Changes v Adelaide, 20/5

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Whoyagot

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Sep 18, 2018
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I agree with Scrag, the Carlton win was our best win since Melbourne last year and this would top it.

Brisbane was also good but it was one of those wins built on pure emotion (massive heat on the club that week plus the Marra stuff)

Carlton last week felt more clinical (we weren’t at our best around stoppage but did enough to withstand the charge which is something we’ve really struggled with)

Adelaide’s form is better then ours and just seem to be in the zone where missing players doesn’t really impact their performance, they’ve all bought in.

If we’re serious about being a finals player this year we win this game.

Personally looking at the remainder of our fixture I’ve got us pencilled in for 8-9 more wins which gives us 14-15 wins. I reckon we’ll finish 5-7 on the ladder.
 

Foxman98

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I agree with Scrag, the Carlton win was our best win since Melbourne last year and this would top it.

Brisbane was also good but it was one of those wins built on pure emotion (massive heat on the club that week plus the Marra stuff)

Carlton last week felt more clinical (we weren’t at our best around stoppage but did enough to withstand the charge which is something we’ve really struggled with)

Adelaide’s form is better then ours and just seem to be in the zone where missing players doesn’t really impact their performance, they’ve all bought in.

If we’re serious about being a finals player this year we win this game.

Personally looking at the remainder of our fixture I’ve got us pencilled in for 8-9 more wins which gives us 14-15 wins. I reckon we’ll finish 5-7 on the ladder.
How is their form better than ours? we are 6 and 1 in the last 7 weeks they are 5 and 2 and should've been 4 and 3
 
WHY'D WE *IN DROP KEATH GOD DAMN IT HIS BEEN SOLID SINCE 2020 AND FOR TIM O BRIAN HAWKTHORN REJECT?

Sack, Bevo, now. Match commitee have no idea what they're doing.

Why can't Sweet get a run his a better tap ruckman than English and honestly English was beaten up vs Carlton he doesn't deserve his spot anyway.

/s
Not enough exclamation marks

Enjoi ur ban
 

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I mistakenly flicked onto 360 tonight. I was surprised and relieved to not be confronted by the haggard and slobbering Robbo but rather the considerably more aesthectically pleasing Kath something or other (she of the fine pins). Anyways, they got to the Dogs game and both pundits, Jack and Jordan, appeared to be in the Crows camp. Neither seemed to take into account the Crows outs and thought the upstart Crows mids would be a match for ours. Maybe they'll prove to be correct but I don't think so.

Reality check coming the Crows way. It's business time at the kennel.


Their midfield is firing... but I really don't rate their ruck division and expect Timmy to hurt them around the ground.

Rory should feast of their second ruck.

I'm worried about their small forwards.
 

geoffjennings79

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Some posters in Crows' preview thread think TOB is going to chop out English in the ruck, and one suggested he'd play forward!

As if Beveridge would that now that we've got a half-decent forward/second ruck like Lobb!

It's like saying Bevo would bring in an untried rookie, and play Lobb somewhere weird like the wing....
 
Hey all. Is TOB likely/unlikely/no chance to hold his spot for most or all of the rest of the season?

Can only assume you are talking from a fantasy/SuperCoach perspective. If so, best to look elsewhere as he’ll never be a high or consistent scorer and has injury/fitness issues
 

Proffessor

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There really hasn't,

Keath has cost us multiple goals due to his poor decision making and positioning this year.

Just say "I Hate Gards" instead of trying to justify a clearly out of form player being "daylight" ahead of him

Sorry but that is a terrible argument Foxman98.
You have provided absolutely no evidence to back up your claims, which are contrary to all statistical evidence, and have just played the man.

I sincerely hope Ryan has a good game and justifies the seemingly endless faith the MC has in him. However, suggesting he is currently in better form than Keath, requires some serious mental gymnastics.
 

Nat Fyfe

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Sorry but that is a terrible argument Foxman98.
You have provided absolutely no evidence to back up your claims, which are contrary to all statistical evidence, and have just played the man.

I sincerely hope Ryan has a good game and justifies the seemingly endless faith the MC has in him. However, suggesting he is currently in better form than Keath, requires some serious mental gymnastics.
The fact Gardner remains in the side while Keath was dropped is a pretty good indication that he’s in better form. And the “gifted games” argument is no longer relevant post-2021 GF
 

Deadly Darcy

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Sorry but that is a terrible argument Foxman98.
You have provided absolutely no evidence to back up your claims, which are contrary to all statistical evidence, and have just played the man.

