Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[FishingRick04]

He is a flat track bully

 

[Alyx]

Top comment on Facebook:

A true #truebeliever.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Sam Gray, if he were coming in for Amon as a straight swap, isn't an awful selection.

Remember that Sam Gray played the same stupid isolated half forward role that saw people calling for Boak to be dropped last year, and he struggled more than Boak did. He's likely to get the same sort of uplift in form that the rest of our mids/wings/half forwards have gotten this year based on the gameplan alone. If he's inserted into a wingman type role that suits his strengths, he can certainly be an adequate role player in a good football team. He gutruns well, he marks reasonably well and he knows where the goals are.

But if we bring Sam Gray in for Amon, it means Wines has come in for Marshall. So it's a pretty significant structural change. It's shifts the entire balance of our side.

Now we have Ryder and Westhoff as KPFs. Ryder will switch into the ruck, and Westhoff will play a lot of the game off the half backline. We'll spend a lot of this game looking up and seeing our forwards covered by taller defenders more often than not, and that will stifle our ball movement and generate turnovers.

While it won't necessarily cost us the game, it does make the game tactically more difficult for us, and we're going to have to execute at a much more accurate rate than we did against Carlton to win. It's just really frustrating for no good reason.

Moving forward, it starts to get really, really grim. Marshall will struggle to work his way back into the side playing SANFL because he's a 20yo KPF still filling out his frame trying to get on the end of SANFL standard ball delivery. Sam Gray will play servicable footy in a forward line that doesn't function as well and we won't quite be able to put our fingers on what is going wrong. Dixon is still weeks away, but when he comes back, adding him AND Marshall means adding 2 talls to the side which just isn't happening under Hinkley, so the long term development of Marshall starts to come into question.

 

[Pt Augusta Power]

S Gray to tag either Neale or Zorko, and Howard up forward.. calling it now.

Sam Gray to be our key position forward. Kick it to him in the pocket- classic Kenn

 

[Contested Marx]

 

[TeeKray]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

 

[GoPorts]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

Even the talls have to play small to get a game.

Also inside 50 marks are a bonus now, good thing Scott Hodges isn't playing now. That 154 goals season would be played down for not enough pressure acts

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[El_Scorcho]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

The man just fundamentally doesn't understand what a functional forward setup looks like, or why different skillsets are important. The insane Choco late 2000s forward line with the 5'10 KPF, the HOF decoy, the flawed genius and the broomstick was better than anything Hinkley has produced outside of 2014 when he relied on an extreme fitness advantage to make space and the kicking accuracy of Schulz and Wingard.

Sam Gray and Todd Marshall could have identical skillsets (they don't) but there is still an advantage in being 20+cm taller in terms of providing an option and generating that quick ball movement. It shouldn't have to be explained and yet here we are.

 

[dirty2]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

Well I expect Marshall to ask for a trade end of season.

 

[Janus]

Sam Gray, if he were coming in for Amon as a straight swap, isn't an awful selection.

Remember that Sam Gray played the same stupid isolated half forward role that saw people calling for Boak to be dropped last year, and he struggled more than Boak did. He's likely to get the same sort of uplift in form that the rest of our mids/wings/half forwards have gotten this year based on the gameplan alone. If he's inserted into a wingman type role that suits his strengths, he can certainly be an adequate role player in a good football team. He gutruns well, he marks reasonably well and he knows where the goals are.

But if we bring Sam Gray in for Amon, it means Wines has come in for Marshall. So it's a pretty significant structural change. It's shifts the entire balance of our side.

Now we have Ryder and Westhoff as KPFs. Ryder will switch into the ruck, and Westhoff will play a lot of the game off the half backline. We'll spend a lot of this game looking up and seeing our forwards covered by taller defenders more often than not, and that will stifle our ball movement and generate turnovers.

While it won't necessarily cost us the game, it does make the game tactically more difficult for us, and we're going to have to execute at a much more accurate rate than we did against Carlton to win. It's just really frustrating for no good reason.

