Prediction Changes round 19 V Lions @ The Gabba

[Libbaaaa]

First game in QLD for the club since 2022, crazy.

 

[MaxiBont]

First game in QLD for the club since 2022, crazy.

That was an important win as well. We were 0-2 going against the 2-0 Lions.

Felt like we were going to win that game for some reason. Feel the same about this game.

 

[dogwatch]

First game in QLD for the club since 2022, crazy.

Probably just making up for 2020.

From 2020-2024 we played 14 games at the Gabba or Carrara. That’s an average of nearly three a year. Crazy.

But of course most of them were in 2020 in front of tiny crowds.

 

[Mofra]

So pretty much what 90% of anyone who has watched us in the last few years was advocating for. Buss, Buku or Jones had to come back in to free up Lobb.

Coffield is meant to be that player.... but just isn't.

 

[TiAn_]

It seems like a simple and compelling point that Lloyd makes ... until you realise the video footage doesn't match the analysis.

Take another look.
(1) He says there is always Jones or Khamis blocking or "in the background", blah, blah. However in no more than two of those examples is the presence of Jones or O'Donnell a factor in giving Lobb a clear run at the intercepting mark. And at least one of those two examples is debatable.

(2) Then have a look where ALL of those intercepts are taken. Between the arcs. Not caught man-on-man deep in the 50.
Now compare that to where the ball was in the the second reel - the footage they showed from last Saturday. All of it was delivered inside the defensive 50, usually deep.
So he's comparing apples and oranges.

(3) Then look at the delivery in the two sets of footage. The first set (from earlier games) is from high bombs out of defence. There were no intercepts of spearing passes. The ball has lots of hang time for a tall interceptor such as Lobb to drift across and take the mark. But the second reel (footage from Saturday) showed Adelaide players with loads of time delivering unpressured pinpoint passes to forwards:

(a) Rozee to Fogarty who was 10m clear of his opponent when the ball left Rozee's boot,​

(b) a Crow running straight through the middle delivering to a leading Thilthorpe 40m out,​

(c) Walker running around on his left with a leisurely well-weighted pass over the top to Thilthorpe running back toward goal,​

(d) a long but fairly low pass to the pocket where Walker had sagged off his opponent and found oodles of space,​

(e) a similar one to the opposite pocket where a long kick to advantage found Thilthorpe, again running back.​

​

(f) Only the final one was materially different where Thilthorpe snatched the mark off the top of a pack in the goal square.​

I'd argue that all but the last were a result of a player delivering inside 50 being allowed too much time to spot up a target. So they were nearly all low, accurate kicks for uncontested or easy marks to the tall forward.
Once again it's apples and oranges.

I'm not saying Lloyd's point is totally wrong. I agree with him that Lobb's best work IS as an interceptor (and also as a director of the defensive unit when he's allowed to roam the d50). It's more that Lloyd's two reels don't actually prove the point he's trying to make. They show quite different phases of play.

A better analysis would acknowledge those reel differences. It would first ask "how can Adelaide just stroll through the middle with uncontested delivery to Adelaide's trio of goalscorers?" and "what defensive system do you need to stop that from happening?" and "how can the role I'm talking about work just as well deep inside the d50 as it does when those easily cut out high bombs are floated into the space between the arcs?"

As we've been discussing over the last few days the answer has multiple parts.

Firstly you have to stop or minimise the easy transitions and unpressured delivery into the 50 (no examples of which were shown in the footage from earlier matches). More pressure, more effective tackling, stop the switching, etc.

The second part is where I do agree with Lloyd that you need someone - Lobb, or another player - to act as a sweeper. That alternative sweeper (if Lobb is needed to man up because of his unique height) cannot be Khamis for fairly obvious reasons. It could perhaps be Jones but he's not as quick as he use to be and might not even be match fit yet. It could be Busslinger but I'm not sure he has the physique, leap and confidence to play that role at AFL level yet. Or it could be Gardner whose main weapon used to be just the spoil, but this year has been taking a lot of intercept marks in the VFL. Also that last Thilthorpe mark in the pack is the sort of ball that Gardner has always been good at killing. A final possibility is O'Donnell, meaning his current role would be handed over to one of the others mentioned.

Then we also need to consider what we are losing if we remove a smaller player from the defensive unit to fit in a taller sweeper. It's probably Coffield (but there are other ways of doing it). If you remove a smaller defender and have a sweeper without responsibility to mark a particular opponent there is a risk that the loose opponent will scoop up the spilled ball and you still end up conceding easy goals. So the sweeper has to know how to play his role, and be confident he can take the clean mark or at least smash the ball over the boundary line. Creating a spillage to open play is not good enough.

It’s lazy analysis, all of the examples from the weekend were marks on leads, whereas the other examples were intercepts of long high kicks.

