Preview Changes vs Carlton

[Docker79]

Still a chance to make finals Banker...obviously not a great record and % wise at the moment but bloody hell... Richmond did it a few years back after a slow start to finish the h&a with 9 wins in a row lol...second half of year (further injuries pending) we should have our top tier players hopefully all on the park eg. Sandi, Bennell

Yeah its interesting, some what disappointed inside that this season is a write off so early.

For me a successful season would be a top 8 finish, which will set us up nicely next year. Its going to be hard, but if we do it will be pumped as we will have players that are skilled.

 

[wayToGo_]

So 4 games in gives us a little bit of data to analyse so I decided to run some numbers to see if it correlated with what we are being told and what some of us have been thinking about why we are doing so poorly.

Compared to last year, looking only at the players that have played this year, our turnovers by our midfielders and forwards has actually gone down so far in the first 4 games of 2016. But our defenders have turned it over a heap more. It (crudely) works out to about an extra 5 turnovers per game on average or a 25% increase in turnovers from our defenders. I don't personally think all of our defenders have suddenly become rubbish but there is obviously a problem there that needs to be resolved. Whether it's pressure, or a lack of options to kick to down field, our defenders clearly aren't making good choices to transition out of defence.

But the most telling thing I could find is our disposal efficiency and primarily by our midfielders. We are down by more than 35 effective disposals on average per game just from our midfielders. That is enormous! Meanwhile our defenders and forwards are pretty similar (very slightly down) from last year. This is clearly the difference between us dominating games and not even getting wins on the board. It's not just about the volume of disposals but more so the efficiency and effectiveness of those disposals.

We are up with our metres gained, especially by our defenders and midfield so the new attacking game plan is also having somewhat of a positive impact. But we are also down on our inside 50 entries, no doubt because of poor delivery, which isn't great.

There are obviously some issues that need to be addressed for us to start winning again but I think absolutely everything points to our disposals. Clean those up and everything is as good or better than last year, and we'll start winning plenty again.

 

[clivenator26]

Ed to be held over, if we get rain we may go in with the 1 ruck only.

 

[StingBitten]

So 4 games in gives us a little bit of data to analyse so I decided to run some numbers to see if it correlated with what we are being told and what some of us have been thinking about why we are doing so poorly.

Compared to last year, looking only at the players that have played this year, our turnovers by our midfielders and forwards has actually gone down so far in the first 4 games of 2016. But our defenders have turned it over a heap more. It (crudely) works out to about an extra 5 turnovers per game on average or a 25% increase in turnovers from our defenders. I don't personally think all of our defenders have suddenly become rubbish but there is obviously a problem there that needs to be resolved. Whether it's pressure, or a lack of options to kick to down field, our defenders clearly aren't making good choices to transition out of defence.

But the most telling thing I could find is our disposal efficiency and primarily by our midfielders. We are down by more than 100 effective disposals on average per game just from our midfielders. That is enormous! Meanwhile our defenders and forwards are pretty similar (very slightly down) from last year. This is clearly the difference between us dominating games and not even getting wins on the board. It's not just about the volume of disposals but more so the efficiency and effectiveness of those disposals.

We are up with our metres gained, especially by our defenders and midfield so the new attacking game plan is also having somewhat of a positive impact. But we are also down on our inside 50 entries, no doubt because of poor delivery, which isn't great.

There are obviously some issues that need to be addressed for us to start winning again but I think absolutely everything points to our disposals. Clean those up and everything is as good or better than last year, and we'll start winning plenty again.

30 of those are Suban and Ibbotson combined so we're due to look a little better. Only issue another 30 comes from D. Pearce and Barlow whom are in the side.

Oh well slowly but surely.

 

[meima]

30 of those are Suban and Ibbotson combined so we're due to look a little better. Only issue another 30 comes from D. Pearce and Barlow whom are in the side.

Oh well slowly but surely.

Well Barlow at least we know his kick is always no good, but D.Pearce will always be under pressure biggest we get him because of speed and kicking.

 

[wayToGo_]

30 of those are Suban and Ibbotson combined so we're due to look a little better. Only issue another 30 comes from D. Pearce and Barlow whom are in the side.

Oh well slowly but surely.

You may actually be surprised that the scapegoats on here aren't the worst offenders. Our entire team is struggling with effective disposals. And every one of our defenders is averaging more turnovers than last year except for Johnson (Sutcliffe and Sheridan have huge turnover numbers, Ibbo and Spurr not much better - Clancee better than them all). Hill and Mundy have two of worst DE% in our team, and both also aren't getting as much of the ball either. Replacing our fringe isn't going to solve the problem - it's something we need to do though. But to win games we need our experienced players to get back to their usual levels.

