Preview Changes versus Swans

[bigbulldog67]

I have been concerned about Freijahs form this season. Not calling for him to be dropped. In my inexpert opinion I think the drop in form is due to him being asked to do a number of roles this season. My solution- play him at HBF for a run of games and he will find his form. Do others think he is significantly down on form (like West currently is imo( just a random drive by by me)) and that an extended run in the back is the answer?

I agree but maybe not the week if we’re underdone in the midfield, did Freijah go back to half back second half last week? I noticed him a lot more down there but to be honest my will to live was pretty low and can’t say I was watching intently

 

[SONSOFEMPIRE]

hearing lachie smith to debut this thursday

 

[bigbulldog67]

Making things up again.

Beveridge said a few who are sore will still play as long as they cannot injured themselves further... which many play sore all the time.

I think it is more likely Bont, Richards and Lobb all play.

English seems like just pain and he appears to be annoying Beveridge alittle with it as someone posted last week

Making things up like when I said English was no chance last week?

You do realise I’m relaying an opinion based on my own eyes, I don’t care what’s been ‘reported’ or what Bev said in a presser like that’s gospel. I’m literally saying what I’m seeing = Bont looks severely hampered, if he’s plays he will be underdone.

you’re the one making calls based on nothing, Bevos angry at English because he’s not playing through pain lol wtf are you talking about.

You need to leave your mums basement and touch grass Doggy, seriously weird unit. Log off for a bit mate, or I suppose it’s healthy whinging about the injustices of the afl day after day online!

 

[Werewolf]

English is not available - he would be handy

O'Donnell not available either. Coffield in? VDM can replace Davidson who's been struggling too.

 

[Anja_Nees]

hearing lachie smith to debut this thursday

As a lockdown defender.

 

[Dog 36]

Which seems to be annoying Beveridge given others are playing through pain

I may have missed something on this because that's a huge call.

 

[SONSOFEMPIRE]

As a lockdown defender.

To that I'm not sure but I would say as a ruck.

 

[Doggy]

Making things up like when I said English was no chance last week?

You do realise I’m relaying an opinion based on my own eyes, I don’t care what’s been ‘reported’ or what Bev said in a presser like that’s gospel. I’m literally saying what I’m seeing = Bont looks severely hampered, if he’s plays he will be underdone.

you’re the one making calls based on nothing, Bevos angry at English because he’s not playing through pain lol wtf are you talking about.

You need to leave your mums basement and touch grass Doggy, seriously weird unit. Log off for a bit mate, or I suppose it’s healthy whinging about the injustices of the afl day after day online!

You’re missing the nuance on English. This isn’t about risk of further injury, it’s pain tolerance. Plenty of players carry things and still get up — only the player can make that call.

And if you actually listen to Beveridge over the past couple of weeks, the tone hasn’t just been “unlucky he’s unavailable.” It’s been sharper than that — he doesn’t sound thrilled full stop.

You’re happy to infer things from what you see on field, but somehow I can’t take cues from what the coach is saying publicly? Doesn’t really stack up.

Bont looks hampered but likely plays. English is clearly under the microscope. Pretty reasonable reads.

And getting personal after five minutes on BigFooty usually means you’ve got nothing left, champ.

 

[bigbulldog67]

You’re missing the nuance on English. This isn’t about risk of further injury, it’s pain tolerance. Plenty of players carry things and still get up — only the player can make that call.

And if you actually listen to Beveridge over the past couple of weeks, the tone hasn’t just been “unlucky he’s unavailable.” It’s been sharper than that — he doesn’t sound thrilled full stop.

You’re happy to infer things from what you see on field, but somehow I can’t take cues from what the coach is saying publicly? Doesn’t really stack up.

Bont looks hampered but likely plays. English is clearly under the microscope. Pretty reasonable reads.

And getting personal after five minutes on BigFooty usually means you’ve got nothing left, champ.

Yeah you really got me, champ, why would I trust my eyes when I can trust Doggy’s expert medical, detective & body language skills.

What the **** do you know about English’s pain tolerance and risk of further injury. Absolute nonsense.

You can infer whatever you like I really don’t give a ****, I usually skim past your dribble pretty quickly but just find it funny to call me out as making things up for sharing my literal views, when what I said last week was correct anyway

 

[Doggy]

Yeah you really got me, champ, why would I trust my eyes when I can trust Doggy’s expert medical, detective & body language skills.

