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Preview Changes vs Nth Melbourne

Predict your Thursday night melt level


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If we lose to North the board will hold a meeting about Nicks future, there's no other option. I know we all think they'll say back the boys in and back Nicks in etc., but losing to North to extinguish any flame of hope for 2024, you'd have to call it stumps there and then and start interviewing new candidates.

If we lose.
Inside knowledge or educated guess/hope?
 
Which obviously means very little given how we are going.
You need a ruck to compete around the ground and ROB is a non entity in that space.

Of 29 ruckman

TOG 2nd
Disposals 18th
Metres gained 22nd
Possessions 20th
Contested possessions 24th
Clearances 13th
Marks 23rd
Contested Marks 18th
Tackles 14th
Pressure acts 11th

So outside of the statistically rich stoppages, he's bottom half in every category. And only just top half the others. But, but, but hitouts.
 
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If North get beaten by Hawthorn today they'll be a game and percentage clear on the bottom of the ladder

With a "free" game at their disposal while still obtaining the number 1 pick, just watch them come out and suddenly play like millionaires against us

The likelihood there's any thought to draft picks is exactly zero %.
 
ROB leads the league there because of how many ruck contests he attends. He gets volume, not volume and quality.

Gollant and Burgess have a better hitout to advantage rate than ROB does.
I thought Gollant looked better in the ruck than ROB. Maybe drop ROB and bring Burgess in. Have Burgess and Gollant interchange through the ruck. Both more skilled and mobile around the ground.
 
I thought Gollant looked better in the ruck than ROB. Maybe drop ROB and bring Burgess in. Have Burgess and Gollant interchange through the ruck. Both more skilled and mobile around the ground.
ROB's ruckwork is ok, it's just he does absolutely nothing around the ground.
 
If we lose to North the board will hold a meeting about Nicks future, there's no other option. I know we all think they'll say back the boys in and back Nicks in etc., but losing to North to extinguish any flame of hope for 2024, you'd have to call it stumps there and then and start interviewing new candidates.

If we lose.
Theres a good chance we lose against north and west coast. We never play well in Hobart and west coast look pretty good. We will be vying for pick 1 with north and hawthorn. Nicks must go but it won't happen until around r16ish.
 
Of 29 ruckman

TOG 2nd
Disposals 18th
Metres gained 22nd
Possessions 20th
Contested possessions 24th
Clearances 13th
Marks 23rd
Contested Marks 18th
Tackles 14th
Pressure acts 11th

So outside of the statistically rich stoppages, he's bottom half in every category. But hitouts.
That’s a stacked set of numbers, he must really hustle.
 
Just preparing myself for Himmelberg’s inevitable inclusion this week, ticks a lot of Nicks selection boxes;

  • Tried and failed at AFL level before ✅
  • Gets bullied in contests as still has the physique of a 17 year old despite being on an AFL list for 5+ years ✅
  • Out of contract and unlikely to be at the club next year ✅
I’ve bookmarked this post to come back to after selection. Not to mock you but because I fear this is exactly what is going to happen.
 

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This, our defence has held up unbelievably well given the injuries, inside 50 count, our lack of pressure on the opposition and the ease they can transition.

It’s our best area of the ground by a million miles.

It’s absolute madness we spent what we did on Curtin to develop him as a KPD on guys like McBean. If he’s playing defence it has to be half back whilst he transitions into the midfield. Let him play his game to his strengths.

If we used valuable draft capital with the intention of drafting a KPD and not another midfielder, I actually want to cry.
It’s a ****ing outrage. West Lakes needs to be burnt to the ground.

Our coaches are so ****ing dumb that they probably haven’t watched any vision of curtin. They just looked at him when he walked through the door, said “hes tall” and then put him down back in the sanfl.

The morons running the club are a special breed.
 
I still think drop ROB and play a combo of Burgess and Gollant. ROB cant mark around the ground, and barely wins a hit out. And you can forget kicking goals.

Besides that, Pedlar for McHenry, Dowling for Berry, Sholl as sub. I would say Curtain for Smith, but there is no way we play one debutant let alone 2, in an away game that they (coaches) will be desperate to win.
 
I think Sholl, Berry and McHenry out. Cook to the sub.

Dowling and Crouch in. Maybe Pedlar or Taylor for the third - though Pedlar seems a long way off it for fitness. Hard to see Curtin in yet.

You could maybe argue Himmelburg for Gollant, though Burg didn't do that much yesterday for mine.
Easy to bring Curtin in for an injured Smith.
 

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ROB leads the league there because of how many ruck contests he attends. He gets volume, not volume and quality.
This is very true, and has been for a while. Of the top 20 ruckmen for average hitouts this season, O'Brien is ranked 8th for hitout to advantage percentage. He was 11th in the same stat last season too.

And that's not even taking into account what they do around the ground. For instance, O'Brien is ranked 472nd in the league for marks per game (not in the top 20 of rucks). Similarly, he's ranked 134th in contested marks (20th out of ruckmen). 355th for intercept possessions (22nd of the ruckmen) and 225th for score involvements (16th of the ruckmen) further illustrates the issue. He's sub-mediocre at best at this point.
 

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Preview Changes vs Nth Melbourne


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