 

[Docker79]

Barra and my buddy Hilly being normally two of our best kicks are definitely down on their high standards no doubt.

Don't think Clancee's knock is his precision but rather his indecisiveness in moving the ball...seems to take an eternity hence why his efficiency is probably better but that doesn't help if the opp floods back to man up. When I watch him it just seems like he's so worried about being offensive and doesn't back himself in cause any mistake will send him to the magoos. Back in 2013 he was such an accurate and offensive kick...bring back that Clancee!

Have commented more than enough on various posts about D Pearce so won't add anything further...certainly don't have anything against him as a bloke but his form (for a seasoned player) has been crap and should be on the line soon for WAFL duties if there's no change.

Sutty just seems to have the yips. Good runner but kicking has been inconsistent and unfortunately, costly with his turnovers. I'd have him borderline too to gain some form soon, otherwise find some in the WAFL. Have already expressed major concerns about him defensively 1on1. Can imagine someone like Betts or Rioli completely tearing it up against him...

For these reasons its good to see some changes coming through.

Grey - if his efforts on Wingard last year is anything to go by, is much better locking down on dangerous smalls defensively
Tucker - good kick and maturity for his age

Don't doubt that both will have some clangers but it's a positive move to get them experience cause they're part of our future in building success.

Its a combo of quick and accurate ball movement which our boys need to improve on.

QUOTE="wayToGo_, post: 44058275, member: 167849"]You may actually be surprised that the scapegoats on here aren't the worst offenders. Our entire team is struggling with effective disposals. And every one of our defenders is averaging more turnovers than last year except for Johnson (Sutcliffe and Sheridan have huge turnover numbers, Ibbo and Spurr not much better - Clancee better than them all). Hill and Mundy have two of worst DE% in our team, and both also aren't getting as much of the ball either. Replacing our fringe isn't going to solve the problem - it's something we need to do though. But to win games we need our experienced players to get back to their usual levels.[/QUOTE]

 

[derPy]

if it is raining a lot i reckon suban and ibbo will both be in for clarke and taberner

 

[estibador]

Yep, first time. He last played WAFL in 2010.

Nope, he was dropped for three separate stints in the WAFL in Lyon's first year.

http://www.wafl.com.au/players/view/2094

 

[meima]

Handball and kicking to your teammate with opposition closing on them might get yourself disposal effienciecy but not your teamate regarding stats. Just for Carlton match forget the footsoldiers and celebrate a.Pearce and Brady playing together first time at subi and Tucker debut.

 

[wayToGo_]

Handball and kicking to your teammate with opposition closing on them might get yourself disposal effienciecy but not your teamate regarding stats.

Yeah unfortunately I don't have access to retention rates (for this year). But comparing output from last year to this year gives some indication of "form" at least.

I just had another look at the numbers and it is really clear the only pass marks in our midfield are Fyfe, Neale and Weller. The rest, especially Mundy, Hill, Barlow and D.Pearce really need to improve drastically. From a purely stats perspective, Griffin has been serviceable the last couple of games but Sandi, Clarke and him are all a fair bit down on the output around the ground from last year.

On a positive note Weller's stats have improved considerably from last year so far -> +104 metres gained, +4.5 score involvements, +0.5 goal assists, +2.2 contested possessions, -2.4 turnovers, DE% down but same number of effective disposals. Lots of good signs for his development.

Langdon also did a lot more than I thought he had - if he can up his disposal numbers and become more damaging with his possessions when he breaks back in to the side he could become pretty indispensable pretty quickly. He has clearly improved from last year but still has a way to go.

Ballantyne is on the improve from last year, his DE% has gone leaps and bounds from last year (+20%). I'm actually surprised they haven't tried him out in the middle again because his contested ball winning is also up a fair bit from 2015. I've been critical of his defensive pressure, so some time in the centre might help that as well.

I also see light at the end of the tunnel for Crozier. As much as he was hardly seen, he was effective when he did touch the ball and surprisingly to me, was involved in quite a few scores. Admittedly coming from a low base comparison last year. Hopefully he gets amongst it more this weekend because I think he could add a lot of value if he improves on last week.

The stats for the rest of our forwards are a mixed bag. Pav, Walters and Mayne are all down on last year but not as much as I thought. Tabs stats match his erratic play style, seems to improve in some areas, but get worse in others.

