Prediction Changes vs Richmond Round 14 @ Metricon

[eaglespremiers]

Imagine presenting a jumper to the player who is likely to relegate you to the reserves for the rest of your career.

Brutal from Simmo haha.

It's the Purple Wedding all over again.

 

[Coasters7]

Why is Hickey being classified as a spud all of the sudden? He is a number one ruck who was playing as a number 2 with shorter quarters. With Nic Nat as number one. Hiding to nothing. I'm happy with him as a backup.

He’s a “spud” because he’s an average ruck who competes well and holds his own, playing for a club that has had the best ruckman in the league since the beginning of time. We’re spoilt when it comes to ruckmen as ours are always giving first use to our mids. So when someone doesn’t, and the ruck contests are genuine 50/50s he’s sh*t. Some of it also comes from our mids playing champagne football a lot of the time and needing to be spoonfed to dominate, hence every other ruckman not named NN being someone that looks bad (2018 finals series aside).

 

[THE A5]

IMO Vardy 2017 as the main ruck was much better than Hickey last year. Vardy/Lycett combo was something in 2018 and I'm somewhat sad by by Vardy's regression in 2019.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Why is Hickey being classified as a spud all of the sudden? He is a number one ruck who was playing as a number 2 with shorter quarters. With Nic Nat as number one. Hiding to nothing. I'm happy with him as a backup.

Is anyone saying he’s a spud? He’s okay.

In time, Williams will be much better.

 

[omgfridge]

Genuinely excited about our lineup. First glance of Bailey and another game into X. Back to 7 defenders too which helps structure. Pretty exciting defense that looks rock solid and we have Nelson/Jetta out too.

Hope Brander keeps his form from last week too. Will be interesting to see i Hutch tags of plays a wing/HF role.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

IMO Vardy 2017 as the main ruck was much better than Hickey last year. Vardy/Lycett combo was something in 2018 and I'm somewhat sad by by Vardy's regression in 2019.

Vardy has always been a terrible no. 1 ruck option.

 

[bUCKET__]

As to height, @Shadowthorn posted on our board and our defenders are not that much smaller then you. I also think our resting ruck will rest in the back line and Soldo is a good mark for his size 2.04m plus

Balta (195cm) v Kennedy (194cm)
Grimes (193cm) v Darling (191cm)
Vlastuin (187cm) v Ah Chee (188cm)
Markov (188cm) v Reid (188cm)
Houli (181cm) v O'Neil (185cm)
Short (178cm) v Cripps (183cm)
Baker (173cm) v Ryan (179 cm)

Where our team will be hoping to stretch your defenders isn't necessarily in height, but rather in the air. Players like Ryan and Ah Chee have a big leap. Kennedy and Darling aren't the tallest KPP in the league, but are strong contested marks. This list is also missing Brander (195cm) and Williams (199cm) too.

Vlastuin and Grimes can take a good grab too, so they'll have a lot of responsibility. I'm a big fan of Vlastuin's game, one of those underrated defenders in the afl media.

 

[leroyeagle]

Surprised they didn't bring Broad or Caddy in.

Still a few acting classes left to complete

 

[Obeanie1]

Caddy is being rested this week as we have learned from the compressed fixture last time, he will be in next week.

Broad is actually having a much needed rest to get over a groin niggle, best do it now then ignore it and it gets worse. We need him to be right for the last 3 weeks leading to finals, that is also when we should start getting Astbury, Prestia and Edwards back. He has not signed for GCS. He actually had an agreed upon contract just before covid broke out and we had to suspended it as per the AFL guidelines.

As to height, Shadowthorn posted on our board and our defenders are not that much smaller then you. I also think our resting ruck will rest in the back line and Soldo is a good mark for his size 2.04m plus

Balta (195cm) v Kennedy (194cm)
Grimes (193cm) v Darling (191cm)
Vlastuin (187cm) v Ah Chee (188cm)
Markov (188cm) v Reid (188cm)
Houli (181cm) v O'Neil (185cm)
Short (178cm) v Cripps (183cm)
Baker (173cm) v Ryan (179 cm)

The reason we have gone with the side we have, particularly with the run and speed of our back line is that you have great lead up forwards, you have x factor in Ryan as well, the one weakness I see from watching your games and its not a knock, we have weaknesses too. All your forwards dont chase as hard as they could. So we are banking on being able to get the ball to ground and then run it out. If you guys get clean possession to deliver it inside 50 with no pressure then we will be done and dusted BUT if we can pressure the ball carrier and force you wide to the pockets we "should" be able to use the speed of short,baker, houli, Balta and markov to run the ball and kick over your midfield press.

The unknown for me is how dewy the ball will be. We are used to playing QLD at night and from all reports the ball can become like a wet ball at times. With both sides missing key players I think we are even in the midfield, both back lines are in form, but your forward line is in better form then ours. Lets hope both sides click, throw their best punches and both walk away with zero injuries.

Should be a cracker.

Um, which of our forwards don't chase as hard as they could?

