Prediction Changes: Round 11 vs Hawthorn + Pre-match discussion

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ozzie69

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Jun 28, 2013
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Changes this week provide an interesting dilemma – albeit a better dilemma than the past few weeks. We have Hogan, Aish and Hill as potential ins, but on watching the replay there aren’t many that didn’t perform.

Even the usual escaped goats of Bewley, Colyer, Shultz and Conca all played their roles quite well. Matera was a bit quiet but was still pressuring well.

On top of this, we likely have another really wet game this week, followed by a five-day break until the next game. The wet won’t suit the tall skinny types much, but some big bodies will be needed.

We beat Collingwood with speed and pressure – so dropping a small for a tall would be a mistake.

Aish definitely needs to come in, but who to replace? Mitch was good on the weekend. With the wet and after a couple of games, I would replace Frederick with Aish for the next game. Hill could replace Watson as a bigger body for this game. Hogan may need to wait a week. With Tabs, Lobb/Darcy and Fyfe/Mundy as forwards we can’t really add a tall unless someone is carrying something and misses.

The next week off a five-day break will mean we have to rotate a few. Fyfe and Mundy should rest for the Carlton game – perhaps Walters back and maybe Valente? Hogan could give either Tabs or Lobb a rest – or even Darcy I guess.
 

showemhowtorock

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Hogan has had zero continuity. Last year, once he got himself into a bit of a rhythm with a number of games under his belt, he was really starting to show his value. Given time to string some games together he'll really be a key member the team.
y'all keep questioning how Matera dropped out of form so quickly... look at who was in the team when he kicked them.
Having a key pillar of his value there makes our forward line function better instantly
 

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Van_Dyke

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Conca apparently mentioned Stef Giro as a potential in. Wtf?
relevant quote on Giro “We also have you Stefan Giro coming back for his first game in some time which would be really momentous for him and the club because he’s really well-loved.” i’m going to guess that’s for a scratch match, theres surely no way he’s going straight to AFL without a practice match.

also said that Hogan’s definitely fit and available, Sonny and Aish ‘touch and go’. (he’s had this spot on radio for most of the season, what he’s said about players and health has definitely not always matched)
 

FreoRicci

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Hogan key word is definitely continuity. He needs a patch of 5-10 weeks consistently on the field. He comes in for 3-4 and suffers an injury. He was looking okay before his calf. He knew he was struggling for goals but he still gave a lead and a link up. Fyfe is interesting here. Lobb will probably take his spot in the forward line, whereas Fyfe May go back into the midfield for 80% rather then 60% game time.
We’ve gone from hardly any tall depth to suddenly elite talls wanting to play. Just have to get the balance right.
Hogan comes in I’d rather Matera out as he hardly does much defensively. Frederick stays in purely for his pressure and pace, which will be needed if Hogan comes back.
 

Paracleet

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Jun 30, 2011
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Up to 50 mm rain forecast Sunday into Monday preceding a five day break. I would consider resting one of Lobb / Darcy / Tabs in addition to whatever other changes are made. Two if they are prepared to play Meek (be handy if we had a proper developing ruck / forward on the list right about now).
 

DaveLister

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With Fyfe playing more forward the next 4 -5 years, it is going to be interesting what we do with that forwardline.

By 31 you'd think he'll be 60% forward at least with the way our kids are coming along. I've said I'm not sure if a Lobb, Hogan and Tabs forwardline works since its too tall and slow. a 31, 32, 33 year old Fyfe and Walters isnt going to make it any quicker...

Are Sturt and Henry enough to make up for that and in addition, every forward line seems to have a defensive minded forwarded. Walters, Lobb, Hogan, Tabs and Fyfe are not defensive minded and Henry and Sturt while able to provide pressure, seem like they are offensive players first.