What the **** do you know about English’s pain tolerance and risk of further injury. Absolute nonsense.

You can infer whatever you like I really don’t give a ****, I usually skim past your dribble pretty quickly but just find it funny to call me out as making things up for sharing my literal views, when what I said last week was correct anyway

No one’s claiming to know his exact pain tolerance — that’s literally the point. Only the player knows.

You’re happy to “trust your eyes” and make calls off that, but the second someone reads into a coach’s tone it’s “nonsense”? Can’t have it both ways.

Beveridge has been clearly frustrated over the past couple of weeks — that’s there for anyone to see. Whether you choose to ignore it is up to you.

And again, I’ve said Bont probably plays and English is under the microscope. Pretty balanced takes — you’re the one getting worked up about it.

Calling it “absolute nonsense” doesn’t make it so — it just makes you look like a peanut.

 

[bigbulldog67]

No one’s claiming to know his exact pain tolerance — that’s literally the point. Only the player knows.

You’re happy to “trust your eyes” and make calls off that, but the second someone reads into a coach’s tone it’s “nonsense”? Can’t have it both ways.

Beveridge has been clearly frustrated over the past couple of weeks — that’s there for anyone to see. Whether you choose to ignore it is up to you.

And again, I’ve said Bont probably plays and English is under the microscope. Pretty balanced takes — you’re the one getting worked up about it.

Calling it “absolute nonsense” doesn’t make it so — it just makes you look like a peanut.

Hilarious that you use ChatGPT for your replies

 

[Doggy]

Hilarious that you use ChatGPT for your replies

You “skim past” my posts but keep replying and editing your comments after the fact. Pick one.

I’ve made a pretty basic point on Bont and English and you’ve spent three replies dodging it and having a crack instead.
And using hyphens doesn’t make it AI, peanut.

If you want to talk footy, go for it. If not, stop carrying on like an old porkchop.

 

[bigbulldog67]

There is far too much hysteria
We can field a side entirely capable of winning if we can work thru Sydney’s press and cause the odd turnover in our forward 50.
The way we be been using Darcy has is a complete BS mess

Out: Emmett, Lewis, Darcy, Liberatore
In: Buslinger, Treloar, Dolan, English

We are stronger with those changes. Lobb and English wax Ruck/Forward.
Move Williams as a key back and what we loose in height we gain in run and evasiveness - should help us get thru Sydney press.

The game is entirely winnable. But the idiot running this team and I mean idiot must stop playing suburban level players like Lewis and Mc Neil. And even worse traumatizing a young talent like Emmett to be rag dolled and thoroughly crushed by man mountains such as Meek and Grundy. It’s an disgrace - akin to Carlton playing Elijah Hollands.

Play your best available list -

Your changes look okay but missing JOD who’s our best defender, but the issue is the team we’re putting out is still beat up. Last week Richards could barely run and Naughton is playing with one hand taped, both still in rehab. Lobb sounds like he will probably play but is still in rehab and Bont limited too, if he plays. Croft strapped too but should be okay hopefully

So it’s a little bit worse than you’re making out with the ins & outs on paper. We’ll believe we can win and we do our best work in these situations but damn it’s pretty grim

Going to take an all time performance if we can pull it off

 

[Mutt]

Enough bickering on here folks. It's tedious and pisses everyone else off no end. Not a suggestion...stop it or take a holiday.

 

[Anja_Nees]

To that I'm not sure but I would say as a ruck.

I was being facetious.

 

[BigFloppa]

We could field the youngest team in history this week to honour the 2016 side who was the youngest to ever win a flag

 

[BigFloppa]

If Swannies drop this they will be the laughing stock of the AFL

 

[BrisDog]

hearing lachie smith to debut this thursday

That’s a good in. It gives Grundy someone to throw around who is at least 100kgs.

 

[Golden_6]

hearing lachie smith to debut this thursday

I know we don’t really have much of choice but poor guy having to debut against Grundy with no real support.

Poor guy.

 

[bresker]

We should bring some extra guernseys, just in case we need to ask a couple of Swans players to swap over to us to make a full team. Better than forfeiting.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Guessing Bevo wasn't happy with Lewis, especially messing up that goal with a dumb handball, and is choosing to go with a Smith/Emmett combo with Emmett spending more time up forward.