Kennedy and Darling punch well above their weight in pressure acts.

Ah chee and Reid are both designated pressure forwards are are playing that role and staying out of the big forwards space.

Cripps runs and chases all day. Recall he is one of our best pressure act players.

Ryan is defensive but not quite as much as he is taking mark of the year every quarter.

The last 2-3 games our forward pressure has peaked nicely.

Think you are a bit off the mark with this one.

 

[FKASC]

Um, which of our forwards don't chase as hard as they could?

Kennedy and Darling punch well above their weight in pressure acts.

Ah chee and Reid are both designated pressure forwards are are playing that role and staying out of the big forwards space.

Cripps runs and chases all day. Recall he is one of our best pressure act players.

Ryan is defensive but not quite as much as he is taking mark of the year every quarter.

The last 2-3 games our forward pressure has peaked nicely.

Think you are a bit off the mark with this one.

Nah I reckon it’s fairly spot on if referring to the last year or so.

If Cripps is our best pressure player then it doesn’t set a very high bar compared to some forward lines.

Cripps is averaging less than 3 tackles per game this year, around half of his output compared with a few years ago. Darling is averaging 2.5

Ah Chee, Ryan and Kennedy are averaging a measly 4 tackles per game between them.

The vast majority of our tackles come from our mids.

Partly this is due to efficiency inside 50 but I think it’s fair to say our forwards don’t defend as well as some sides do. Ah Chee in particular needs to be more accountable.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

As to height, Shadowthorn posted on our board and our defenders are not that much smaller then you. I also think our resting ruck will rest in the back line and Soldo is a good mark for his size 2.04m plus

Balta (195cm) v Kennedy (194cm)
Grimes (193cm) v Darling (191cm)
Vlastuin (187cm) v Ah Chee (188cm)
Markov (188cm) v Reid (188cm)
Houli (181cm) v O'Neil (185cm)
Short (178cm) v Cripps (183cm)
Baker (173cm) v Ryan (179 cm)

It’s just not the height. darling has shown he can and will monster Grimes.
You can’t play Baker on Ryan unless he’s just not going to compete in the air so everyone will have to rotate.

And you haven’t considered Bailey Williams who is 200cm+

 

[Obeanie1]

Nah I reckon it’s fairly spot on if referring to the last year or so.

If Cripps is our best pressure player then it doesn’t set a very high bar compared to some forward lines.

Cripps is averaging less than 3 tackles per game this year, around half of his output compared with a few years ago. Darling is averaging 2.5

Ah Chee, Ryan and Kennedy are averaging a measly 4 tackles per game between them.

The vast majority of our tackles come from our mids.

Partly this is due to efficiency inside 50 but I think it’s fair to say our forwards don’t defend as well as some sides do. Ah Chee in particular needs to be more accountable.

Look at forward half turnovers. That's the indicator of forward defensive pressure.

Tackles are great but pressure acts that c a use turnovers are jus tr as important.

We seem to have this part of our game up and going based on recent form.

Tonight will be interesting for sure.

 

[Chris_6678]

Whats the weather like today?

 

[FKASC]

Look at forward half turnovers. That's the indicator of forward defensive pressure.

Tackles are great but pressure acts that c a use turnovers are jus tr as important.

We seem to have this part of our game up and going based on recent form.

Tonight will be interesting for sure.

Certainly doing better in this regard in recent weeks. Was non existent in hub 1.0

 

[FreeTK]

Whats the weather like today?

Dry. 21 degrees.

By tonight it'll be 16 with around 70% humidity.

I think we might be making too big of a deal around conditions.

I've watched many teams play in QLD, and they have had no where near the problems we had early in the season in dealing with humidity. Geelong are the number 2 marking team in the comp, have played majority of their games at Metricon, and have been able to implement their kick mark game to great success.

I tend to feel the issues early in the season were more around intensity, effort, some stuff around system.

We have dealt with wet slippery conditions in Perth with the weather there and we have dealt with it pretty well in my opinion.

We will know pretty quickly I think.

Let's not forget we were pretty putrid against Port and that was during the day in fine weather, when the conditions are at their least slippery.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Weather won’t matter when Nic Nat takes it out of the ruck, busts the pack, and kicks a goal. Do that a dozen times or so and it’s game over.

No pressure Nic.

 

[Cuzz09]

I heard its quite warm and windy on the GC today.

To those weather gurus would that help the dew/slippery stuff stay away or am I wishful thinking

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jupes]

our problems in the first hub were in large part due to our inability to adjust the gameplan to shorter quarters imo.

 

[FreeTK]

our problems in the first hub were in large part due to our inability to adjust the gameplan to shorter quarters imo.

Good point. There are more factors than just the conditions that led to our poor results.

- Game plan - the conservative control the play approach wasn't working in shorter quarters and we comprehensively lost the territory battle. Since round 5, when the match committee implemented the personnel change down back and the defenders played higher up the ground, we have looked a lot better. Let's not forget, the turnaround happened after round 4 (day game against Port) and into round 5 (day game against the swans). Conditions don't account for that change as they were essentially the same conditions we played in from R4 to R5.

