Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[GremioPower]

Ugh I reckon I have worked it out. I'm still not sure I like it but I reckon I've worked it out.

Amon is out for Sam Gray, who will play in the mid and spend at least part of the game tagging Neale

Howard is in for Watts, basic like for like.

Boak is taking the spot of Marshall. They are backing in Ebo to be a full on genuine full forward, and Boaky to be a "short third tall" if that makes sense.

Finally, Wines is taking the spot of Boak, who has spent a lot of time in the guts in games 1 & 2.

Obviously there is a lot of gameday flexibility with this, but I'd say this is the basic plan.

Precisely my thought. We are probably both completely wrong, then...

I could agree with this but not sure how trengove doesnt get a look in over gray, we know exactly what gray will provide at afl level, 10-25 disp. And a goal. Jack seems to have taken his game to another level that surely warrants another crack at the highest level.

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Jack would probably be in, if not for Wines, I guess.

Just watched Ken's presser from today. He said that what they look for from Marshall is his pressure and ground level work, that they consider him a medium sized forward in the way that he plays, and that any tall forward stuff he does such as marking is a "bonus".

Ladies and gentlemen, there is officially no hope for a functioning tall forward set up under this regime.

Hinkley just stated a fact, didn't he?I have always seen Marshall as our tallest small.

 

[Revan11]

Not that I’m defending Hinkleys call to drop Marshall, but to be fair I’ve always thought Hinkley was Marshall’s biggest fan and always advocated getting him into the side. If you look at press conferences from 2017-18 he consistently stated he wanted to get Marshall into the 22.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Toddys game against Melbourne was awesome I thought.

Only saw highlights of the blues game

 

[RossFC]

Top comment on Facebook:

A true #truebeliever.

wow that bathwater has got to the brain. That’s embarrassing.

 

[Powerage]

The average height of our 6 man forward line (counting Sam Gray as one of our six forwards to replace Todd Marshall) has dropped from 190 cm or 6'3" to 185 cm or 6'1". This is not of course a reliable marker of the quality of a forward line, but one I have used to illustrate a point.

This will impact on:
1.- tall marking targets in our forward line
2. tall marking targets around the ground
3. Ryder who will be double teamed by the tallest Brisbane defenders in marking contests
4. result in less crumbing opportunities for our small forwards
5. result in an annoyingly high number of 'shades of gray' outburst from the commentators


I can see this being defendable strategy if the Brisbane defense is height challenged (they aren't they average 6'3") or if the pace and agility of our forward line compensates for the lack of height. It doesn't. The Brisbane defense average 6'3" and Todd Marshall is quicker and more agile than Sam Gray. Arguably we have gained some run, despite losing pace.

I am not even so keen on the replacement of Watts with Howard because Watts is a brilliant ball user while Howard is below average. I would probably prefer Broadbent. I can see that Howard might be a better matchup for Hipwood. It also may free up Westhoff to play more as a tall target up the ground as Howard plays more as a Key defender than Watts.

Wines playing as a Key Forward for at least part of the game is actually a strategy I could live with, but this would be too bold for Hinkley.

I stand by what I said earlier, tall forwards rarely find form in the reserves. A quick confidence building mark and goal to Howard in the Power would go further to him regaining form than a match in the reserves IMO. To make the decision even more mind-numbingly ****ing stupid, its not like Ryder has been setting the world on fire as a key forward. Being double teamed will further nullify his impact leaving Westhoff as our lone tall target to reliably kick to.

There may be hope if Howard is played forward, although that leaves Clurey or Jonas to give away 12+ (5") cm to Hipwood. Frampton must now be searching for something sharp as he clearly must feel like the Universe is plotting against him.

I almost want Brisbane to win if it would result in Hinkley being fired with the reason given being the idiocy of this team selection.

Here endeth my dissertation

 

[GremioPower]

From the Far-West Footy blog:

Changes for Round 3
After repeating the line-up in the previous rounds, we have lost Watts and Amon due injury, and decided to drop Marshall. To replace them, we called Wines, Howard, and Sam Gray. It is an odd selection, and the melts in BigFooty have reached hysterical levels [soooo good!]. The issues here seem to be mainly two: Wines has gotten in for no one; and nobody has replaced Marshall. Howard would be in for Watts; and Sam, for Amon.

With Wines substituting nobody, our inside midfield gets an extra man in the rotation. This seems to suggest that we will try to play even more physically that we have done it so far. We don’t want Brisbane to have the ball at all – and we are absolutely right on that.

