Prediction Changes v Bombers

[WCErevival]

We could have easily beaten Richmond in rd 3 if it wasn't for our shit goal kicking. 8.17 is really poor.

 

[Shmiddy15]

I have a theory that our poor performances at the MCG are related to the width of the ground and the fact we have some very slow midfielders, I think we struggle to get numbers to contests because of this which effects our ball winning ability.
Doesn't explain the dropped marks and turnovers etc but I honestly reckon we do this in plenty of games, not just at the MCG.

Yeah I agree, I think the width exposes weaknesses that are less evident on narrow grounds.

 

[Winky]

Shits me big time, these staging antics of Jack.

He has become our Lindsay Thomas , and it hurts the team because he doesn't get paid the genuine free's he should get because the umpiring fraternity are well aware of his Academy Award efforts. He is the Boy Who Cried Wolf as far as free kicks go.

Agree that the issue needs to be addressed by our coaches and Jack should be told in no uncertain terms, cut this shit out of your game, or else you go back to East Perth until you do.

Going a step further I would give him a tape of the highlights from his first five AFL games, ask him to view it and explain where his never say die attack at the football , his pressure acts, his intense forward pressure and his all out attacking sprints to chase and tackle, have gone..... because I haven't seen it for a ******* long time now.

Look I like him and am massive fan, but right at the minute, he is no more than a good player who needs a massive kick up the arse because he has the potential to be one of the greats.
But right now his is playing on "Easy Street" and that just doesn't cut it for me.

The fact that he has been coasting for as long as he has now, is a sad indictment of our entire coaching staff, as it should have been confronted and addressed three years ago when it started to emerge.

I am not the greatest Ross Lyon fan but I bet "London to a Brick" that he would have stamped this shit out of JD's games a few years ago.

TBH I am more pissed that Simpson and his charges haven't sorted this out than I am about Jacks antics.

He does act for frees but also gets rewarded sometimes so it's some sort of encouragement. All the same it is embarrassing and coupled with the two incidents where he cops a lot of flack, makes it hard to defend. That doesn't alter the fact that he runs and competes bloody hard and sets up opportunities for others. If you look at his game, he runs over most of the ground leading and chasing and this opens up the forward line for Kennedy etc. I'd bet he is doing exactly what he is being asked to do in terms of his work rate and competitiveness.

 

[hungrytiger]

News this morning said Lycett and Nelson are available and showed Lycett kicking for goal. Petrie and Rioli as well. Starting to get excited.

 

[Keys]

News this morning said Lycett and Nelson are available and showed Lycett kicking for goal. Petrie and Rioli as well. Starting to get excited.

I don't think Lycett is available just yet.

Cripps, Nelson, Petrie and Rioli all a good chance to play though

 

[Goldfish]

He does act for frees but also gets rewarded sometimes so it's some sort of encouragement. All the same it is embarrassing and coupled with the two incidents where he cops a lot of flack, makes it hard to defend. That doesn't alter the fact that he runs and competes bloody hard and sets up opportunities for others. If you look at his game, he runs over most of the ground leading and chasing and this opens up the forward line for Kennedy etc. I'd bet he is doing exactly what he is being asked to do in terms of his work rate and competitiveness.

Jono Brown gave him a fair bake on On the Couch last night, showed the collision with Redpath and a couple of others. Was pretty much the only time we were talked about between that show and AFL360, so not sure why I bother tbh.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

He does act for frees but also gets rewarded sometimes so it's some sort of encouragement. All the same it is embarrassing and coupled with the two incidents where he cops a lot of flack, makes it hard to defend. That doesn't alter the fact that he runs and competes bloody hard and sets up opportunities for others. If you look at his game, he runs over most of the ground leading and chasing and this opens up the forward line for Kennedy etc. I'd bet he is doing exactly what he is being asked to do in terms of his work rate and competitiveness.

It is probably only a couple of incidents but it is 2 every week. The On The Couch was literally "Tough Jack verses not so tough Jack". Brown did say that he was normally the protector of KPF players but he believed Darling has a 6 to 8 goal game in him and wants to see it.

 

[Agent93]

If Hutchings murders the twos swap Redden out for him. He surely couldn't ball watch more.

So Hutch did alright. Hutch in for Redden. Drop Masten for shits and giggles.

