Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[PAFC66]

Despite the horror show that is Sam Gray. There's enough quality in there to get the job done. I want to see Westhoff permanently forward.

 

[chachi11]

Didn't Ken do this a few years back against Brisbane dropping Butch for S Gray?

S Gray 3 on 1 deep in the forward line coming up.
#sackhinkley

 

[Duckimus Prime]

The other was exactly the same situation selecting for a game against exactly the same opponent 5 years ago. We have a poor game not well suited to key forwards, we've got a blue chip KPF who has a quiet game because of that, and we drop them for Sam Gray against Brisbane.

Jon Butcher was a blue chip KPF in 2014? And the previous game against North was at Etihad with the roof closed, not well suited to key forwards? Butch took 6 marks (only Hartlett with 7 and Westhoff with 10 had more) and kicked 1 point from his 7 kicks.

I just don't think it's a big deal. Marshall has been average in both his games - if he was going alright he would still be in the team. Like, in that play with Butters to Drew to Duursma to Motlop, he decided to run exactly the same pattern as Motlop did instead of drawing his defender away from the goal square.

There's the even better one in the second quarter where he ran out and spoiled Ryder. Along with dropping the soda from Ryder in the third, its about the only impact he had on the match.

 

[Gryllis]

I'd say unbelievable, except at Round 3 dropping a tall forward for a small is classic Ken, so it's very believable, and actually expected.

Clearly a lot of faith that Ebert can consistently be a Dusty/Danger to the square big midfielder out of full forward type. Better than Sam Gray in that role I suppose. So long as Hoff is almost entirely forward and we get more out of Ryder this week, we can get away with an extra small in conditions that suit. Lot of "ifs" though. Hoff will play forward more than his 2018 role, but I don't think it'll be in the vicinity of 90% of his time on the ground. Our already dysfunctional forwardline will lose whatever structure is left when he's on the wing, despite the good he can do there.

 

[David Puddy]

I'd say unbelievable, except at Round 3 dropping a tall forward for a small is classic Ken, so it's very believable, and actually expected.

Clearly a lot of faith that Ebert can consistently be a Dusty/Danger to the square big midfielder out of full forward type. Better than Sam Gray in that role I suppose. So long as Hoff is almost entirely forward and we get more out of Ryder this week, we can get away with an extra small in conditions that suit. Lot of "ifs" though. Hoff will play forward more than his 2018 role, but I don't think it'll be in the vicinity of 90% of his time on the ground. Our already dysfunctional forwardline will lose whatever structure is left when he's on the wing, despite the good he can do there.

Expect another 10-12 disposal, 0 goal performance but to somehow manage to stay in the side until about round 20.

 

[snozulu]

Sorry if already posted. Lincoln McCarthy 50 50 for game due to rib injury.

 

[RustyCage]

Came for the melts. Wasn’t disappointed

 

[Boxx]

Let’s be honest, Todd has been arse and deserves to be dropped.

I get that people want to carry him for future purposes, but right now he is not in our best 22.
He has offered nothing in the air inside 50, so really we don’t lose much with him out.

The argument that Gray isn’t the future shits me... he is better right now than any of the other options and we are trying to win this game - this week!

We are 2-0 FFS, not 0-2!

If Sam comes in and has his stock standard 20 with 2/3 goals - i will be rapt... in all likelihood, he has one out of the bag - which he often does against Brisbane.

His best footy has always been working all day up and down the wing - which is something we actually need with Amon out!

 

[Duck Farmer]

When three-quarters of last weekend's SANFL highlights video featured Sam Gray, I knew we were being prepared for this.

Any chance you can insert yourself in the middle of our post-game analysis workflow and photoshop out all vision of Sam Gray from the highlight reels?

It would be an opportunity to use your powers for good instead of evil.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Let’s be honest, Todd has been arse and deserves to be dropped.

I get that people want to carry him for future purposes, but right now he is not in our best 22.
He has offered nothing in the air inside 50, so really we don’t lose much with him out.

The argument that Gray isn’t the future shits me... he is better right now than any of the other options and we are trying to win this game - this week!

We are 2-0 FFS, not 0-2!

If Sam comes in and has his stock standard 20 with 2/3 goals - i will be rapt... in all likelihood, he has one out of the bag - which he often does against Brisbane.

His best footy has always been working all day up and down the wing - which is something we actually need with Amon out!

LOL

I think you've got the wrong Gray there mate. If Sammy's 'stock standard' game was 20 disposals and 2-3 goals he'd be a perennial All-Australian. Try 15 and 1.

 

[Boxx]

Expect another 10-12 disposal, 0 goal performance but to somehow manage to stay in the side until about round 20.

Todd or Sam?
That is almost Marshall’s total stats for both games together.

 

[ROBBBO]

Not the point. Football is a team game. I'm sure Sam will get more Dream Team points than Marshall did last week, but it comes at the expense of our forward structure now and at the expense of the development of probably the most crucial player on our list for the future.

Are you more angry that Todd is dropped or that Gray is promoted ?

I just don't think we need a 4th tall (Ebert is 191cm)

Grays early season form was horrible but now back to playing good footy, the changes seem ok, kicked 4 goals had 33, seems he's ready. It will be ok

 

[Boxx]

LOL

I think you've got the wrong Gray there mate. If Sammy's 'stock standard' game was 20 disposals and 2-3 goals he'd be a perennial All-Australian. Try 15 and 1.

Sorry, I meant against Brisbane...

 

[David Puddy]

Todd or Sam?
That is almost Marshall’s total stats for both games together.