Moving forward, it starts to get really, really grim. Marshall will struggle to work his way back into the side playing SANFL because he's a 20yo KPF still filling out his frame trying to get on the end of SANFL standard ball delivery. Sam Gray will play servicable footy in a forward line that doesn't function as well and we won't quite be able to put our fingers on what is going wrong. Dixon is still weeks away, but when he comes back, adding him AND Marshall means adding 2 talls to the side which just isn't happening under Hinkley, so the long term development of Marshall starts to come into question.

Seriously?

If Westhoff is playing most of the game in the backline, what the **** was the point of bringing in Howard? If Bonner, Houston, Burton and Byrne-Jones still need help in defence with a 199cm key position back in the mix, they've got serious problems.

Marshall isn't in the team to be a key position player at this stage of his career. He's in the team to be a general forward who just happens to be tall. No team plays more than two key position forwards in their forward line and is successful - look at Adelaide tonight. Hot garbage.

Todd will go back to the SANFL, get some touch back and be back in the team when he's ready. Ken said selection is about who is the best performing.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Well I expect Marshall to ask for a trade end of season.

Because he got dropped on the back of doing nothing against carlton ? and before that a quite game against melb and nothing in the two JLT games ? Turn it up.

I love Marshall as much as everyone else but continuing to pick him would be gold passes all over again, nothing wrong with sending him back to the SANFL to find form and demand his place in the AFL team.

 

[Macca19]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

I can see why the club feels that way

 

[Forzaport]

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

He should’ve been honest and just said that the club considers Marshall to be a poor man’s Sam Gray.

 

[Janus]

The man just fundamentally doesn't understand what a functional forward setup looks like, or why different skillsets are important. The insane Choco late 2000s forward line with the 5'10 KPF, the HOF decoy, the flawed genius and the broomstick was better than anything Hinkley has produced outside of 2014 when he relied on an extreme fitness advantage to make space and the kicking accuracy of Schulz and Wingard.

Sam Gray and Todd Marshall could have identical skillsets (they don't) but there is still an advantage in being 20+cm taller in terms of providing an option and generating that quick ball movement. It shouldn't have to be explained and yet here we are.

It doesn't matter how tall a player is if he isn't getting his hands to the ball.

Ken wasn't saying that he doesn't prefer to have Marshall in the side as a tall - he was saying that he doesn't judge him based on how many goals he is kicking at this stage of his career - it's more about how he gets to contests and the pressure he provides. If all things were equal and Todd was doing the little things right, he would be in the side over Gray...and he was to start the year. But since our best 22 has Dixon and Ryder/Lycett as our key forwards with Westhoff being the swingman, unless Marshall is going to do those little things, he's always going to find his spot under pressure.

Playing players simply to get chalk up a number next to their name in the games played column is incredibly stupid. They've got to be playing well enough to earn selection. A wet game should have been just what a tall forward like Marshall thrived on - a guy like McGovern didn't seem to have an issue with it.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Seriously?

If Westhoff is playing most of the game in the backline, what the **** was the point of bringing in Howard? If Bonner, Houston, Burton and Byrne-Jones still need help in defence with a 199cm key position back in the mix, they've got serious problems.

Marshall isn't in the team to be a key position player at this stage of his career. He's in the team to be a general forward who just happens to be tall. No team plays more than two key position forwards in their forward line and is successful - look at Adelaide tonight. Hot garbage.

Todd will go back to the SANFL, get some touch back and be back in the team when he's ready. Ken said selection is about who is the best performing.

Westhoff spent plenty of time in the back half against Carlton. He'll absolutely spend time there against Brisbane who have a more dominant marking forward setup and a better midfield getting the ball in.

Westhoff is another example of a general utility who has played mainly forward this year who just happens to be tall. Ryder is the closest approximation we have to an actual KPF.

The labels attached to these players doesn't change the fact that obvious marking targets generate quicker ball movement and are more likely to pull the defence out of shape to create space.

Ken's been picking on "best available" for 6 years now and we've had some very poor footballers carve out a reasonable careers for us in that time, meanwhile our structure has been horrendous and our forward setup has been pathetic.

It doesn't matter how tall a player is if he isn't getting his hands to the ball.

