Prediction Changes v Dogs

[Boohemian]

Hutch out for Duggan. Simple. Karps in if the match committee want to drop Giles for more run. Don't know why he wasn't in last week ahead of Hutch.

 

[sey666]

Duggan in for Redden (not much difference but prefer to keep Hutchings over Redden)
Jetta in for Giles
Play Mutimer in the Midfield and Jetta as a half forward.

Player|Average metres gained
\Yeo|489.3
\Gaff|460.8
\Shuey|422.0
\Mitchell|301.9
\Sheed|294.7
\Masten|261.6
\Priddiss|250.9
\Duggan|246.0
\Jetta|231.9
\Hutchings|176.6
\Mutimer|161.6
\ Redden|136.4

If you think Redden's numbers above look bad then consider this: out of all the 29 players we have used so far this season, the only players who average less than Redden in the above statistic are Vardy (117.5), Mackenzie (98.4) and Giles (93.5).
Redden's possesion numbers are very low for a senior midfielder and what this statistic suggests is that his disposals are not going too far on the rare occasions when he do get the ball. He often handballs in a hurry to a teammate who is surrounded opposition players. His kicks to Handball ratio this year is 0.63 (last year it was 0.73) - this is opposite to what is was in his time at Brisbane (for example, it was 1.10 in 2015). His average meters gained numbers are also look reasonable at Brisbane. Apparently he is fit, has played 7 games in a row and hence continuity is not an issue, so could somebody explain why the numbers look so different to those he had at Brisbane?
With players like Redden and Giles around, no wonder we struggled to get the ball out of our defensive 50 against Port. I understand that lack of intent is a serious concern with Jetta but would take 12 disposals from him over 12 disposals from Redden any day.

 

[frenchconnection]

Well, he gets picked every other week for a poor return, lets play topsy turvy and dump him after a good week. Most of my post was tongue in cheek, honestly this week I think it's probably worth dropping one of the two lumbering beasts and bringing back Hey Duggee. Nothing else really needed.

Is Vardy considered a lumbering beast - Giles definitely is but thought Vardy is more agile?

 

[Boohemian]

Duggan in for Redden (not much difference but prefer to keep Hutchings over Redden)
Jetta in for Giles
Play Mutimer in the Midfield and Jetta as a half forward.

Player|Average metres gained
\Yeo|489.3
\Gaff|460.8
\Shuey|422.0
\Mitchell|301.9
\Sheed|294.7
\Masten|261.6
\Priddiss|250.9
\Duggan|246.0
\Jetta|231.9
\Hutchings|176.6
\Mutimer|161.6
\ Redden|136.4

If you think Redden's numbers above look bad then consider this: out of all the 29 players we have used so far this season, the only players who average less than Redden in the above statistic are Vardy (117.5), Mackenzie (98.4) and Giles (93.5).
Redden's possesion numbers are very low for a senior midfielder and what this statistic suggests is that his disposals are not going too far on the rare occasions when he do get the ball. He often handballs in a hurry to a teammate who is surrounded opposition players. His kicks to Handball ratio this year is 0.63 (last year it was 0.73) - this is opposite to what is was in his time at Brisbane (for example, it was 1.10 in 2015). His average meters gained numbers are also look reasonable at Brisbane. Apparently he is fit, has played 7 games in a row and hence continuity is not an issue, so could somebody explain why the numbers look so different to those he had at Brisbane?
With players like Redden and Giles around, no wonder we struggled to get the ball out of our defensive 50 against Port. I understand that intent is a serious concern with Jetta but would take 12 disposals from him over 12 disposals from Redden any day.

He's been playing as an inside "Redd" bull as it were. If you escort yourself over to the current Priddis thread, you will acquaint yourself with the concept that there are different expectations that apply to our inside bulls.

Checking the stats - Hutch and Redden had the same amount of possessions for the match, but Redden scored higher in the fantasy footy/dream team/what evs because of his tackle count and defensive pressure yet you want him dropped for the benefit of Hutch?

No thanks.

 

[sey666]

He's been playing as an inside "Redd" bull as it were. If you escort yourself over to the current Priddis thread, you will acquaint yourself with the concept that there are different expectations that apply to our inside bulls.

Checking the stats - Hutch and Redden had the same amount of possessions for the match, but Redden scored higher in the fantasy footy/dream team/what evs because of his tackle count and defensive pressure yet you want him dropped for the benefit of Hutch?

No thanks.

No thanks.