So far we've really own seen Emmett in the ruck so it's worth a look. Lets Croft stay forward permanently as well to help with Darcy's absence (plus Croft's shoulder looks cooked so stops him reaching for the ball in hitouts)

 

[BrisDog]

We could field the youngest team in history this week to honour the 2016 side who was the youngest to ever win a flag

Even if we get flogged we will have the lowest average age and lowest average AFL games, so we can justify getting trounced.

 

[mookieb]

Interestingly, this is by far the biggest difference between statistical model tipping, and bookmakers (which obviously lead on statistical modelling to set markets anyway). Generally, for all matches, they would not be more than a handful of points different.

Statistical models have us as a 5-point favourite, we are 27-point underdogs by the bookmakers. And this 32 point difference is more than any other game since 2020 - 5 more points than any difference. Ironically, despite this being considered for all 800+ games since the year 2020, the 2nd ranked was also us, three games ago, against Essendon. In that instance, the bookmakers thought we should win by 74 points. The statistical models thought we should only win by 49 points. The models got it more right that game. Will they get it more right this one?

Generally, but not always, the bookmakers get it right. Indeed, the "not always" allows for professional gamblers to exist. And no doubt plenty of statistical model-driven punters will be backing us this week. Facing up against the mug punter who has seen our injuries and reacting to our form and is backing Sydney.

The mug punters got it wrong vs. Essendon. They assumed we were flying high, and Essendon weren't. Games since have proved that wrong. Though tbf, maybe the mug punters would have been right if it wasn't for in-game injuries and the luck of our own inaccurate goalkicking in the 3rd quarter.

Statistical models would consider, for instance, that the Swans' win last week too was not actually all that impressive, because GWS with all their injuries are not that good. We beat them ourselves by 15 goals with similar injuries after all.

In any case, if the mug punters are getting it right this game, it will be because the statistical models fail to consider:

• Bont, Naughton, Richards and Trelaor are will not play at full fitness
• That our expected inclusions are simply worse players than the statistical models suggest
• Maybe our home ground advantage is not as strong with a big Sydney and small Dogs attendance
• That the multiplicative effect of losing injuries is hard to model when statisical model player ratings systems tend to rate player ins and outs on a linear scale. Punters get this right. Losing both Lobb (potentially) and O'Donnell, with Budarick already out, is worse than any individual player.
• That we should be more responsive to massive changes in form.

On the other hand the statistical models got it right vs. Essendon. Their accuracy is this defensible

• We tend to overreact far too much to the most recent results when we have a body of evidence over more games of the players and teams involved, and we typically over-subscribe the impact of things like "player fitness". Bontempelli, Trelaor, Richards and Naughton might not be fully fit, but what does that actually mean? They'll still be good. Naugthon wasn't fit vs. Geelong, but still kicked 3 goals.

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I bet a lot on lines and I was having this discussion. The stat models love WB. They rated them very highly last year as well when they were smashing weak teams and losing badly to top 8 teams.

Another guy uses a different model than me and has been backing them in last couple of weeks. Likes them this week because of "system" instead of players. I'm on Syd and this looks an absolute horror spot for you guys. 3 games with 6 day breaks in a row with young or banged up players. I would argue you have no system with 2 key backs likely out, no ruckman and now missing your key forward.

Libba missing and even if Bont plays it's likely he's hampered and probably get the Jordon blanket anyway.

I think the stat only models have their advantages but in cases like this they are simply too slow to react.

 

[lachy]

I know we don’t really have much of choice but poor guy having to debut against Grundy with no real support.

Poor guy.

An opportunity to step up and see where he stands in regards to being an AFL ruck. Certainly a better option than throwing a player in their first season in to ruck

 

[Doggies7]

Guessing Bevo wasn't happy with Lewis, especially messing up that goal with a dumb handball, and is choosing to go with a Smith/Emmett combo with Emmett spending more time up forward.

So far we've really own seen Emmett in the ruck so it's worth a look. Lets Croft stay forward permanently as well to help with Darcy's absence (plus Croft's shoulder looks cooked so stops him reaching for the ball in hitouts)

Doesn't really line up with what he said post game, but we'll see tomorrow I guess.