Clearly Ezy got bored of defending. Going to be interesting what happens with him at season's end; he's down the pecking order here, where he'd probably be a walk up start in half the teams in the comp based on Rd 8 lineups.

 

[Marlin01]

I think one could mount a decent case to bring Mackenzie in to play on Danniher this week. He's probably our best one-on-one defender still and stopping Danniher might be worth the weaknesses Mackenzie brings i.e. Lack of rebound and team defence. It would be a big call.

 

[avishka5]

It is probably only a couple of incidents but it is 2 every week. The On The Couch was literally "Tough Jack verses not so tough Jack". Brown did say that he was normally the protector of KPF players but he believed Darling has a 6 to 8 goal game in him and wants to see it.

Jono Brown is a massive darlng fan. Has talked him up a lot and I remember when asked which player he would most want at the lions, he named darling.

 

[avishka5]

So Hutch did alright. Hutch in for Redden. Drop Masten for shits and giggles.

Clearly Ezy got bored of defending. Going to be interesting what happens with him at season's end; he's down the pecking order here, where he'd probably be a walk up start in half the teams in the comp based on Rd 8 lineups.

Redden played well. Played his role and stupid to drop him for that.

 

[Biggie]

Drop Masten for shits and giggles.

Who'd be laughing?

 

[Agent93]

Who'd be laughing?

Parto?

 

[Dark Sharks]

**** Darling.

Nobody can go around defending him when the media pot his flopping or highlight his softness. He has nobody to blame for it but himself.

I don't think he'll ever have that massive 8 goal game now, doesn't have the killer instinct in him these days.

 

[Agent93]

I'm not usually one to get caught up in that sort of chest beating, but a female field umpire is quite an achievement for her

Probably not the best turn of phrase there...

 

[Agent93]

I think it's more the fact we are soft. The web is zone defence and its all about covering dangerous space. The ball doesn't travel any further at mcg.

Goals against us against hawthorn had very little to do with covering extra space. But we didn't because we couldn't win it when in dispute and when the hawks did we were caught flat footed because we were stationary.

If you can't see how a wider ground might cause problems and stretch our defense then there's not much I can do to convince you, it clearly leaves us open to a side with precise ball movement.

It's because we're soft we leave ourselves open on a wider ground.

Hawthorn game we allowed a lot of odd man events (2 on 1s, 3 on 2s), and they beat us consistantly when they created those events. Odd man events in any sport come from players being out of position, which is generally a combination of not thinking about where you need to be, and fatigue.

On the former point, the difference in the distance between the centre square and boundary at the MCG and Subi may cause a player to think they are in the right sport (ie just off the square) when they need to be 5m closer to the boundary. That's a coaching issue if the players are using ground markings to determine where they should be in relation to the ball, and a player mentality issue if they just can't get their head around that they need to close down the wing more.

On the latter (which I suspect was more the case), players need to cover a lot more ground laterally at the G to shut down the space, which can lead to mids getting tired if there is a reliance on the same 6 or 7 guys. The Hawks domination in previous years was built around the fact that literally anyone aside from tall defenders could run through the middle at some stage. This meant there was a lot more players available to 'go' when it was their turn, and more opportunity for true mids to 'rest' on the field in forward or back pockets. The doggies last year exhibited this level of versatility down the stretch, basically playing with far fewer traditional talls than any other team. WCE are kidding themselves if they think they are at this level.

What we do have are exceptional talls which are great for a long kicking transition game straight up the guts. Which is why every time we slow our transition by running back from the mark it screws us. But that strength creates a weakness because those same talls (Kennedy, Darling, Naitanui, Lycett, Barrass, McGovern) do not relieve the midfielders on the big wide ground.

 

[ziad]

Jono Brown gave him a fair bake on On the Couch last night, showed the collision with Redpath and a couple of others. Was pretty much the only time we were talked about between that show and AFL360, so not sure why I bother tbh.

Jack took a heavy knock and got up - I fail to see the point brown is peddling. Unlike his GF against the pies.

 

[Agent93]

It is probably only a couple of incidents but it is 2 every week. The On The Couch was literally "Tough Jack verses not so tough Jack". Brown did say that he was normally the protector of KPF players but he believed Darling has a 6 to 8 goal game in him and wants to see it.