Marshall is our tallest small, so Sammy could be seen as his replacement. Still, Marshall also plays like a tall; then who will replace him? Hopefully, Howard will. If Howard plays as target [“KPF”], being part of our defensive and offensive rotations, he would be filling in for both Watts and Marshall; in the same way that Sam, playing wide in the wings and as courier[“small forward”], would be replacing both Amon and Marshall.

This is how the changes make sense, at least, for me. The only question remaining would be who will replace Watts as link [“CHB”]. That, to me, is our main problem. If we are unable to get the ball out of defense successfully, it could be a long evening for us at the Gabba.

EskimoPAFC, as I have said, I believe we are on the same page here.

 

[TealPastures]

Boak has had 2 good games in the midfield so moving him forward where he struggles looks genius.

I think it'd make a lot more sense for Wines to play the Marshall role coming back from injury. Keep Boak where he is, he's had two BOG performances ffs

 

[Andre]

I saw part of Ken's press conference after the Melbourne game. He had a not so subtle dig at the doubters that supported the club. It came across as petty. The fans had lots of justification to have doubts about him and the club. The results over the years speak for themselves. It was the wrong thing to say. He should have framed it differently. It should have been more about re-gaining the trust of the fans.

This is a key one for me. This goes beyond one games choices to the club being on thin ice with the fans. The club was supposedly asking what the club needed to do to regain the trust of the fans. Top of my list in the pre-season was the first time a tall is injured or out of form not replacing them with a small.

Facebook fans are filled with idiots, but if the club truly thinks they’ve listened then they’d have known amongst fans who aren’t ‘We love you Trav! Go Rodin!’, that selections, especially lack of tall forwards and make shift rucks have been long festering sore points. Rucks are fixed (as long as both remain fit, because no one trusts Ken to pick Frampton if one is injured instead of playing Westhoff as support and ****ing our structures up further), but our refusal to play a functional forward line beyond 2 or 3 rounds every year is unchanged.

The club monitors BigFooty, they talk to supporters, KT should be or have directed Davies to have a veto over any proposed selections and when Ken put this up have said ‘Nope’. The club is stuck with Ken, but doesn’t / shouldn’t just accept everything he proposes without question. He hasn’t earned that. That this got by those higher up without being stopped undercuts any faith I had that the club knew they ****ed up and were serious about learning from it.

 

[Janus]

So what you’re saying is it doesn’t matter how shit Marshall plays, he should be picked no matter what?

And you think that is something that Ken should be forced into?

Are you, like, for real?

 

[melanChronic]

Lienert is fit, playing SANFL and was apparently best 22 during the JLT. He would be the perfect replacement for Watts.

But instead Ken replaces three of the best kicks at the club with three of the worst.

 

[PowerLil]

Joel Garner an emergency for the first time I think.

I love Garner. If Ken's looking for someone who hits the contest hard, Joel's it. Jet.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I see the entire forward line potentially falling apart without Marshall.

He has been out of form and yes, even his round one didn't impress me. If Butcher produced those stats in 2014 he'd be escorted out of the club by the cheer squad. 2016 Schulz would be lined up in the change room and put down. I don't give a damn what stage of development somebody is at, they gotta look lively and he hasn't to me this year. Everybody looked lively in round one it almost cancels out.

He has however, been an anchor of our structure since pre-season, with the other talls being resting rucks and Westhoff who comes and goes. He is playing the Dixon role, and lets be honest, Dixon would not have been dropped for those returns despite him having some quiet days himself.

Yep. Watch Butter and Rosee have quiet games without a proper forward structure to feed off of.

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[RossFC]

Lienert is fit, playing SANFL and was apparently best 22 during the JLT. He would be the perfect replacement for Watts.

But instead Ken replaces three of the best kicks at the club with three of the worst.

If Lienert plays well he gives himself every chance to play AFL the week after. He was supposed to be out for another 2 weeks so maybe they are easing him back in.

 

[PowerLil]

Going to be the same thing every year. Gray will be worthless and a nothing player.in long stretches of he game. If there are periods where the game is pretty much over (win or lose) he'll bob up and kick some junk goals to keep his spot.

Fingers crossed the revised game plan has a positive effect on Sam's game like the others.

 

[Duck Farmer]

This is a key one for me. This goes beyond one games choices to the club being on thin ice with the fans. The club was supposedly asking what the club needed to do to regain the trust of the fans. Top of my list in the pre-season was the first time a tall is injured or out of form not replacing them with a small.