Ken wasn't saying that he doesn't prefer to have Marshall in the side as a tall - he was saying that he doesn't judge him based on how many goals he is kicking at this stage of his career - it's more about how he gets to contests and the pressure he provides. If all things were equal and Todd was doing the little things right, he would be in the side over Gray...and he was to start the year. But since our best 22 has Dixon and Ryder/Lycett as our key forwards with Westhoff being the swingman, unless Marshall is going to do those little things, he's always going to find his spot under pressure.

Playing players simply to get chalk up a number next to their name in the games played column is incredibly stupid. They've got to be playing well enough to earn selection. A wet game should have been just what a tall forward like Marshall thrived on - a guy like McGovern didn't seem to have an issue with it.

It does, actually, for the reasons i've explained. There is zero time to think in modern AFL football. If you're thinking, you're done, you may as well rush the ball over the boundary line and try to win the stoppage. It has to be instinctive if you want to score freely and regularly, and that being able to look up and quickly assess that you have a favourable matchup upfield. If that matchup is Sam Gray vs a key defender, you're going to hesitate and then your chances of committing a turnover increase significantly.

The defence does the same thing, worries about the marking target, and all of a sudden holes open up everywhere and Butters and Duursma are cartwheeling their way into an open goal.

We've replaced him with a midfielder with questionable skills. If Dixon was back it'd be a totally different story.

 

[PAFC66]

Janus has to be related to Hinkley. Mate how many times have you seen us run with Sam Gray and seen it fail?

 

[PAFC66]

I can see why the club feels that way

Can you see why the club has brought Sam Gray in? Other then form...? We know he plays well at that level..

 

[edgie]

The man just fundamentally doesn't understand what a functional forward setup looks like...

To him, he played with a medium flanker that kicked 1300 goals and the talls were just support acts.

This isn't the norm though. We even stopped management good returns from our own flanker that peaked with a 50 goal season.


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[El_Scorcho]

Janus has posted extensively and correctly about the benefits Marshall brings to the side and it frankly staggers me that he's willing to put all of that aside to be contrarian. He's usually at least strictly internally consistent.

Sam Gray doesn't make our side better now. Going tall for small throws off the balance and stifles our attack. Gray isn't some pressure generating behemoth, he's a poor man's Boak, his strengths are run and spread. Worse than that, playing against South Adelaide this week doesn't make Todd Marshall a better footballer. He'll have to deal with new teammates and try to get on the end of SANFL level delivery.

It's just a bad move in every facet. Lowers our chances of beating Brisbane, lowers our chances of winning a flag.

 

[TeeKray]

The idea that height doesn't matter is so plainly absurd that it's not even worth addressing with a counter argument.

 

[Janus]

Westhoff spent plenty of time in the back half against Carlton. He'll absolutely spend time there against Brisbane who have a more dominant marking forward setup and a better midfield getting the ball in.

Westhoff is another example of a general utility who has played mainly forward this year who just happens to be tall. Ryder is the closest approximation we have to an actual KPF.

The labels attached to these players doesn't change the fact that obvious marking targets generate quicker ball movement and are more likely to pull the defence out of shape to create space.

Ken's been picking on "best available" for 6 years now and we've had some very poor footballers carve out a reasonable careers for us in that time, meanwhile our structure has been horrendous and our forward setup has been pathetic.

Westhoff spent time back against Carlton because it was wet and because our half backs were putrid at defending - hence the inclusion of Howard (which I think is a mistake but whatever).

We had Marshall in the team and it didn't help Bonner or Burton move the ball with any great speed. Why? Because the modern game isn't about contested marking. It's about creating space, like you said - and a tall who isn't willing to lead up the ground and provide options to the defence is a negative to good ball movement.

The idea of Marshall is a great one. That's why he was in the team to begin with. But if you continually ignore the reality for the idea, you're going to lose games. I don't want him getting games simply because he's tall. I want him getting games because he's playing good football.

It does, actually, for the reasons i've explained. There is zero time to think in modern AFL football. If you're thinking, you're done, you may as well rush the ball over the boundary line and try to win the stoppage. It has to be instinctive if you want to score freely and regularly, and that being able to look up and quickly assess that you have a favourable matchup upfield. If that matchup is Sam Gray vs a key defender, you're going to hesitate and then your chances of committing a turnover increase significantly.

