Prediction Changes v WCE elimination final

[PSP18]

Pretty pumped now. Haven't been too nervous during the bye but the time has come. **** I hope we give a good showing.

I've got that nervous stomach-churn too; it gets me every finals series.

That belies the fact that I give us a 5-10% of winning (a feeling based on evidence and history - I'd love to be more bullish). It's like getting nervy about a long-shot job interview. It shouldn't happen but here I am, playing the match out in my head, anxiety rising.

I'm caught between daring to dream and getting my hopes up only to be burned by footy once more...

 

[ExRoyboy]

I'm not really nervous at all about this one. I think we are only a slight chance of winning and while you can't say we have nothing to lose, because our season is over if we do, it would be a massive boilover if we got up, sort of like beating Sydney in Sydney, which coincidentally we manage to have done the past two seasons.

West Coast in Perth is about as hard as it gets for us and history suggests we will get beaten reasonably easy. Therefore because expectations are low, so are the nerves. I think we will give a pretty good show of ourselves though, much like we did down at Geelong, and if we take advantage of our opportunities and convert rather than miss, we will run them very close and may even get up in a tight one.

 

[stefoid]

This team has surprised positively more than negatively since Bev took over.

 

[TMoney22]

So if we are about 30pts down at half time, and only scored a few goals. What do we do to turn it around??

the reason I ask is i'm interested in our Plan C and D. Surely there is a plan where we are down in the second half and finding it difficult to score. which has happened a few times this year, do we just role the plan A or Plan B or make some crazy moves and see what happens.

I've been wanting JJ to play mid forward in a Daniel Wells role for a while now, this would be a perfect time to try if everything else fails.

And Stringer lose in Defence to burst the ball out. JJ blazing forward to receive it... UNLEASH THE JJ

what others?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

The five ins are huge, gives us a chance. Happy with the outs. Would have liked to see McLean named though. Would have liked Campbell in for Cordy too but I can understand why we wouldn't take the risk.

Very happy to see Jetta out, he was brilliant in the first half against Adelaide. Looked to be finally hitting some form. Brown is a strange replacement.

Looking forward to the game. Need our midfield to be on fire, dominate like they did when we met in round 11. Since Sheed has come back their midfield has functioned a lot better. Gaff seems to be involved in more centre clearances and he's putting up huge numbers. Wouldn't be disappointed if we played Macrae and Libba in the roles they did against Geelong.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Redpath was quite aggressive against them last time. Really brutal in marking/punching heads contests. Toydy should consult with him because it was effective.

 

[Zgope1]

agree with those that believe Mclean would've been nice, but i suppose the theory there is that with Lib and Jack underdone there will be genuine weight to be lifted for Clay and Jong in the guts to chop them out. The even inside mid spread of Clay, Jong, Dahl, Libba, Bont, Dunkley, Picken and Macrae is unrivalled in the AFL, and we should have the ruck advantage too. So if you go off "we can't win if we don't beat them around the ball" then this was what we had to do.

Also it's much easier to stomach the Libba, Macrae inclusions when you ask yourself- 100% Hrovat or 95% Libba? and let's be honest about Koby, has he even been 100% this year?

Defensively, Wood gives you all the good bits (aerial defence, long kicking) that Roberts gives but he's more mobile, better in ground ball defence, a leader. So fine with that. We also have back up plans for if the height issues come along. 1. Switch Morris, Wood and Hamling around 2. switch Cordy and Hamling 3. put Rough back and get Cordy and Boyd to ruck. We've literally tried all of these this year so all are in play.

All in all, it's fun to get excited, its been nice that we'll in finals, i bloody hope we'll win, but i just enjoy that we're in finals and i'll enjoy tomorrow as much as possible

 

[Dav1d]

Yeah I'm not sure that I get the Brown inclusion, our forward line has not been as potent this year. I'd have probably included another midfielder to help out Priddis, our midfielders need to all perform if we are to pull of the upset.

 

[Zgope1]

Yeah I'm not sure that I get the Brown inclusion, our forward line has not been as potent this year. I'd have probably included another midfielder to help out Priddis, our midfielders need to all perform if we are to pull of the upset.

i reckon they'll try and stretch us at some point (putting mcgov forward) but we can just put his opponent back on him or Rough so not that big a deal. Stringer would love playing against a backline with no Mcgov

 

[JTCWBFC]

The eagles won't beat us by just taking huge pack marks all day. They will beat us with quick ball movement and getting us on the rebound, so it doesn't really matter who they play forward.

Anything that gets McGovern out of the back line is a win for us.

 

[Zgope1]

tactics wise i'd have liked Campbell for Cordy, but if he aint cherry ripe i'll cop Zaine. What we know about the kid is he'll do his role, and if that's to make sure mcgov doesn't mark a ball all night i will be excited to see how he goes. The kids is a nutcase and it's great he gets to play a final

 

[the dog's kennel]

We better not blow another final with poor goalkicking. Surely we've learned that lesson by now.

