Preview Changes Round 9 vs Zak B

[lachy]

The evidence says we’re second in the comp for clearances and conceding the fifth least, so the 25% of the game English isn’t rucking is a far smaller concern than than the 100% of the game we’ve been shorthanded with KPPs and currently taking the least contested marks in the comp and conceding the most.

Taking English out of the midfield and replacing him with a bloke that plays like he’s 5’9”, who took 0 marks in the VFL yesterday and conceded 7 to Brayden Crossley, and just won’t win many hit outs anyway, is “fixing” something that isn’t really a problem at the cost of exacerbating what is actually our biggest problem.

I can’t explain this any more clearly than I already have. If you’re just stuck in your thinking on this it is what it is.

Thats fine. Enjoy watching us continally fail till Lobb comes back if we persist with a player not close to ready and adds nothing at the moment

We have been beaten 64 17, 59 27, 42 22 in ruck contests with English out and when back the player you beleive mystically adds what Smith does not bring was beaten 28 2 in ruck contests with no marks

 

[Doggies7]

There's a legitimate down period after big derbys and showdowns that the teams tend to go through which we will have on our side. Those games take a lot out of them and especially last week's 1 point loss would have been a real energy zapper, so we have to come out fast and angry and build a lead early while Port are gathering themselves.

 

[Dog 36]

From the SANFL?

Am I missing something why SANFl?

 

[BEaston]

No TiAn the last 4 weeks including this week it is not just at both ends we have a crisis it remains until Lobb comes back with the 30 odd stoppages we get obliterated in the ruck contests around the ground with non existent back up rucks. Numbers do not lie.

With English back that was more evident and goals and scores from stoppage clearance are through the roof since we have become totally ineffective.

Add to that in 2 of the games played Emmett had no marks including this one. That is zero, zilch. English resting forward for 10 to 15% of the game whilst Smith is at least providing a contest to reduce the bleeding at stoppage also addresses our other issue.

You seem oblivious to the fact our 3 back up rucks including Cordy are injured, they are not an option at the moment at all and it is hurting us big time.

I don't think Smith will make it as a first ruck until he either dominates not break even against quality rucks, 36 to 34 hitouts against Crossly yesterday, or starts marking around the ground to be an outlet or support defence, but to say he is not a significant upgrade on the only alternative now available, Emmett is utter nonsense proved time and again over the last 4 weeks by clear evidence

We're 5th for clearance diff in the league. What numbers are you talking about?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

We're 5th for clearance diff in the league. What numbers are you talking about?

He's talking about the Freo game

Emmett in 30 ruck contests, 2 hit outs. Cox 28 ruck contests, 25 hitouts (record for highest percentage)

 

[lachy]

We're 5th for clearance diff in the league. What numbers are you talking about?

Score from stoppage since English was injured. Clean clearance from stoppage has been significant -31 points v the Hawks, -21 points v the Cats, - 19 points v the Swans and an improved -13 against Freo however when English was not rucking this blew out more

We won this stat when we had English with Darcy covering if the Forwards line comfortably and when Croft had more contests in round 0 we won but just

 

[Doggy]

Am I missing something why SANFl?

Because he is a fair chance to be dropped... might also be injured..

 

[lachy]

He's talking about the Freo game

Emmett in 30 ruck contests, 2 hit outs. Cox 28 ruck contests, 25 hitouts (record for highest percentage)

And score from clean clearance from those stoppages a direct result of hitout dominance

 

[Werewolf]

Todd Marshall will kill us

He's been playing in the backline this year. We'll have Georgiades and Whitlock to worry about, presumably Khamis will play on the former and Buss will play on the latter.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I don’t care if we have to send the bont out in a wheelchair. We simply cannot risk upsetting the Zac with his absence.

 

[JTCWBFC]

I want to see Bailey Williams get some minutes on ball

 

[BEaston]

Score from stoppage since English was injured. Clean clearance from stoppage has been significant -31 points v the Hawks, -21 points v the Cats, - 19 points v the Swans and an improved -13 against Freo however when English was not rucking this blew out more

We won this stat when we had English with Darcy covering if the Forwards line comfortably and when Croft had more contests in round 0 we won but just

It might be related, but that stat covers the whole ground. Our attack/defense as well as the opponent's att/def contribute to that so there are more factors at play than just the initial ruck contest. You could argue the difference since English went down is as much (or more) to do with the plethora of our other injuries.

We actually beat Sydney and Geelong in clearances, and lost them to Freo, so I'm not sure the numbers stack up with your argument.

 

[lachy]

It might be related, but that stat covers the whole ground. Our attack/defense as well as the opponent's att/def contribute to that so there are more factors at play than just the initial ruck contest. You could argue the difference since English went down is as much (or more) to do with the plethora of our other injuries.

We actually beat Sydney and Geelong in clearances, and lost them to Freo, so I'm not sure the numbers stack up with your argument.

They are the actual stats from each of those games for scores from stoppage. Actual damage caused from stoppage.