The defence does the same thing, worries about the marking target, and all of a sudden holes open up everywhere and Butters and Duursma are cartwheeling their way into an open goal.

We've replaced him with a midfielder with questionable skills. If Dixon was back it'd be a totally different story.

I'd rather Sam Gray open in space because he's 10 meters ahead of his slower opponent than I would Todd Marshall in a one on one with a key defender, thanks all the same.

Now, if Todd Marshall was 10 meters ahead of his slower opponent, I'd rather him in the team than Sam Gray...and that's the point. He's not putting in the effort required to do any of the things you are suggesting. Just because he's tall doesn't mean it's going to happen...you need to work to create space!

 

[Janus]

Janus has posted extensively and correctly about the benefits Marshall brings to the side and it frankly staggers me that he's willing to put all of that aside to be contrarian. He's usually at least strictly internally consistent.

Sam Gray doesn't make our side better now. Going tall for small throws off the balance and stifles our attack. Gray isn't some pressure generating behemoth, he's a poor man's Boak, his strengths are run and spread. Worse than that, playing against South Adelaide this week doesn't make Todd Marshall a better footballer. He'll have to deal with new teammates and try to get on the end of SANFL level delivery.

It's just a bad move in every facet. Lowers our chances of beating Brisbane, lowers our chances of winning a flag.

Exactly.

There are two ways of creating spread across the field:

1) Run from your midfield/defence

2) Leading up the ground from your key forwards into space

Marshall should be playing as a lead up forward and creating spread through providing options for the defence - but he's not at the moment.

I think Marshall brings a lot of benefits to the side, but I think he's out of form at the moment and needs to find touch in the SANFL. I don't want him taking huge grabs or dominating...I just want him using his speed to create separation on his opponent and putting on the pressure in the forward line that is required. Ken has always brought back Marshall when he's been in good form.

I'm not putting anything aside to be contrarian. I've been consistent with one key element:

No passengers.

P.S I would have dropped Bonner before Marshall, but maybe the coaches believe that the reason Bonner was so poor was because Todd wasn't providing the option necessary for him.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I think Marshall brings a lot of benefits to the side, but I think he's out of form at the moment and needs to find touch in the SANFL. I don't want him taking huge grabs or dominating...I just want him using his speed to create separation on his opponent and putting on the pressure in the forward line that is required. Ken has always brought back Marshall when he's been in good form.

The SANFL remains a horrible league for a key forward to find form or touch due to the defensive style mixed with poor kicking skills.

I'm not putting anything aside to be contrarian. I've been consistent with one key element:

No passengers.

I don't agree at all. He wasn't personally getting the rewards but he was a cog in the machine that saw our forward line finally working reasonably well. His time to get the reward for his efforts would have come.

I think the sample size is too small to argue that Marshall isn't pulling his weight at this point, given his level of experience and the nature of the 2 games we've played so far. He's played a role as the 3rd tall and he's far from disgraced himself in that role.

To want to drop him so badly that you replace him with someone with an entirely different role and skillset to get it done is a stupid overreaction that makes us worse this round and lowers our chances of winning a flag.

 

[El_Scorcho]

His game against Melbourne was good. He's a 12 game KPF and he managed 10 touches, 4 marks, a goal and 5 score involvements in a resounding win in a game we were expected to lose.

Then he has an quieter day against Carlton when it rains and he's straight out to "find form" in the quagmire that is an SANFL forward line.

Maybe we can ask the AFL if we can loan him to literally any other club for a couple of seasons to develop

 

[edgie]

I see the entire forward line potentially falling apart without Marshall.

He has been out of form and yes, even his round one didn't impress me. If Butcher produced those stats in 2014 he'd be escorted out of the club by the cheer squad. 2016 Schulz would be lined up in the change room and put down. I don't give a damn what stage of development somebody is at, they gotta look lively and he hasn't to me this year. Everybody looked lively in round one it almost cancels out.

He has however, been an anchor of our structure since pre-season, with the other talls being resting rucks and Westhoff who comes and goes. He is playing the Dixon role, and lets be honest, Dixon would not have been dropped for those returns because he has had some quiet days himself.