The problem is how we have the whole team defending which is giving acres of space, not that one of the defenders is 5cm too short.

 

[Pencil case]

Coffield is meant to be that player.... but just isn't.

I thought Coffield had a great game last week. One of the few than can hold their head high. I’m still not sold on him though

 

[dogwatch]

I thought Coffield had a great game last week. One of the few than can hold their head high. I’m still not sold on him though

I wouldn’t have said great but he was far from our worst. I couldn’t agree with the pile on. It seems that once people here make up their minds that he’s a dud they find it hard to see him through any other lens.

Anyway I think Mofra’s point was not so much a critique of Coff’s game. It was more that he can’t be the player that frees up Lobb to be a free-ranging interceptor.

 

[Munnez]

I thought Coffield had a great game last week. One of the few than can hold their head high. I’m still not sold on him though

Unfortunately Coffield has lost the athleticism that would make him effective in that role. He just doesn't have the closing speed any more, still reads the play well marking is solid enough.

Injuries have robbed him sadly can't see him being the answer and the club either apparently. Hence bringing in Sellwood and Walker in the MSD

 

[TiAn_]

I wouldn’t have said great but he was far from our worst. I couldn’t agree with the pile on. It seems that once people here make up their minds that he’s a dud they find it hard to see him through any other lens.

Anyway I think Mofra’s point was not so much a critique of Coff’s game. It was more that he can’t be the player that frees up Lobb to be a free-ranging interceptor.

Coffield’s had some gaffs but he’s been far better than the comments on here would lead you to believe. The problem is we need our medium defenders to be athletic and competitive freaks the way we’re set up and he’s not that. We need our system to better accomodate the players on our list, unless we have a cryogenically frozen peak Easton Wood we can thaw out for finals.

 

[Foxman98]

Coffield’s had some gaffs but he’s been far better than the comments on here would lead you to believe. The problem is we need our medium defenders to be athletic and competitive freaks the way we’re set up and he’s not that. We need our system to better accomodate the players on our list, unless we have a cryogenically frozen peak Easton Wood we can thaw out for finals.

For whatever reason people have Coff in the gun,

Even at the game JOD kicks it out on the full and the people behind were saying oh that was Coffield again get him out of the team

 

[MaxiBont]

Coffield was our best defender last week. I said this on Saturday but people were on the hate bandwagon.

It probably says more about our other defenders, but yeah I didn’t understand how Coffield got so much stick against Crows.

 

[go the dogs]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

 

[MaxiBont]

No chance of Sellwood based off the press conference.

Seems like there will be changes though.

 

[Doggy]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

To play on Hipwood

 

[Golden_6]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

If that happen then my god I couldn't think of a worse decision from him in recent years.

 

[Foxman98]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

Play him on Fort and he will be fine,

Outside of not cleaning up Ginnivan his game against Hawthorn wasn't as bad as people make out given Lobb/JOD over the past 2 weeks

 

[Foxman98]

If that happen then my god I couldn't think of a worse decision from him in recent years.

Why? JOD/Lobb need a FB to help them play their more natural game Jones is the only other one on the list and isnt fit

 

[JTCWBFC]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

Exactly where my thoughts went too. Fk.

 

[Golden_6]

Why? JOD/Lobb need a FB to help them play their more natural game Jones is the only other one on the list and isnt fit

Gardner has proven time and time again that he is not up the AFL standard. His last game game proved it and quite frankly I never want to see him at senior level again unless every KPD is injured.

 

[Foxman98]

Gardner has proven time and time again that he is not up the AFL standard. His last game game proved it and quite frankly I never want to see him at senior level again unless every KPD is injured.

Jones isn't fit and Buss isn't a KPD so you just answered your own question

 

[Golden_6]

Jones isn't fit and Buss isn't a KPD so you just answered your own question

Jones played the last VFL fixture on the 4th July and isn't on the injury report. He's fit.

 

[Doggies7]

Jones played the last VFL fixture on the 4th July and isn't on the injury report. He's fit.

That doesn't mean he is AFL fit. Has played one VFL game in the last month which was also on managed minutes coming back from injury or soreness and is still in the rehab / managed group at training. He clearly hasn't been AFL fit for a lot of this season.

 

[Foxman98]

Jones played the last VFL fixture on the 4th July and isn't on the injury report. He's fit.

Did you watch the game?

He was on managed minutes he isn't match fit

 

[Cookie]

watching Bevos presser get a feeing Gardner is coming back

If this doesn't prove the cupboard is bare, I'll ...........
(Finish it for me.)

 

[Foxman98]

If this doesn't prove the cupboard is bare, I'll ...........
(Finish it for me.)

The cupboard has been bare for a while hence why this year has been frustrating