Opinion Changes Round 23 Vs Hawks

[SAweagle]

Out- Hutchings petrol rotham

In- Duggan Schofield Cameron

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

Probably be Duggan for Hutchings. Nelson to play as a defensive mid.

I was thinking this exact thing . Nelson to tag .
We seem a better team with a tagger

 

[PintSzedSlasher]

Hutchings, Rotham out, Duggan, Masten in. Barrass may have a had a few bad moments but bloke was one of our best week before, anyone who wants him out has rocks in their head.

 

[ep2018]

Looks like a good dry night thank ****.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Today felt like we had a lot of passengers.So to lose by only 1 goal I'm confused whether we drop passengers or maintain some stability heading into finals.

Probably need some tweeks to balance the side.

Out:
Petch - I was always critical of his low numbers but he started the season really electric. Feel like he's getting games now on the basis of his early season form.
Waterman - He's a marking forward, but with JK & JD there, with OAllen as well, we don't need him.
Hutch - Injured.

In:
MAllen - Would love to see what he has before we delist and deserves a debut anyway
Duggan - Duggan fit, Duggan play.
Ah Chee - Feels like a hybrid between Waterman and Petch in terms of the role he'd play. HFF, can mark, can run through middle.

 

[kerr87]

Kennedy was terrible again this week. Really laboured when watching him at the ground. Lacking his usual pep in his step and high intensity. Also plays like he's frustrated.

Carrying niggles?

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

If Brisbane lose 70-71 that takes them to 120%. That's about the least damage I can see being done to their percentage in a loss.

Then assuming the Hawks have at least 50 points in them we would need something like 105 to get our noses in front. Either way it looks like the ballpark differential we need is minimum about 55 points across both games. Unlikely but possible.

And if we don't sneak in to the top 2 my preference is to face the Cats at the MCG, although frankly I think we will beat whoever we play in our first final.

 

[twce13]

Hutch out, nelson takes the negative role.
Duggan in.

Not too fussed about Rotham or schoey, i thought barass defensively was ok aside from his ball use.

Petch lack of involvement may cost him a spot in the finals. Im not sure cameron will do much more tho.. maybe chee comes in. Even masten is tempting, although i like that chee has some ability up fwd.

Waterman is basically keeping nicnats spot warm from my perspective.

 

[Candiru]

Today felt like we had a lot of passengers.So to lose by only 1 goal I'm confused whether we drop passengers or maintain some stability heading into finals.

Probably need some tweeks to balance the side.

Out:
Petch - I was always critical of his low numbers but he started the season really electric. Feel like he's getting games now on the basis of his early season form.
Waterman - He's a marking forward, but with JK & JD there, with OAllen as well, we don't need him.
Hutch - Injured.

In:
MAllen - Would love to see what he has before we delist and deserves a debut anyway
Duggan - Duggan fit, Duggan play.
Ah Chee - Feels like a hybrid between Waterman and Petch in terms of the role he'd play. HFF, can mark, can run through middle.

Surely it's not really the time to pick Allen just to "see what he has". He hasn't played a game for us so it's fair to assume he's not part of our best available side.

 

[Candiru]

If Brisbane lose 70-71 that takes them to 120%. That's about the least damage I can see being done to their percentage in a loss.

Then assuming the Hawks have at least 50 points in them we would need something like 105 to get our noses in front. Either way it looks like the ballpark differential we need is minimum about 55 points across both games. Unlikely but possible.

Those numbers don't sound right.

It's more like we smash Hawks by 80 and then any Lions loss does it.

For example, let's say Tigers win 80 to 79 but we win 130 to 53, that would put us 0.04 percent ahead.

More likely, we win 120 to 70 and hope Tigers win 90 to 60. That would put us in front by 0.02 percent.

Gee a few extra percentage points against the Blues would have been handy right about now. Pity we let them kick the last 3 after we led by 40.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Those numbers dont sound right.

It's more like we smash Hawks by 80 and then any Lions loss does it.

More likely, win 120 to 70 and hope Tigers win 90 to 60. That would put us in front by 0.02 percent.

Yeah, so much for me trying to do basic arithmetic.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Just to clarify, Barrass had 13 one percenters. Next best on the field was 8 for either team.

Richmond also had 62 inside 50s so he was constantly working and often helping others.

Also his decision to handball to Nelson was the correct call because scores were level, it was wet, there was no guarantee we scored again. Nelson was unlucky with the kick.

He f’ed up in a few moments but it's very out of the ordinary.

He's played 62 games, he's 23. He won't be dropped.

Agree he won’t be dropped and should not be dropped but his age is irrelevant.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Out- Hutchings petrol rotham

In- Duggan Schofield Cameron

I agree with that however will have too many defenders? Duggan, Jetta, Nelson, Schoey, Barrass, Hurn, Gov, Shep? or we play Nelson as a tagger

 

[EagleEgo]

Those numbers don't sound right.

It's more like we smash Hawks by 80 and then any Lions loss does it.

For example, let's say Tigers win 80 to 79 but we win 130 to 53, that would put us 0.04 percent ahead.