- Mentality - Let's be honest, the club, coach and players were unhappy about having to hub it up. At the resumption it looked as though we would be the only flag contender having to do so, and we were giving our biggest rivals, GWS, Collingwood, and Richmond, a huge leg up on us. On top of that, we had been conscripted to a state without knowing when, and one what conditions, we would be going home. It created an environment of resentment, and some of our players (looking at you, Jack Darling), looked downright depressed. The playing group lacked the intensity and competitive spirit required to be competitive at AFL level.

Going in to our 2nd hub all the Victorian teams have been in a hub for 7 weeks. Rather than being a huge disadvantage, hubs and now just part and parcel and almost all the clubs are doing it. It's the new normal.

Having been at home for 7 weeks, and having won 8 in a row since round 5, my expectation is the players are up for the fight. They can see the prospect of home finals and perhaps another flag. Winning streaks lend themselves to building, not just form, but also resilience, and competitive spirit. Those were dearly lacking in the early part of the season. We saw our guys give up and allow themselves to get smacked around in second halves. That is effort. It's not caring enough about the outcome of a game. This time around I think we will dig in like we did against Geelong, and also the Giants.

- Conditions - No doubt the conditions played a role. Some of the ground ball play was just downright ugly. Conditions in Perth haven't been that great, and yet we have been able to win 6 out of 6 there. The idea we can't play in the rain is just wrong. Derby last year was played in torrential downpour and the players were slick and efficient with their skills.

No one really knows what factor was the most important and determined our results the last time in the hub. We will know more very quickly tonight around how definitive a role conditions played.

 

[Seadog]

If Simmo is Socrates who does that make Rossco?

Zeno attempted to prove that the concept of motion was absurd and as such motion did not exist.

 

[THE A5]

Where our team will be hoping to stretch your defenders isn't necessarily in height, but rather in the air. Players like Ryan and Ah Chee have a big leap. Kennedy and Darling aren't the tallest KPP in the league, but are strong contested marks. This list is also missing Brander (195cm) and Williams (199cm) too.

Vlastuin and Grimes can take a good grab too, so they'll have a lot of responsibility. I'm a big fan of Vlastuin's game, one of those underrated defenders in the afl media.

There’s no way Kennedy’s that tall. Kennedy looks to be pushing 2m I reckon. That’s purely based on a significant height disparity between jimmy and Jack

 

[THE A5]

Who needs tackling when you can just corral. Am I right FKASC and Dark Sharks

 

[Jiggyman]

Nah I reckon it’s fairly spot on if referring to the last year or so.

If Cripps is our best pressure player then it doesn’t set a very high bar compared to some forward lines.

Cripps is averaging less than 3 tackles per game this year, around half of his output compared with a few years ago. Darling is averaging 2.5

Ah Chee, Ryan and Kennedy are averaging a measly 4 tackles per game between them.

The vast majority of our tackles come from our mids.

Partly this is due to efficiency inside 50 but I think it’s fair to say our forwards don’t defend as well as some sides do. Ah Chee in particular needs to be more accountable.

I think there's something to be said about our forward setup at stoppages, which is where most attacking I50 tackles occur. Our midfield and even small defenders push up inside 50 and our forwards stay out of the immediate contest. The job is for the mids, Cole, Duggan et al. to lock the ball in with repeat stoppages, and feed the forwards.

On the flipside, when our attacking 50 is relatively open, It's very hard to run down defenders when they have time and space. Often it comes from a poor kick inside 50, where our forwards can be outnumbered. But it certainly is an area i'd like to see improvement in..

 

[Hell Yeoh]

- Mentality - Let's be honest, the club, coach and players were unhappy about having to hub it up. At the resumption it looked as though we would be the only flag contender having to do so, and we were giving our biggest rivals, GWS, Collingwood, and Richmond, a huge leg up on us. On top of that, we had been conscripted to a state without knowing when, and one what conditions, we would be going home. It created an environment of resentment, and some of our players (looking at you, Jack Darling), looked downright depressed. The playing group lacked the intensity and competitive spirit required to be competitive at AFL level.

Going in to our 2nd hub all the Victorian teams have been in a hub for 7 weeks. Rather than being a huge disadvantage, hubs and now just part and parcel and almost all the clubs are doing it. It's the new normal.

This, times 1000. As a supporter I had resentment too, felt we were being treated unfairly while VIC teams stayed put with no travel. Can’t imagine how players felt. It definitely showed on the field.

Even if we don’t win tonight, I think we’ll sweep the rest.

Really like that we have Waterman, Yeo, Allen, Jetta, Nelson, Redden, Cameron to look forward to, and use in rotations and finals hopefully.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

One truism that we are seeing is, success breeds success. I remember the days when a couple of players would go down and we’d bringing in older players who were complete dross, not exciting youngsters