Prediction Changes Rd 13 vs Hoks

[bresker]

A lot of people in.this thread will be eating humble pie tomorrow after Gards double punches his 5th ball to the boundary.

I think he'll go alright.

 

[Martyn_30_]

Gardiner's become the most underrated bulldogs player of all time. Yes he's limited but he's generally done his job defensively and at this stage better than what O'Donnell has. Ideally Jones comes back soon but I highly doubt Gardiner impacts the result either way.

 

[MaxiBont]

Who’s been our most underrated player?

For me it’s between Macrea, Daniels, Gardiner and Baku.

 

[BEaston]

We just need 47 more Gardy games to make sure any kids qualify for father son.
This week is a step in the right direction.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Firstly, I hope Ryan Gardner plays well and justifies his selection this week.

However, I have to push back on the suggestion that Gardner gives us improved flexibility in comparison to the other alternatives, i.e. Buss and Jones.

I think we are less flexible with him in the side, which has incidentally been one of my main issues with his selection in the past because his presence in the side often led to the detrimental displacement of other more flexible players, e.g. Cordy and Keath, to accommodate his lack of flexibility as a defender.

The one area that I think Ryan does bring a potential advantage over the others is as a backup ruck. So, I'm hoping they employ him in that role.

I think you're overthinking it.

Gardner has rucked and played forward in the recent past in the VFL, a little bit this year and a lot more last year.
Jones and Busslinger have only played defence at all levels of footy in the last few years.

Whatever transpires within a game (injuries, multiple injuries, issues with structure/form) we have the option of moving Gardner forward or in the ruck, and he will play to a vaguely similar standard to what he plays as a defender, because he's played there recently at some level of footy.

Jones/Buss can't play forward or in the ruck because they've never played there in recent footy. Other than as a desperation move, or a first-time move, they can't do that.

It's not a ridiculously unlikely event that will see either Khamis or English injured mid-game, our two rucks. With Gardner in the team, we can throw him in the ruck at a pinch (say we don't want to ruck Lobb for whatever reason) in the way that we can't throw Buss or Jones in the ruck.

Or flexibility in the sense that we are flexible to chose to either ruck Lobb or Gardner, if we're forced to find another pinch ruckman if Khamsi or English goes down. Without Gardner, we'd imflexibly be forced to put Lobb into the ruck with no other real realistic options. The choice of the two of them is in itself flexible.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

What I find interesting is that people are more offended on Buss' behalf than Buss himself.

Buss isn't an idiot. He knows that Gardner has had better form than him in recent weeks in the VFL. He's fighting to improve his form so he can make the team and contribute to a winning AFL team and not just requesting trades so he can get games (and maybe flame out as an AFL footballer) but develop himself in a way so he can be part of a finals-quality best 22 and contribute consistently, which he isn't there yet.

Part of it is the mentality that we have to forget Buss was a top 20 pick with heightened expectations. He's a developing young fringe talent. Teams that aren't battling for a top 4 spot might be inclined to pick the younger player on balance for development purposes, but we don't have that luxury. Gardner's been in better form and has more AFL experience under his belt, and those margins in a win over Hawks could be the difference between top 4 or not.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Gardner has played over 50 AFL games and the vast majority of them were trash and totally undeserved.
Buss and Jones have been sent a very direct, clear message.

I do wonder what reality people are living in, even aside from the fact that we should be supportive of our own players (and especially so with blokes like Gardner who is a humble, hard-working, decent human being off the field).

Is this a bit of residual impact of his mid-season drafting in 2019, being rushed into the team and then playing two poor games when he did? Ok sure that was a bit of mad Bevo doing his own thing but that was long ago. I do recall him also playing poorly in the games either side of the COVID break when we played two games terribly as a team (the losses to the Pies and Saints)

But since then he's actually been a very decent AFL footballer.

His 5th game upon return partway through the 2020 season was a loss. But we then had a surprising 5-1 run after then to make (and narrowly lose) finals in which Gardner's selection vs. earlier in the season was part of the reason why we were winning games. He was decent.

