Prediction Changes round five

[Maggie5]

In: Beams
Out: Mayne (inj)

Sier and Wells to play one more game in VFL.

Apparently WHE will play VFL in the next two weeks (according to Bucks).

 

[unplugged]

View attachment 655041

I can't like this enough!

 

[Go Pies!!!!!]

Out Mayne, Brown ( if Beams is fit )
In Greenwood, Beams ( if fit ) doesn't sound good likely

Watched the VFL 2nd & 3rd Qtrs only one for me that stood out was Wills & Crocker.
Wells & Sier need another week in the VFL

Greenwood straight to Neale.

 

[unplugged]

Out Mayne, Brown ( if Beams is fit )
In Greenwood, Beams ( if fit ) doesn't sound good likely

Watched the VFL 2nd & 3rd Qtrs only one for me that stood out was Wills & Crocker.
Wells & Sier need another week in the VFL

Greenwood straight to Neale.

What are you basing "doesn't sound good likely" on? Bucks' reluctance to declare him as a certain starter next week?

I think he'd be quite likely to play, but there's no way Bucks would put any pressure on him, particularly if it is mental health related.

 

[Apex36]

Illustrates perfectly that Rupert is the right option this week. Good kick to handball ratio and 6 tackles. Use and pressure. Ruupeeerrrrrrt!

Not convinced. While Ruperts numbers tend to be good at VFL level his numbers at AFL level are Callum Brown level. Sier in the other hand has proven over an extended run that he steps up at the next level. I’m not sure that either of them should be in the side next week, but I know I’d prefer Sier if I had a choice between the two.

 

[Apex36]

The report on the club website (from AFL) says Sier 28 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal assist. Doesn't even mention Wills.

Go figure

Yes, I know. As I said, it looks as if they’ve confused Wills and Siers stats.

 

[Adz]

Beams won’t play. It’s rare for players to play first game against their old club for whatever reason. I think Ablett didn’t play against Geelong until his third or fourth year.

 

[Apex36]

Beams won’t play. It’s rare for players to play first game against their old club for whatever reason. I think Ablett didn’t play against Geelong until his third or fourth year.

Rubbish, it’s not rare at all, and Ablett played against Geelong in their first game against them. It was reported as a big love in at the time. Round 10, 2011.

 

[peter9789]

Having watched the majority of the VFL game only Appleby would be in contention for a call up. Also really liked the game of IQ - he will come into the mix with a few more games.

Cannot see Sier, Crocker, or Greenwood being selected based on VFL form alone.

IN: Beams

OUT: Mayne

If as some people are reporting there is doubt Beams being available for selection, then would be keen to throw Appleby into the mix. Young Brown stays in for me to get some continuity of game time into him.

 

[sr36]

Rubbish, it’s not rare at all, and Ablett played against Geelong in their first game against them. It was reported as a big love in at the time. Round 10, 2011.

Jesus. Dont you know the maxim, "Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story."

Actually, carry on, it wasn't a good story.

 

[OniAu]

Beams won’t play. It’s rare for players to play first game against their old club for whatever reason. I think Ablett didn’t play against Geelong until his third or fourth year.

Fixtures are usually built up on traded players playing their old team. Happens quite a lot

 

[Anzacday]

It’s rare for players to play first game against their old club for whatever reason.

Jordan Roughead says Hi.

 

[sr36]

As Firecraqa so beautifully put it:


If you think that someone other than Crocker will be lining up on Mayne's wing at the first bounce against Brisbane - you're dreaming.

He's about as like for like as you get, even matching how maligned Mayne was in 2018 He's in form in the VFL, playing the same role. They've trained him up to play this role. He got a fair few games last year without seeming to do much to warrant selection, suggesting that the coaches quite like him.

He's playing!

 

[Scodog10]

Rubbish, it’s not rare at all, and Ablett played against Geelong in their first game against them. It was reported as a big love in at the time. Round 10, 2011.

Weird was the word I would have used not rubbish. Not only was it a long way from being factually correct it’s counterintuitive. They’re professional athletes so the internal drive usually kicks in to overdrive to perform against a former club.

Jordan Roughead says Hi.

And Shiel.

 

[Ulahoopski]

Not convinced. While Ruperts numbers tend to be good at VFL level his numbers at AFL level are Callum Brown level. Sier in the other hand has proven over an extended run that he steps up at the next level. I’m not sure that either of them should be in the side next week, but I know I’d prefer Sier if I had a choice between the two.

