Preview Changes V Essendon

[CBSlogger]

Our mid talls should be licking their lips with Kondogiannis, Johnson, McGrath and Roberts as their small/mid sized backs.

I'd say Farrow on debut will come in for Redman making them even less experienced.

Yep big miss for PC and / or CZ if at least one of them doesn't go big this week.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Our odds look short. Do the bookies know something that we don't?

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Bookies probably don't care very much about 10-year head-to-head losing streaks.

Reckon its heavily weighted by recency bias. They saw us beat Port by 46 and then saw Essendon lose to them by 63.
We've won 2 of our last five games. Essendon have lost all five.

Works out to be 65% likelihood North wins, which is extraordinary given the history.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Bookies probably don't care very much about 10-year head-to-head losing streaks.

Reckon its heavily weighted by recency bias. They saw us beat Port by 46 and then saw Essendon lose to them by 63.
We've won 2 of our last five games. Essendon have lost all five.

Works out to be 65% likelihood North wins, which is extraordinary given the history.

I don't reckon they're putting enough weight on us coming back from Perth after playing in 30+ degrees, and one less day to prepare. Plus the fact that * will be going all out this week to win. They might put out a less talented team than us, but it won't matter if they are hungrier and bring more effort.

 

[Possession]

I don't reckon they're putting enough weight on us coming back from Perth after playing in 30+ degrees, and one less day to prepare. Plus the fact that * will be going all out this week to win. They might put out a less talented team than us, but it won't matter if they are hungrier and bring more effort.

I mean, if we aren't going all out to win this week too then just fold the club up. Sick of sides coming out breathing fire against us because of outside noise. When is it our turn to do that? We've had a pretty shit week too.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I don't reckon they're putting enough weight on us coming back from Perth after playing in 30+ degrees, and one less day to prepare. Plus the fact that * will be going all out this week to win. They might put out a less talented team than us, but it won't matter if they are hungrier and bring more effort.

Its round 3 and we're talking about professional athletes. They haven't played enough footy this year to have cumulative fatigue after a six day turnaround yet.

Has Brad Scott done anything lately to suggest he's capable of lighting up his playing group?

Having said that, yes the odds seem short in context. Not short enough for me to have a wager on a North loss tho.

 

[zoomba23]

Don’t remember the last time I’ve read a game preview thread with this many ultimatums!

Weirdly, I thought the standard of last weeks game was ok. Yes Clarko didn’t do enough, and there were too many passengers on field. But WC played a much better game than I expected, and even if you were skeptical of our chances from the outset, I think it’s fair to say they were better than you’d expect from a multi year woodenspooner.

Having said that, have to admit, something kinda changed for me in the middle of that game. Where for years prior I’d found myself angry at our unforced skill errors, shitty tackles, and Clarko’s poor attempts at magnet re-arranging (Simpkin back in the middle? What?) this time I found myself laughing, like I was watching some tragicomedy.

Fool that I am, I believe we’re gonna win this. But it’ll be by an unconvincing margin. And the new tragicomic development will be that while a loss might have triggered generational renewal of our coaching staff, and real cause for hope to a long suffering supporter base, a few slender wins against our fellow cellar dwellers just prolongs our voluntary suffering. And so we’ll be back here next week. And the week after. Just for recreations sake, to pass the time away, apparently.

I'll paint you the scene. We start off ok. We get to half time a goal up on them in a thoroughly unremarkable contest. Nerves are already fraying amongst the idiots stupid enough to turn up (for both teams), of which I am one.

The third quarter starts off goal for goal.
But as it wears on, those in blue and white notice a familiar sight; too many of our players are hanging goalside at contests, both marking and stoppage, and aren't able/aren't willing to get back to cover when they win the ball. Merrett and Durham both start to carve us up. Durham is untackle-able because none of LDU, Sheezel, Powell and FOS know how to tackle properly. Merrett is pushing back to the half back flank, kickstarting chains and then running past six of our blokes to receive for the final kick inside 50.

Xerri, having gotten away with his tendency to take the ball out of the ruck so far, does so for the twelfth time and is pinged, or alternatively, coughs up the handball. Non descript Essendon campaigner #38284 takes advantage and laces it out to TwomeidaPeader. Buoyed by our strange methods of self sabotage, their entire team starts to run. Both ways. We can stop this mob, they think to themselves. And their crowd starts to respond. Caddy, matched up on Comben, takes a hanger and nails his fourth. Kako follows with his third shortly after, roving a contest where all of our blokes went up and spoiled each other. He pumps the crowd up.

Suddenly we're three goals down, staring down the barrel of a defeat, and with an Essendon crowd woken up from its usual meme-y, Bronx cheer-filled slumber.

Try as we might, we can't bridge the gap in the final quarter courtesy of the fact that we're ****ing rubbish. Kerridge specialist Archie Perkins kicks the goal to get them out by 14 after a Simpkin clanger; we kick one more in the final minute but it's meaningless.