I didn't say Hutchings is better than Redden; if I had a choice I would keep both out. How many inside bulls do we have? Why does Redden's numbers, particularly the meters gained statistic, look so low compared to the other inside bulls?

 

[Boohemian]

No thanks.

I didn't say Hutchings is better than Redden. If I had a choice I would keep both out. How many inside bulls do we have? Why does Redden's numbers, particularly the meters gained statistic, so low compared to the other inside bulls?

Don't go down this tedious path. You distinctly said: not much difference but prefer to keep Hutchings over Redden

Why? Because Hutch gives you warm fuzzy feelings?

 

[sey666]

Don't go down this tedious path. You distinctly said: not much difference but prefer to keep Hutchings over Redden

Why? Because Hutch gives you warm fuzzy feelings?

Because Redden had 3 poor games in row to Hutchings' one poor game and we cannot drop both due to lack of options at East Perth. If Cripps or Nelson was fit I would drop both. Have a look at that meters gained table - both are slow poor players who could cost us dearly against the Bulldogs. If you don't like my changes then thats your problem - it is not like the match committee will listen to either of us.

By the way, I didn't know that people post in this thread because they have warm fuzzy feelings.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

You are seriously stretching if you think and inexperienced and under done Cole would be a better option than a fit Butler.

Bordering on delusional actually.

I didn't say he'd do better, I said I wouldn't be against bringing him in for Butler because of some of the attributes he offers that Butler does not, which would be handy in particular against the bulldogs. Definitely not as crazy of an idea as you're making it out to be, if clubs went on that logic all the time barely any kids would get played and you'd have a bunch of 22 year olds who haven't played a game.

 

[dave123]

For mine I'd play Giles

Add Duggan ...for vardy

 

[wraglesweb]

No thanks.

I didn't say Hutchings is better than Redden; if I had a choice I would keep both out. How many inside bulls do we have? Why does Redden's numbers, particularly the meters gained statistic, look so low compared to the other inside bulls?

 

[Milenko]

Duggan in for Redden (not much difference but prefer to keep Hutchings over Redden)
Jetta in for Giles
Play Mutimer in the Midfield and Jetta as a half forward.

Player|Average metres gained
\Yeo|489.3
\Gaff|460.8
\Shuey|422.0
\Mitchell|301.9
\Sheed|294.7
\Masten|261.6
\Priddiss|250.9
\Duggan|246.0
\Jetta|231.9
\Hutchings|176.6
\Mutimer|161.6
\ Redden|136.4

If you think Redden's numbers above look bad then consider this: out of all the 29 players we have used so far this season, the only players who average less than Redden in the above statistic are Vardy (117.5), Mackenzie (98.4) and Giles (93.5).
Redden's possesion numbers are very low for a senior midfielder and what this statistic suggests is that his disposals are not going too far on the rare occasions when he do get the ball. He often handballs in a hurry to a teammate who is surrounded opposition players. His kicks to Handball ratio this year is 0.63 (last year it was 0.73) - this is opposite to what is was in his time at Brisbane (for example, it was 1.10 in 2015). His average meters gained numbers are also look reasonable at Brisbane. Apparently he is fit, has played 7 games in a row and hence continuity is not an issue, so could somebody explain why the numbers look so different to those he had at Brisbane?
With players like Redden and Giles around, no wonder we struggled to get the ball out of our defensive 50 against Port. I understand that lack of intent is a serious concern with Jetta but would take 12 disposals from him over 12 disposals from Redden any day.

Your analysis is overly simplistic because he's being asked to play a different role to the one he played at Brisbane - handball more & kick less; give the ball to players who can run with it; make a lot of tackles; carry out blocks for our other mids. It's not about metres gained.

I'm fine with the role he's playing, he just needs to reduce the sloppiness of his disposal.

 

[Agent93]

Is Vardy considered a lumbering beast - Giles definitely is but thought Vardy is more agile?

If he is, he's using it to give away slightly less free kicks per game. There's been little difference between the two statistically this year, and they've both been towards the bottom in ruck comparisons league wide.

 

[EastPete]

Hutch out for Duggan. Simple. Karps in if the match committee want to drop Giles for more run. Don't know why he wasn't in last week ahead of Hutch.

Maybe the issue is not more run from us but less run from the Dogs. Tackle and don't let them get their throws out.

 

[sey666]

View attachment 368635

So only one inside bull?

 

[Agent93]

FWIW, I'd drop one of the rucks and bring in a mobile player.
<snip>
Dugg still HAS to come in if fit.

