Fixture Changes VS Carlton Round 9 - The Liam Jones Cup

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Keystone agony

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Aug 15, 2011
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Very interesting

Part of me says late change...but if not i suspect its play a 7th defender on the wing and have the usual defender on the bench at all times. Which happens for every said anyway and this results in a loose in front of Curnow.

I think Liam Jones would be the best loose

A Curnow/Mackay/JOS/pitt is off the ground for 55% of the game. So all 4 are on field at the same time for 45%

This 45% they will want all 4 tall dog defenders. 3 manned up with 1 free. The other 55% time theyll be fine with 3 on field.

L.Jones 100% TOG
Keath 90%
Gardner 90%
JOD 65%

The 200% Total from the 2 wingers. 45% it will be a defender tall or small to allow for the 4 Tall DEFs on field at the one time as mentioned above. Means theres 155% for Baker and B.Williams (77.5% TOG each). 22.5% each for BWill and Baker will be with a defender starting on the other wing. 55% will be with eachother on the wings.

Between the 2 wing and 6 Def starting positions = 800%

L.Jones -100
Keath -90
Gardner -90
JOD -65
Baker -77.5
B.Williams -77.5
= 300% leftover

75% TOG each for JJ, Doc, Ed, B.Dale

So maybe he is just playing a loose and leaving a carlton spare
 
Jun 7, 2012
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Very interesting

Part of me says late change...but if not i suspect its play a 7th defender on the wing and have the usual defender on the bench at all times. Which happens for every said anyway and this results in a loose in front of Curnow.

I think Liam Jones would be the best loose

A Curnow/Mackay/JOS/pitt is off the ground for 55% of the game. So all 4 are on field at the same time for 45%

This 45% they will want all 4 tall dog defenders. 3 manned up with 1 free. The other 55% time theyll be fine with 3 on field.

L.Jones 100% TOG
Keath 90%
Gardner 90%
JOD 65%

The 200% Total from the 2 wingers. 45% it will be a defender tall or small to allow for the 4 Tall DEFs on field at the one time as mentioned above. Means theres 155% for Baker and B.Williams (77.5% TOG each). 22.5% each for BWill and Baker will be with a defender starting on the other wing. 55% will be with eachother on the wings.

Between the 2 wing and 6 Def starting positions = 800%

L.Jones -100
Keath -90
Gardner -90
JOD -65
Baker -77.5
B.Williams -77.5
= 300% leftover

75% TOG each for JJ, Doc, Ed, B.Dale

So maybe he is just playing a loose and leaving a carlton spare

Great post. This is sort of what I'm expecting.

We're probably a little different to most sides with our defensive personnel. I think most sides would ideally have 2-3 KPD, 1-2 mid sizers and then three smalls. We don't really have the mid sizers on our list so have been going in with 3 KPDs and 4 smalls every week. Hard to get away with that this week when their three talls demand an opponent so (while I don't love it) can understand the thought process behind bringing O'Donnell in. Ideally you'd have a Nathan Broad type who can mind Silvagni/Pittonet when they're forward and then move to a small when they drop to two talls and still have that loose, intercepting option.

Liam Jones is the only guy I trust guarding one of the Coleman Medallists. Keath hasn't quite been the same since 2021 and I don't like the Gardner matchup on either. Think I'd do Jones/Curnow, Keath/McKay, Gardner/Silvagni, JOD loose based on the options in the 22.
 

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tonzdogs

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The last time we debuted 2 players against Carlton about 3-4 years ago, we got smashed by 45 points. Why wouldn’t he wait till next week or the week after? This week is huge for our year. We win, we possibly look at top 4 this year. We lose, and we’re back to being a mid table side with our usual problems. Seriously if we do lose it, the current selection committee really need to be looked at.
 

adogsfan5

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For those interested here are O'Donnell's advanced stats VFL averages from his 3 matches...