Final siren: Essendon by eight points; media talking points are that Essendon aren't completely broken, while we are.

This is such a thoroughly plausible scenario that it hurt to even write. We shouldn't be short odds against anyone. We shouldn't even be short odds against VFL teams. We play football like we don't expect opposition resistance. If Essendon spot that and react accordingly, we're toast

 

[tazaa]

In the early 90s we hadn’t beaten the hawks for a long time - then when we did beat them , it was a 100 pt smashing.
I want that this weekend - I want them crying at quartertime

To have a record breaking night would be amazing.
The reality is based on lists and where each club is at in terms of development and profile - we shouldn’t be losing to Essendon again any time soon.

That is an unbiased view.

Time will tell.

 

[tazaa]

I'll paint you the scene. We start off ok. We get to half time a goal up on them in a thoroughly unremarkable contest. Nerves are already fraying amongst the idiots stupid enough to turn up (for both teams), of which I am one.

The third quarter starts off goal for goal.
But as it wears on, those in blue and white notice a familiar sight; too many of our players are hanging goalside at contests, both marking and stoppage, and aren't able/aren't willing to get back to cover when they win the ball. Merrett and Durham both start to carve us up. Durham is untackle-able because none of LDU, Sheezel, Powell and FOS know how to tackle properly. Merrett is pushing back to the half back flank, kickstarting chains and then running past six of our blokes to receive for the final kick inside 50. Xerri, having gotten away with his tendency to take the ball out of the ruck so far, does so for the twelfth time and is pinged, or alternatively, coughs up the handball. Non descript Essendon campaigner #38284 takes advantage and laces it out to TwomeidaPeader. Buoyed by our strange methods of self sabotage, their entire team starts to run. Both ways. We can stop this mob, they think to themselves. And their crowd starts to respond. Caddy, matched up on Comben, takes a hanger and nails his fourth. Kako follows with his third shortly after, roving a contest where all of our blokes went up and spoiled each other. He pumps the crowd up. Suddenly we're three goals down, staring down the barrel of a defeat, and with an Essendon crowd woken up from its usual meme-y, Bronx cheer-filled slumber.

Try as we might, we can't bridge the gap in the final quarter courtesy of the fact that we're ****ing rubbish. Kerridge specialist Archie Perkins kicks the goal to get them out by 14 after a Simpkin clanger; we kick one more in the final minute but it's meaningless.

Final siren: Essendon by eight points; media talking points are that Essendon aren't completely broken, while we are.

This is such a thoroughly plausible scenario that it hurt to even write. We shouldn't be short odds against anyone. We shouldn't even be short odds against VFL teams. We play football like we don't expect opposition resistance. If Essendon spot that and react accordingly, we're toast

It’s the same ****ing movie on repeat Z

Same cast.
Same script.
Same ending.
Same outcome.

I've done my best to make sense of it all, but in reality it’s our desperation to towel them up that is actually our Achilles heel.

And it is why team selection is so vital this week. Simpkin and McDonald are not great match ups for this mob. Neither is Corr. Kostanty too.

Bring in kids who can run, who can tackle and who can kick and you’ll be able to systematically break them down through sheer perseverance.

But when you have players who turn it over under no pressure and make mistakes consistently - that’s when they’re able to thrive.

The Dogs play them round 4 and they will systematically take them apart and destroy them from the first bounce.
We’re capable of doing the same but it’s all in our heads.

 

[goalieboy82]

the following announcement comes from heaven....
Saint Coach Emeritus Scamper (my little geelong cat saint)

who meows the following....

 

[Sheezel2Wardlaw]

Out: JK (vfl footballer), Logue (inj.), Blamiers (rest) Zurhaar (0 tackles)

In: Dawson, Wardlaw, Spargo, Hardeman

McDonald Dawson Hardeman
Parker Pink Comben
Simpkin Ldu Stephens
Spargo Trembath Sheezel
Curtis Larkey Duursma
Xerri Wardlaw Fos
Daniel Powell McKercher Darling Dovaston

Dawson to Wright
McDonald to Kako
Comben to Caddy
Pink to Langford
Fos to Merrett

Darling & Duursma to play 3rd tall forward. Trembath plays back up ruck to Xerri.

Sheezel, Ldu, Wardlaw, Fos & Powell swapping on ball.

Spargo, Dovaston & Daniel rotating thru half forward.

McKercher rotating with Parker & Hardeman.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Its round 3 and we're talking about professional athletes. They haven't played enough footy this year to have cumulative fatigue after a six day turnaround yet.

Has Brad Scott done anything lately to suggest he's capable of lighting up his playing group?

The talk this week is that the "lighting up" has been player driven.

 

[TheKanga]

Our odds look short. Do the bookies know something that we don't?

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I thought the same
I feel its more 50/50

They offering 2.63 for Essendon, probaly for something they know.

 

[Gasometer]

North by 10 goals in a canter

This thread fair dinkum…the sky is falling…