Yeah, watching all the footy shows talking about what we need to do to win - there's all the usual obvious comments like "win contested ball, quieten Kennedy" etc.

For me it comes down to one factor - kick straight. If we kick 14.4 rather than 4.14 we'll be a real shot. I'm amazed how few commentators have noticed how diabolical our goalkicking is. It costs us at least 3-4 goals compared to our opposition every week.

Unfortunately it's easier said than done.

 

[Dogs Rule]

We choked in front of the whole country last year (GF ) & against Adelaide earlier in the year in front of the home crowd!! So hopefully they have exorcised those horrors with the recent Hawks & Crows wins. Still all the pressure, but we start over again with the finals. Eagles also owe Bullies one from R11 this year, payback time!

To be fair, don't think anyone gives a stuff about our Round 11 win, even us. Game on!

 

[Golden_6]

I know he's not ready to really hold down either spot completely, but Zaine really gives us some flexibility if a change does need to be made down back for some extra height.

 

[doggies ftw]

Holy s**t it's mother*in game day. Wayyyy too excited, gonna achieve two fifths of * all at work today.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Holy s**t it's mother****in game day. Wayyyy too excited, gonna achieve two fifths of **** all at work today.

I was just dreading the amount of work I have to get through today for this very reason

 

[House_of_Dahl]

the reason I ask is i'm interested in our Plan C and D. Surely there is a plan where we are down in the second half and finding it difficult to score. which has happened a few times this year, do we just role the plan A or Plan B or make some crazy moves and see what happens.

I've been wanting JJ to play mid forward in a Daniel Wells role for a while now, this would be a perfect time to try if everything else fails.

And Stringer lose in Defence to burst the ball out. JJ blazing forward to receive it... UNLEASH THE JJ

what others?

I reckon if we are down by a big margin we'll run and gun and play on. Risk losing by a bigger margin but at least gives a chance. No point shutting up shop and losing by a respectable margin. Hopefully we won't find out though!

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Yeah I'm not sure that I get the Brown inclusion, our forward line has not been as potent this year. I'd have probably included another midfielder to help out Priddis, our midfielders need to all perform if we are to pull of the upset.

Tim Gossage said on SEN this morning that the expectation is that Lycett withdraws before tonight because his PCL injury is worse than first thought. Brown comes in to share ruckwork with Giles.

 

[Rookie]

And you weren't going to if Roberts played

Would have had the nightmare regardless. I just think that despite his limitations, Roberts would have been the best matchup on our list. Never mind, in Morris and Bev we trust!

Pumped for this game. 11 hours to go!

 

[Royale]

Would have had the nightmare regardless. I just think that despite his limitations, Roberts would have been the best matchup on our list. Never mind, in Morris and Bev we trust!

Pumped for this game. 11 hours to go!

Forget the Roberts omission people.


His omission if more for team structure than it is anything else.


I keep referring people to the make up of our team in the early part of the season before the injuries hit. 2 key backs in Adams and Morris only. 1 key forward in Toyd rotating with Roughy. We monstered teams.


We have been compromising ever since Hawthorn but I can tell you now the team as named is a team centered on our BEST FOOTBALL.


Not a compromise. Win the ball. Keep possession. Run hard. Pierce their defence. We have recently started losing the contested ball and uncontested ball count. If we are going to be any chance we have to be a positive in these areas. Because our forward line efficiency is simply not up to snuff to play any other way.


Bevo is backing in Jong, Smith, Dahlhaus, Bonti, Libba, Picken and Macrae to win the ball. I don’t know about you guys, but that’s a damn good contested ball brigade. If we win the ball then we don’t have to worry about the Eagles forward line. They wont have it. It’s that simple and that’s as complex as our game plan needs to be.


With all that said we are still one of the better defensive sides in the competition with gut running both ways should the ball get out. Trust the system.


Win the ball, quick hands, and feed it to our outside runners underpinned by an offensive backline. Here we see the Roberts omission come into play. He’s a stopper. We need aggression and rebound off half back. We simply could not carry 3 key backs in Hamling/Morris & Roberts. One guy standing on the backline does nothing for us up the ground where we have a lack of forward line firepower. One of them had to make way for Wood who’s no slouch defensively, in the air and rebounding.


Bevo is rolling the dice in favour of our best football. To compromise again would just see a repeat of our previous few games. Low scoring, static ball movement. Doomed to fail anyway.

 

[BrunswickDog]

Cordy to play a defensive role on McGovern. Could there be a better match-up?

The kpf who naturally spoils the high ball v the kpd who likes to mark it.

Now for cordy to get a goal or two.........

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

So if Campbell didn't fly over yesterday and didn't fly with the team today, when did / will he go? He's been named as an emergency. I'm sure he was picked as cover for Roughy or Boyd, but surely he can't fly over tomorrow if Roughy/ Boyd don't come up after training tonight??

I would assume that he has actually travelled and the media got it wrong.

 

[compact72]

I would assume that he has actually travelled and the media got it wrong.

Media wrong? No chance