Preview Changes Round 10 vs Carlton

[lachy]

Hitouts mean close to nothing. Especially for a 2nd ruck.

We have dominated clearances and stoppage for years when Timmy consistently lost the ruck duel.

But have we when it mattered against top 4 teams in big games against decent rucks?

No finals wins outside 2016 and 2021, never top 4. The last quarter and a half of the 21 grand final with Jackson and Gawn feeding their mids on a platter suggests winning clearances against weaker teams due to having Bont and Libba in there would suggest simple clearance statistics also mean nothing unless they result in scoring opportunties.

Being slaughtered in hit outs certainly doesn't help

 

[bigbulldog67]

Hitouts mean close to nothing. Especially for a 2nd ruck.

We have dominated clearances and stoppage for years when Timmy consistently lost the ruck duel.

Theres losing the ruck duel and there’s losing the ruck duel (see Emmett vs Meek & Lewis), Smith can somewhat negate the ruck to an extent, hence those post ruck clearance stats posted above. What Hawks did to Emmett was catastrophic and not something that a midfield can overcome.

Theres something to be said for having a big body who competes in the ruck and throws his body around at ground level to help the other mids. Even if Bev doesn’t agree

We would have been a much much better team over the last few years if we had a Nank type quality ruck. Thats what our gameplan requires, if we were setup to not dominate clearances like some other teams are then sure the ruck situation we had would have been fine.

You can’t set yourself up as a team that relies on stoppage dominance but has a weak ruck, makes zero sense

 

[bigbulldog67]

But have we when it mattered against top 4 teams in big games against decent rucks?

No finals wins outside 2016 and 2021, never top 4. The last quarter and a half of the 21 grand final with Jackson and Gawn feeding their mids on a platter suggests winning clearances against weaker teams due to having Bont and Libba in there would suggest simple clearance statistics also mean nothing unless they result in scoring opportunties.

Being slaughtered in hit outs certainly doesn't help

Nailed it, we’ve watched time and time again how important it is, ie literally losing a grand final because of it as you mentioned. Yet these people don’t want to open their eyes

I honestly don’t know what it would take for some people on here to admit the ruck is actually an important part of the game (moreso for us)

 

[BEaston]

Theres losing the ruck duel and there’s losing the ruck duel (see Emmett vs Meek & Lewis), Smith can somewhat negate the ruck to an extent, hence those post ruck clearance stats posted above. What Hawks did to Emmett was catastrophic and not something that a midfield can overcome.

Theres something to be said for having a big body who competes in the ruck and throws his body around at ground level to help the other mids. Even if Bev doesn’t agree

We would have been a much much better team over the last few years if we had a Nank type quality ruck. Thats what our gameplan requires, if we were setup to not dominate clearances like some other teams are then sure the ruck situation we had would have been fine.

You can’t set yourself up as a team that relies on stoppage dominance but has a weak ruck, makes zero sense

Our score source differential between stoppage and turnover has been relatively equal over the last 6 seasons. Some years its more TOs, some more stoppage.
It's a BF myth that we're only setup to score from stoppages.

 

[BEaston]

But have we when it mattered against top 4 teams in big games against decent rucks?

No finals wins outside 2016 and 2021, never top 4. The last quarter and a half of the 21 grand final with Jackson and Gawn feeding their mids on a platter suggests winning clearances against weaker teams due to having Bont and Libba in there would suggest simple clearance statistics also mean nothing unless they result in scoring opportunties.

Being slaughtered in hit outs certainly doesn't help

It worked to get us into that position. You can't pick and choose when to apply the situation that suits your argument.

I'd say there were other factors at play for the 21 GF.

 

[Foxman98]

It worked to get us into that position. You can't pick and choose when to apply the situation that suits your argument.

I'd say there were other factors at play for the 21 GF.

We played a dog shit power and bombers Brisbane the only decent team we beat

If we had to play the cats we were toast like usual

 

[bigbulldog67]

Our score source differential between stoppage and turnover has been relatively equal over the last 6 seasons. Some years its more TOs, some more stoppage.
It's a BF myth that we're only setup to score from stoppages.

I didn’t say anything about scoring from stoppages, we play a high possession, territory style game plan which relies on winning stoppages and keeping the ball in our forward half. Scores from turnovers are generally from our high press, which only works when you’re dominating stoppages and keeping the ball going forward in your half…

Don’t worry about the stats, anyone with eyes should be able to see a trend that when we dominate stoppages were generally in the game and win more often than not. When we’re beaten around the ball (even slightly) we generally lose badly.

If you don’t simply think as a team we base our game around stoppage dominance then I don’t think this conversation is worth going any further to be completely honest

 

[BEaston]

I didn’t say anything about scoring from stoppages, we play a high possession, territory style game plan which relies on winning stoppages and keeping the ball in our forward half. Scores from turnovers are generally from our high press, which only works when you’re dominating stoppages and keeping the ball going forward in your half…

Don’t worry about the stats, anyone with eyes should be able to see a trend that when we dominate stoppages were generally in the game and win more often than not. When we’re beaten around the ball (even slightly) we generally lose badly.

If you don’t simply think as a team we base our game around stoppage dominance then I don’t think this conversation is worth going any further to be completely honest

Almost all games if a team dominates stoppages, they would win the game. That's nothing groundbreaking.

I think you'd be right in some past years but not always this year, or last year. We have played a few different structures. Some games we've hardly run a forward press at all (especially in the first 4 rounds), where we've placed more importance on rebound. We beat Lions losing clearances for example.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

This is not correct. Teams sack their coach because they're generally playing terribly, so in most cases they aren't favoured to win with or without a new coach. Results for teams against the line (which is +13.5 Carl) are very strongly in favour of the team sacking their coach. Of course there have been some big upsets as well. So my expectation will be that the Blues come out and outperform expectations.

The problem for WB is the above combined with losing English. It hurts your structure and adds to the quality players out and the large number of depth players already getting a game.

So did you put some money on the Dees, now Hawks have lost their key forward and key back?

 

[Foxman98]

But I read all those posts saying Smith won us the game with his Gawn-like 6 disposal BOG performance last week?…

People keep arguing with me and being surprised but I’ve said for weeks our coaches don’t want to waste the backup ruck role on a bloke that can only be used in the ruck or on the bench.

You and the coaches were bang on the money again this week

 

[TiAn_]

You and the coaches were bang on the money again this week

Yeah we lost because we didn’t select a bloke that conceded 11 clearances to Liam Reidy today. Braindead take.

 

[Foxman98]

Yeah we lost because we didn’t select a bloke that conceded 11 clearances to Liam Reidy today. Braindead take.

No we lost because Emmett is uncompetitive and got slaughtered on ball or did you miss tha part

 

[bigbulldog67]

Yeah we lost because we didn’t select a bloke that conceded 11 clearances to Liam Reidy today. Braindead take.

Weird hill to die on bro, just admit Emmett shouldn’t have been selected

Whether it changed the result or not (it didn’t)

You died on the Sanders is shit hill, then Buss now weirdly on Emmett? L takes

Anymore wisdom for us?

 

[Foxman98]

Weird hill to die on bro, just admit Emmett shouldn’t have been selected

Whether it changed the result or not (it didn’t)

You died on the Sanders is shit hill, then Buss now weirdly on Emmett? L takes

Anymore wisdom for us?

Literally doesn’t even have to be Smith Christ Gards is a more competitive “ruck”