Prediction Changes Rd7 vs Carlton

[davo999]

I know Duursma would probably take his wing back , I wonder if he could play half forward /mid and Farrell stay on the wing .
ive been liking Farrell working back to half back , having a bit of a run in and a nice pass or lurking for a long bomb

 

[ROBBBO]

Out Ebert susp
Sutcliffe inj

In Rockliff
Duursma

Like for like. If we are going to bring in any height it has to be in defence. Mc Kenzie has done OK but I would not be against bringing Jack Watts in and McKenzie is the likely one to drop. Bringing Georgiades in at this stage is only going to complicate matters. We saw Marshall and Westhoff competing with Dixon against GWS. We do not need a fourth tall competing for the ball.

McKenzie dropped ?????
Surely you're having a laugh

 

[RossFC]

Bit of talk about Farrell and Duursma having to make way for each other - would have thought Motlop should be the one to get pushed out

Why either? Farrell can go to the fwd flank and Ebert goes out.

 

[snozulu]

Georgiades and Duursma for Ebo and Sutcliffe

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Troll / fake account?

Did the reality of Haynes game upset you?

 

[Duckimus Prime]

The game against GWS last year we went without a key forward at all, running with Ryder and Westhoff. Ryder never showed a thing as a KPF for us and Westhoff is at his best as a 3rd tall who can roam.

Dougal Howard played as well. We had three tall players in the forward line who could compete for high marks.

BOTH of Dixon and Marshall played in the SANFL that weekend.

Sack Hinkley.

Dixon was in no mental state to be playing AFL football that week. He'd said it himself that he needed to go back to the SANFL to get his head right.

 

[Port01]

If you think there will be non forced changes you are dreaming.

assuming Ebert and Sutcliffe out, will be Rockliff and duursma in, pretty sure they are next on the ‘depth’ list. No one cares about balance.

 

[Doctor Feel]

I think bringing in Georgiadis tips the scale to too tall. I dont see room for him unless another tall goes out.

Our list is supremely unbalanced with regards to the positions our talls play. No talls who can slot into defence besides Westhoff.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Yeah correlation between playing more tall forwards that are genuine KPF's. Not correlation between winning games and Marshall's inclusion.

Besides we always play 1.5 key forwards.

Except there absolutely, objectively is a clear correlation between winning games and Marshall's inclusion. That's just an objective fact. It's not up for debate.

You can argue if you like about whether or not correlation equals causation in this case, but to say that there is no correlation just exposes you as somebody who doesn't know what they're talking about.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Except there absolutely, objectively is a clear correlation between winning games and Marshall's inclusion. That's just an objective fact. It's not up for debate.

Correlation != Causation.

Unless you believe the US should stop importing oil from Norway in order to reduce deaths from run away trains.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Dougal Howard played as well. We had three tall players in the forward line who could compete for high marks.

Dixon was in no mental state to be playing AFL football that week. He'd said it himself that he needed to go back to the SANFL to get his head right.

I'll concede that point, but Howard had spent most of the season playing in defence. It's not just about players being tall, as that game should prove beyond a shadow of a doubt.

We drummed the forward craft out of Howard by shunting him to defence to full a list management problem, Ryder never had forward craft, and Westhoff is at his worst if being used as a stay at home forward where a key defender is looking after him.

Correlation != Causation.

Unless you believe the US should stop importing oil from Norway in order to reduce deaths from run away trains.
View attachment 912521

Except there is causation, and very obviously so. Some of us have spent literally Hinkley's entire reign demanding we pick and develop more tall forwards for a variety of reasons, chiefly because our ball movement is awful when we don't have adequate targets and we have spent most of the last 5 years completely unable to score against any team that can defend competently. We're now playing 2 genuine key talls + Westhoff as a 3rd tall and our forward line looks more functional than it has in memory. Imagine if we hadn't played Marshall in the SANFL for 11 games last season and he'd been able to build some chemistry with Dixon and build his own craft.

Again, Charlie Dixon would be the AA Full Forward if the team was picked now despite missing round 1. That hasn't happened by accident. He didn't suddenly learn to play football.

 

[El_Scorcho]

This hasn't happened in the last two weeks. And the only way it actually happens is if Marshall gets dangerous as a target himself. Otherwise, the intercepting defender that Marshall is supposed to be dragging away will just zone off him.

As for the great job done on Haynes. Haynes averages 8.17 intercept possession in 2020. He got 11 against Port.

2020 AFL League Intercepts Per Game Leaders

2020 AFL League Intercepts Per Game Leaders.

www.footywire.com

What's the solution to this then? You're angling for him to be dropped. What do you think the alternative is? What should we be doing differently?

Marshall will get more consistently dangerous as a target the more he plays. He'll learn to make better runs to support Charlie the more he plays with Charlie. Our KPF cupboard consists of a 1 gamer and a couple of ruckman. GWS have one of the better key defensive units in the league.

We're currently a game clear on top of the ladder at 160% with the 2nd best attack in the league. Our primary key target is a consensus AA full forward at this stage of the season. You're questioning the position of the 26 gamer 2nd key forward who is 4 goals off of Coleman pace because he didn't win his position against a 28 year old 134 gamer who made the AA squad last year.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I'm not saying we should drop Marshall. I just don't believe there is much, if any, correlation between him playing and us winning. I do believe there is correlation between two specialist talls playing and us winning. But that is different.

