Changes vs Hawthorn

[Charlie Bucket]

A little patience as we can all assess at seasons end especially with the teams we play on our way home.

it will shed light on many things.

So far we have failed against Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and Geelong (that is a real concern)

We have beaten Sydney (tick)

Games vs North and West Coast help our scoring averages and I would say tactically not much was required due to how bad the opposition were.

Lets wait

Wouldn’t it make sense to discuss the performance of our fwd line up until this point of the season now, rather than at seasons end? If we fall off a cliff from here on in, by all means discuss when relevant.

The losses you mentioned weren’t due to a a fwd line that didn’t function. Besides inaccuracy in the Blues and Tigers games, you’ll have to completely ignore the poor performance of other areas in our games to lay blame on our fwd line.

As for the North and WC games, it’s all relevant. Most other teams have fattened their scores for against both teams. Why would you try to use them to discredit what our forwards have been able to do to this point of the season?

But, if you did want to use those two games as examples...

Averaged across both games, we scored more than any team above us on the ladder against both teams. Individually, only Lions agains North (159 pts to our 139 pts) and Tigers against WC (165 pts to our 162 pts) bettered our scores.

Note: Blues, Tiges, Saints have only played one of those two teams.

That’s a massive win for our ability to put scores on the board and re-iterates my earlier point that our fwd line has functioned incredibly well for most of the season bedsides some poor accuracy.

And if we consider the young, inexperienced or even non fwd half players that have actually played through our fwd line, then I think it’s even more impressive.

 

[Dog 36]

Wouldn’t it make sense to discuss the performance of our fwd line up until this point of the season now, rather than at seasons end? If we fall off a cliff from here on in, by all means discuss when relevant.

The losses you mentioned weren’t due to a a fwd line that didn’t function. Besides inaccuracy in the Blues and Tigers games, you’ll have to completely ignore the poor performance of other areas in our games to lay blame on our fwd line.

As for the North and WC games, it’s all relevant. Most other teams have fattened their scores for against both teams. Why would you try to use them to discredit what our forwards have been able to do to this point of the season?

But, if you did want to use those two games as examples...

Averaged across both games, we scored more than any team above us on the ladder against both teams. Individually, only Lions agains North (159 pts to our 139 pts) and Tigers against WC (165 pts to our 162 pts) bettered our scores.

That’s a massive win for our ability to put scores on the board and re-iterates my earlier point that our fwd line has functioned incredibly well for most of the season bedsides some poor accuracy.

And if we consider the young, inexperienced or even non fwd half players that have actually played through our fwd line, then I think it’s even more impressive.

Was not referring to just forward line alone was referring to a range of things including forward line, backline, tactics etc etc season end will tell.

One measure of how effective a forward line is is accuracy cannot hide from that. How much weight that carries is up for discussion.

I may be harsh but I judge things against teams such as Melbourne, Brisbane, Geelong, Fremantle, Richmond, Carlton, Sydney, St Kilda and to a lesser extent Collingwood, Gold Coast and Port

Hard to get much out of games vs Westcoast, Roos, Essendope apart from % increase for obvious reasons they are rubbish this year.

 

[lachy]

It’s astounding the amount of comments made in here regarding the functionality of our fwd line and the apparent lack of tactical nous from our coaches.

Top 3 for scores for, No 1 for expected score, I’m tipping we’re No1 for shots at goal considering our innacuracy.

We have a key Fwd on track for a 60 goal season, a small/medium forward on track for 40 and 2 mid/fwds on track for 25-30 goal seasons.

As far as individual performances in our fwd line go, we’re on track for our best return since 2016 and as a team, we’re functioning just as well as we were last year when we were one of the best scoring sides in the comp.

I think some posters don’t really think things through before going on the rants they do.

Absolutely CB.

Not sure there is an understanding of what a coach actually does and what players are actually responsible for. I would love to see them if they were actually coaching a team

 

[doggies ftw]

Absolutely CB.

Not sure there is an understanding of what a coach actually does and what players are actually responsible for. I would love to see them if they were actually coaching a team

Mate tbf the Frankston 2s coach could take this side to the finals - our coaching has been a hinderance to our performance this year

 

[theburst]

Bevo saying cody only missing one game....impressive toughness.

good news, and said a few boys still bit ginger, so we're expecting 3 changes, and perhaps another unexpected. Jamarra and Schache keep their spots.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Absolutely CB.

Not sure there is an understanding of what a coach actually does and what players are actually responsible for. I would love to see them if they were actually coaching a team

Case in point...

Mate tbf the Frankston 2s coach could take this side to the finals - our coaching has been a hinderance to our performance this year

 

[dergert]

Imagine if Martin comes in for English.

