Preview Changes vs Essendon

Killer Power

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Contested ball time in a game of football is much higher and time consuming at ground level than contested in the air. Always has been and always will be. Be the same this week to. It is contested in the air but to a much smaller stat now than years gone by when it was kick to position and man on man. Just watch any game this weekend they are all the same.
Don't disagree with that and it has changed over the years. However teams can still gain ascendency through dominating in the air and with Dom and Young in we bat very deep on mids, both contested and outside. Taking out Mitchell and replacing him with Clurey would have given us a chance at the first and not impacted very much at all in the second.
 

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Greasyrhys

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Hmm, rather surprised we didn't bring in another defender. But hopefully we can stretch the bombers' defence given they're resting Fletcher.

It's VITAL we win the midfield battle, will go a long way towards getting the win.
 

rumoursofwinter

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I'm strangely happy-ish with the team. Losing Trengove and Bobby is a blow but they are forced changes. Sam Gray was an obvious choice to be dropped. We have included Dom and Young to give us some steel and contested possessions. Oshea would be slightly ahead of Clurey purely because he is more developed. We need another KPF/Ruck but we don't have one. There was no way that Butch was going to be promoted after reading the SANFL report. Shaw has never been an emergency and is in development mode. It's not a perfect team but it should match up well against Essendon and get us a win.
 

Us against the rest

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I like the in's but like a few I'm concerned about our structure. Westhoff will have to be in 3 places at once.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... In Kern we trust!
Pretty much.

Putting the whole "Essendon have gone in small so" thing to one side, would we have dropped a fit Carlile and/or Trengove because they haven't selected Bellchambers?
Spot on
 

itisnt2hard

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Don't disagree with that and it has changed over the years. However teams can still gain ascendency through dominating in the air and with Dom and Young in we bat very deep on mids, both contested and outside. Taking out Mitchell and replacing him with Clurey would have given us a chance at the first and not impacted very much at all in the second.
Depends on the game plan and obviously selections Killer. Pre season with our drafting you could see which direction Kenny was taking. He needed to turn things around real quick in a short amount of time. He chose to think outside the square and come up with something that would take all by surprise and he has done that. Week after week we here the commentators banging on about club x winning the contested ball etc etc etc. But in actual fact the very best sides and the holy grail of being the best is winning playing uncontested football. To be so skilled and so clean that your opponent cant even get near it is the difference. Hawthorn is the benchmark when they are on song and they really are envious to watch when they pull it off. We are gold when we produce one,two or three passages of coast to coast uncontested footy in a game. Now if we could do that more, we win.
 

philreich

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Essendons forward line is their weak point. They don't have a single player that's averaging over 1.3 goals a game. They don't have a single player that's kicked over 20 goals so far this year. Its by far their weak point. Daniher is just ok at this stage of his career, Ambrose is probably below average and Carlisle has had a come down worse than anything he would have had in 2012.

Is Hombsch good enough to stand Carlisle or Daniher? Yes. Is Jonas good enough to stand one of them? Probably. Is O'Shea good enough to stand Ambrose? Absolutely. Maybe as supporters we are over thinking it for this week. The downside for me is here is a perfect chance to get some AFL games into Clurey and we aren't doing it this week. But, they are picking a side they think can win.

If they believe that going in short meaning we have more runners to stop their strong point (midfield) then I respect that decision. Goddard, Heppell, Stanton, Howlett, Chapman, Zaharakis concerns me a hell of a lot more than their forward line do.
To back that up, we've scored 1521 points in 14 games (nearly 109 points per game) to their 1153 (just over 82 points per game). So our forward line is nearly 5 goals per game more effective than theirs. If we kick 100 points on Saturday night - which I'm quietly confident we will with a fanatical crowd behind us, then I reckon we'll bank another 4 points.
 

Ant Bear

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I have no problem with the selections when I look at the matchups with this weeks opponent. Another tall defender may well have been one too many anyway, especially if it is wet as predicted. Trengove probably would have played forward this week if available, so if anything I probably expected Butcher to come in, but to go for the runners against an opponent who has shown no propensity to run out games well, as well as having the 5th-worst attacking record in the comp, seems a reasonable choice.
IMO, If Butcher can't get a game considering the current situation with our injuries, it makes me ponder why he is even on our list.
AS cannon-fodder for Lobbe at training. Der. :D
 

itisnt2hard

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Strangely we are the only side currently in the AFL you wouldnt want to be a tall in. Every other club has the small to mediums fighting for positions whilst most of the talls are automatic selection if available. This year will be a once off only and next year we will see our talls taking more of a focus. We just needed to make something happen in 014 and all involved have done a great job achieving it. Our game plan will change again next year with more time for Butch, Shaw Clurey etc.
 

Portmanteau

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Don't mind these selections. I'd rather Jonas stand certain KPFs when we have a full strength side let alone a makeshift defense. And if O'Shea, (or Broadbent/Pittard) can't take a third tall in one of the worst tall forward lines in the comp, then we might as well fold.

Reminds me of Round 1, 2013.

Bottom line, we've got the players to get the job done. Nothing wrong with putting a bit of heat on some capable players to get play a role.