9.0 kicks
82.0% kicking efficiency
6.3 handballs
15.3 disposals
85.3% disposal efficiency
6.0 contested possessions
9.0 uncontested possessions
6.7 marks
0.3 contested marks
2.0 intercept marks
0.3 tackles
2.7 spoils
0.7 inside 50s
2.0 rebound 50s
1.0 score launches
1.3 score involements
72.0 ranking points/supercoach

His kicking and speed in his highlights are impressive.
 

Golden_6

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The team lineup really doesn’t make sense at the moment. Carlton have only two key forwards and we have Gardner on the bench. Absolutely no idea who our 3rd KPD is going to line up on given the rest of Carlton’s forward line are genuine smalls.

O’Donnell has an obvious matchup with Silvagni first up. It would be ridiculous to play him anywhere other than where he’s played at VFL level.
 

RedWhite&Blue

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Does anybody know if Merv Hughes son is playing local footy. He could be a replacement for Keath next week:)

On CPH2305 using BigFooty.com mobile app
I vividly remember watching Merv play a game for Werribee at Sandringham in the 80’s. He was playing fullback and he was under pressure in the goalsquare, turned around and dribbled it through the goals to concede a behind… the stupid goal umpire signaled a goal and refused to correct his descision. Very funny
 

RedWhite&Blue

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The last time we debuted 2 players against Carlton about 3-4 years ago, we got smashed by 45 points. Why wouldn’t he wait till next week or the week after? This week is huge for our year. We win, we possibly look at top 4 this year. We lose, and we’re back to being a mid table side with our usual problems. Seriously if we do lose it, the current selection committee really need to be looked at.
JOD could be a star… Tell me your not excited!
I cannot wait for this game now, cannot wait
 

TiAn_

Norm Smith Medallist
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For those interested here are O'Donnell's advanced stats VFL averages from his 3 matches...

9.0 kicks
82.0% kicking efficiency
6.3 handballs
15.3 disposals
85.3% disposal efficiency
6.0 contested possessions
9.0 uncontested possessions
6.7 marks
0.3 contested marks
2.0 intercept marks
0.3 tackles
2.7 spoils
0.7 inside 50s
2.0 rebound 50s
1.0 score launches
1.3 score involements
72.0 ranking points/supercoach

Thanks mate.

Do you have Busslinger’s for comparison?
 

Next Waiting

Norm Smith Medallist
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Very interesting

Part of me says late change...but if not i suspect its play a 7th defender on the wing and have the usual defender on the bench at all times. Which happens for every said anyway and this results in a loose in front of Curnow.

I think Liam Jones would be the best loose

A Curnow/Mackay/JOS/pitt is off the ground for 55% of the game. So all 4 are on field at the same time for 45%

This 45% they will want all 4 tall dog defenders. 3 manned up with 1 free. The other 55% time theyll be fine with 3 on field.

L.Jones 100% TOG
Keath 90%
Gardner 90%
JOD 65%

The 200% Total from the 2 wingers. 45% it will be a defender tall or small to allow for the 4 Tall DEFs on field at the one time as mentioned above. Means theres 155% for Baker and B.Williams (77.5% TOG each). 22.5% each for BWill and Baker will be with a defender starting on the other wing. 55% will be with eachother on the wings.

Between the 2 wing and 6 Def starting positions = 800%

L.Jones -100
Keath -90
Gardner -90
JOD -65
Baker -77.5
B.Williams -77.5
= 300% leftover

75% TOG each for JJ, Doc, Ed, B.Dale

So maybe he is just playing a loose and leaving a carlton spare
Could we have this in a spreadsheet format with a pie chart for the visuals please?
 

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Charlie Bucket

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If we see him as a long term intercept player, I think it’s likely we’ll adjust to allow him to play the loose role much like Darcy did against Freo last year. Ease him in, build some confidence.

Can’t imagine we’ll be throwing him to the wolves expecting a shut down role.
 

doggies ftw

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The team lineup really doesn’t make sense at the moment. Carlton have only two key forwards and we have Gardner on the bench. Absolutely no idea who our 3rd KPD is going to line up on given the rest of Carlton’s forward line are genuine smalls.