I'm a masochist

 

[doggies ftw]

Case in point...

Ladies & gents here comes our resident stats guru with his new hot take - fresh off the back of his brilliant in-depth look on raw clearance numbers he’s now here to tell us that our forward line has been great and has put up an interesting view point - number 1 for expected score (yet 9th on the ladder, go figure)

You do realise we spend plus 9+ mins on average per game more than our opposition in our forward half (ranked #2) and have the most inside 50s in the comp.

This shows that our forward line is not overly effective and no it’s not the same as last year as you’ve claimed - actually we’re ranked 9th for overall scores per inside 50 down from 1st last year (* May have changed after last week as I only have up to the bye round) and I’d guess that our goals from inside 50 % would be even lower considering the bad looks we usually are forced to take.

You cannot tell me with a straight face our forward line has been effective this year, our midfield which is the best in the comp by the length of the Flemington straight - makes up for it

 

[Dogsman16]

Hawthorn have named Blanck on debut. Surely Sicily goes to Naughton. Can't put a first gamer on him and Naughton absolutely toweled up Hartigan (when he was at the crows) in 2020.

 

[doggies ftw]

Didn’t hear but my mate was saying there’s a bit of chat about Bedendo possibly being in this week on SEN? Anyone heard?

Would make sense with Cody out we need that bit of something extra, too bland just relying on McComb & McNeil as the smalls

 

[Oliver G]

Oliver Gigacz any chance you have access to stats like - goals per inside 50 %, marks (inside 50) per inside 50 %, intercept marks against, scores against from defensive 50 %.

Things like that would give us a much much better overview of how our forward line has been over old buckets “kick high scores forward line work good” approach

Shots, Goals, Marks Inside 50 From Inside 50s (For)...



Shots, Goals, Marks Inside 50 From Inside 50s (Against)...



D50 Intercept Marks (For / Against)...



Points Sourced From D50 (For / Against)...

 

[Foxman98]

Let me get this straight, a forward line that kicks high scores can’t be considered well performing?

That would have to be the biggest Nuffy statement I’ve read on big footy.

The worst part is we are top 5 for shots and marks inside 50 so he’s asked for stats that make him look even dumber.

Can’t wait for the Bring Sweet and Stef in this week because we play better with 2 ruck debate

 

[Foxman98]

I know, it’s hilarious.

It’s almost as if our issue has been poor turnovers from our Mids/Defenders leaving us vulnerable which the stats there also show as our stats against are woeful

 

[Oliver G]

Our forward line is performing fine, we're ranked 5th for marks inside 50 per inside 50, 4th for shots per inside 50 and 7th for goals per inside 50.

Our worry is at the other end, only West Coast concede more marks inside 50 and we're ranked 16th for conceding scores launched from D50 (differential).

 

[Charlie Bucket]

The worst part is we are top 5 for shots and marks inside 50 so he’s asked for stats that make him look even dumber.

Can’t wait for the Bring Sweet and Stef in this week because we play better with 2 ruck debate

We’re actually 3rd for shots on goal and 2nd for marks.

Massive L for poor doggies ftw

 

[Foxman98]

We’re actually 3rd for shots on goal and 2nd for marks.

Massive L for poor doggies ftw

Imagine asking for stats that prove you to be so very wrong

 

[Foxman98]

Our forward line is performing fine, we're ranked 5th for marks inside 50 per inside 50, 4th for shots per inside 50 and 7th for goals per inside 50.

Our worry is at the other end, only West Coast concede more marks inside 50 and we're ranked 16th for conceding scores launched from D50 (differential).

Out of interest what’s our points against from turnovers this season if possible?

 

[doggies ftw]

Shots, Goals, Marks Inside 50 From Inside 50s (For)...

View attachment 1430131

Shots, Goals, Marks Inside 50 From Inside 50s (Against)...

View attachment 1430135

D50 Intercept Marks (For / Against)...

View attachment 1430137

Points Sourced From D50 (For / Against)...

View attachment 1430138

Great stats thanks - gives us a clearer picture.

So into 3rd for scores per inside 50 % (up from 9th from the week before as we had an insanely high 56% against GWS with the 3 tall structure)

7th for goals per inside 50 - probably lower due to inaccurate kicking and a higher number of low percentage shots but not tooo bad

5th for marks inside 50 % - surprisingly high and a good result for us

Whilst 17th for allowing intercept marks and 18th for points allowed from d50 - and a huge difference to most teams which is a big concern, shows how easy teams are taking it from end to end against us. More down to team defence than adjust the forward line in a nutshell imo, but giving up so many intercept marks is of course going to lead into allowing so many scores from defence

Shows as id expect - some things are working and some things certainly aren’t, overall a pretty middling result.