Then in 2021 he started the season very well in two games before busting his shoulder in the first minute of the third game. I do explicitly recall him being good for those two games.

He was then okay when he came back from injury, better than Cordy and Young without being outstanding.

He then came 7th in 2022 in a finals-qualifying team as he was fit and good for the whole season.

He was then patchy in 2023 struggling with fitness and his last game was the GWS Ballarat Game when they ran over the top of us when we had one on the bench in the last quarter, but he had already been dropped when we had the two narrow losses to Hawks and West Coast that cost us finals. Those losses were not his fault, he wasn't in the team.

But there's a reason we're 31-22 in the games that he played (and 30-18 in the last 48 games he played, 2 in his debut season, the 2 weird games either side of the first Covid break, and the one game to return to form), because he's actually been a good player at times playing a role in a team that finds wins.

 

[dogwatch]

I do wonder what reality people are living in, even aside from the fact that we should be supportive of our own players (and especially so with blokes like Gardner who is a humble, hard-working, decent human being off the field).

Is this a bit of residual impact of his mid-season drafting in 2019, being rushed into the team and then playing two poor games when he did? Ok sure that was a bit of mad Bevo doing his own thing but that was long ago. I do recall him also playing poorly in the games either side of the COVID break when we played two games terribly as a team (the losses to the Pies and Saints)

But since then he's actually been a very decent AFL footballer.

His 5th game upon return partway through the 2020 season was a loss. But we then had a surprising 5-1 run after then to make (and narrowly lose) finals in which Gardner's selection vs. earlier in the season was part of the reason why we were winning games. He was decent.

Then in 2021 he started the season very well in two games before busting his shoulder in the first minute of the third game. I do explicitly recall him being good for those two games.

He was then okay when he came back from injury, better than Cordy and Young without being outstanding.

He then came 7th in 2022 in a finals-qualifying team as he was fit and good for the whole season.

He was then patchy in 2023 struggling with fitness and his last game was the GWS Ballarat Game when they ran over the top of us when we had one on the bench in the last quarter, but he had already been dropped when we had the two narrow losses to Hawks and West Coast that cost us finals. Those losses were not his fault, he wasn't in the team.

But there's a reason we're 31-22 in the games that he played (and 30-18 in the last 48 games he played, 2 in his debut season, the 2 weird games either side of the first Covid break, and the one game to return to form), because he's actually been a good player at times playing a role in a team that finds wins.

Your post had me wondering whether Gardner's 58% was particularly high for our current list. So here's a list sorted by winning percentage. I've made the cutoff 20 or more games but I've included those who have played 1-19 games down the bottom. (Bussllnger yet to play in a losing side!)

This is only games they have played for our club. The average for those who have played 20 or more games is 54.58% so everybody from Dale up is above the average. Only three players have lost more than they have won - Libba (only just) and L Jones on the main list. And Harmes as well, who plays his 20th game this round.



Fun fact: no player on our list has played in a draw for the Bulldogs. Some have played in draws for their former club/s.

 

[Proffessor]

I think you're overthinking it.

Gardner has rucked and played forward in the recent past in the VFL, a little bit this year and a lot more last year.
Jones and Busslinger have only played defence at all levels of footy in the last few years.

Whatever transpires within a game (injuries, multiple injuries, issues with structure/form) we have the option of moving Gardner forward or in the ruck, and he will play to a vaguely similar standard to what he plays as a defender, because he's played there recently at some level of footy.

Jones/Buss can't play forward or in the ruck because they've never played there in recent footy. Other than as a desperation move, or a first-time move, they can't do that.

It's not a ridiculously unlikely event that will see either Khamis or English injured mid-game, our two rucks. With Gardner in the team, we can throw him in the ruck at a pinch (say we don't want to ruck Lobb for whatever reason) in the way that we can't throw Buss or Jones in the ruck.

