Prediction Changes vs Dees round 19

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Wetdog

I really am Aker.
Jun 23, 2008
2,174
3,852
Williamstown
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Western Bulldogs
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Melbourne Victory
You’re a relentless defender of the club BL, but I love it. Much rather read your posting than those that want to sh*t all over it.

Enjoy the rest of the season. Go dogs!!

For as long as I’ve been on BF (13 years), there has been a battle between the clans known as the optimists and the pessimists.

You see this everywhere in life.

Bevo is an optimist. And there is something to learn from that.
 

Wetdog

I really am Aker.
Jun 23, 2008
2,174
3,852
Williamstown
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Melbourne Victory
Interesting match up this one. A 50/50 game.

Midfields are evenly matched.

Our forward line is very good. Their defence is very good.

Our defence is serviceable. Their forward line is serviceable.

Who works the hardest and applies enough pressure around the contest will win.

Apologies for the over simplification but sometimes keeping things simple is best.

Go dogs!
 

Mattdougie

Cancelled
Jun 29, 2013
19,344
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This rain will definitely help the tall forward set up.

Hannan should tear it up with his classy touch in wet weather also so can’t see anything other than a 10-15 goal win for us
 

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Optimistic Dog

Club Legend
Oct 11, 2014
2,217
3,730
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For as long as I’ve been on BF (13 years), there has been a battle between the clans known as the optimists and the pessimists.

You see this everywhere in life.

Bevo is an optimist. And there is something to learn from that.

Coming in the season I am an optimist like my username. I felt we a big chance for the flag and still do. I still back our best team especially our midfield to get the job done against anyone. However when we play good opposition without our best team available and then we get weird selections from Bevo I become a lot less optimistic on game day. However often Bevo gets the job done hoping it happens today.
 

Wetdog

I really am Aker.
Jun 23, 2008
2,174
3,852
Williamstown
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Melbourne Victory
This rain will definitely help the tall forward set up.

Hannan should tear it up with his classy touch in wet weather also so can’t see anything other than a 10-15 goal win for us

What’s your 22 from the available squad? And how would you set up and play against the Dees?
 

Whoyagot

All Australian
Sep 18, 2018
739
1,176
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Reckon as controversial as our forward setup is, I think we lose this game in the midfield. Gawn will bully English and Jackson will Bully whoever we have second ruck. On a wet track, stoppage wins are crucial and I just think it’s going to be too hard for us to take territory and put ourselves in a strong enough position to kick a winning score.
 

ScragCity

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 7, 2015
12,670
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Reckon as controversial as our forward setup is, I think we lose this game in the midfield. Gawn will bully English and Jackson will Bully whoever we have second ruck. On a wet track, stoppage wins are crucial and I just think it’s going to be too hard for us to take territory and put ourselves in a strong enough position to kick a winning score.

Our midfield have spent their entire careers playing against the dominant ruck.
 

NthBondiDoggies

All Australian
Jan 18, 2011
772
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North Bondi
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Expect the tall forward line is for two purposes — last game we played May and Lever killed us and not just in our forward entries but how they launched from there to score. By each player playing forward rushing defence they force the opposition to kick over them and this result in a shorter bomb into the middle so on of May/level leaves their player to play in that space and gobble up easy marks - to us it looks like they are kicking to them in open space.

Teams have tried to deal with this by effectively playing a tall in this zone also to even up the numbers. Was working but they adjusted with Petty taking the lose role and he started taking 10+ marks.

So perhaps this is evening up even more - at all times having three on the ground and keeping them fresh. Bruce will play back up ruck for a quarter or more of the game and JUH will need a rest so four makes sense - especially given Schache can run and run and take 50+ shots so if he keeps moving will give us more options to kick to helpfully spread the ground.

Optimistic?

If course would be better not to rush and bomb the ball by adding a mid to get free with handballs but expect Melbourne will expect that. Melbourne have a great midfield but even with Dunkley out we bat deeper and should back our players to beat them in the guts but with Dunkley, Trelor and McLean they look pretty good on paper

Gawn v English

Bont v Petracca

Macrae v Oliver

Libba v Viney

Smith v Brayshaw

Daniel v Jones

García v Harmes

R.Smith v Jordan
 

bresker

Premium Platinum
Sep 21, 2005
10,508
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I wonder how Peter Street or Daniel Bandy would have coped with Gawn. I guess we’ll never actually know the answer to that question , not in this lifetime. But with science being the way it is, there’s a possibility.
 

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Merlins Revenge

Club Legend
May 22, 2011
1,112
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So, 95% chance of rain apparently, but only 1-4 mm. Doesn’t seem like a huge deal to me. Then I saw this:
D94D69F3-FA7C-400F-9FC5-06CB40EA725A.jpeg


Better hope we play the territory game! 😂
 

doggiesin08

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 17, 2007
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Interested in how others feel when watching one of their "whipping boys" play and do something that is not completely horrible.

If the game is not right in the balance and I see Hannan take a contested mark there is a little part of me that thinks "**** his chances of keeping his spot just went up, and that's not good for premiership aspirations on a longer term view". I felt this way a little bit when Wallis kicked his junk time goals against North.

For those who say we'll never win a flag with Schache in the team, would you see him kicking 2 goals this evening as taking us closer to a flag or further away?
 

bresker

Premium Platinum
Sep 21, 2005
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I’ve always wanted Schache to do well, but he shits the bed when he sees his name on the 1s team sheet. He doesn’t believe he belongs there IMHO

I don’t buy into the narrative that he’s weak or soft. VFL isn’t soft, I’ve seen him take hits there.

I’d love him to play well tonight but if he’s anonymous again it will look like a strange selection.
 

Whoyagot

All Australian
Sep 18, 2018
739
1,176
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Our midfield have spent their entire careers playing against the dominant ruck.

Yeah fair call Scrag and I hope we can win the mid battle again but Gawn is a top 2 tap ruck in the comp with Nic Nat. Also I feel like we can often nullify dominance purely because our mids are so much better then most opposition midfields but Melbourne also have a stacked midfield unit that’s equal to the current group we’re fielding (Treloar and dunks would tip this balance in our favour however)
 

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
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Interested in how others feel when watching one of their "whipping boys" play and do something that is not completely horrible.

If the game is not right in the balance and I see Hannan take a contested mark there is a little part of me that thinks "**** his chances of keeping his spot just went up, and that's not good for premiership aspirations on a longer term view". I felt this way a little bit when Wallis kicked his junk time goals against North.

For those who say we'll never win a flag with Schache in the team, would you see him kicking 2 goals this evening as taking us closer to a flag or further away?
Closer ... but then I've never said we can't win a flag with Schache in the team. Nearly every premiership team has a player or two you'd never have expected to be taking home a medallion (eg Fletcher Roberts). I just think it's very unlikely that the name J.Schache will appear on the team list if we make the GF. Emergency at best.

Back to the nub of your question - any player in the squad who improves on his career averages can only be a good thing for us. The one proviso is that it has to become the new minimum standard of performance, not a one-off.

I think MC is smart enough to operate that way, just as they were smart enough to see that Wallis's 3 goals were more a flash in the pan than conclusive proof that he was worth a spot in the side as a forward.

Go Josh!
 

X_box_X

King of September
Mar 15, 2001
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Dees were always hovering around $1.85 all week. We were $1.95-$2.00 so no drastic change.
Betfair isn't like a Bookmaker. It's an exchange. If you can make sense of the below graph, you can see a sudden shift... $2.02 earlier today. Then they came into $1.81, now back out to $1.86. It happened in an instant. Pro's use Betfair so someone knows something.

1627107173143.png
 

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