Difference is, Marshall is a developing key forward that has only played 12 games and improves our structure significantly.

Sam Gray has played 76 games and is never going to get any better than he currently is.

 

[elpirate]

**** YOU KEN!

 

[ROBBBO]

And SPP will rotate with Ebert too which is paying dividends

 

[Boxx]

Difference is, Marshall is a developing key forward that has only played 12 games and improves our structure significantly.

Sam Gray has played 76 games and is never going to get any better than he currently is.

But, right now - for this game, we don’t need him to be getting better!
We are trying to go 3-0, not writing the season off and just giving guys with a theoretical higher ceiling a game.

 

[David Puddy]

But, right now - for this game, we don’t need him to be getting better!
We are trying to go 3-0, not writing the season off and just giving guys with a theoretical higher ceiling a game.

What about playing Jake Neade in the final round last season when we were no chance of finals knowing that he would be delisted? Why not give a youngster a go? Same with waiting until that same game to give Frampton a run. Ken has a history of this shit, which is what people are annoyed with.

 

[RossFC]

I really hope Farrell does well on the wing/half forward vs South.

Long term he's got something to offer there, delivering the ball inside 50, setting up goals and also kicking goals himself.

 

[PowerBaz]

I really hope Farrell does well on the wing/half forward vs South.

Long term he's got something to offer there, delivering the ball inside 50, setting up goals and also kicking goals himself.

yeah pity he's not in, offers something different, great kick for goal too - remind me of this when S.Gray misses from 35 out..... is what it is! and he's a lefty, always good to have a lefty in.

 

[Sleezy]

It's actually 6 years.
2014:
- Schulz, Westhoff, Butcher
- Butcher dropped after 2 goals in 2 games
- Replaced by Sam Gray

2015:
Schulz, Westhoff, Butcher
- Butcher lasts one game (a game where he kicked more goals than Westhoff and Schulz combined I might add)
- Replaced by Redden (fat, unfit ruckman that had been injured for 3 years, and never played another game).
- Down to two talls by rnd 3
- Butcher as 3rd tall makes a comeback in rnd 20 when we are 6-12. We beat a rampaging GWS and win 4 on the trot.

2016:
- Dixon, Schulz, Westhoff
- Schulz does his back in rnd 1, plays two more games for his career
- Schulz replaced by Sam Gray in rnd 2, Butcher having kicked 4 in rnd 1 in the SANFL
- Butcher doesn't get a game until rnd 17 when we are out of finals contention. Kicks 4, BOG. Kicks a third of our score next week as we get trounced by Sydney in the wet. Never plays another game.

2017:
- Dixon, Westhoff, Eddy
- Eddy kicks 3 goals in two games.
- Eddy is dropped for Jake Neade in rnd 3. Never plays again.
- We resort to playing Jackson Trengove as a negating tall forward, then give him away to the Bulldogs for free.


2018:
- Dixon, Watts, Marshall, Westhoff as wingman/utility
- Ryder does his Achilles before half time
- Rather than replace Ryder with a ruckman, we use Dixon in ruck and replace him with Jake Neade for rnd 2.
- Jake Neade plays 5 games without kicking a goal.
Marshall and Watts kick 14 goals between them by rnd 2, then about 5 more for the rest of the season as structure goes out the window because our young ruckman 'aren't ready'
- Frampton plays 1 game in rnd 23 when the season is shot. Even though he's not ready, he takes 4 contested marks and kicks goals as a forward ruck.

2019:
Ryder, Marshall, Westhoff
- Marshall kicks 1 in rnd 1
- Marshall kicks 0 in rnd 2 in the wet. Ryder and Westhoff also kick 0.
- Marshall dropped for Sam Gray.

In 2014, Butcher was a 22 year old 20 game, 30 goal KPF coming of a long injury.

In 2019, Marshall is a 21 year old, 10 game, 15 goal KPF coming off a year where both his parents died of cancer.

They both got dropped for Sam ****ing Gray.

Our KPF depth is:
32 Westhoff (Utility, Beard)
31 Ryder (Ruckman)
29 Dixon (Glass Ankles)
22 Frampton (Ruckman)
21 Marshall
20 Ladhams (Ruckman)
19 Hayes (Ruckman)

Let's play Sam Gray instead. He has such a high ceiling, and will definitely fill the hole at full forward in a couple of years time.

 

[Boxx]

What about playing Jake Neade in the final round last season when we were no chance of finals knowing that he would be delisted? Why not give a youngster a go? Same with waiting until that same game to give Frampton a run. Ken has a history of this shit, which is what people are annoyed with.

WTF are you going on about mate?
That is a completely different scenario, we are 2-0 and still trying to win aren’t we?
I would agree with you, playing an unknown kid to see how they go once the season is shot makes perfect sense and JN probably shouldn’t have got a game... but meh!

 

[dirty2]

Did I miss the teams? **** sake.

 

[David Puddy]

WTF are you going on about mate?
That is a completely different scenario, we are 2-0 and still trying to win aren’t we?
I would agree with you, playing an unknown kid to see how they go once the season is shot makes perfect sense and JN probably shouldn’t have got a game... but meh!

You're talking about not gifting games to Marshall when we're 2-0 and actually playing for something, fair enough.

I'm talking about last season when we were done and dusted and he still didn't have the balls to give any kids a run.

He's got his favourites and everyone knows it. Was Neade and Pittard last season, it's gonna be Gray this season.

 

[tribey]

But also, still revealing our team prior to official team release. Just why?

At least it was on selection night day this week and not on Tuesday morning.