Preview Changes vs North

[Lord Nev]

Yeah that's fair, it might be the blokes own rating system as he runs his own stats website. Take your point there.

Will see if I can find out specifically how it's worked out. Stand by.

Here''s an explanation of this system Scythe:

Worked example of player ratings - FRE v MEL R19 2024 — Credit to Du Bois

Saw this from one of my mutual follows on twitter and thought it would be a good chance to do something I’ve been wanting to for a while

credittodubois.com

 

[Scythe]

Here''s an explanation of this system Scythe:

Worked example of player ratings - FRE v MEL R19 2024 — Credit to Du Bois

Saw this from one of my mutual follows on twitter and thought it would be a good chance to do something I’ve been wanting to for a while

credittodubois.com

Ta, I'll have a proper look later.

Just on the AFL player ratings (if we're interested in those as a metric), here are the past five years for those five players:

Player	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2025 vs peak
Petracca	16.76	15.77	16.52	16.65	13.99	-2.77
Oliver	17.39	18.17	16.15	10.68	11.46	-6.71
Gawn	14.76	13.39	13.90	17.17	14.35	-2.82
May	9.97	10.98	10.84	9.71	8.95	-2.03
Lever	12.76	7.98	10.58	9.29	9.03	-3.77

So if you're using that model, you'd say the drop-off for Petracca has only happened since the major injury, whereas Oliver's has happened sharply over the past two years (since the off-field stuff came out). Using this model, Oliver's drop from his peak is by far the largest of those five players.

But anyway, I'm no big advocate for the player ratings model, I'm more just trying to highlight how subjective it all is.

 

[Lord Nev]

Ta, I'll have a proper look later.

Clear your calendar, his system his quite different and in-depth, which I like tbh, even if you end up not agreeing with all the metrics.

Anyways, I'm just hoping both are gone this year tbh, which is sad, but pending what we do with that, could be exciting.

 

[Scythe]

Anyways, I'm just hoping both are gone this year tbh, which is sad, but pending what we do with that, could be exciting.

I'm coming around to this line of thinking too, I'd just prefer if we didn't conflate every player criticism with 'what about X player'.

Save for probably Kozzy, Disco, Bowey and maybe Melk + Langford, they can all be criticised haha.

 

[Lord Nev]

I'm coming around to this line of thinking too, I'd just prefer if we didn't conflate every player criticism with 'what about X player'.

Save for probably Kozzy, Disco, Bowey and maybe Melk + Langford, they can all be criticised haha.

That's fair, but what about Chandler's drop off....

 

[PerfectFooty]

Is Johnson injured or something? I honestly had forgotten all about him after he got suspended in Alice but that sanction would be over now. I haven't looked it up but i presume he must be injured because i haven't heard about him in the 2s either lately

 

['51 Bewick]

Hi folks. One of my opponents in a keeper league claims Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

has suffered hamstring awareness. Is this true?

 

[Lord Nev]

Is Johnson injured or something? I honestly had forgotten all about him after he got suspended in Alice but that sanction would be over now. I haven't looked it up but i presume he must be injured because i haven't heard about him in the 2s either lately

Ankle. Must be pretty significant as he had surgery and his timeframe hasn't changed much in the last few weeks. Still maybe a month away.

 

[PerfectFooty]

Anyways remember #DunnOrRiot well it's back to the future to unleash #TmacOrRiot

 

[SugarHealey]

What I want to see.

Lever out TMc in.
Oli has a rest for a week.
Gawn rested for a PC injury.

INs: TMc, Verrall, Brown,

 

[Bluelegs]

Reckon we win this one. Probably end up with three of the next four and the pressure comes right off Goodwin.

 

[Daemon]

Goody will play a full strength side. Don't expect any more development for the kids. He wants to cling to his job

 

[Demon Attack]

Meh. Trac, who plays a bit forward, is averaging 7.2 score involvements, Clarry is averaging 5.1. Not really a significant stat or difference to mean much IMO.

I only try to balance it because Oliver has (at most rightly) copped it, whereas I've seen many Dees supporters giving Trac an out due to his 'near death experience' when the reality is he's been declining for a while.

View attachment 2362026

So Tracca in his worst year is better than anyone else's best year? Wut

 

[Demon Attack]

That's fair, but what about Chandler's drop off....

Man why did he refuse to shoot at goal on Sunday he had a couple of good chances to snap on his left boot.

 

[Demon Attack]

Goody will play a full strength side. Don't expect any more development for the kids. He wants to cling to his job

Yep he is in self preservation mode. Problem for him is he is giving himself zero excuses.

 

[melbun]

What I want to see this coming week:

FB: McVee May Bowey
HB: Salem Turner Lindsay
C: Langdon Rivers Windsor
HF: Kentfield Jefferson Viney
FF: Chandler JVR Melksham
RUC: Gawn Pickett Langford
INT: Oliver Sparrow Culley Adams (Petracca)

OUT: Lever (should have never come in, get him right in the VFL), Sharp (not AFL standard), Tholstrup (omitted - I want him to show consistency in VFL before he's given a chance), Fritsch (omitted).

IN: Kentfield, Windsor, Culley, Adams

CBAs need to go to Rivers, Pickett, Langford, Viney, Oliver and anyone else. Trac to get a rocket up him and play as sub.

Change needs to happen or Goody has to go end of season. Kentfield and Turner to rotate if and when necessary.

I can't take a selection seriously that includes Salem.

 

[melbun]

I'm tipping North.

 

[The Dr]

I'm tipping North.

Norf are paying $4.35

 

[Lord Nev]

No Petty, Howes a chance, you could almost lock it in that they'll pick Spargo too by the sounds of it.

 

[Daemon]

Norf are paying $4.35

Did they forget they pantsed us earlier in the year?

 

[SugarHealey]

It's a bonafide late season dead rubber clash of the titans. 14th vs 16th. Minnow vs minnow.

Our season is dead so surely it's time to release the shackles and mix things up! Try some other kids! Mix up the midfield!

Hahahaha...no.

It's Trac, Clarry and Viney all day, every day until their bones turn to dust, forcing them to retire.

But tell me your hopes and dreams for changes anyway.

Its time for big Will.!

Verral's the man. He has to come in.

 

[Jamurp]

This could be a real grim match, I think we’ll probably still win though, but it’ll be another crap winning score like 9.13 or something. Whole team aside from Kossie can get in the bin tbh.

 

[Heaps of fun]

I'm tipping North.

I'm tipping a cripple fight.

 

[FootyBot13]

Sharp is out.

We now return to the dart board to find out who is in...

 

[Lampers]

Campbell in the squad is the most interesting selection for mine.

I would mind seeing a Gawn/Campbell combo with Gawn doing 60/30/10 Ruck/Forward/Bench and Campbell doing 40/40/20 or something similar.

I know they tried something similar with Grundy but Gawn is three years older now and I think he needs to be given some genuine relief in the ruck. I also think Gawn will draw a crowd as a forward which could benefit the smaller forwards or give the other forwards more space to lead into.

And who knows, if Gawn could have a good kicking game he could kick 3 or 4 in a game.