Unofficial Preview Changes v Brisbane (out: Moore, Brown, Daicos; in: JDG, Aish, Ox)

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CFC2010

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Yes, Mayne replaced Aish apparently. Aish averaged 301 metres gained for the 5 games he played in 2018, against different opposition of course.
Question...….does the team with the most metres gained usually win the game?
 

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jackcass

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So, I've just added three new columns, MG (Metres gained), PA (pressure acts) and D.EFF (Disposal efficiency). I was a little surprised by the results!

Mayne is celebrated for his pressure acts and he averages 1.4 pressure acts a game more than Daicos. Mayne also has a slightly higher disposal efficiency but Daicos smashes Mayne in regards to metres gained. Maynes statics show he kicks less and hand balls more which would explain the metres gained, less clangers and and a slightly better disposal efficiency than Daicos. Mayne also plays 10% more game time.

At the end of the day Daicos is in the twos and Mayne gets more opportunity, once again, I personally don't think it is warranted.

View attachment 540830
And that capacity to play 10-15% more game time is 1 of the significant advantages of playing mature bodies. There's less need to manage their game time and rotations thereby freeing up the capacity to more heavily rotate the mids.
 

cotter101

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Stephenson and WHE will enjoy having JDG back in the team. They struggled without a stronger body in there doing some tough stuff.
Yeah, these three match ups will go a long way to deciding the result as they are all dangerous players.

I’d say:

Darcy Gardiner to De Goey
Robertson to WHE
Hodge/Rich to Stephenson

We probably send Berry to Sidebottom or Pendles. He’s nullified the impact of some very good players this year.

Our pressure needs to be red hot. We should be the better team in the air but if we let you control the tempo we’re going to be in some trouble. Etihad should suit us this week.

I think it’s going to be a very close game. Hell our game earlier in the year was great football to watch. Minus the end result of course :p

If you can keep a relatively healthy list next year and land a good KPP or two, you are without a doubt a genuine premiership contenter. Unfortunately I think the injuries might have cost you this year. Anyway, best of luck for the remainder of the season.
 

good4footy

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Question...….does the team with the most metres gained usually win the game?
I posted around a month ago it is one of the key indicators to a win. It is over 90% success rate (can't remember exact figure) if you win contested possessions, disposal efficiency and meteres gained.
 

jackcass

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Yes, Mayne replaced Aish apparently. Aish averaged 301 metres gained for the 5 games he played in 2018, against different opposition of course.
I'd certainly prefer Aish in the side over Mayne but these comparisons are pretty pointless due to their respective styles. Aish brings a more offensively minded approach (takes the game on and always look to move the footy forward, takes risks) to his play, Mayne more defensive (looks to mitigate his opponent, maintain possession rather than take risks).
 

Rorzza

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I'd certainly prefer Aish in the side over Mayne but these comparisons are pretty pointless due to their respective styles. Aish brings a more offensively minded approach (takes the game on and always look to move the footy forward, takes risks) to his play, Mayne more defensive (looks to mitigate his opponent, maintain possession rather than take risks).
Yes, me too.
 
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Quicky

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One thing The Ox has is a good boot, he's calm, hits targets and can take a good mark. He isn't threatbinng by any means or (I assume) overly strong in the one on one though. How has he gone in the VFL this year I recall him being g mentioned in the bests numerous times?
BACK THE OX IN could be the missing piece of the puzzle
I always considered Oxleys kicking over rated and inconsistent. Tracer bullet one minute, turn over the next.
 

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Rorzza

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My understanding of how metres gained is calculated is the radial distance from the position a player disposes of the football to the position the receiving player disposes of the football, direction is irrelevant and what team the receiving player is on is also irrelevant.

So, Mayne could dispose of the footy off the half back flank straight to an opposition player, who runs 50 m into the goal square and kicks a goal. The metres gained is calculated in a straight line direction from where Mayne disposes of the ball to where the opposition player kicks the goal, accounting for nearly one third of Mayne's average metres gained for the day.

Edit: the distance run by the opposition player is docked from the disposing player.
 
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Horaceg

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I'd certainly prefer Aish in the side over Mayne but these comparisons are pretty pointless due to their respective styles. Aish brings a more offensively minded approach (takes the game on and always look to move the footy forward, takes risks) to his play, Mayne more defensive (looks to mitigate his opponent, maintain possession rather than take risks).
I think most would but Mayne has been effective this year and I give him his dues, nothing flash but I am feeling comfortable when he is at the contest. I am hoping the lay off for Aish has him cherry ripe coming into the potential finals campaign, he has more levels in him and lets hope he can find them this year. Excited to have Aish back.
 

jackcass

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My understanding of how metres gained is calculated is the radial distance from the position a player disposes of the football to the position the receiving player disposes of the football, direction is irrelevant and what team the receiving player is on is also irrelevant.