After looking at the stats I am still surprised Ibbo was dropped over Sutty. Every one of our defenders is down on last year except Alex Pearce and perhaps Sheridan. Although Spurr and Dawson almost break even with their output from 2015. But with so many turnovers, Mora and Hughes must have a good case to come in as soon as they are ready. Clancee would actually have a case as well.

 

[BlueJet]

Rapt to see Tucker getting called up for his first game, he''s a quality young bloke.

 

[meima]

wayToGo_, I think you need to forget the stats of all those year that got the sub rule. Injury , match up, strategies play a lot in it. I am so happy with the sub rule gone, and the out of bounds/ rush behind rule in ,afl going to look at endurance, hard, skillfully player instead of role player. If umpire decision keep favouring hawthorn or Geelong sooner or later it will become like FiFA a corruption team will be setup, St kilda , bulldog and Adelaide show that Hawks game plan can be crack .

 

[Scham]

wayToGo_, I think you need to forget the stats of all those year that got the sub rule. Injury , match up, strategies play a lot in it. I am so happy with the sub rule gone, and the out of bounds/ rush behind rule in ,afl going to look at endurance, hard, skillfully player instead of role player. If umpire decision keep favouring hawthorn or Geelong sooner or later it will become like FiFA a corruption team will be setup, St kilda , bulldog and Adelaide show that Hawks game plan can be crack .

Just for get stats all together I reckon. There are so many variables that affect the data.

Especially disposal efficiency.

Take for example in round 2, Barlow takes a beautiful mark on our half back line, Mzungu runs past for the handball, Barlow handballs it behind him so Mz has to pivot back to catch the ball which he does so even though it was a f****** s**t handball it's an effective disposal to Barlow. Now Mz has lost all momentum because of the bad handball and is now under extreme pressure from the guy that was 3m behind him and is now right on his hammer due to the bad handball, he's tackled but gets a handball away which is intercepted. Ineffective disposal to Mz through no fault of his own.

 

[Docker79]

Some great insights

Only thing I'd say is for Clancee to be considered is for him to be more confident ie. Decisive, and offensive with his kicking like he was in 2013.

Yeah unfortunately I don't have access to retention rates (for this year). But comparing output from last year to this year gives some indication of "form" at least.

I just had another look at the numbers and it is really clear the only pass marks in our midfield are Fyfe, Neale and Weller. The rest, especially Mundy, Hill, Barlow and D.Pearce really need to improve drastically. From a purely stats perspective, Griffin has been serviceable the last couple of games but Sandi, Clarke and him are all a fair bit down on the output around the ground from last year.

On a positive note Weller's stats have improved considerably from last year so far -> +104 metres gained, +4.5 score involvements, +0.5 goal assists, +2.2 contested possessions, -2.4 turnovers, DE% down but same number of effective disposals. Lots of good signs for his development.

Langdon also did a lot more than I thought he had - if he can up his disposal numbers and become more damaging with his possessions when he breaks back in to the side he could become pretty indispensable pretty quickly. He has clearly improved from last year but still has a way to go.

Ballantyne is on the improve from last year, his DE% has gone leaps and bounds from last year (+20%). I'm actually surprised they haven't tried him out in the middle again because his contested ball winning is also up a fair bit from 2015. I've been critical of his defensive pressure, so some time in the centre might help that as well.

I also see light at the end of the tunnel for Crozier. As much as he was hardly seen, he was effective when he did touch the ball and surprisingly to me, was involved in quite a few scores. Admittedly coming from a low base comparison last year. Hopefully he gets amongst it more this weekend because I think he could add a lot of value if he improves on last week.

The stats for the rest of our forwards are a mixed bag. Pav, Walters and Mayne are all down on last year but not as much as I thought. Tabs stats match his erratic play style, seems to improve in some areas, but get worse in others.

After looking at the stats I am still surprised Ibbo was dropped over Sutty. Every one of our defenders is down on last year except Alex Pearce and perhaps Sheridan. Although Spurr and Dawson almost break even with their output from 2015. But with so many turnovers, Mora and Hughes must have a good case to come in as soon as they are ready. Clancee would actually have a case as well.

 

[meima]

Just for get stats all together I reckon. There are so many variables that affect the data.

Especially disposal efficiency.

Take for example in round 2, Barlow takes a beautiful mark on our half back line, Mzungu runs past for the handball, Barlow handballs it behind him so Mz has to pivot back to catch the ball which he does so even though it was a f****** s**t handball it's an effective disposal to Barlow. Now Mz has lost all momentum because of the bad handball and is now under extreme pressure from the guy that was 3m behind him and is now right on his hammer due to the bad handball, he's tackled but gets a handball away which is intercepted. Ineffective disposal to Mz through no fault of his own.

