Review Changes V Carlton

[Scotty_222]

hopefully they give toy a full run and he plays ok, might add some value to him when we trade him

 

[Dammit]

But if he doesn't play well, and only get his two handballs, it really shows him up. I say shelve him for the year with some 'injury' so hopefully other clubs think he's been troubled by injury this year so that's why he's been underperforming.

 

[supernova_]

Odds are up on Sportsbet

Gold Coast $13.00
Carlton $1.02

The line is 60.5 points @ $1.92

Odds going out already...

Gold Coast $17.00
Carlton $1.01

The line is now 62.5 points @ $1.92

 

[SUNS]

Odds going out already...

Gold Coast $17.00
Carlton $1.01

The line is now 62.5 points @ $1.92

I like that line. I don't think we have been playing too badly, can't see us losing by 10 goals at home?

Only Sydney have beaten us by 10 goals at home in the second half of the year. I think Carlton by 35

 

[supernova_]

I like that line. I don't think we have been playing too badly, can't see us losing by 10 goals at home?

Only Sydney have beaten us by 10 goals at home in the second half of the year. I think Carlton by 35

Our midfield is our strength against argueably one of the best midfields on paper. We shouldn't be TOO far off the pace in the centre of the ground statistically and I agree with you.

Just checked some numbers on www.footywire.com

Our average losing margin is about 45 points this year.

The last 7 rounds our average differential is 25 points, which includes our 2 wins. Based on these statistics, we should be able to cover the line comfurtably?

The line is still going out...its now out to 64.5 points @ $1.92

 

[SUNS]

Our midfield is our strength against argueably one of the best midfields on paper. We shouldn't be TOO far off the pace in the centre of the ground statistically and I agree with you.

Just checked some numbers on www.footywire.com

Our average losing margin is about 45 points this year.

The last 7 rounds our average differential is 25 points, which includes our 2 wins. Based on these statistics, we should be able to cover the line comfurtably?

The line is still going out...its now out to 64.5 points @ $1.92

I might have to look at some of the other lines and turn it into a tasty multi!

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

I think if we put together a firm 4 quarters we are in with a legitimate chance.
Would love to see Gillbee get a run after his NEAFL performance last week.

 

[supernova_]

I think if we put together a firm 4 quarters we are in with a legitimate chance.
Would love to see Gillbee get a run after his NEAFL performance last week.

through the guts? or forward line?

 

[Sunny_]

Call me the doom and gloom, but I don't think we're in for a big chance this week.

We've lost so much of our midfield strength, meaning that Gazza can't go for extended stints in the forward line anymore. At 3QT time I wager it will just die again. Unlike other teams who will probably take it slightly easy against us, Carlton will come out guns blazing. They NEED to get percentage for their finals run, and will be gunning to put us out extremely quickly.

At least it will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

So yeah, not expecting a win. Once again, I'll just be looking for signs. May and Magin in particular. Hopefully Gillbee too.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

through the guts? or forward line?

Do not know his capabilities well enough to say whether hed play in the middle but I would say the HFF would be a good place to start given Magin and Brown will most likely play deep.

 

[supernova_]

Do not know his capabilities well enough to say whether hed play in the middle but I would say the HFF would be a good place to start given Magin and Brown will most likely play deep.

That was going to be my assumption also, I've never seen the fella play in the magoos. Was also thinking that you might have seen him in the ressies and going off your lead

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

Call me the doom and gloom, but I don't think we're in for a big chance this week.

We've lost so much of our midfield strength, meaning that Gazza can't go for extended stints in the forward line anymore. At 3QT time I wager it will just die again. Unlike other teams who will probably take it slightly easy against us, Carlton will come out guns blazing. They NEED to get percentage for their finals run, and will be gunning to put us out extremely quickly.

At least it will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

So yeah, not expecting a win. Once again, I'll just be looking for signs. May and Magin in particular. Hopefully Gillbee too.

I would say your more than likely right there, can't hurt to dream though!
The main thing I am basing our chance on however is the fact Carlton have not played us in yonks nor have they played at our home ground before.
It is highly possible for Carlton to have a slow start or a mid game lapse and give rise to the possibility of a good clash but as you said, injuries have killed us.

 

[Sunny_]

Gillbee should definitely be playing in the forward half. Has looked very damaging in the 2s as a small forward and really learning that role well.

 

[TheJaegerBomb]

That was going to be my assumption also, I've never seen the fella play in the magoos. Was also thinking that you might have seen him in the ressies and going off your lead

Nah was going off stats unfortunately!

 

[supernova_]

Call me the doom and gloom, but I don't think we're in for a big chance this week.

