Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

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El_Scorcho

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Hopefully Marshall comes out and kicks a bag in the SANFL takes a heap of marks I50 and looks like the player we think he can be and comes back into the AFL side for the Richmond game full of confidence.

Perhaps he may find form a lot faster in the SANFL then come back into the AFL side with more confidence and start to shine ?

The primary concern as a side is winning games and making finals and

Except history says that he won't. The modern SANFL is a dour, defensive football league full of guys with poor kicking skills. Trying to play KPF in that league to a high standard in the SANFL is very difficult. Only one side averaged 100 points a game in 2018, with the next best way back on 86 points a game. Port Adelaide averaged 66 points a game. The SANFL is a wasteland for KPFs.

If we want to win games, we should push on with the structure that's been the best looking forward setup we've had in years. Taking a 198cm forward away to replace him with a short resting midfielder is a significant structural change.

If we want to win a flag, we need Todd Marshall to develop into a good quality AFL player as soon as possible.

This structural change makes us worse now, and lowers our chances of winning a flag long term.
 
Sep 26, 2012
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People are worried that Ken is still on we don't need tall forwards kick.

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PortWTF

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The stat I'm most interested in this week is Brisbane intercept marks. I don't know if they break that down by where the intercept occurs, but taking out a tall for a small in theory should mean that a Brisbane tall backman will now be able to peel off and cover all high balls into our F50 because he knows that he doesn't have to take care of standing a tall who is more likely to mark it.
 

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People are 'grossly over reacting' to our 6th year of Groundhog day, where we start the season with a certain amount of tall forwards and then within a few rounds we've lost one and changed the structure for no good reason. This isn't a one off. I have no idea how anyone can have any faith in Hinkley's ability to get the selection of Marshall right over the next couple of seasons.

Can't wait until we have the usual suspects saying that Marshall "had to be" traded or delisted because he wasn't good enough or didn't fit in with the team or the gameplan or whatever. We haven't developed a genuine KPF since Tredrea, and that isn't because we're unlucky.

I hate that we can't rule this out. Butcher reached that point under Ken. He averaged 1.83 goals a game under Matthew Primus. Matthew Primus FFS!
 

Chrizzt

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Him being a traditional key forward is irrelevant. He's still a tall marking target which helps our ball movement and ability to create space moving forward. The fact that he can play smaller should be something in his favour. We only have 1 genuine key forward on our list, and he's out indefinitely at this stage recovering from a broken leg.
This is ignoring the fact that he presents on a lead/contests in a pack for a mark roughly once every 2 games. He's not a marking target at the moment, he's just tall.

It was certainly something he did a lot of as a junior but I reckon I've only seen one time where he's shown that ability at AFL level - taking a really good mark against the Dogs I think it was at AO at the northern end.

There was always a big risk with Marshall when we drafted him. He had poor form against the div1 u18s and in the all-stars, only dominating against the weaker div 2 teams.
 
Sad to say it, but realistically Sam Gray is capable of doing everything Marshall has the last two games.

Is he capable of attracting a tall defender to match up on him? Is he capable of freeing Westhoff up to roam where he does his best work? Is he capable of getting Brad Ebert a matchup advantage by getting to play on a small defender rather than Darcy Gardiner?

It's not just about each player's individual contributions on the stat sheet. It's about what they offer to the team as a whole. We could pick a random 195cm bloke who can run a bit out of the ammos and even if he didn't get a touch there would still be certain intangible things that he would offer that Sam Gray, no matter how hard he works or how well he plays individually, just physically can't. Ken Hinkley evidently doesn't value those intangibles.
 
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Is he capable of attracting a tall defender to match up on him? Is he capable of freeing Westhoff up to roam where he does his best work? Is he capable of getting Brad Ebert a matchup advantage by getting to play on a small defender rather than Darcy Gardiner?

It's not just about each player's individual contributions on the stat sheet. It's about what they offer to the team as a whole. We could pick a random 195cm bloke who can run a bit out of the ammos and even if he didn't get a touch there would still be certain intangible things that he would offer that Sam Gray, no matter how hard he works or how well he plays individually, just physically can't. Ken Hinkley evidently doesn't value those intangibles.
Sam Hayes better look else where in that case.
 
Had a suspicion so I looked it up.

Sam Gray has his best games vs GCS.

The next best games come against HAW.

BL 3rd best with a bigger sample size than HAW.

He also made his debut v BL and I reckon Kenny has loved the idea of him v BL ever since.
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Definitely likes playing us. Could be a masterstroke by Kenny. Good luck for the game and as usual no serious injuries to either team.
 
Marshall isn't a key forward at this stage of his career. People should stop pretending like he is.

The fact that he has less goal assists and less score involvements is what you should be looking at.

At the start of the season wasn't he rated best tall junior forward in the comp?
 