Interesting balance conundrum moving forward that probably wont matter since we'll be lucky to have 4 of the 7 above on the field at any one time
I'm of the opinion that pressure forwards aren't doing their job unless they apply pressure through scoring as well as physical pressure on the opposition ball carrier/ carrier's outlet targets. Henry and Sturt can do both, Walter's was small forward under Ross so I can't imagine that he's the worst at physical pressure.

The other 4 I agree to some extent.
Fyfe's got to shed to bulk as he ages and moves into a forward line role, I think he can improve his physical pressure but then again his scoring pressure is elite and possibly makes up for it.

Hogan has scope to work defensively, and Lobb to a degree. I want Lobb floating and fwd half intercepting rushed kicks from the opposition who are being pursued the better better physical pressurers.

Tabs is really the only one I think has very little scope to add defensive aspects to his game but if he continues his formline into a better and more cohesive team then he's still worth a spot in the forward line.
 

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MadEyeEmmy

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Tough one this week. The only player who I’d like to see dropped is Matera. But Hogan in for Matera seems like too many talls? Especially for a likely wet weather game.

Gonna back JLo to make the right call. A win over Hawthorn after so many years would be nice.
 

FreoRicci

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Tough one this week. The only player who I’d like to see dropped is Matera. But Hogan in for Matera seems like too many talls? Especially for a likely wet weather game.

Gonna back JLo to make the right call. A win over Hawthorn after so many years would be nice.
I’d imagine if it’s forecasted rain- Hogan stays out. Simple.
Plays against Carlton.

Matera doesn’t strike me as having confidence in the wet either. He was poor against Geelong in a game perfectly suited for his role/type. Someone like Henry perhaps, but he won’t play.
 

FreoRicci

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Up to 50 mm rain forecast Sunday into Monday preceding a five day break. I would consider resting one of Lobb / Darcy / Tabs in addition to whatever other changes are made. Two if they are prepared to play Meek (be handy if we had a proper developing ruck / forward on the list right about now).
I’d go in small and leave Tabs out and kept Lobb? But Darcy was rubbish against Geelong in the wet. Like a water log tbh

Lobb/Tabs and that’s it. That way Tabs can have more impact given he only had 4 disposals.
 

Paracleet

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Jun 30, 2011
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Some players will have to be rotated out this game in order to equalise the strength of the side across the two matches in five days, not just for the second game. I predict at least two "managed" changed for Monday.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Some players will have to be rotated out this game in order to equalise the strength of the side across the two matches in five days, not just for the second game. I predict at least two "managed" changed for Monday.
Think the managing will be delayed till the Carlton game.

Dont think you manage before the hectic period actually sets in and they've just had an 8 day break
 

Paracleet

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Think the managing will be delayed till the Carlton game.

Dont think you manage before the hectic period actually sets in and they've just had an 8 day break
Do you think they will want to go into a game off a 5 days break with 18, 19, 20 guys not fresh? Because thats what will happen unless they rest a few for the first one. The next game after the Carlton is also likely to be 6 or less day turn around.
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Do you think they will want to go into a game off a 5 days break with 18, 19, 20 guys not fresh? Because thats what will happen unless they rest a few for the first one. The next game after the Carlton is also likely to be 6 or less day turn around.
Could argue Hogan, Fyfe, Aish, Freddy, Walters, Hill, Blakely, Watson are all fresh given they've had a break due to injury or opportunity
 

Paracleet

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Could argue Hogan, Fyfe, Aish, Freddy, Walters, Hill, Blakely, Watson are all fresh given they've had a break due to injury or opportunity
I mean fresh as in fully recovered from the 'damage' inflicted by a game. That's going to be more or less the same whether you've playing your first game after a layoff, or after 10 7 days breaks. In fact I'd have thought it'd be worse. Certainly I feel more stiff after a run when I haven't had one for 3 weeks rather than after the regular one or two a week.

Anyway we'll see!
 

freodog

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Is it just me or has Hogan become gun-shy with kicking goals. He does some handy things around the ground but doesn’t hit the scoreboard which our team needs.
 

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