You could argue that it's just playing 2 specialist talls, and I wouldn't disagree that that's certainly a big part of it. Marshall's winning percentage is undeniable though, especially when compared with the games where we don't play him.

 

[Powerage]

Except there absolutely, objectively is a clear correlation between winning games and Marshall's inclusion. That's just an objective fact. It's not up for debate.

You can argue if you like about whether or not correlation equals causation in this case, but to say that there is no correlation just exposes you as somebody who doesn't know what they're talking about.

You are right. The two posts, which I think I wrote at 4am after a few drinks, contained the word correlation instead of causation.

Thank you for pointing that out to me and exposing me as someone who ****ed up his statistical terminology and therefore doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to football . Its a relief to finally be outed and I did hate statistics at University.

While we are being pedants Schultenfest, what you have said (bolded) is that Marshall could be included in the side, break down during warm up, and we would maintain the same winning percentage even though he didn't play. I assume that exposes you in some way?

 

[raptalia]

McKenzie dropped ?????
Surely you're having a laugh

It 's either McKenzie, Clurey or Jonas. Somehow we have to get some height into our defence because sooner or later we are going to get caught out. I do not dispute that Mc Kenzie has done well but he hasn't been a stand out and he hasn't done any better than the other two over this disjointed season.

 

[Powerage]

You could argue that it's just playing 2 specialist talls, and I wouldn't disagree that that's certainly a big part of it. Marshall's winning percentage is undeniable though, especially when compared with the games where we don't play him.

We don't know its CAUSATION though because we have rarely played two specialist forwards. If we had played Frampton for 10 games and Georgiades for 10 games and the winning percentage with two talls dropped substantially below the winning rato with Marshall in the team then I would say yeah there is something there.

But I don't want Marshall dropped. Yeah, he looks to have improved this year and we need to get games into him. If he plays a few stinkers in a row though I would say its time to give Georgiades a go in his place. Also, someone does need to look at our tall forward structure because our talls look to be getting in each others way too often.

 

[Papa G]

Thread proves Port supporters can be dumb campaigners too.

 

[Adz2332]

Thread proves Port supporters can be dumb campaigners too.

haha agreed!
i really struggle to see the point of view of some people.
i get that not everyone has played a lot of sport or get how a team / balance works. but come on!!!

Does give you a laugh though

 

[MrChow]

Are we still in a rebuild or are we a legit premiership contender?

And does this affect selection?

 

[Papa G]

Are we still in a rebuild or are we a legit premiership contender?

And does this affect selection?

This year, we are a legit contender. If we get our team balance right and Hinkley coaches competently, we can beat anyone.

 

[bringbackbucky]

Love to know if Bergmann and Williams are in the conversation. Hope something stupid like their GPS numbers isn't keeping them from being considered...

 

[Papa G]

The problem for the new recruits and somebody like Jack Watts, is they have no real exposed form.

Not having reserves games hurts their chances. Essentially they are competing on their training and or reputation. They aren't game hardened. Nobody is knocking the door down because they haven't got the opportunity to do so.

Injuries will come. Players might start getting rested. Ladhams will get a game at some stage. Watts will probably too. Bergman, Williams also. But right now, they are probably down the pecking order as they are unproven or don't have the form to justify it.

We are in this season up to our necks and it's probably not the right time to be experimenting/playing the kids, because at this stage we probably don't need to.
I see Rockliff and Bonner as depth players, but they are probably still ahead of any of the debutantes (bar Georgiadis) at this stage. Our back line talls were all good on the weekend. I don't see a spot for Watts at the moment. I still prefer Westhoff as the extra tall defender/second Ruck.

 

[DaTBird187]

Correlation != Causation.

Unless you believe the US should stop importing oil from Norway in order to reduce deaths from run away trains.
View attachment 912521

Also Duckimus Prime posts correlate with thundercloud likes.

 

[El_Scorcho]

We don't know its CAUSATION though because we have rarely played two specialist forwards. If we had played Frampton for 10 games and Georgiades for 10 games and the winning percentage with two talls dropped substantially below the winning rato with Marshall in the team then I would say yeah there is something there.

But I don't want Marshall dropped. Yeah, he looks to have improved this year and we need to get games into him. If he plays a few stinkers in a row though I would say its time to give Georgiades a go in his place. Also, someone does need to look at our tall forward structure because our talls look to be getting in each others way too often.

You're talking about correlation again. I agree that we don't have a big enough control sample size to know whether it's just a genuine 2.5 KPF setup or Marshall specifically that leads to us winning more.

I think the causation is pretty clear though. Marshall is easily the best developing tall forward we've had since Tredrea. His skill level and reading of the play is elite, as is his workrate both offensively and defensively. We can see how Marshall's footy improves us as a side and makes us more likely to win when compared with the likes of Frampton/Eddy/Ryder playing the 2nd KPF role.

The chemistry between key forwards isn't as bad as you're suggesting. I'll reiterate that Dixon is the consensus AA full forward at this point of the season and we're the 2nd highest scoring team, and that that chemistry will only build by playing them together more.

 

[Bluesclues2020]

Should be an interesting game. Weitiering will get the job on Charlie & Jones will get jobs on both Hoff and Marshall

Who plays on Eddie and Martin? Both are in good form

Best of luck