Exactly.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Looks like the AFL stats back up that Darling has been fairly average for the past couple of seasons. Joe the goose goals flatter him.

"he has never won a lower percentage of one on one contests...." That right there is a damning statistic. Particularly for a player who is supposedly in the prime of his career, never been more hungry and looking to bounce back from his poor big game performances.

 

[eaglesfan84]

View attachment 368687


Looks like the AFL stats back up that Darling has been fairly average for the past couple of seasons. Joe the goose goals flatter him.

"he has never won a lower percentage of one on one contests...." That right there is a damning statistic. Particularly for a player who is supposedly in the prime of his career, never been more hungry and looking to bounce back from his poor big game performances.

With natanui and lycett returns pending later on would you think Vardy has shown enough in his forward minutes to replace Darling?

 

[mick06]

View attachment 368687


Looks like the AFL stats back up that Darling has been fairly average for the past couple of seasons. Joe the goose goals flatter him.

"he has never won a lower percentage of one on one contests...." That right there is a damning statistic. Particularly for a player who is supposedly in the prime of his career, never been more hungry and looking to bounce back from his poor big game performances.

Not only is he not winning them, he isnt even halving them. Getting outbodied and outmarked by fair to average opponents...

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

We don't need 2 rucks this week . We need our best tap ruck and a pinch hitter

who is our best tap ruck ?

Giles

Who can pinch hit ?

Vardy - 2nd best ruck but probably behind mcinnis and lamb as a forward

Gov - No too good in defence

Darling - it's an option but leaves us I key forward down .

mcinnes - Better forward than vardy , better ruck than darling . But is lumbering and not that athletic .

Lamb - Can be 2nd key forward when darling rucks and has a big tank . Can also go missing in wafl . I would expect him to put in more effort at afl level

Emac or schofield - don't offer more than vardy and we don't need 3 talls in the back line this week .

I would be inclined to give lamb a crack this week and use darling to pinch hit . Lamb is probably our best runner who could come in and play a role forward .
Use him running up to the wings on long searching leads instead of darling and closer to goals when darling is Rucking

 

[RookiePick]

Hackdorn keen on us resting Vardy and bringing in a runner.

Take a good look at yourselves gents.

 

[FatPizza]

Hackdorn keen on us resting Vardy and bringing in a runner.

Take a good look at yourselves gents.

I only put credence in whatever Brad Hardie has to say. Everything else is just noise.

 

[sey666]

Your analysis is overly simplistic because he's being asked to play a different role to the one he played at Brisbane - handball more & kick less; give the ball to players who can run with it; make a lot of tackles; carry out blocks for our other mids. It's not about metres gained.

I'm fine with the role he's playing, he just needs to reduce the sloppiness of his disposal.

Redden is behind Priddis and Shuey (who I assume is one of those players who run with it) in tackles this year. Plus his tackle average is only 0.8 higher than that of Cripps. You say he plays a different role with us and was asked to lay more tackles, then how come he averages less tackles per game with us than he did at Brisbane? One per enters, contested possessions... are all lower than what they were at Brisbane.
It is all good if you think my analysis was too simplistic. However, I would be very interested to know why you think he is doing his job because none of the statistics back what you are claiming.
It is not all about the meters gained but the problem is the only guys average below him on that statistic are the 2 ruckman and a defender who cannot even find a place in the team.

 

[Milenko]

Redden is behind Priddis and Shuey (who I assume is one of those players who run with it) in tackles this year. Plus his tackle average is only 0.8 higher than that of Cripps. You say he plays a different role with us and was asked to lay more tackles, then how come he averages less tackles per game with us than he did at Brisbane? One per enters, contested possessions... are all lower than what they were at Brisbane.
It is all good if you think my analysis was too simplistic. However, I would be very interested to know why you think he is doing his job because none of the statistics back what you are claiming.
It is not all about the meters gained but the problem is the only guys average below him on that statistic are the 2 ruckman and a defender who cannot even find a place in the team.

We win significantly more games than Brisbane did; control the pill more and therefore there are less tackles to be had.

 

[Feeling Groovy]

We win significantly more games than Brisbane did; control the pill more and therefore there are less tackles to be had.

And we don't tackle. We corral and fling one arm out in a loose approximation of a tackle more appropriate to touch football. But carry on...

 

[PRANKSTER666]

So when Petrie returns does he slot straight back in as the R/F alongside Giles/Vardy?

Nobody is playing two lumbering rucks at the moment, let alone two shit ones.