A hacked clearance from stoppage does not cause the damage as a hitout to a player on the move in space.

Statistical facts not argument show clearly that when English went down our hit outs at stoppage plumeted and we went from winning scores from stoppage to losing quite comfortably.. with English back it closed except for when he was not there and we lost hit outs 30 to 2

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Score from stoppage since English was injured. Clean clearance from stoppage has been significant -31 points v the Hawks, -21 points v the Cats, - 19 points v the Swans and an improved -13 against Freo however when English was not rucking this blew out more

We won this stat when we had English with Darcy covering if the Forwards line comfortably and when Croft had more contests in round 0 we won but just

And score from clean clearance from those stoppages a direct result of hitout dominance

Impossible to know who much our scores from clearances differential was when Emmett was in the ruck but we didn't lose that battle so badly that they killed us from scores from clearances despite Emmett rucking there for over a quarter of the game.

So yet we're still a worse turnover team (where things like contested marking matter) than we are a clearance team

-2.8 points from clearance differential (rank 11)
-11.4 points from turnover differetial (rank 15)

BTW our kick-ins have been excellent this year as we've avoided contested marking

+5.8 points from kick-in differential (rank 1)

Even if you consider location of both team's turnovers and stoppage wins, we're rank 18 for xChain on turnover. It would be great to be able to not turn the ball over because we have a key position/2nd ruck in packs we're happy to kick too (Croft's poor form to start the year part of this too), and it would be great to have prevented opposition contested marking and intercept contested mark more often than we can.

Look, maybe we do play Smith after all because the cupboard is that bare, but with English back (but playing injured), with Croft injured, with Lobb injured, with O'Donnell injured, with Darcy injured, with Naughton playing injured, we're screwed.

Consider that -5.5 contested marking difference is rank 18 by a humungous margin that rank 17 is West Coast that is merely -3.6 and then rank 16 is Essendon which is merely -2.3. Key position pack marking situations are clearly a large part of the reason of our overall success and failures across 8 games that it should be pretty obvious now.

Again, Emmett may not be the answer, but the carry-on as if Smith has something to offer in pack marking situations (which he doesn't, despite his height and theoretical ruck development) is not really something that should be suggested.

 

[lachy]

Again, Emmett may not be the answer, but the carry-on as if Smith has something to offer in pack marking situations (which he doesn't, despite his height and theoretical ruck development) is not really something that should be suggested.

Where in any of my posts have I said anything about Smith and pack marking??? In fact I have actually said if he does not improve his marking he will not have an AFL career.

I have merely pointed out that since English went out and Emmett has been absolutely thrown to the wolves playing a role he should never have been asked to we have been beaten badly in ruck contests in stoppage and that has translated from us beating our oppenents in scores from stoppage in the first 4 rounds to being beaten, sometimes very badly, a direct correlation to how badly we have lost rucking contests at stoppage.

Our best alternatives are injured Lobb and Darcy are not an option. Croft is carrying an injury and struggling in the VFL.

Until Lobb comes back Smith is a significantly better option than Emmett in an area that is statisically clearly identifiable now. That is not saying Smith is any sort of saviour, just the best option for now.

For the last 4 games we have been beaten in hitouts to advantage 66 to 20

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Where in any of my posts have I said anything about Smith and pack marking??? In fact I have actually said if he does not improve his marking he will not have an AFL career.

I have merely pointed out that since English went out and Emmett has been absolutely thrown to the wolves playing a role he should never have been asked to we have been beaten badly in ruck contests in stoppage and that has translated from us beating our oppenents in scores from stoppage in the first 4 rounds to being beaten, sometimes very badly, a direct correlation to how badly we have lost rucking contests at stoppage.

Our best alternatives are injured Lobb and Darcy are not an option. Croft is carrying an injury and struggling in the VFL.

Until Lobb comes back Smith is a significantly better option than Emmett in an area that is statisically clearly identifiable now. That is not saying Smith is any sort of saviour, just the best option for now.

For the last 4 games we have been beaten in hitouts to advantage 66 to 20

But with English back the whole discussion is what role that 2nd player will play

Smith's lack of ability to mark the ball around the ground - worse than Emmett

is clearly more detrimental to the team than Emmett's lack of effectiveness in the ruck contests themselves

Yes we know the number was 2 from 30, but it's not as if Fremantle won the game by blitzing us when Emmett was in there, winning every stoppage and kicking goals from every stoppage. In fact, their run of goals late in the 3rd was because English was rucking (but playing hurt), something that hopefully isn't an issue and a factor next week when English is fit enough to run 85% TOG as he does in his career generally, not his 75% TOG last week.

 

[lachy]

But with English back the whole discussion is what role that 2nd player will play

Smith's lack of ability to mark the ball around the ground - worse than Emmett

is clearly more detrimental to the team than Emmett's lack of effectiveness in the ruck contests themselves

Yes we know the number was 2 from 30, but it's not as if Fremantle won the game by blitzing us when Emmett was in there, winning every stoppage and kicking goals from every stoppage. In fact, their run of goals late in the 3rd was because English was rucking (but playing hurt), something that hopefully isn't an issue and a factor next week when English is fit enough to run 85% TOG as he does in his career generally, not his 75% TOG last week.

