Prediction Changes round 19 V Lions @ The Gabba

[olimauldon]

If anyone selling 2-3 tickets to the Gabba let me know please and thank you

 

[BEaston]

On displayed AFL 2025 season form, Buss is ahead of Gardner, including as a FB.

Also ahead of Jones though, who you're pushing for selection.

 

[BEaston]

I mentioned in a reply with another poster earlier how I'd looked into umpire bias before (expected FK counts vs actual based on rolling averages).

Nick Foot has the worst impact on us purely based off FK count (based on data since 2015). Our differential ends up, on average, around -2.6 worse than normal if he's umpiring. So if we'd usually expect 1 more free than our opponent, having Nick Foot umpire means we'd expect to get -1.6 differential instead. Williamson used to be positive for us, but his impact is now in the negatives (-0.3) thanks to this year...

There are worse combinations though for other sides. Nicholas McGinness has a -5.9 impact on West Coast.

Or on the other side of things, Nathan Toner has a +4.3 impact on Sydney's differential.

Was this using python off AFL tables?

 

[BEaston]

VFL are playing up there on Saturday aswell.

Nice. There's hope for a Gardy selection yet.

 

[dogwatch]

Nice. There's hope for a Gardy selection yet.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Was this using python off AFL tables?

fitzRoy package in R, to get from AFLtables. It’s super user friendly once you get used to it

 

[TheScriptorWL]

Novel idea

No, off the back of the last two weeks. Moving Darcy back Is a better idea on paper. Nah, the two pillars must stand in thay forward line for Naughton to be useful

 

[BulldogMuscle]

 

[Foxman98]

View attachment 2369984

Facebook will be in fine form tonight

 

[Bulldogs85]

Facebook will be in fine form tonight

It’s in fine form every Thursday night regardless

 

[Foxman98]

It’s in fine form every Thursday night regardless

I always enjoy it but I love it more when Gards/McNeil are named

 

[Wocka]

Jones, Lobb & JOD shared a laptop watching Brisbane plays.
Make of that what you will.

 

[Mojorisin]

Jones, Lobb & JOD shared a laptop watching Brisbane plays.
Make of that what you will.

Jones does alot of work with JOD, Lobb and the other defenders. It's why I'd be more then happy for him to stay on next year. Essentially a coach on the playing list, if injuries do hit he will be able to fill a hole much like Goldy at Essendon.

 

[Chicago1]

It’s always a Victoria thing….nothing here on the Sunny Coast and I’m all over all week between Brissy and North. People have it and I’ve heard of people having it but no one has been wiped out for weeks that I know of.

Maybe I’ve just got a super strong immune system…..

And the weather is a shit tonne better so you don’t get sick

Don’t miss being stuck on trains with zombies staring at their phones, rugged up in practically blankets, coughing and sneezing….and you’ve still got a good 3 months of shit weather to go

Only thing I miss is live footy…..but I get to see that this week so all is good in my world

Glad that you're able to see the game live. Ain't it grand? You appreciate just being there when the chance arrives. Fingers crossed for a win.

 

[Wocka]

Jones does alot of work with JOD, Lobb and the other defenders. It's why I'd be more then happy for him to stay on next year. Essentially a coach on the playing list, if injuries do hit he will be able to fill a hole much like Goldy at Essendon.

They were seated in different rows and passed it between. They watched it individually, maybe that means Jones could be in

 

[grassman75]

Jones, Lobb & JOD shared a laptop watching Brisbane plays.
Make of that what you will.

Thought they might be watching the 2021 semi on Pornhub

 

[grassman75]

They were seated in different rows and passed it between. They watched it individually, maybe that means Jones could be in

Wocka doing gods work in the virgin lounge

 

[Wocka]

Wocka doing gods work in the virgin lounge

That was on the plane that's just landed Grassy. Where are the beers on tonight

 

[grassman75]

That was on the plane that's just landed Grassy. Where are the beers on tonight

I was in Brissy today….back on the Sunny Coast tonight.

Will be down for the game tomorrow….going to the Norman Hotel for a pre match feed and beers with clients. If you are aro7nd I’m sure there will be beers after too. Most like
Lay at the Aussie National on Vulture St

 

[RWnBluey]

Both Jones and Buku have flown up with the team

 

[MaxiBont]

Both Jones and Buku have flown up with the team

VFL game is also in Brisbane.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Prefacing this by saying I like JOD as a prospect and thought his month in the middle of the season (Port, Gold Coast, Hawthorn games) were of a really high quality

Of the 105 players who have been involved in 10 or more defensive one on one contests this season, JOD has the 7th worst losing percentage at 41.2% (Mitch McGovern

11

Mitch Mcgovern

Age

31

Ht

190cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

189.8

3star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

1.1

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.9

3star

MG

179.6

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

MG

218.0

4star

, Harrison Petty

35

Harrison Petty

Age

26

Ht

197cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

120.7

2star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

127.6

3star

, Aidan Corr

4

Aidan Corr

Age

31

Ht

195cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.2

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.9

4star

MG

291.0

4star

D

13.9

3star

K

11.1

4star

HB

2.7

2star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

291.0

4star

D

7.2

2star

K

2.8

1star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

, Tom Brown, Daniel Turner, Sandy Brock those worse than him)

Also over the last five weeks, the defensive one on one loss percentages of our key defenders. Lobb 37.5%, JOD 60%, Coffield 60%

Pretty alarming numbers which support the eye test

 

[Hutchymundo]

If Gards is selected we riot!!

 

[Mucat]

Personally if Jones is still underdone and not available for selection, I would bring in Selwood who is a big body and can intercept and play on 3rd talls. Would leave Coffield in andHE IDEA have Truck, Coff, Sellwood all rotating through helping the KPDs in the air and providing run the other way.

I would look to change the structure a bit to provide more support for the defenders and less situations where they are one out or battling against a fast counter attack. Part of this is not turning the ball over as much up the field, but that's an obvious for whatever structure we go with. However instead of having an extra come up to the contest as frequently, I might look to have one drop back in a sweeper role or if Brisbane get a bit of a run on, try to have a loose player back at times to gain some ascendency.

If we haven't believe 3 KPDs is the answer most of the season, I don't think it's going to be the answer this week when the only available option to bring in is Gardner. Now if Jones was fit and had some good form behind him, then he could have come in and drop off one of Sellwood or Coff from above to allow JOD / Lobb to play a bit more of an intercepting 3rd tall role.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Its team selection day.

Dis Gun B Gud.