I sincerely hope Ryan has a good game and justifies the seemingly endless faith the MC has in him. However, suggesting he is currently in better form than Keath, requires some serious mental gymnastics.
I wish people would try harder to use reason and observation rather than wishful thinking.

There is a substantial amount of daylight between Keath and Gardner in terms of ability and performance, both past and present.
We are supposed to be picking a team for this week not years down the track, and even if we were picking a team for three years down the road, I'd still expect Keath to be in front based on current performance trajectories. Osteoporosis is arguably a bigger threat than Gardner's performance graph.
Zaine Cordy is probably sending Alex memes as we speak.
I was at the game last week and Keath was terrible. Not sure what he looked like if it was on the TV but the entire group of people around me were pissed with two seperate incidents that cost us Carlton goals. No (to whomever asked me previously) I can’t time and date stamp the incidents as I was watching a game of footy at the time and didn’t look at my watch surprisingly enough! He was bad, really bad, and I’m stoked Bevo dropped him. Doesn’t mean he didn’t have some good moments as well but he is sorely out of touch. With Walker out this is an excellent week to try something else around Jones and Gardner and if TOB was ok in the 2ns then we are rewarding good form over bad and good luck to him 👍
 

Libbaaaa

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I feel the Crows are playing a different style to when they beat us last year. By memory they smashed us at the source with ROB, Laird and Keays leading the way. Simply having big Timmy playing makes a massive difference but they are definitely playing a more attacking brand which suits us more.
 

Foxman98

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Sorry but that is a terrible argument Foxman98.
You have provided absolutely no evidence to back up your claims, which are contrary to all statistical evidence, and have just played the man.

I sincerely hope Ryan has a good game and justifies the seemingly endless faith the MC has in him. However, suggesting he is currently in better form than Keath, requires some serious mental gymnastics.
Okay Sir,

2 turn overs a game below average for 1 on 1s and almost a free against a game 4.5 spoils a game vs 0.5 turnovers a game below average 1 on 1 half a free a game and 9 spoils a game statistically which one is the better KPD out of them #1 or #2?
 

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Al dente

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Keath has been worse than he currently is and still played, so happy we have a little more depth now and can demand more than 'serviceable but flawed' performances.

weve all become conditioned to set a pretty low bar for our key backs. I call it 'the Gardy threshold'. With Buss etc coming through, hopefully this is the dawn of a new era
 

Next Waiting

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Their midfield is firing... but I really don't rate their ruck division and expect Timmy to hurt them around the ground.

Rory should feast of their second ruck.

I'm worried about their small forwards.
TBH, I haven't watched the Crows play this year so I'm not really aware of where their strengths and weaknesses are.

However, if their small forwards are threatening, I'll run with Bont (quietish by his lofty standards last week) and co to deny them enough possession that they won't have any significant influence on the result.
 

Next Waiting

Norm Smith Medallist
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I was at the game last week and Keath was terrible. Not sure what he looked like if it was on the TV but the entire group of people around me were pissed with two seperate incidents that cost us Carlton goals. No (to whomever asked me previously) I can’t time and date stamp the incidents as I was watching a game of footy at the time and didn’t look at my watch surprisingly enough! He was bad, really bad, and I’m stoked Bevo dropped him. Doesn’t mean he didn’t have some good moments as well but he is sorely out of touch. With Walker out this is an excellent week to try something else around Jones and Gardner and if TOB was ok in the 2ns then we are rewarding good form over bad and good luck to him 👍
I thought he (Keath) was OK but happy to defer to someone who was the ground and can see the context of his game in its entirety.

Hope TOB goes well. Was in pretty reasonable form before he went back to the twos.

Gards is not going back to magoos anytime soon, and fair enough.
 

doggies ftw

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Keath has been worse than he currently is and still played, so happy we have a little more depth now and can demand more than 'serviceable but flawed' performances.

weve all become conditioned to set a pretty low bar for our key backs. I call it 'the Gardy threshold'. With Buss etc coming through, hopefully this is the dawn of a new era
Yeah very well said - with Bruce, Gardner, Keath, TOB all fit at least there’s competition for spots on the 2nd 3rd talls. I think it was the right call to drop a genuine KPD for a 3rd tall this week, personally I probably would have gone with Keath still over Gards this week but Jones, Gards, TOB in theory should mix well - it’s a lottttt more athtletic than some of the lumbering trios we’ve put out, and Jones & TOB should at least cover Gards aerial marking weakness, and he should provide athletic coverage for the other two too.

Honestly on season form so far I probably have Bruce as my 2nd defender, he was pretty good to be honest - better aerially than Gards, better defensively than Keath. *in take your pick who you want kicking the footy they’re all butcherers. If he comes back strong and Buss keeps on his trajectory or even JOD as 3rd tall, that’s a defensive mix I’d love to see at some stage this season.
 