I think you're underselling Wills. Stats aren't everything, granted, but when you use them to compare Sier and Wills, they show that whilst Sier is a better contested player, Wills is the better user and better defensive player. Rupert's only played 6 games at AFL level. Given a consistent string of games I have no doubt Wills become a best 22 player. Zero doubt.

Brown vs Sier vs Wills (click on advanced stats, career average, and show all stats)

 

[Scodog10]

I think you're underselling Wills. Stats aren't everything, granted, but when you use them to compare Sier and Wills, they show that whilst Sier is a better contested player, Wills is the better user and better defensive player. Rupert's only played 6 games at AFL level. Given a consistent string of games I have no doubt Wills become a best 22 player. Zero doubt.

Brown vs Sier vs Wills (click on advanced stats, career average, and show all stats)

Have you taken age into account with this comparison? For mine it’s a bit rough when Wills was older when drafted than the other two are right now.

 

[swoop42]

If Beams doesn't get up I'd look to bring in Appleby and move either Aish or Maynard to the wing.

Wing was the position Aish showed some promise in prior to injury last season.

I'd love to see if Maynard has the scope to play another role also and one unleashed from minding a direct opponent.

 

[vicparksfinest]

Teams done tomorrow and it’s Croc o’cloc

 

[swoop42]

Brisbane got a reality check against Essendon it would appear but at home they'll be a far more difficult proposition.

They went awfully close to beating us last season on a hot and humid night and have seemingly improved.

The weather forecast is for a mild night but thankfully the southeasterly breeze during the day should mean it wont be a repeat of last years oppressive conditions.

Still our form of last week doesn't fill me with a great deal of confidence and we'll need to greatly improve to get the 4pts.

 

[Kappa]

Here's the thing with Wells, he only has so many games in him.

Not much point wasting them in the VFL, he played a full game and played well.

I'd bring him straight in for Mayne.

Beams in for Brown/Aish.

Bringing an underdone Wells in is just going to increase the chance he breaks down again, and if thats early in a game it could cost us the 4 points. If he can't get through a few VFL games then he isn't up to AFL anyway.

 

[Apex36]

I think you're underselling Wills. Stats aren't everything, granted, but when you use them to compare Sier and Wills, they show that whilst Sier is a better contested player, Wills is the better user and better defensive player. Rupert's only played 6 games at AFL level. Given a consistent string of games I have no doubt Wills become a best 22 player. Zero doubt.

Brown vs Sier vs Wills (click on advanced stats, career average, and show all stats)

Hahahahahah please don’t tell me that you’re using DE% to label Wills a better ball user than Sier.... Use your eyes friend. Wills is a below average kick and an ok handball. Sier is a good kick and an elite handballer. His vision in the contest is close to the best at the club. I think Wills could become an AFL standard footballer, but it’s doubtful he ever will be able to cement a spot in our midfield. Given Sier and Browns relative youth compared to Wills i’ll Back then both to become better players by a comfortable margin.

 

[Ulahoopski]

Hahahahahah please don’t tell me that you’re using DE% to label Wills a better ball user than Sier.... Use your eyes friend. Wills is a below average kick and an ok handball. Sier is a good kick and an elite handballer. His vision in the contest is close to the best at the club. I think Wills could become an AFL standard footballer, but it’s doubtful he ever will be able to cement a spot in our midfield. Given Sier and Browns relative youth compared to Wills i’ll Back then both to become better players by a comfortable margin.

Your eyes are being subjective. Stats don't lie. Higher average effective kicks and kicking efficiency both on Wills' side.

 

[unplugged]

They could've easily beaten us up there last year, and you could argue we're not going as well now as we were then. Putting aside their game on the weekend, they've definitely improved this year.

I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if we drop this game.

 

[sr36]

Your eyes are being subjective. Stats don't lie. Higher average effective kicks and kicking efficiency both on Wills' side.

Which is why I always maintain that Frost and Brown were better users than Didak.

 

[Apex36]

Your eyes are being subjective. Stats don't lie. Higher average effective kicks and kicking efficiency both on Wills' side.

Stats lie all the time. If you shank a kick and it manages to get to a teammate it’s still an effective kick. If you just bomb it long to a contest, it’s an effective kick. Honestly, go back and find some threads from when Rupert was playing senior footy. A constant theme was his poor kicking. Throwing some numbers at me won’t change what could be clearly seen on game day.