El_Scorcho

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This is ignoring the fact that he presents on a lead/contests in a pack for a mark roughly once every 2 games. He's not a marking target at the moment, he's just tall.

It was certainly something he did a lot of as a junior but I reckon I've only seen one time where he's shown that ability at AFL level - taking a really good mark against the Dogs I think it was at AO at the northern end.

There was always a big risk with Marshall when we drafted him. He had poor form against the div1 u18s and in the all-stars, only dominating against the weaker div 2 teams.

(Schulzenfest it's already begun)

He provides a target and an option far more often than that, and even when he's not making a contest, he's got a tall defender that has to worry about him far more than they'd have to worry about a resting midfielder because of his height, mobility and skillset.

You can be a marking target without being a traditional KPF. Westhoff and Brad Ebert are great examples.

He's a 12 game KPF at AFL level, and he'll never be a packbusting type, but that's fine because modern football requires him to be mobile and skillful.
 
At the start of the season wasn't he rated best tall junior forward in the comp?

Best 20 year old key position forward.

He's going to be great, but he's not there yet. If it's good enough for Howard not to play for awhile to find touch, it's good enough for Marshall.
 

El_Scorcho

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Best 20 year old key position forward.

He's going to be great, but he's not there yet. If it's good enough for Howard not to play for awhile to find touch, it's good enough for Marshall.

The difference is twofold.

Firstly, we had another option in defence in Watts, and Howard was a straight replacement as the next best available. Marshall was dropped for a midfield rotation.

Secondly, the SANFL is a dour defensive league and a barren wasteland for key forwards and key forward development. Marshall will contribute more quickly by remaining in the AFL, and we'll be a better side earlier because of it.
 

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(Schulzenfest it's already begun)

He provides a target and an option far more often than that, and even when he's not making a contest, he's got a tall defender that has to worry about him far more than they'd have to worry about a resting midfielder because of his height, mobility and skillset.

You can be a marking target without being a traditional KPF. Westoff and Brad Ebert are great examples.

He's a 12 game KPF at AFL level, and he'll never be a packbusting type, but that's fine because modern football requires him to be mobile and skillful.

Which he's not doing at the moment.

You're talking as if we should continue playing him regardless. I'll guarantee that Wines and Sam Gray will provide more of a threat to a tall defender than Marshall will in his current form.

I like the idea of Marshall in the team, but I'm not going to die on a hill for him based on his current level of output. It's that simple. You're playing this entire thing on paper - as long as we get X amount of games into Marshall, he'll end up as Y. That's not how development works. We're not asking him to develop in the SANFL as a key forward. We're asking him to go back and do the things that we know he is good at so he can get back in the side and get the experience necessary at AFL level.

There's no reason he can't provide second efforts, or put on pressure, or create separation from his opponent with his speed etc. That doesn't require AFL experience, that just requires the willingness to work. He's going to have ups and downs in his development cycle.
 

Duckimus Prime

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a Brisbane tall backman will now be able to peel off and cover all high balls into our F50 because he knows that he doesn't have to take care of standing a tall who is more likely to mark it.
Sounds like an accurate description of Liam Jones last week. Or Jeremy McGovern in the Elimination Final in 2017. Who were they manning up on again?
 

rainwizard39

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Sounds like an accurate description of Liam Jones last week. Or Jeremy McGovern in the Elimination Final in 2017. Who were they manning up on again?
Liam Jones took on Ryder a lot of that game and does McGovern count? It’s like saying Buddy kicking 5 on Hurley or Rance means that they must be bad defenders. He is one of the heighest paid players for a reason.
 

NEGAN

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I am just going to ask the question...


With Lycett in the side is the dropping of Marshall/Sam Gray selection as bad as it looks on paper?

To me it's not that bad and fully expect Ryder to have more impact up forward.
 
Marshall really should have been persisted with until the West Coast game. If he's struggling then don't play him in that game because he'd be fodder for McGovern and the likes but carn. We've got Brisbane this week which is probably going to be a pretty open, quick, high scoring affair and then Richmond the week after who are without their best defender and are still trying to work their defensive structures out.
 

drcollossimo

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I am just going to ask the question...


With Lycett in the side is the dropping of Marshall/Sam Gray selection as bad as it looks on paper?

To me it's not that bad and fully expect Ryder to have more impact up forward.
Depends Neegs with Sammy in our front 6 will really trouble those Hobbiton defenders!
 
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So we finally reached peak Hinkley. entering a game with 0 key forwards.

A previously failed experiment of Ryder forward is now our one player of reasonable height expected to play more than 40% of game time forward. Even still he's more useful in the center square. the Sam Gray inclusion could only be of higher irony if Jake Neade came back for a send off game to play alongside him.
 
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... just like Kenny he releases the info so much earlier than the oppo coaches
I'm sure the coaching brains trust at the Brions will be thankful for the extra few hours to formulate how their defence is going to manage to cover Sam Gray at full forward.
 

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