Prediction Changes vs Collingwood 1st Elim Final @ Optus SATURDAY 3rd OCT 6.10PM WST

[DickDunn]

So who do we want?

First preference for me is Melbourne - then probably St Kilda. Then probably the Dogs - I think we can beat them with NN and a break. GWS know how to win finals - so ideally not them and ditto for Collingwood who will be a much much different team than what we smashed by 10 goals.

Port at Adelaide Oval.

But if results don't go our way I'd take St Kilda over Melbourne. Sure the Dees are flaky and a terrible club overall but at least they have someone capable of being a matchwinner in Petracca which is more than can be said for the Saints

 

[Altum Volantes]

Ironically it’s probably St Kilda-GWS that will shape it for us, along with Melbourne-Essendon.

If the Giants can get up tomorrow we should avoid Collingwood.

 

[EagleEgo]

Based on current Betting Odds published for R18, the estimated probability of the Eagles at Top 4 = 38%.
(note: it is the view of the gamblers/punters as the source data are from the betting odds)

 

[swingdog]

Agreed hes ahead of Petrol/Ainsworth.

Quiet frankly a better marker and someone who will not get overawed in a final. Upgrade to hutch.

Maybe he and Ainsworth can share a tagging / run with role on whoever we see as a danger (e.g. I wouldn't be putting Ainsworth on Dusty).

 

[ziad]

Maybe he and Ainsworth can share a tagging / run with role on whoever we see as a danger (e.g. I wouldn't be putting Ainsworth on Dusty).

I wouldn't waste Ainsworth either we need his scoring power.

 

[JohnW]

Out: Foley, Williams, Petruccelle
In: Shuey, Redden, Cripps

B: Sheppard, Schofield, Hurn
HB: Nelson, Barrass, Cole
C: Gaff, Kelly, Duggan
HF: Waterman, Darling, Cripps
F: Ryan, Kennedy, Ah Chee
R: Naitanui, Shuey, Sheed
I: Rotham, Allen, Redden, Ainsworth
E: Williams, Petruccelle, Jetta, O’Neill

100% Williams to remain if JK misses

 

[bh90210fan]

One thing I’ve been wondering, are any other teams training with soapy balls? Seems like juggling a cake of soap at training is translating into match day. Not sure why they just don’t train at night instead

 

[Chris_6678]

One thing I’ve been wondering, are any other teams training with soapy balls? Seems like juggling a cake of soap at training is translating into match day. Not sure why they just don’t train at night instead

Collingwood using baby oil.

 

[Pottering]

I wonder if Petruccelle might benefit from being in the same side as Cripps, where he can be more easily directed in a more traditional forward line. I still think the team balance is wrong up forward with too many talls, especially if Williams is playing back up ruck.

Our forward line is tall because apart from Ryan and Cripps all the other small forwards we've tried this year have contributed zero output. We're better off with guys who deliver something, even if it means we are nominally too tall. At least it challenges other teams; do they try and match our height or do they go in "undersized" and try to run the ball out when it hits the ground.

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

So who do we want?

Port

 

[The wily weagle]

Depending on our opponent and subsequent match ups, i would be almost tempted to leave Petch in the side at the expense of Ainsworth.

Lets be blunt: last night Petch wasn't much good.

Ainsworth showed a bit more

But, both can play a role based on need.

Ainsworth has shown he is more then capable of performing a shut down job/run with role.

Petch adds some much needed line breaking pace to a side thats looking very heavy in the legs atm.

If breaking lines if a requirement, we keep Petch. And if we have an opposition halfback who needs negating, we keep Ainsworth.

Will be interesting to see how the other results fall over the weekend

 

[Altum Volantes]

Port

Yeah yeah...OR maybe they BOTH lose and we get BRISBANE?!

It’s not happening..

Depending on our opponent and subsequent match ups, i would be almost tempted to leave Petch in the side at the expense of Ainsworth.

Petch looks an absolute mile off. I don’t doubt it has to do with the long term injury and lack of match practice but he can’t be carried into the finals.

The only possible role I can see him playing right now is as a deep forward crumber.

Ainsworth has at least shown some skill in a negating role but I suspect will be brushed aside by better teams/players if we go past week 1.

More I think of it, they are both out and Hutch gets the nod.

 

[Shaks]

Perhaps we have to change our game plan. Finals will more than likely be played in dewy conditions. We need to focus on winning contested ball. Our control game doesn't work in those conditions.

 

[RookiePick]

Can't take Hutch in IMO. Body too unreliable, has to show he can hold up in the seconds unfortunately. Plus we'll have others returning from leg injuries...could be an unmitigated disaster.

Ah Chee...he's what Venables would be if Venners never developed any further than he did when we lost him to concussion.

 

[swingdog]

Collingwood using baby oil.

I was thinking as I was watching that abomination of a game last night, perhaps the AFL needs balls with better grip. Not Velcro but you know what I mean.

Alternatively would gloves make any difference?

 

[Chris_6678]

Petch has come back from a serious hammy injury and hasn't exactly had much match practice. This lack of WAFL games has hurt players like Petch and Cameron who need that game time in the WAFL to build fitness for an AFL game.

