Prediction Changes v Cats (Thurs 22 May, 7:30pm @ Alphabet)

[threenewpadlocks]

We've been here so many times before. We're on a hot streak, the media is hyping us up to be the best thing since sliced bread, we miss the 4 and get booted out of finals week one. Would love this year to be different. We need to sustain what we have started building and pinch a win as underdogs here. I hope we go into this match feeling like underdogs too because that's when we play our best.

If you go season by season what you described has literally never happened. The seasons which we dropped out of the top 4 (after media hype) we won finals in 2016 and 2021.

In 2019, 20, 22 and 24, we came from outside finals places to make finals and nobody was really talking us up. Okay we got knocked out but it's not as if there were periods during the home-and-away season when anyone was really talking us up as a top 4 side in round 10 or 17 or whatever.

 

[The Inbetweener]

If you go season by season what you described has literally never happened. The seasons which we dropped out of the top 4 (after media hype) we won finals in 2016 and 2021.

In 2019, 20, 22 and 24, we came from outside finals places to make finals and nobody was really talking us up. Okay we got knocked out but it's not as if there were periods during the home-and-away season when anyone was really talking us up as a top 4 side in round 10 or 17 or whatever.

Disagree re 2019 and 2024. We were being talked up in a big way as the form team of the competition heading into finals.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

I won't go too hard on Bailey if he misses the game, if you put aside your bloodthirst for a second, he's still a complex young man who clearly has his troubles. You'd hope he would be able to play but after the week we've had if there's a chance he isn't mentally up to it then you just accept it for what it is and focus on what you can control.

Is this a joke?

 

[Wetdog]

Agree. The psychology of being favourites does funny things. Complacency is an obvious one. A sudden bout of self-consciousness leading to self-doubt is another. If we start to overthink things we can lose our fluency, spontaneity and self-belief.

That's Bevo's challenge ... but it's also his favourite turf.

We need to be comfortable being overdogs.

I don’t think we are favourites.

The odds are Cats $1.86 Dogs $1.98.

The tippers (AFL tipping 400k plus tippers) are Cats 71% Dogs 29%.

We may be flavour of the month with certain media, but it doesn’t mean much if we don’t get over the line on at least one of the next two games. We need minimum one win or we are not serious in my view.

 

[BigFloppa]

If you go season by season what you described has literally never happened. The seasons which we dropped out of the top 4 (after media hype) we won finals in 2016 and 2021.

In 2019, 20, 22 and 24, we came from outside finals places to make finals and nobody was really talking us up. Okay we got knocked out but it's not as if there were periods during the home-and-away season when anyone was really talking us up as a top 4 side in round 10 or 17 or whatever.

Last year we were being described as the form team of the comp before squandering a chance of top four by losing to a mediocre Adelaide side then getting sent home in week 1 of finals. We had a hot streak in which we beat Carlton, Sydney and Geelong away in consecutive weeks, all were top four at the time we played them.

 

[maddog37]

Hope for the best expecting the worst.

 

[Unorth]

We were absolutely talked up last year heading in to finals.

Squiggle loved us. We were the most in form team heading in after a few scalps.

And we shit the bed. There’s no other way to spin that game other than a huge let down relative to expectations.

But that’s why you finish top 4 and get the double chance to account for a bad showing.

 

[go_sports_team]

We were absolutely talked up last year heading in to finals.

Squiggle loved us. We were the most in form team heading in after a few scalps.

And we shit the bed. There’s no other way to spin that game other than a huge let down relative to expectations.

But that’s why you finish top 4 and get the double chance to account for a bad showing.

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

 

[fargy]

Let's not forget we were 66-1 outsiders going into the 2016 finals series.

There are two morals to that:

1. The models are interesting but ultimately our destiny lies with us, not the modellers. We only have one job between now and the end of August. That's to make the top 4. Keep it simple. When we have finished top 4 we can start thinking about how we might win our next three. (Top 2 would be ideal to avoid the risk of travel, but we have shown on several occasions that we can win finals interstate if we have to.)

2. Don't be flattered by the odds if we are highly fancied. And don't be depressed if we are listed as long shots. If we have the cattle (which we do this year) we just need to get them on the park and playing their best team football. I know it's only Round 11 and there's plenty of time for things to change. But on 2025 form across the league so far I don't think there's any team that can match us when we are at our best.

Well said. I’m not sure if the whole play better as underdogs rather than favourites is a real thing for us (it definitely seems like it is). Form fluctuates & generally it’s those who can hold form for the longest that can get the double chance over a year.