Also - O'SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


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Portmanteau

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Jack Hombsch: I don't wanna hear about no motherfu**in' ifs. All I wanna hear from your ass is, You ain't got no problem, Jack. I'm on the motherf***er. Go back in there, chill them ******* out and wait for the cavalry which should be coming directly.

Kern: You ain't got no problem, Jack. I'm on the motherf***er. Go back in there, chill them ******* out and wait for O'Sheezy who should be coming directly.



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PJ Power

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Essendons forward line is their weak point. They don't have a single player that's averaging over 1.3 goals a game. They don't have a single player that's kicked over 20 goals so far this year. Its by far their weak point. Daniher is just ok at this stage of his career, Ambrose is probably below average and Carlisle has had a come down worse than anything he would have had in 2012.

Is Hombsch good enough to stand Carlisle or Daniher? Yes. Is Jonas good enough to stand one of them? Probably. Is O'Shea good enough to stand Ambrose? Absolutely. Maybe as supporters we are over thinking it for this week. The downside for me is here is a perfect chance to get some AFL games into Clurey and we aren't doing it this week. But, they are picking a side they think can win.

If they believe that going in short meaning we have more runners to stop their strong point (midfield) then I respect that decision. Goddard, Heppell, Stanton, Howlett, Chapman, Zaharakis concerns me a hell of a lot more than their forward line do.
I recall a game in 2007 when we were flying, when Wakelin missed against the WB at Etihad. I seem to recall us not replacing him with a taller player that game and thinking it's only the WB and they don't have many tall forward threats. I think we got done that day.

Structure is structure regardless of opposition. Crows played a short defence against us last week and it worked, but they played four tall forwards who ended up getting the better of us when we lost a tall defender/ruck.

With the 22 playing, we have no room to move on injuries or the unexpected during the game. If Daniher or Carlile find their form and get a hold of us, we are in real trouble. Likewise if an injury strikes to Hombsch or Jonas.

Given Clurey's much vaunted run and rebound, not to mention hyped up skills, it would not have been unreasonable to let Mitchell go for a few weeks to accommodate him, while we wait for Carlile to come back.

Re the forward line, I think Butcher has pretty much reached the point where Hinkley feels that he has had enough lucky pass opportunities in the past when he was given games (i.e. last year) despite form in SANFL absolutely not demanding it. Hinkley is saying to Butcher that unless he goes out and plays complete footy in the SANFL, an AFL spot won't be his, unless maybe Schulz or Westhoff go down. I understand that to an extent. Butch's relatively ordinary year at SANFL has surprised me a bit, and cut me deep.
 

PJ Power

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I recall a game in 2007 when we were flying, when Wakelin missed against the WB at Etihad. I seem to recall us not replacing him with a taller player that game and thinking it's only the WB and they don't have many tall forward threats. I think we got done that day.

Structure is structure regardless of opposition. Crows played a short defence against us last week and it worked, but they played four tall forwards who ended up getting the better of us when we lost a tall defender/ruck.

With the 22 playing, we have no room to move on injuries or the unexpected during the game. If Daniher or Carlile find their form and get a hold of us, we are in real trouble. Likewise if an injury strikes to Hombsch or Jonas.

Given Clurey's much vaunted run and rebound, not to mention hyped up skills, it would not have been unreasonable to let Mitchell go for a few weeks to accommodate him, while we wait for Carlile to come back.

Re the forward line, I think Butcher has pretty much reached the point where Hinkley feels that he has had enough lucky pass opportunities in the past when he was given games (i.e. last year) despite form in SANFL absolutely not demanding it. Hinkley is saying to Butcher that unless he goes out and plays complete footy in the SANFL, an AFL spot won't be his, unless maybe Schulz or Westhoff go down. I understand that to an extent. Butch's relatively ordinary year at SANFL has surprised me a bit, and cut me deep.
Addit: we clearly didn't learn from the run of five losses we had last year when we refused to replace Trengove with a tall defender for at least the first three of them.
 

Jello_B

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2 dumb things
1 - in Ken we trust and therefore everything he does is correct
2 - season is over based on these selections
Don't like selections at all but think we should still win, how gray or Mitchell are getting a game is beyond me
 

Jello_B

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Who makes us stronger, Clurey or Mitchell? Mitchell. Butcher or Mitchell? Clearly the coaches decided on Mitchell. Its not just about exploiting them, it's about picking the best side we have available. The bonus is this week our concern was we wouldnt be tall enough so we needed to bring in Clurey/Butcher and OShea, but turns out we actually wont be exploited therefore we can actually pick our strongest possible team without the concern re our height.

We can thank Essendon for not exploiting our height and helping us to field a side that plays to our strengths better given our current key position injury crisis.
Mitchell does not make us stronger
 

Pedro59

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Hooker to have 15 intercept marks for the day with Schulz being 2/3v1. Should be an interesting game
O'Shea is currently a better tall defender than Clurey and a better all round player. Clurey is developing but still a while away. O'Shea also only needs to take Ambrose. Jonas played on Daniher last time and kept him to 1 goal and Hombsch can take Carlisle.
Oshea has rebound and brilliant intercept marking
 

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