Can't agree more ,

A rush behind, Sheriden, C.Pearce all wait for opposition to setup and kick to boundary for ruck or somebody to mark , once teammate touch it is consider effective disposal. That is the reason hills play so bad this year.

 

[wayToGo_]

Some great insights

Only thing I'd say is for Clancee to be considered is for him to be more confident ie. Decisive, and offensive with his kicking like he was in 2013.

Yeah completely agree about Clancee. Presented just as stats to give some insights. There is plenty more you need to have along side in order to make decisions.

Just for get stats all together I reckon. There are so many variables that affect the data.

You can't disregard stats just because in one instance they perhaps could have been recorded in a misleading way. Like when they are used anywhere, if you have a big enough sample size (ie through a full game and preferably over a number of games) they rarely lie. Certainly a lot less than people's recollections of what actually happened. Most people couldn't even remember who Suban was playing on less than an hour after last week's game. How is their opinion therefore justified as reliable either? Sure there is some bias in stats (as they have t be simplified for human consumption) but I'd argue there is far more bias in people's opinions and assessments. Join the two together, plus a few other bits and pieces and the insights are a lot more trustworthy than either in isolation.

 

[Bicks]

Great to see "local" Horsham/Ballarat lad Darcy Tucker getting his first taste of AFL for you guys, quality young man and I'm sure he'll do you proud, look forward to following his career as it develops.

 

[meima]

You can't disregard

You can because of the sub and deliberate out and rush behind rule,no doubt we are working on it , footsoldiers get away with it last time because pav, fyfe ,hills and sandi been carry them for so long for stoppage and boundary throw in . player just kick near to the boundary and let Sandi win the ruck after that. Opposition now rebound quickly that Dawson can't even got time to set up in defense . watch last night game again you will understand more what I am saying . hawthorn don't leak that much of goal last few season until now.

 

[kingswood71]

I am not all that unhappy about the selections to be honest....I like Suban and hope he can actually show some form for Peel. He is an odd player...Not great skills for a mid-fielder, but throws his body around (giving away more free kicks than he gets!)....Shame the tagger role is dying out a bit, he likely would have made a good one.
Hopefully Tabs stays closer to goal this week....Would like to see a few more strong leads and chest marks!!
Looking forward to seeing Tucker and Grey in action, although if it rains I wouldnt be surprised to see one out and Suban in !

 

[meima]

I am not all that unhappy about the selections to be honest....I like Suban and hope he can actually show some form for Peel. He is an odd player...Not great skills for a mid-fielder, but throws his body around (giving away more free kicks than he gets!)....Shame the tagger role is dying out a bit, he likely would have made a good one.
Hopefully Tabs stays closer to goal this week....Would like to see a few more strong leads and chest marks!!
Looking forward to seeing Tucker and Grey in action, although if it rains I wouldnt be surprised to see one out and Suban in !

Oh noooo
I will be back- subinator

 

[Righteo]

Rapt to see Tucker getting called up for his first game, he''s a quality young bloke.

Great to see "local" Horsham/Ballarat lad Darcy Tucker getting his first taste of AFL for you guys, quality young man and I'm sure he'll do you proud, look forward to following his career as it develops.

The talent manager at the Rebels, Phil Partington, reckons that in his 10 years there Darcy is the most professional kid he's seen. I'm super excited to see him and I reckon from the needs he fills for us (good kicking and pace), his professionalism and the fact he's actually pretty well-built fora 19yo outside mid he's a chance to cement his spot in the team.

 

[kingswood71]

wrong Darcy Tucker....But We need this one !!!

 

[beetz]

You can because of the sub and deliberate out and rush behind rule,no doubt we are working on it , footsoldiers get away with it last time because pav, fyfe ,hills and sandi been carry them for so long for stoppage and boundary throw in . player just kick near to the boundary and let Sandi win the ruck after that. Opposition now rebound quickly that Dawson can't even got time to set up in defense . watch last night game again you will understand more what I am saying . hawthorn don't leak that much of goal last few season until now.

Sub rule only affects those who were sub. The other new rules would have A very minimal effect on stats also.

However, I think stats are over done. All these experts on fox footy etc are trying to make footy an exact science when really all they're doing is throwing Sh!t at the wall and hoping some sticks.

 

[FreoRicci]

Suban, Mzungu, De Boer and Langdon playing for Peel today. Ibbotson looks like he's the emergency.