We've lost so much of our midfield strength, meaning that Gazza can't go for extended stints in the forward line anymore. At 3QT time I wager it will just die again. Unlike other teams who will probably take it slightly easy against us, Carlton will come out guns blazing. They NEED to get percentage for their finals run, and will be gunning to put us out extremely quickly.

At least it will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

So yeah, not expecting a win. Once again, I'll just be looking for signs. May and Magin in particular. Hopefully Gillbee too.

boooooo, we didn't do too badly last week against Hawthorn whose midfield was only missing Mitchell. Compared to our best midfield missing Swallow, Prestia, Rischitelli, Hunt.

The deciding factor will be whether they try to take Ablett out of the game or negate him. A lot of teams haven't really bothered this year it seems. But Hawthorn don't really have a tagger or negative midfielder, while Carlton does. So it will be interesting nonetheless.

I just want dicko back to be honest and hope the team stays relatively the same, Aaron hall should come back in also wouldnt he?

 

[Sunny_]

Azza Hall out for the season, along with a host of others.

Should be good seeing Dixon back Warnock up as a tall in the back-line. They may swap Dixon and May back and forth as the game progresses.

 

[supernova_]

Maybe your right Sunny, Dixon to go to the backline as he is more mobile and atheletic for the Carlton lively forwardline.

What do you think of maybe Coad going forward rather than dropping him? Gives another target at least.

 

[Sunny_]

Coad should be dropped for Dixon.

I think Coad showed endeavour against the Hawks, but unfortunately he's just not up to AFL speed. If the bigger Hawk forwards got around him with agility so easily, Betts and Garlett will rip him to shreds. Dixon at least has a bit more experience in reading the flight and dives/lunges to get them.

 

[supernova_]

Preview from AFL website

WHERE AND WHEN: Metricon Stadium, Saturday August 25, 7.40pm
LAST TIME: Carlton 26.15 (171) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52), round 2, 2011, at the Gabba
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and odds

Carlton makes its first trip to the Gold Coast with a top-eight spot still up for grabs. The Blues' thumping of Essendon last week has moved them into ninth, and a win at Metricon Stadium, combined with a Fremantle loss to North Melbourne, would have the Blues in pole position for a finals berth entering the last round. It won't be easy though. Gold Coast has shown some genuine steel at home and was competitive against Hawthorn last start, but the Blues would appear to have too much to play for.

THE FOUR POINTS
GOLD COAST
1. Can Gary Ablett collect more votes on his march to an unlikely Brownlow Medal? The Suns' skipper continues to stand head and shoulders above his teammates (and the opposition) despite his team being regularly beaten. Last week against Hawthorn it was 43 disposals and two goals in another first class display. This week he faces dual Brownlow medallist Chris Judd in a mouth-watering midfield match-up.

2. Steven May showed more in four quarters last week than a few of his teammates have shown all season. The 22-disposal, 12-mark, three-goal performance against premiership defender Stephen Gilham was a breakout game for the 20-year-old from the Northern Territory. While Sam Day and Tom Lynch have shown glimpses this season, neither has been so commanding in a single showing. If May can come close to replicating that form over the final two weeks of the season, he has the inside running on a more permanent spot next year.

3. Gold Coast is running out of healthy troops, so repeating last week's effort against Hawthorn will be difficult. They competed hard against the premiership favourites for four quarters, but with fewer than 30 fit players to choose from, there's a danger of a let-down this week. The burden will again fall heavily on experienced campaigners Ablett, Campbell Brown, Jared Brennan and Matthew Warnock to hold firm, with help from the likes of youngsters Harley Bennell and Josh Caddy, who have played every game this year.

4. With the season coming to an end and the Suns needing to chop eight players from its list, chances are running out for some. The likes of Alik Magin and Taylor Hine pressed their cases for 2013 with strong showings last week. Guy McKenna will be a hoping a couple more of his young men give him some list management headaches with good performances against the Blues.

CARLTON
1. Plenty of Carlton fans will be eyeing this game as a potential percentage booster ahead of the pivotal St Kilda match to close out the home-and-away season, but Brett Ratten won't be taking the Suns lightly. The Blues have worked hard to put themselves back in a position to challenge for a finals spot and the coach will be well aware that any complacency could prove costly.

2. Judd had 23 touches in his first game back from a four-week suspension last week against the Bombers and he'll be better for the run. Carlton's midfield is starting to look like it did early in the season when the Blues were world-beaters and Judd is obviously a major piece in that puzzle. The Suns don't have a tagger capable of running with Judd all match and Ratten will be looking for the dual Brownlow medallist to return to the top of his game in preparation for the Saints.