Proffessor

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Okay Sir,

2 turn overs a game below average for 1 on 1s and almost a free against a game 4.5 spoils a game vs 0.5 turnovers a game below average 1 on 1 half a free a game and 9 spoils a game statistically which one is the better KPD out of them #1 or #2?

The mental gymnastics have clearly taken their toll. I hope you get better soon.
 

Foxman98

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The mental gymnastics have clearly taken their toll. I hope you get better soon.
Mental gymnastics I’ve given you the stats of the 2 this year you silly sausage

Which one are you taking player 1 or 2 and least be a man and answer the question
 
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Sorry but that is a terrible argument Foxman98.
You have provided absolutely no evidence to back up your claims, which are contrary to all statistical evidence, and have just played the man.

I sincerely hope Ryan has a good game and justifies the seemingly endless faith the MC has in him. However, suggesting he is currently in better form than Keath, requires some serious mental gymnastics.
Seriously Proff thought better of you. Keath v Gards both role players, neither dominant neither better than the other, just pick the one performing somewhat better though neither are statistically better than the other.

To many marginal debates on here.

Our defence has been better than many years with multiple options none better than others

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doggies ftw

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Our defence has been better than many years with multiple options none better than others

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Keaths been apart of that all season except for his conussion week though, that was kinda my point on the situation - yeah he hasn’t been great individually but hes been a stable member of a strong defence which has been miserly to key forwards. Deserves some credit for that and makes me nervous to * with what’s working
 

Oliver G

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Gardner v Keath (2023 Averages)

GvK.png
 

Proffessor

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Mental gymnastics I’ve given you the stats of the 2 this year you silly sausage

Which one are you taking player 1 or 2 and least be a man and answer the question
Anyone who is cherry picking such stats needs a good lie down and an Bex, so I really don't want to make your life any more difficult. Besides, if this is the best you can come up with to reinforce your argument then your argument must be extremely weak indeed.

Firstly, I couldn't give a Rat's how many spoils a player gets because it is a pretty low-grade stat. If you have to point to how many spoils you've made then you haven't got a lot to brag about. Secondly how convoluted are you trying to be by referencing whether something is below some 'average'. Is that a personal, positional or team average? Don't bother answering because I don't actually care, I'm just making a point about the stat.

Last week Gardner had 4 measly possessions, 3 uncontested, and at least one of his disposals was a howlingly bad turnover under zero pressure. He also gave away a free kick. At some stage I may go back and review the other three, but I don't think any of them were amazingly productively offensive in their outcome. So not exactly scintillating form, and not a great game by anyone's standards. It's also worth noting that Gardner's only other game was quite poor, with some poor defensive mistakes helping rather than hindering GWS's late charge against us the previous week. He has still yet to take a contested match at AFL level this year. .

Keath on the other hand had, 9 disposals last match, not exactly awesome but he still got his hands on the footy more than double the occasions that Ryan did. He also had more tackles (2) and clearances (1), than Ryan's 0 and 0.
You might point out that Alex had a costly turnover, which would be true, but it came when he was kicking hurriedly under strong pressure following Ryan's aforementioned unpressured mistake that he was vainly trying to clean up! Sometimes context really does matter.

The fact that the only stat Gardner fans can seemingly keep pointing to after his many years in the AFL system is his number of spoils is I believe a testament to how much the guy has struggled at the highest level. Nobody talks about how many spoils Steven May or Liam Jones have made. That's not because they don't make some great spoils occasionally, they certainly do, but more importantly they take contested marks and actually turn defence into offense.

I'm not saying that spoils are all bad, some times they are vitally important but so many spoils just end up going to the opposition anyway, so the team didn't necessarily gain from the act. As occurred for some of Ryan's spoils last week for example. Which is why I don't rate it as an important stat.

Contrary to appearances I don't actually dislike Ryan Gardner. I wish him the best this weekend as I do whenever he plays for us. The problem I have, which is associated with the poor bloke rather than being his fault, is how he keeps getting selected in front of better performed team mates, when they are still fit and available for selection.
 

Proffessor

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Seriously Proff thought better of you. Keath v Gards both role players, neither dominant neither better than the other, just pick the one performing somewhat better though neither are statistically better than the other.

To many marginal debates on here.

Our defence has been better than many years with multiple options none better than others

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I respectfully disagree, Lachy.

Preferential selection treatment for underperforming players can cause untold damage at any club and it has been a festering problem for us for a long time.
It erodes trust, and trust is the bedrock that premierships are built on.
 

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