Opinion Changes vs Richmond

[Doctor Feel]

Since I'm a uni student who doesn't have to wake up early tomorrow, I decided to look further into this.

I don't know where to find total hitout-to-advantage stats, but I do have the Prospectus which has percentages. I went through every number one ruck and averaged their percentages, and ended up with an average of 24.7%.

There were 3605 hitouts in the AFL last year. Let's be very generous and assume that the 24.7% percentage applies to all ruckmen and there's not a drop-off between first and second ruckmen or third men up. That would mean there were 890 hitouts to advantage last season.

There were 3469 clearances last season. Let's be even more incredibly generous and assume that every single hitout to advantage resulted in a clearance. Even then, that means only 25.7% of clearances were won as a result of an effective hitout, and by extension that 74.3% of clearances were won from by a player after a neutral or ineffective hitout by their ruckman or from an opposition hitout.


So even being extremely generous, effective hitouts only lead to about a quarter of clearances. They don't seem that important.

From a Port perspective, lets look at the 'Renouf as second ruck v Stewart as ruck forward' debate that's been happening here. Renouf played as a second ruck last year and averaged 2.9 hitouts to advantage. I don't know where I could find Stewart's hitouts to advantage, but as an unskilled tap ruckman averaging 8 hitouts a game he probably gets about 1.5 hitouts to advantage a game. So let's say Renouf would get 1.5 more hitouts to advantage than Stewart a game as the second ruck.

Daniel Stewart averages 0.93 goals per game over his career. Brent Renouf averages 0.17 goals a game over his career. So let's say Stewart averages 0.75 goals a game more than Renouf.

Over a season, would you rather have 33 extra effective hitouts or 16.5 extra goals? I know which one I'd rather.

But when you break it down even further, alot of goals are scored from clearances, whether that be in the centre or the forward line etc.

How many times have you seen in your life in the dieing minutes of a game, a few solid taps + clearances turn the game on its head. Clearances and hit outs to advantage should never be undervalued. They are huge and sometimes offer direct scoring opportunities with much higher percentages than general play.

i'd love to see the average goals scored from hit-outs to advantage stat.

 

[PJ Power]

Depending on fitness, I'd make the following changes...

D Stewart for Schulz
Redden for Renouf
Hitchcock* for Wingard
Logan for Broadbent
Salopek for Pfeiffer

Release Pearce and Hammer into the midfield rotations.


*Toss up between Hitchy and Brett but I've listed Hitchy to avoid the predictable (and very boring) commentary on the value of Brett Ebert by the same posters week in week out...

I'm good with these ins but hope that it means that Jacobs, Hartlett and Pearce all spend time further up the grounhd.

The value of playing two rucks remains the big unknown for me. Our mids are tracking that badly that I always feel that we can't afford to play the extra tall as we need more running options in the middle. It's always a case of quantity over quality for us in the midfield rotations.

 

[Jonts]

When is Lobbe fit?

If he was fit now i'd bring in him over D Stewart, Play Lobbe as the third forward/second ruckman with Redden being the prime ruckman

 

[StrappingTape]

When is Lobbe fit?

If he was fit now i'd bring in him over D Stewart, Play Lobbe as the third forward/second ruckman with Redden being the prime ruckman

Lobbe won't get a call up after a 4 disposal effort in the SANFL or whatever it was. Do the Tigers have a damaging ruckman? Maybe this week if it's just Maric we can afford to go Renouf on his own as even if he gets tired, not jumping his length should still make him compete against Maric where as Jacobs I think is much taller and longer so it got hard when he dropped off.

 

[Jonts]

Lobbe won't get a call up after a 4 disposal effort in the SANFL or whatever it was. Do the Tigers have a damaging ruckman? Maybe this week if it's just Maric we can afford to go Renouf on his own as even if he gets tired, not jumping his length should still make him compete against Maric where as Jacobs I think is much taller and longer so it got hard when he dropped off.

So he isn't 100% fit yet (was that his first game back or his second?)

And he got his last call up when he was playing reserves IRRC

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

Yup, Lobbe has never dominated in the SANFL - because we have trained him to be an AFL player. When he comes in the AFL team, he does better than in the SANFL. I hope the coaches have learnt their lesson on this.