck and provide a contest in the forward 50. How likely is it that Himmelberg actually becomes that player? Look it’s probably only somewhere around a 50-50 proposition, but there’s nobody else currently on our list with a better chance (certainly not Billy ******* Frampton), so giving EH games at AFL level still makes sense.

Summary: we’ll know half way through 2022 if Himmelberg has a future as an AFL forward. At the end of 2020 most would have agreed that he DID have a future, after producing a very good back half of 2020. A poor off-season, combined with the emergence of Thilthorpe, put him behind the 8-ball this year. Jury is out right now.

What’s next for Billy? He’s either going to do a Liam Jones and be converted to a defender which may or may not be a success (and is made less likely be the fact that McAsey will clearly be given an opportunity next season), OR, he rots in the SANFL for another 12 months and is then quietly delisted at the end of 2022.

Summary: we know right now that Billy has no future as an AFL forward. He has a slim chance of being converted to an AFL defender.
 

huludicidal

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Should seriously be looking at trading Scholl now to get value.. was cheap as chips we have dressed him up but he isn't going to get anybetter from here.
He is as fit as they get, not "worn down after a long season" blah blah..
It's obvious he cannot or more so WILL NOT attack a hard ball and the club has been trying to fix it since it became glaringly obvious in the showdown.

Pick 4 and Scholl to North for Horne.
I’m assuming this is satire.
 

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