3. The Blues have an interesting decision to make on first-choice full-back Michael Jamison. He's missed the past two weeks with a hamstring strain, but is slated to return against the Suns. Do they bring him back in against an opponent they're expected to beat or do they take the conservative approach to ensure he's cherry ripe for the season finale?

4. Carlton's forward set-up has a more balanced look about it with Jarrad Waite back at centre half-forward and Levi Casboult is proving a capable foil. The 22-year-old has taken a while to come on, but he's starting to repay the Blues' faith. He's improved with each game he's played and was an important player in the big win against the Bombers with three goals. The Blues will be hoping he can take another step forward against the tiring Suns.

AFL.com.au prediction: Carlton by 35 points

Pretty big dig at our other budding forwards in point 2 for us. May showing more than his team mates all season.

I must say Bennell and Caddy have been quite resilient this year and dont look like they've slowed down from a long season, good on em.

I think the line here is much more accurate than what Sportsbet is offering also which has dissapeared for at the moment for whatever reason, big bet or big outs/ins being announced?

 

[supernova_]

Coad should be dropped for Dixon.

I think Coad showed endeavour against the Hawks, but unfortunately he's just not up to AFL speed. If the bigger Hawk forwards got around him with agility so easily, Betts and Garlett will rip him to shreds. Dixon at least has a bit more experience in reading the flight and dives/lunges to get them.

Coad would never play on those 2 though? Would more likely lineup against Casboult, and perhaps Warnock to Waite.

 

[Sunny_]

I would go something like,

Out: Coad, Toy, McQualter, Flanagan
In: Dixon, Iles, Gillbee, McKenzie

FB: Iles, Dixon, Stanley
HB: McKenzie, Warnock, Harbrow
C: Shaw, Ablett, Bennell
HF: Magin, Lynch, Matera
FF: Brown, May, Brennan

Fol: Hickey, Caddy, Horsley

Int: Weller, Hine, Gillbee
Sub: Taylor

McKenzie and Harbrow will all have to stay in defence to keep their zippy forwards quiet. Love keeping them off half back though to stream out of defence. They both have the pace.

Warnock to Waite. With the outrageous form Warnock is in, hopefully Waite quiet. Will have to rely on our mids to make sure they don't get it lace out though, or not much Warnock can do.

 

[supernova_]

ah yeah, forgot about mckenzie. Probably swap Bennell with McKenzie for mine.

Bennell rightfooter, and McKenzie left footer, not that it matters much. But much prefer Bennell's use of the ball under pressure and coming out of defence than McKenzie's. McKenzie tries to kick the cover off it too often and the way he swings his leg doesn't always come off (see Suckling but he's better/consistent at it).

 

[kreglze]

Preview from AFL website



Pretty big dig at our other budding forwards in point 2 for us. May showing more than his team mates all season.

I must say Bennell and Caddy have been quite resilient this year and dont look like they've slowed down from a long season, good on em.

I think the line here is much more accurate than what Sportsbet is offering also which has dissapeared for at the moment for whatever reason, big bet or big outs/ins being announced?

Yeah I know, but from a person that isn't a GC supporter you can see why they think that, I can't remember a game other than Day's 4 goals that one of our young forwards had a commanding presence. Day and Lynch try, but May did on the weekend, and put the runs on the board.

 

[exile]

I went along to the open training this evening, and here were a few of my thoughts/observations:

- Ablett didn't train at all
- Of all the injuries, Dixon and Iles were at full training, Patrick was running laps for the whole night, Caddy was in the main group to start with, then after the stretching session he started doing laps with Patrick but at a faster pace, then wasn't out on the ground for the last hour.
- As a result of our injuries, a fair few of the coaches chucked on a guernsey for the match simulation stuff. Magin laid a nice tackle on Bluey.

If anyone wants to ask how anyone went, feel free. I took some photos, might see how they went then upload a few.

 

[SUNS]

I went along to the open training this evening, and here were a few of my thoughts/observations:

- Ablett didn't train at all
- Of all the injuries, Dixon and Iles were at full training, Patrick was running laps for the whole night, Caddy was in the main group to start with, then after the stretching session he started doing laps with Patrick but at a faster pace, then wasn't out on the ground for the last hour.
- As a result of our injuries, a fair few of the coaches chucked on a guernsey for the match simulation stuff. Magin laid a nice tackle on Bluey.

If anyone wants to ask how anyone went, feel free. I took some photos, might see how they went then upload a few.

Was Karmichael out and about?