More likely, we win 120 to 70 and hope Tigers win 90 to 60. That would put us in front by 0.02 percent.

Gee a few extra percentage points against the Blues would have been handy right about now. Pity we let them kick the last 3 after we led by 40.

There is a high chance that the Top 4 are all with 64 points at the end of the H & A season. Percentage will determine their actual positions!

 

[WCE Wizard]

Those numbers don't sound right.

It's more like we smash Hawks by 80 and then any Lions loss does it.

For example, let's say Tigers win 80 to 79 but we win 130 to 53, that would put us 0.04 percent ahead.

More likely, we win 120 to 70 and hope Tigers win 90 to 60. That would put us in front by 0.02 percent.

Gee a few extra percentage points against the Blues would have been handy right about now. Pity we let them kick the last 3 after we led by 40.

The percentage points against the blues, the missed chance to flog Essendon and the lost game to the Pies by a point. Cant do much about it now just have to move on

 

[Candiru]

There is a high chance that the Top 4 are all with 64 points at the end of the H & A season. Percentage will determine their actual positions!

Even a draw today or against Collingwood. Or a stronger finish against Carlton. What might have been?

Hopefully it's shades of 1992 and not shades of 2007.

 

[Candiru]

The percentage points against the blues, the missed chance to flog Essendon and the lost game to the Pies by a point. Cant do much about it now just have to move on

Even the fact that Adelaide got so close to us, in light of how bad they've been.

 

[kerrazy]

Even the fact that Adelaide got so close to us, in light of how bad they've been.

May as well talk about all the woulda coulda shoulda moments in the season. There are certainly plenty to choose from

 

[Candiru]

May as well talk about all the woulda coulda shoulda moments in the season. There are certainly plenty to choose from

3 stick out like dogs' balls.

We got dicked this round.

But we dicked ourselves against Collingwood and Carlton.

 

[Quinz]

So just looking at the percentages it's basically an 80 point swing we need our way vs Brisbane to get in.

A possible score might by the Lions losing 60-90 and we win 53-100. If the Lions lose by less than 30 the window gets almost impossibly narrow with the score we need to restrict Hawthorn to.

Anyway, we don't play last so unless Geelong loses to Carlton the top 2 is out of our hands sadly.

 

[Candiru]

So just looking at the percentages it's basically an 80 point swing we need our way vs Brisbane to get in.

A possible score might by the Lions losing 60-90 and we win 53-100. If the Lions lose by less than 30 the window gets almost impossibly narrow with the score we need to restrict Hawthorn to.

Anyway, we don't play last so unless Geelong loses to Carlton the top 2 is out of our hands sadly.

Let's say Tigers win 80 to 79 but we win 130 to 53, that would put us 0.04 percent ahead.

Or we win 120 to 70 and hope Tigers win 90 to 60. That would put us in front by 0.02 percent.

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

In - Masten, Duggan, Cameron/Ah Chee
Out - Hutchings, Rotham, Petrucelle

Exactly this.

 

[darksquare]

If Brisbane lose 70-71 that takes them to 120%. That's about the least damage I can see being done to their percentage in a loss.

Then assuming the Hawks have at least 50 points in them we would need something like 105 to get our noses in front. Either way it looks like the ballpark differential we need is minimum about 55 points across both games. Unlikely but possible.

And if we don't sneak in to the top 2 my preference is to face the Cats at the MCG, although frankly I think we will beat whoever we play in our first final.

Assuming we win and Brisbane lose, there are a lot of scenarios for the teams that will finish on 64 points.
1. If both we and Richmond win 100-61, we overtake Brisbane on percentage. That's possible.
2. Broadly speaking, an approximately 80-point total margin differential in the games sees us overtake Brisbane.
3. One problem is that we can't get the 80-point margin by squeaking past the Hawks, while Richmond pump Brisbane for us; because then Richmond will overtake both of us! But this is an unlikely scenario - we can stay ahead so long as we have a margin within about 50 points of Richmond's.
4.* Carlton to beat Geelong

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Surely it's not really the time to pick Allen just to "see what he has". He hasn't played a game for us so it's fair to assume he's not part of our best available side.

Actually I agree with you. After 3 seasons the coaching staff would know exactly what he has to offer.
But I really want to see what he can do at AFL level and he won't be making a debut in the finals. So it's this week or never for the MC to satisfy my personal curiosity.

Earlier in the season I recall Simpson saying that MAllen is ready for a debut, just awaiting his opportunity. So hopefully a lack of opportunity isn't what costs him a spot on our list.

 

[RookiePick]

...
Also his decision to handball to Nelson was the correct call because scores were level, it was wet, there was no guarantee we scored again. Nelson was unlucky with the kick.
...

Firstly I agree that Barrass won't be dropped. Ridiculous man management being espoused by some here post-loss.

I think in a very tight game a couple of our younger guys felt the heat. I think a more experienced player than Nelson might have kicked for touch under that pressure, knowing that a free kick against for deliberate or OOB would at least give our defence time to get back in order.

Oh well. Hopefully we will be better for it!