Or flexibility in the sense that we are flexible to chose to either ruck Lobb or Gardner, if we're forced to find another pinch ruckman if Khamsi or English goes down. Without Gardner, we'd imflexibly be forced to put Lobb into the ruck with no other real realistic options. The choice of the two of them is in itself flexible.

My key point about the limitations in Ryan's flexibility relates to the limited type of players he matches up well against as a defender. In the past he has really only matched up well against big opponents.

Depending on other match ups this could push Lobb or JOD, into covering medium or even small forward opponents at some stages.

I appreciate our current back-up ruck situation isn't great, hence my suggestion that I would prefer to see him play that role against the Hawks.

 

[weltschmerz]

My key point about the limitations in Ryan's flexibility relates to the limited type of players he matches up well against as a defender. In the past he has really only matched up well against big opponents.

Depending on other match ups this could push Lobb or JOD, into covering medium or even small forward opponents at some stages.

I appreciate our current back-up ruck situation isn't great, hence my suggestion that I would prefer to see him play that role against the Hawks.

Hawks are playing three tall forwards, one of whom is their second ruck Ramsden. Makes a lot of sense for Gardner to stay on him and follow him into the ruck, while JOD and Lobb take Gunston and Chol.

 

[Doggies7]

Guys GARDNER, not GARDINER

 

[FoochPackage]

I do wonder what reality people are living in, even aside from the fact that we should be supportive of our own players (and especially so with blokes like Gardner who is a humble, hard-working, decent human being off the field).

Is this a bit of residual impact of his mid-season drafting in 2019, being rushed into the team and then playing two poor games when he did? Ok sure that was a bit of mad Bevo doing his own thing but that was long ago. I do recall him also playing poorly in the games either side of the COVID break when we played two games terribly as a team (the losses to the Pies and Saints)

But since then he's actually been a very decent AFL footballer.

His 5th game upon return partway through the 2020 season was a loss. But we then had a surprising 5-1 run after then to make (and narrowly lose) finals in which Gardner's selection vs. earlier in the season was part of the reason why we were winning games. He was decent.

Then in 2021 he started the season very well in two games before busting his shoulder in the first minute of the third game. I do explicitly recall him being good for those two games.

He was then okay when he came back from injury, better than Cordy and Young without being outstanding.

He then came 7th in 2022 in a finals-qualifying team as he was fit and good for the whole season.

He was then patchy in 2023 struggling with fitness and his last game was the GWS Ballarat Game when they ran over the top of us when we had one on the bench in the last quarter, but he had already been dropped when we had the two narrow losses to Hawks and West Coast that cost us finals. Those losses were not his fault, he wasn't in the team.

But there's a reason we're 31-22 in the games that he played (and 30-18 in the last 48 games he played, 2 in his debut season, the 2 weird games either side of the first Covid break, and the one game to return to form), because he's actually been a good player at times playing a role in a team that finds wins.

What a load of spin. Well done Mr.Gardner

 

[X_box_X]

Fun fact: no player on our list has played in a draw for the Bulldogs. Some have played in draws for their former club/s.

Considering we don't have any player on our list who played for us in 2008 when we last drew a match, it's hardly a surprise.


Updated list of all time streaks without a draw:

1. Adelaide 536 games between 1994 and 2017
2. Melbourne 462 games between between 1971 and 1992
3. Geelong 406 games between 1969 and 1987
4. Hawthorn 403 games between 1968 and 1985.
5. Bulldogs 399 games between 2008 and current ***


A result other than a draw tonight will take us to 400.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Considering we don't have any player on our list who played for us in 2008 when we last drew a match, it's hardly a surprise.


Updated list of all time streaks without a draw:

1. Adelaide 536 games between 1994 and 2017
2. Melbourne 462 games between between 1971 and 1992
3. Geelong 406 games between 1969 and 1987
4. Hawthorn 403 games between 1968 and 1985.
5. Bulldogs 399 games between 2008 and current ***


A result other than a draw tonight will take us to 400.

Not at all surprising that those were the periods with the fewest draws for teams as it was also the highest scoring, where draws are much more likely.