I do enjoy the models, though. It’s interesting to see the differences between each (Live ladders is one that’s not as keen on us for instance). The statistical prediction side interests me, even though I’m not overly knowledgeable in the how of it all.

 

[Doggy Dan]

We were absolutely talked up last year heading in to finals.

Squiggle loved us. We were the most in form team heading in after a few scalps.

And we shit the bed. There’s no other way to spin that game other than a huge let down relative to expectations.

But that’s why you finish top 4 and get the double chance to account for a bad showing.

We had a major disruption in that final that won’t be there this year.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

We don’t seem as reliant on the same players to get it done each week, so you’d have to say yes.

 

[go_sports_team]

We don’t seem as reliant on the same players to get it done each week, so you’d have to say yes.

Exactly my thoughts. Our bottom 6 aren't a liability like they have been for years and we have such an even spread of contributors.

 

[Unorth]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

I think so too, tentatively, but we have some work to do.

Our A graders probably much the same. The role players around them look much improved…but I want to see how they look under pressure rather than in 90 point beltings of shit teams.

Cats, Hawks, Lions games will be telling in terms of how serious we are. As much as you can’t put too much stock into any individual H&A game.

But with Darcy coming back and most of our season to be played at Marvel…this season is a massive opportunity.

 

[Wetdog]

Last year we were being described as the form team of the comp before squandering a chance of top four by losing to a mediocre Adelaide side then getting sent home in week 1 of finals. We had a hot streak in which we beat Carlton, Sydney and Geelong away in consecutive weeks, all were top four at the time we played them.

Yes, the media feels similar to the lead up to our finals campaign last year.

We were absolutely talked up last year heading in to finals.

Squiggle loved us. We were the most in form team heading in after a few scalps.

And we shit the bed. There’s no other way to spin that game other than a huge let down relative to expectations.

But that’s why you finish top 4 and get the double chance to account for a bad showing.

Very true. But the double chance doesn’t always save you if you are not good enough (see GWS 2024).

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

The vibe says “yes” but the results say “not proven yet”.

 

[BigFloppa]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

So far this year, the best side we have beaten is currently 8th on the ladder. We are basically flat track bullies. I'm not convinced we are serious this year until we take some decent scalps.

 

[cherrypie]

Interesting how the fixture works. Since 2020, we’ve had 4 home games against Geelong, only 2 of those were in Victoria. In Geelong have had 5 home games, all in Geelong. This will be the 4th straight game against Geelong not played at Marvel (or Mars)

 

[House_of_Dahl]

We were absolutely talked up last year heading in to finals.

Squiggle loved us. We were the most in form team heading in after a few scalps.

And we shit the bed. There’s no other way to spin that game other than a huge let down relative to expectations.

But that’s why you finish top 4 and get the double chance to account for a bad showing.

Yeah but this ignores the shit show that was the two hour lead up to the game. A massive distraction

 

[bresker]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

We're a tighter unit. The band have lost and gained members but the rehearsals have paid off.

 

[Spiritof82]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

We are now playing with 23 players rather than last year when it was 22 players and JUH attending for seagull watching duties

 

[Angak]

We had a major disruption in that final that won’t be there this year.

We also struggled in the two games after our bye last year. North actually ran out the game better than us after the mid-season bye, which is why I was a bit tentative going into the Hawks elimination game.
Also, Hopefully this time around, Weightman isn’t running a week-long art exhibition during the bye. Probably not the ideal preparation for a big final.

 

[Doggy]

We are now playing with 23 players rather than last year when it was 22 players and JUH attending for seagull watching duties

You do realise in particular that 3 game stretch against top 4 teams he killed all 3

 

[Dogs Rule]

Can't s*** the bed tomorrow. Got to win this.

Dolan in. One change.

I'm quietly confident we're made of sterner stuff than previous years and we have a backbone this time.

We can do this. Dangerflog out, Stewart back after a while out, we're firing, Smith to be deposited into Row A... GET IT DONE!

 

[Bulldogs85]

You do realise in particular that 3 game stretch against top 4 teams he killed all 3

I wouldn’t waste my time that poster always has a crack at JUH but goes into hiding when he plays well

 

[BigFloppa]

JUH was absolutely dominant for us last year when our form was peaking. He let us down in the final but our forward line was much more dynamic and dangerous with JUH when he was in form.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Are we a better team now than last year? Genuine question. I think we are.

Yes. And thats because we had the courage to move on two great servants of the club who just weren't aggressive enough with their ball movement and replaced them with guys that are. Gone are the days were we'd crab it around the boundary and then bomb it onto the head of Naughton or JUH and hope for the best.

Of course, Macrae and Daniel weren't to blame for this, but the inherent way they played was emblematic of it.