O’Donnell has an obvious matchup with Silvagni first up. It would be ridiculous to play him anywhere other than where he’s played at VFL level.
I’m not sure how we will line up but gut feel is it’s just us conceding we have to compromise our own game to beat Carlton in the air in defence - which I’m happy to see us actually take into consideration the match up at hand for once.

I’d think Jones takes deepest of Curnow/McKay all day and Gards takes the one up the ground - leaves at least one of Keath & JOD always available to provide some aerial coverage. Really if we shut them down in the air their smalls aren’t much chop, we really should win IF we can shut them down, but going the other way if we play 4 talls and they still dominate the air inside 50 we’re probably ****ed.

Idk kinda okay to see us try something different if we’ve got a genuine plan coming in. Whilst midfield pressure should obviously be key every week I think we’re gonna see a huge emphasis on it this week, we need to be all over them forcing long, high kicks and we should be able to pick them off with this defence - will work great if we pull it off in the middle IMO
 
Sep 27, 2011
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Has O'Donnell been any better than Busslinger the last 3 vfl games?
I watched his debut against Southport 3 weeks back and he was way ahead of the Buss in that game. Buss needs time to adapt playing with men IMO, but very happy with his progress.
 
Sep 27, 2011
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The last time we debuted 2 players against Carlton about 3-4 years ago, we got smashed by 45 points. Why wouldn’t he wait till next week or the week after? This week is huge for our year. We win, we possibly look at top 4 this year. We lose, and we’re back to being a mid table side with our usual problems. Seriously if we do lose it, the current selection committee really need to be looked at.
Am I missing something, who is the second player that will debut this week? Also if memory serves me correctly Lewis Youg debuted against Carlton back in 2017 and we won? Personally I don't think we'll win or lose on the back of this selection, however the stradegdy behind it could play a big part :)
 

The Slitherin' Snake

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I’m not sure how we will line up but gut feel is it’s just us conceding we have to compromise our own game to beat Carlton in the air in defence - which I’m happy to see us actually take into consideration the match up at hand for once.

I’d think Jones takes deepest of Curnow/McKay all day and Gards takes the one up the ground - leaves at least one of Keath & JOD always available to provide some aerial coverage. Really if we shut them down in the air their smalls aren’t much chop, we really should win IF we can shut them down, but going the other way if we play 4 talls and they still dominate the air inside 50 we’re probably ****ed.

Idk kinda okay to see us try something different if we’ve got a genuine plan coming in. Whilst midfield pressure should obviously be key every week I think we’re gonna see a huge emphasis on it this week, we need to be all over them forcing long, high kicks and we should be able to pick them off with this defence - will work great if we pull it off in the middle IMO
This. Its such a strange selection that it leads me to believe we've developed a specific gameplan for Carlton this week. Last time we actually change dour game style for a specific opponent was against Melbourne last year
 
I watched his debut against Southport 3 weeks back and he was way ahead of the Buss in that game. Buss needs time to adapt playing with men IMO, but very happy with his progress.

I think too many people are wanting him rushed in as he was a high draft pick etc, but it’s like they forget he’s coming from a little behind with some pretty serious shoulder surgery. Will need more strength to be able to hold his own at AFL level, next season at the earliest IMO
 

doggies ftw

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I think too many people are wanting him rushed in as he was a high draft pick etc, but it’s like they forget he’s coming from a little behind with some pretty serious shoulder surgery. Will need more strength to be able to hold his own at AFL level, next season at the earliest IMO
He was brilliant on the weekend, I don’t see any reason he couldn’t play a few games as a 3rd tall later in the year.

Personally I wouldn’t waste games on TOB over him currently as things stand
 

St 07

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Toby McLean should be focusing on dropping 5kgs and getting his running capacity back on track, I know he’s recovering from brutal injuries and that sucks but he’s just not at the level required right now, he’s had more than enough chances this year
Exactly right. He is heading in the Mitch Wallis direction
 
Sep 27, 2011
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This. Its such a strange selection that it leads me to believe we've developed a specific gameplan for Carlton this week. Last time we actually change dour game style for a specific opponent was against Melbourne last year
100% the stradegdy behind selection is the key. CAn't wait to see what it is and how it unfolds.
 

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