Facebook fans are filled with idiots, but if the club truly thinks they’ve listened then they’d have known amongst fans who aren’t ‘We love you Trav! Go Rodin!’, that selections, especially lack of tall forwards and make shift rucks have been long festering sore points. Rucks are fixed (as long as both remain fit, because no one trusts Ken to pick Frampton if one is injured instead of playing Westhoff as support and ******* our structures up further), but our refusal to play a functional forward line beyond 2 or 3 rounds every year is unchanged.

The club monitors BigFooty, they talk to supporters, KT should be or have directed Davies to have a veto over any proposed selections and when Ken put this up have said ‘Nope’. The club is stuck with Ken, but doesn’t / shouldn’t just accept everything he proposes without question. He hasn’t earned that. That this got by those higher up without being stopped undercuts any faith I had that the club knew they ****** up and were serious about learning from it.

It's almost like KT overrules Hinkley at the selection table for the first few rounds in order to get membership numbers up by teasing us with the promise of exciting tall targets in the forward line, and once the long tail of diminishing returns kicks in he backs off and Hinkley reverts to type.

If Hinkley had've said this week "Toddy didn't have the best game against Carlton so this week we're playing him in the SANFL to build some touch and confidence, but we're confident we've got our systems and structures right so Billy comes in to replace him" I would've been convinced he had changed his spots and would have built him a bigger altar than Janus's.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Lienert is fit, playing SANFL and was apparently best 22 during the JLT. He would be the perfect replacement for Watts.

But instead Ken replaces three of the best kicks at the club with three of the worst.

Isn’t Lienert injured?

 

[JUSTWORK]

Isn’t Lienert injured?

Named on the wing for the magpies

 

[Chrizzt]

So what you’re saying is it doesn’t matter how shit Marshall plays, he should be picked no matter what?

And you think that is something that Ken should be forced into?

Are you, like, for real?

There's two distinct parts to this:
1) dropping Marshall, and;
2) picking SGray

I'm fine with dropping Marshall, kid needs a rocket and I'm not convinced he'll make it. But picking Gray is just more of the same shit we've seen before. And why have Farrell as travelling emergency last week but then select a non-emergency this week?

 

[RossFC]

Named on the wing for the magpies

Hartlett is named at CHB (Despite having McKenzie, Lienert, Grundy and Corcoran) and Farrell at CHF (Despite having Frampton and Hill).

Don't take too much notice of how they compile the team sheet.

 

[Janus]

There's two distinct parts to this:
1) dropping Marshall, and;
2) picking SGray

I'm fine with dropping Marshall, kid needs a rocket and I'm not convinced he'll make it. But picking Gray is just more of the same shit we've seen before. And why have Farrell as travelling emergency last week but then select a non-emergency this week?

Unfortunately for Farrell he didn’t play last week due to being the emergency, otherwise he would be in. It’s that simple.

 

[RossFC]

Unfortunately for Farrell he didn’t play last week due to being the emergency, otherwise he would be in. It’s that simple.

Yep if Sam Gray played well vs Crows reserves 2 weeks ago he would have been emergency last week and if Farrell played (and played well vs West Adelaide), he probs would be in the AFL side this week.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Named on the wing for the magpies

Ah that was a quick recovery

 

[Smithy7]

So what you’re saying is it doesn’t matter how shit Marshall plays, he should be picked no matter what?

And you think that is something that Ken should be forced into?

Are you, like, for real?

We have two new coaches, who I don't think are yes men. If you don't perform, you don't play. And that's what we want to see.
Jarrad Schofield might have a bit of input.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Hartlett is named at CHB (Despite having McKenzie, Lienert, Grundy and Corcoran) and Farrell at CHF (Despite having Frampton and Hill).

Don't take too much notice of how they compile the team sheet.

I’m not, I was responding to a comment about him being injured

 

[GremioPower]

It's almost like KT overrules Hinkley at the selection table for the first few rounds in order to get membership numbers up by teasing us with the promise of exciting tall targets in the forward line, and once the long tail of diminishing returns kicks in he backs off and Hinkley reverts to type.

If Hinkley had've said this week "Toddy didn't have the best game against Carlton so this week we're playing him in the SANFL to build some touch and confidence, but we're confident we've got our systems and structures right so Billy comes in to replace him" I would've been convinced he had changed his spots and would have built him a bigger altar than Janus's.

Frampton and Marshall are alike as much as Sam Gray and Marshall. If the point is to preserve structure, Billy is NOT the answer.