Would be interesting to see these stats for games we’ve gone with just the 1/2 talls in comparison to games we’ve gone with 3 - as last week with 3 provided a huge outlier.

Anyway gives us a good actual breakdown of how we’re performing - If some people can’t understand there’s more to how a forward line is performing than just scores on the board I can’t help them

 

[Dogsman16]

Our forward line is performing fine, we're ranked 5th for marks inside 50 per inside 50, 4th for shots per inside 50 and 7th for goals per inside 50.

Our worry is at the other end, only West Coast concede more marks inside 50 and we're ranked 16th for conceding scores from launched from D50 (differential).

Could be argued that our forward line issues are papered over due to the mids. Midfielders get a very high percentage of our goals (which is great and every team would love to have that contribution). But we don't get enough out of our 3rd/4th/5th permanent forwards. Forward line is carried on the back of weightman and in particular Naughton. Injuries to options certainly haven't helped and Bruce and JJ both back will help tremendously.

Currently though we haven't got anywhere enough continuity from a 2nd/3rd tall options such as JUH, Schache, Cordy, Buku. They have shown a good patch or two then haven't contributed much.

Your absolutely correct that the real worry is in defensive 50. But theres not many different options we can throw back there. At the very least we can add a 40+ goal forward in Bruce to the forward line, JJ to get more gametime as well. Smith also played the high half forward role like a champion in the finals.

We can get an even better outcome from our forwards due to returning players. The cupboard in defence has little else. I'd go all out to give us every possible advantage in the middle and forward that can get, because our defence certainly looks incapable of getting the job done.

 

[Dog 36]

We have played 5 of the current top 8 and still have three of current top 8 to play

We have won 1 of those 5 that’s the only stat that matters (to me anyway)

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawthorn have named Blanck on debut. Surely Sicily goes to Naughton. Can't put a first gamer on him and Naughton absolutely toweled up Hartigan (when he was at the crows) in 2020.

Hartigan played on him in 2021 and kept him to a goal, though i have no idea if Hartigan goes out or if we play all 3?

Sic can play on him if we need but i reckon we start Blanck on him and put the confidence in the young man.

 

[doggies ftw]

Scores per inside 50% with different forward structures:

2 talls:
35% - Naughty & Cordy (loss)
51% - Naughty & Jamarra (loss)
44% - Naughty & Cordy (win)
33% - Naughty & Buku (loss)

3 talls:
51% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (loss)
46% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (win)
54% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (Norf - win)
42% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (loss)
43% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (loss)
46% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (win)
62% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (win)
63% - Naughty, Buku & Sweet (WCE - win)
56% - Naughty, Schache & Jamarra (win)

Gives us a good idea of how our forward line performs to different structures - obviously a lot of variables not taken into account and teams you’re up against make a big difference of course but as a general overview shows what a lot of people here feel

When we select two genuine forwards in Naughty & Jamarra we’re usually more efficient. We shouldn’t really be going with just the two talls at all as it doesn’t usually work for us and for the most part 2 talls or 3 talls, you really don’t want Cordy down there at all.

1 win 3 losses with 2 talls, 6 wins 2 losses with 3 talls.

Also it’s a *fest of a revolving door week to week

 

[hoianbulldog]

We have played 5 of the current top 8 and still have three of current top 8 to play

We have won 1 of those 5 that’s the only stat that matters (to me anyway)

We have 6 straight against current top 8 on the way home. If we make top 8 from here we will probably win it.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Sicily trying to defend Naughton 1 v. 1 is a win for us. Absolute weapon Sicily but he’ll be less damaging if given a job and not allowed to roam free.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Scores per inside 50% with different forward structures:

2 talls:
35% - Naughty & Cordy (loss)
51% - Naughty & Jamarra (loss)
44% - Naughty & Cordy (win)
33% - Naughty & Buku (loss)

3 talls:
51% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (loss)
46% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (win)
54% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (Norf - win)
42% - Naughty, Jamarra & Cordy (loss)
43% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (loss)
46% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (win)
62% - Naughty, Buku & Cordy (win)
63% - Naughty, Buku & Sweet (WCE - win)
56% - Naughty, Schache & Jamarra (win)

Gives us a good idea of how our forward line performs to different structures - obviously a lot of variables not taken into account and teams you’re up against make a big difference of course but as a general overview shows what a lot of people here feel

When we select two genuine forwards in Naughty & Jamarra we’re usually more efficient. We shouldn’t really be going with just the two talls at all as it doesn’t usually work for us and for the most part 2 talls or 3 talls, you really don’t want Cordy down there at all.

1 win 3 losses with 2 talls, 6 wins 2 losses with 3 talls.

Also it’s a *fest of a revolving door week to week