Cripps back is massive. He will be fit and important cog to that forward line.

JK's ankle didn't look that bad so id expect him to back it up.

Gov i think is 50/50 and doubt he will be risked.

Not sure Jetta has done enough to be a part of the forward line if Cripps is back. We have a lot of defenders so not sure he can fit down there.

Hutchings meh. He hasn't been that good since 2018 GF. I have been rough of Ainsworth but he plays his role well do he can stay and do a tagging role if needed.

Foley didn't get much of a chance but thats fine he is a first gamer. Williams stays is JK doesn't get up , lot to like about him.

Out: Foley, Petch, Williams
In: Shuey, Cripps, Redden



Shep Schofield Rotham
Hurn Barrass Nelson

Gaff Duggan Sheed

Ah Chee Darling Waterman
Ryan JK Cripps

Ruck: Nic Nat Shuey Kelly

Bench: Redden, Cole, Allen, Ainsworth

 

[06Premiers]

Petch has come back from a serious hammy injury and hasn't exactly had much match practice. This lack of WAFL games has hurt players like Petch and Cameron who need that game time in the WAFL to build fitness for an AFL game.

Cripps back is massive. He will be fit and important cog to that forward line.

JK's ankle didn't look that bad so id expect him to back it up.

Gov i think is 50/50 and doubt he will be risked.

Not sure Jetta has done enough to be a part of the forward line if Cripps is back. We have a lot of defenders so not sure he can fit down there.

Hutchings meh. He hasn't been that good since 2018 GF. I have been rough of Ainsworth but he plays his role well do he can stay and do a tagging role if needed.

Foley didn't get much of a chance but thats fine he is a first gamer. Williams stays is JK doesn't get up , lot to like about him.

Out: Foley, Petch, Williams
In: Shuey, Cripps, Redden



Shep Schofield Rotham
Hurn Barrass Nelson

Gaff Duggan Sheed

Ah Chee Darling Waterman
Ryan JK Cripps

Ruck: Nic Nat Shuey Kelly

Bench: Redden, Cole, Allen, Ainsworth

Agree with all of this, and pretty obvious too.
For that reason, I'm predicting none of this to happen.

 

[RookiePick]

JK's ankle...looked like he almost went over on it several times before he actually tweaked it. Definite carry over from the limp vs st Kilda.

 

[bh90210fan]

In: Shuey, Redden, Cripps, Jetta
Out: Foley, Petruccelle, Ainsworth, Williams

Hurn, Schofield, Sheppard
Nelson, Barrass, Cole
Sheed, Shuey, Gaff
Waterman, Darling, Cripps
Ryan, Kennedy, Allen
Naitanui, Kelly, Redden
Rotham, Duggan, Jetta, AhChee

Duggan to play midfield, with Jetta to come in and play a forward role. He’s worth a punt for us as he can break a game open and I think we’re going to need him if we’re going to give it a shake

 

[bh90210fan]

I was thinking as I was watching that abomination of a game last night, perhaps the AFL needs balls with better grip. Not Velcro but you know what I mean.

Alternatively would gloves make any difference?

Most other teams we’ve come up against have handled the conditions fine. Seems odd we’ve gone to the extent of trying to simulate the night conditions when we can just train in them. If the guys are fumbling balls all over the place at practice I’m not surprised to see them struggle during the match

 

[Grahame]

Duggan to play midfield, with Jetta to come in and play a forward role. He’s worth a punt for us as he can break a game open and I think we’re going to need him if we’re going to give it a shake

Agree about Jetta - he has solid forward experience in a premiership side. Ah Chee and Petro only give about as much as Jetta does on a bad night, and his upside is huge.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Most other teams we’ve come up against have handled the conditions fine. Seems odd we’ve gone to the extent of trying to simulate the night conditions when we can just train in them. If the guys are fumbling balls all over the place at practice I’m not surprised to see them struggle during the match

Not just us trying to simulate the conditions at practice.

 

[JohnW]

In: Shuey, Redden, Cripps, Jetta
Out: Foley, Petruccelle, Ainsworth, Williams

Hurn, Schofield, Sheppard
Nelson, Barrass, Cole
Sheed, Shuey, Gaff
Waterman, Darling, Cripps
Ryan, Kennedy, Allen
Naitanui, Kelly, Redden
Rotham, Duggan, Jetta, AhChee

Duggan to play midfield, with Jetta to come in and play a forward role. He’s worth a punt for us as he can break a game open and I think we’re going to need him if we’re going to give it a shake

If jetta is in for mine it has to be at half back.

Hasn't had much great impact forward of center for many years.

Can tear games apart setting us up from half back, to me thats his role in this team and he is either in it out out of the team.

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

In: Shuey, Cripps, Redden, Jetta

Out: Foley, Ainsworth, Williams, Petruccelle

Every team needs a bit of x-factor in the finals and Jetta has that. Considering how clean he is with the ball, especially off the ground, I would pick him.

 

[Hell Yeoh]

OUT: AH CHEE
IN: anyone else

Seriously tired of his efforts errors ... unrealistic flying, spoils teammate efforts.

sure he’s a nice guy... But nope, total liability.