I don't want to advocate a 'JD to the midfield scenario', but a couple of events on the weekend showed me JD is very quick over the ground. There's two scenarios week-in week-out that we could use that to advantage:

1. Joe the Goose. He did it a bit against Richmond, where Rance was too concerned with not defending anyone and Grimes was too slow to go. Understanding that often the turnover after a turnover can be the killer, why not recognise that JD is the guy to go (a la Betts at Adelaide) and build around that.
2. Long lead for the outlet pass. Start high, spring long to the open space, catch pass from Hurn / Sheppard / McGovern in space. Wheel around, hit whoever is overlapping with the kick / handball. Repeat. Watch Jack Gunston circa 2013 - 2015 for pointers on how it is done.

I think the staging comes from an expectation that he's got to take the contested grabs, or win the ball in the forward line and smash a goal. If you remove that expectation from him and give it to someone who thrives on it (hungry hungry Frenchman), you might solve 2 problems at once. Hell, use Lecras and McInnes as the Kennedy decoys, and get Jack in the 'spitter' role.

 

[RookiePick]

...
What we do have are exceptional talls which are great for a long kicking transition game straight up the guts. Which is why every time we slow our transition by running back from the mark it screws us. But that strength creates a weakness because those same talls (Kennedy, Darling, Naitanui, Lycett, Barrass, McGovern) do not relieve the midfielders on the big wide ground.

Talls play tall.

It's the Sheppard, Hurn, Butler selections that can't go through the midfield at all and the complete lack of ball winning capability from the Hills, Cripps, Wellinghams that can offer a rotation. Only Lecca and Yeo can win the footy and it is really a robbing Peter to pay Paul scenario using those guys like that. Simpson does seem to be asking more of these guys around the ball but having more players who relish it rather than being assigned to the task is crucial in the big games.

That is what is exciting about Nelson and Mutimer. They look like they have potential to spell the ball winning mids. It is also a huge part of why Simpson has seemed to give Tunbridge so many lifelines.

 

[Keys]

For those that are interested go to 43.50 for Brown talking about Darling

He's spot on in his assessment

 

[eaglesfan84]

Liking the way our injury list is diminishing and seeing the form from East Perth.
View attachment 370812
Looking at stats, our forwards all kicked goals.
Our ruckmen got plenty of hitouts,
They all tackled
Our mids going plenty of the ball.

Add to the above Lord Nelson, Cripps and Petrie and the competition for spots is looking good.

That said:
I expect "no changes" unless injury related.
I would personally like to drop Butler for Nelson and Masten for Cripps given it is Etihad.

The emergency will be interesting. I would not want to take one of the returners to Melbourne just to sit on the bench.

Venables kicking 4, he's starting to turn into something, I'm excited about how good he can get when fit.

 

[Suma Magic]

Think we select four of Butler, Duggan, Mutimer, Redden, Hutchings, Nelson and Cripps.

 

[Chris_6678]

Would love for it to be:

In: Cripps, Nelson
Out: Butler, Redden

 

[Agent93]

Talls play tall.

It's the Sheppard, Hurn, Butler selections that can't go through the midfield at all and the complete lack of ball winning capability from the Hills, Cripps, Wellinghams that can offer a rotation. Only Lecca and Yeo can win the footy and it is really a robbing Peter to pay Paul scenario using those guys like that. Simpson does seem to be asking more of these guys around the ball but having more players who relish it rather than being assigned to the task is crucial in the big games.

That is what is exciting about Nelson and Mutimer. They look like they have potential to spell the ball winning mids. It is also a huge part of why Simpson has seemed to give Tunbridge so many lifelines.

Agreed. Clarko's been lucky that in points of time he's been able to spell his mids by running Roughy through there or Buddy and Gunston on the wing as link men. You look at other recent premiers, and ignoring Tom Hawkins, if your bigs aren't mobile you aren't winning. 2015 Hawks have been the only recent premier to feature both a stay at home fullback, modern tall forward, and a permanent ruckman. Our talls are still in that mould which exacerbates the issues with our smalls.

When was the last time we had a small/mid F or B with possession numbers over 20 per game for a season?

 

[Xsess]

Oh great a brand new umpire to be overly influenced by the crowd.