So, Mayne could dispose of the footy off the half back flank straight to an opposition player, who runs 50 m into the goal square and kicks a goal. The metres gained is calculated in a straight line direction from where Mayne disposes of the ball to where the opposition player kicks the goal, accounting for nearly one third of Mayne's average metres gained for the day.
I've always thought it was +/- (+ if it moves forward, - if it moves back) the distance the air conveyance is moved by said player from point A to point B. Wasn't aware further progression to point C or D had any bearing.
 

jackcass

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I think most would but Mayne has been effective this year and I give him his dues, nothing flash but I am feeling comfortable when he is at the contest. I am hoping the lay off for Aish has him cherry ripe coming into the potential finals campaign, he has more levels in him and lets hope he can find them this year. Excited to have Aish back.
Agree. IMO Phillips is actually the guy who needs to lift.
 

Rorzza

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I've always thought it was +/- (+ if it moves forward, - if it moves back) the distance the air conveyance is moved by said player from point A to point B. Wasn't aware further progression to point C or D had any bearing.
Yes that is correct, if a player turns the ball over it is counted as negative
 

The Sherriff

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Yeah, these three match ups will go a long way to deciding the result as they are all dangerous players.

I’d say:

Darcy Gardiner to De Goey
Robertson to WHE
Hodge/Rich to Stephenson
Are you suggesting Hodge play off Stephenson so he can be 3rd man up / intercept more often? Obviously 1 on 1 he'd win without a doubt, but when the ball hits the deck there is no chance in hell Hodge catches him. I reckon that's a risky move considering Stephenson has never been a key target, he's performed much better as a runner out the back or crumbing the loose ball.

Hodge would be better of trying to build a wall around Cox IMO. Not that I want to see that actually happen :p
 

cotter101

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Are you suggesting Hodge play off Stephenson so he can be 3rd man up / intercept more often? Obviously 1 on 1 he'd win without a doubt, but when the ball hits the deck there is no chance in hell Hodge catches him. I reckon that's a risky move considering Stephenson has never been a key target, he's performed much better as a runner out the back or crumbing the loose ball.

Hodge would be better of trying to build a wall around Cox IMO. Not that I want to see that actually happen :p
Hodgey has has had to match up on players that are in the top few in the comp. He doesn’t tend to get found out much when the ball hits the deck due to his positioning. I’d say Rich is more likely to match up though. He’s actually found an extra gear in terms of speed this year.
 

MayneSpudHunter

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You do know he was the All Australian CHB in 2011 don't you?

Yes. But I also know for the majority of the last two years, he has being played at CHF. I would hope Buckley can see Reid move as an experiment and play him in defence, where we are clearly lacking
 

Schraderbrau

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Hodgey has has had to match up on players that are in the top few in the comp. He doesn’t tend to get found out much when the ball hits the deck due to his positioning. I’d say Rich is more likely to match up though. He’s actually found an extra gear in terms of speed this year.
Hodge/Rich on Stephenson is a great result for Collingwood. He will burn them on the lead from the goalsquare and they will also be super vulnerable when the ball gets over the back. There is no real good match up for either of them in our forwardline. Probably one of them gets Thomas but even he's probably got a bit too much pace for them. If Aish plays across half forward like he did all preseason then that would probably be the best result. Playing on any of WHE, Stephenson, JDG is a bad matchup imo.

I'd probably put Gardiner on WHE reasoning that its JDG's first match back and might be short of touch and match fitness and worth risking robertson on him.
 

Horaceg

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Agree. IMO Phillips is actually the guy who needs to lift.
Have to remember Phillips was pretty much a fringe type player at the start of the year, had a purple patch when we had a full strength mid field where he was left alone a little. He does need to step up but his progress this year has been handy.
 

Quicky

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Stephenson and WHE will enjoy having JDG back in the team. They struggled without a stronger body in there doing some tough stuff.
It gives pause for thought about where to best use JDG. The dynamic with those three and Thomas is pretty powerful.
 

hellfire

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Been a long time between drinks for the Ox - be good to see how he goes. Happy Brown is out.
Brown was terrible against the Swans but I felt he was solid against the Tigers. Still, we’re a stronger side this week for the change.
 
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