You do know that Emmett has taken zero contested marks and averages 1.5 marks a game right?

We lost the game by 2 goals. We lost goals from stoppage ie where there was a ruck contest by 13 points of which we would have won if only English was rucking based on numbers as we did in our first 4 games of the season.

You also understand that all players who can competently play that role you are talking about are out injured

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You do know that Emmett has taken zero contested marks and averages 1.5 marks a game right?

We lost the game by 2 goals. We lost goals from stoppage ie where there was a ruck contest by 13 points of which we would have won if only English was rucking based on numbers as we did in our first 4 games of the season.

You also understand that all players who can competently play that role you are talking about are out injured

But Smith took 0 marks in the VFL this past game. If we were to somehow translate that to the AFL, it would be a negative amount of mark taking somehow, below Emmett's 0 (because Emmett would have presumably taken at least 1 in the VFL if he had played there), that's the point.

Emmett's taken 13 marks across his 2 VFL games this year. Lachie Smith's taken 5 in 4 VFL games. And in 21 VFL games last year, Lachie Smith only averaged 2 marks per game.

 

[lachy]

But Smith took 0 marks in the VFL this past game. If we were to somehow translate that to the AFL, it would be a negative amount of mark taking somehow, below Emmett's 0 (because Emmett would have presumably taken at least 1 in the VFL if he had played there), that's the point.

Emmett's taken 13 marks across his 2 VFL games this year. Lachie Smith's taken 5 in 4 VFL games. And in 21 VFL games last year, Lachie Smith only averaged 2 marks per game.

Lack of marks are not causing scores from stoppage. And he did take a mark in his only AFL game as many as Emmett has per game

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Lack of marks are not causing scores from stoppage. And he did take a mark in his only AFL game as many as Emmett has per game

No, I'm saying lack of marks are hindering us in the turnover game, which is where we're doing worse in this season than the stoppage game.

 

[lachy]

No, I'm saying lack of marks are hindering us in the turnover game, which is where we're doing worse in this season than the stoppage game.

Except we lost scores from turnover in 2 of our wins. We are just poor with turnovers and there is no correlation to results.

Anyway back to the thread:

Ins Baker and Smith
Outs VDM and Emmett

 

[Doggy]

Except we lost scores from turnover in 2 of our wins. We are just poor with turnovers and there is no correlation to results.

Anyway back to the thread:

Ins Baker and Smith
Outs VDM and Emmett

Buderick

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Except we lost scores from turnover in 2 of our wins. We are just poor with turnovers and there is no correlation to results.

Anyway back to the thread:

Ins Baker and Smith
Outs VDM and Emmett

How is that "except"?

That's exactly my point

English is good enough at the stoppage, to help us to outscore at stoppages, to win games

But we need to get better at turnover, ergo, contested marking is part of that

That's exactly my point?

 

[Pocket Terrace]

But with English back the whole discussion is what role that 2nd player will play

Smith's lack of ability to mark the ball around the ground - worse than Emmett

is clearly more detrimental to the team than Emmett's lack of effectiveness in the ruck contests themselves

Yes we know the number was 2 from 30, but it's not as if Fremantle won the game by blitzing us when Emmett was in there, winning every stoppage and kicking goals from every stoppage. In fact, their run of goals late in the 3rd was because English was rucking (but playing hurt), something that hopefully isn't an issue and a factor next week when English is fit enough to run 85% TOG as he does in his career generally, not his 75% TOG last week.

I wonder if we can think differently about what a 1st and 2nd ruck means. It doesn’t necessarily mean 1st has to be the better player.

English as 2nd ruck while he’s not 100% fit could allow him to play more time ahead of and behind the ball as needed. Even when he is fit he could play this role well.

Smith is limited aerially, so why not give him higher minutes just getting to ruck contests around the ground and competing? Essentially, playing the role of 1st ruck.

Just a thought. No guarantee that it comes off. Emmett just can’t stay in, the poor kid.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I wonder if we can think differently about what a 1st and 2nd ruck means. It doesn’t necessarily mean 1st has to be the better player.

English as 2nd ruck while he’s not 100% fit could allow him to play more time ahead of and behind the ball as needed. Even when he is fit he could play this role well.

Smith is limited aerially, so why not give him higher minutes just getting to ruck contests around the ground and competing? Essentially, playing the role of 1st ruck.

Just a thought. No guarantee that it comes off. Emmett just can’t stay in, the poor kid.

Why would we want English playing any other position but being a ruckman?

He offers value by being an extra midfielder when matching up to the opposition player. More uncontested ball, and more influence in running to contests to get packs.

He isn't a key forward any more than Smith is, and hasn't been since the 2021 SF when we subbed off Lewis Young and moved him to the ruck and that led our comeback charge.