An average VFL score increased from 71.5 in 1965 to 97 in 1969 due to rule changes (out of bounds on the full I think was introduced then).

It remained in the 90s and 100s until 2015 ish and dropped to 60 in 2020 (75 pro-rata with time) and 79 in 2021 before the rule changes like stand rule etc. has seen slight increases, completely changing the freefall decline from 2007ish when average scores were still in the high 90s.

Anyway all of this is to say that it's strange that we've had so few draws in this period when scores have been lower, because obviously you're far more likely to have draws when scores are lower, rather in the 80s and 90s when teams were winning games 130 to 110 or whatever far more often than now.

 

[Doggy Dan]

Why the pile on for Gardner? FFS his form has warranted his inclusion, just as Duryea and Bakers form has warranted them to be dropped. This is not Bevo playing ‘his boys’, it’s the complete opposite where form is dictating our changes. Wish everyone would STFU and just support the guy.

 

[Dale4captain]

Gards is coming in to play second ruck. Buss can’t do that. Not rocket science.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

What I find interesting is that people are more offended on Buss' behalf than Buss himself.

Buss isn't an idiot. He knows that Gardner has had better form than him in recent weeks in the VFL. He's fighting to improve his form so he can make the team and contribute to a winning AFL team and not just requesting trades so he can get games (and maybe flame out as an AFL footballer) but develop himself in a way so he can be part of a finals-quality best 22 and contribute consistently, which he isn't there yet.

Part of it is the mentality that we have to forget Buss was a top 20 pick with heightened expectations. He's a developing young fringe talent. Teams that aren't battling for a top 4 spot might be inclined to pick the younger player on balance for development purposes, but we don't have that luxury. Gardner's been in better form and has more AFL experience under his belt, and those margins in a win over Hawks could be the difference between top 4 or not.

Being left out for a while won’t have come as a surprise to him. Like all the developing players, he will have had plenty of chats with the coaches on how to reach the levels he’s capable of. They will all be working to ensure he’s the best he can be. Easing him into the seniors will pay off in the long run, as it has for West, JUH, Cleary, Khamis, etc

 

[Wocka]

The word salad here is truly amazing.

Regardless of how he plays, if Gardner is being picked to play second ruck he's out of the team next week when our second ruck returns.

I'm fine with that.

 

[Libba39]

Have u watched Duryea at all this year?

Yes he's cooked. But that doesn't mean Gards and Cleary is a great combo. Our ability to handle the ground ball inside 50 is not great.

 

[Doggies_13]

Bus has been terribly mismanaged here, perfect opportunity to give him a sustained crack pre-bye. We give him a debut where he looks assured and solid game one. Make him sub game two which you could see the reasoning given ports sub was a tall. Game three we drop him for Darwin again you can see the reasoning given suns went smaller and the conditions. But then we overlook him the next two weeks and now first game back post bye we basically put him third in the pecking order.

Bus has been managed very differently to our past KPDs who have been thrown the wolves when not ready and just persisted with. He looks ready yet we won’t play him.

Oh and anyone who criticises his skills as a reason he shouldn’t be in but backs Gardner in has clearly forgotten some of the absolute shockers Gardner used to have on a weekly basis in the afl by foot

 

[TiAn_]

Probably not worth getting this worked up over our 22nd player

 

[Mutt]

Gardner brings a lot of flexibility and is a better player than many give him credit for. He is depth, not necessarily best-22, so stop judging him against unrealistic standards.

 

[go_sports_team]

The melts make us stronger!

 

[House_of_Dahl]

The word salad here is truly amazing.

Regardless of how he plays, if Gardner is being picked to play second ruck he's out of the team next week when our second ruck returns.

I'm fine with that.

Going to be some conflicted fans. If he dominates that is great and he'll help us win. But also means he can't be dropped haha

 

[JohnnySteel]

Hope JJ is just illness & not surprise calf niggle. He makes us a lot better when he is in the side.