Preview Changes v Brisbane - Round 12, 2021

[Jamurp]

This was the greatest thing to come out of 'Moneyball'.

 

[AmericanAFL]

“That’s what losing sounds like”

 

[Bluelegs]

Moneyball is the greatest movie ever and I hate to see its name sullied by fox.
Moneyball is going after the players who are being severely underrated and available for nothing.
You can kind of say they've used a moneyball approach with McCarthy and Cockatoo as they got them for not much.
But Daniher, Neale, Cameron, Hodge, Birchall are all in top tier of player's, they had contracts available and they chose Brisbane.
First rounders were used for Neale and Caneron and they're paying Daniher $700k+ a year. That's not moneyball, moneyball doesn't exist in AFL as teams have to spend a minimum amount of salary cap.
The closest thing I can say to moneyball is Sydney using the rookie draft to draft the core of its list, nothing else like it.

From my understanding, the thing that made the Moneyball strategy so clever was that they based all their list management decisions on statistical analysis and mathematics. This is not a strategy that has ever been applied effectively at AFL level because there are far too many variables to effectivley understand the value any given player adds to their team based on stats alone.

Organisations such as Champion Data are trying to make AFL statistics more sophisticated but even there we see a level of bias as to how much certain stats are valued over others.

Take the stats of Ed Langdon and Brad Hill. One player has been maligned for the quality of their season, the other is being talked about in AA contention.

Spoiler: Stats

If you only looked at stats the players don't look that far apart. You could probably tell that Ed is having the better season but not significantly. It's only by watching the games and seeing the impact both players have that you can really see how far apart they are.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Yea, baseball is tailor made for statistical analysis and finding inefficiencies in how the herd values assets.

 

[AmericanAFL]

I could imagine a future where AI/machine learning is used to analyze game tape and determine the actual effectiveness of AFL players. I can also imagine that the findings wouldn’t match very closely to commonly held beliefs/opinions.

 

[Bluelegs]

I could imagine a future where AI/machine learning is used to analyze game tape and determine the actual effectiveness of AFL players. I can also imagine that the findings wouldn’t match very closely to commonly held beliefs/opinions.

The future is going to be ridiculously boring.

 

[AmericanAFL]

The future is going to be ridiculously boring.

The NFL didn’t get more boring when teams started understanding how to make 4th down decisions.

Baseball and basketball did get worse however.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I miss centres who had post moves and the unguadable beauty of a Jordan mid range fadeaway in basketball.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Baseball is the funniest spot in the world. A sport with personalities, ethics and unwritten rules still stuck 1908. I genuinely crack up over it. Absolute pissah.

 

[AmericanAFL]

I miss centres who had post moves and the unguadable beauty of a Jordan mid range fadeaway in basketball.

Not allowed to shoot from either of those places mate.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Not allowed to shoot from either of those places mate.

So sad. What is defense also?

 

[ImissFrosty]

I miss centres who had post moves and the unguadable beauty of a Jordan mid range fadeaway in basketball.

Embiid is pretty good in the post but there isn't much after that.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Embiid is pretty good in the post but there isn't much after that.

Centres got soft so fast

 

[ImissFrosty]

Centres got soft so fast

yeah, although it is pretty cool to see Jokic pullin up from deep and dropping full court dimes.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Shaq would be a developmental second round pick today cause he can't shoot a three.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

yeah, although it is pretty cool to see Jokic pullin up from deep and dropping full court dimes.

Arvydas Sabonis was doing all that in the 90s.

 

[Tulip]

“They’re building a culture. I just love the profile that they’ve done on their Moneyball, because what someone else’s trash is our treasure, and they build it so well.”

poetry

cocaine is a hell of a drug

 

[Theseventhhamster]

I miss centres who had post moves and the unguadable beauty of a Jordan mid range fadeaway in basketball.

Analytics getting the blame is a total furphy, the way the game is officiated is the issue. In the 90s you could push around perimeter players but post players got protected. Now you not only can't touch outside the 3 point line, you also can jump near the player and even if you do jump and avoid the 'shooter' jumping sideways into you, he could also shoot out a karate kick leg to catch you or land forward/back/a mile over there and get a foul for you being in his landing zone.

In the post however, shove a guy in the air, grab him etc and it's all good. Plus in earlier eras you weren't allowed to double a guy until he had the ball, zones weren't really allowed etc.

 

[Imet Hassa]

Tmac -> wing
Petty -> forward
Fritch -> back
Hunt -> inside mid
Harmes -> back

Solved.

I think you left out Trac to Med sub

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Analytics getting the blame is a total furphy, the way the game is officiated is the issue. In the 90s you could push around perimeter players but post players got protected. Now you not only can't touch outside the 3 point line, you also can jump near the player and even if you do jump and avoid the 'shooter' jumping sideways into you, he could also shoot out a karate kick leg to catch you or land forward/back/a mile over there and get a foul for you being in his landing zone.

In the post however, shove a guy in the air, grab him etc and it's all good. Plus in earlier eras you weren't allowed to double a guy until he had the ball, zones weren't really allowed etc.

Yea, * zone defense, bring back illegal defense.

I hate today's basketball so much but God damn I enjoyed watching Lillard yesterday, clutch as *, reminded me of Reggie Miller.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Yea, fu** zone defense, bring back illegal defense.

I hate today's basketball so much but God damn I enjoyed watching Lillard yesterday, clutch as fu**, reminded me of Reggie Miller.

haha illegal defense was garbage, led to the inevitable collapse of US basketball in international comps until it was scrapped and guards/wings had to learn to shoot.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

haha illegal defense was garbage, led to the inevitable collapse of US basketball in international comps until it was scrapped and guards/wings had to learn to shoot.

Shooting is boring!

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Shooting is boring!

haha I get you, I want shooters on my team for spacing tho, jump shots are just a % game. I wanna make you try and stop me getting a bucket at the rim.

 

[schmuttt]

Win this and we will be 3 games clear of 4th going into the QB game. Just another opportunity to give ourselves some breathing room in the top 2.

 

[Meds]

Shooting is boring!

100%. It's what you do to pull the defence out so you can get back to the real business of cutting into space, getting in the lane or feeding the post.

You shouldn't get an assist for passing to someone on the perimeter who hits a 3. Takes no skill to do that. Finding a cutter who's heading to the basket is where it's at.