Analysis Changes vs Weagles Round 11

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Sid Nullis

Potnparma
Aug 8, 2021
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In all this circus of hit out stats has anyone actually mentioned that 1 hit out to advantage ≠ another hit out to advantage. Off the top of my head on Saturday Sweet hit the ball into dangerous space for Bailey Smith to run onto, and then palmed one down for Jacko to run straight through for a clean centre clearance. Can't remember seeing too many taps from Tim be that clean
The benefit of 2 competent ruckman is clean centre clearances.A hack kick out of congestion is a clearance as is a tap down the throat of a mid on the move. We don’t need a reminder of what Jackson did to us in the last quarter of the gf but those clearances were a thing of beauty.
 

Sid Nullis

Potnparma
Aug 8, 2021
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Whether or not Sweets our man time will tell but he’s a better option than Cordy. A De Konning type would be ideal hopefully Sam Darcy becomes that player
 

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ossie_21

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Had a dream we lost 94-90, but the game had also been moved from Optus to Claremont Oval.


So as that isn’t happening, we should s**t this one in.
 

Wocka

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images (11).jpeg
 

Next Waiting

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Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

View attachment 1409921

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

View attachment 1409922

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

View attachment 1409923

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.
These stats are terrific.

Just a point of clarity. Hit outs sharked - is that sharked against? For example, Timmy wins the tap but Oliver and Petracca read it better and effectively steal and clear it so that is part of Timmy's Hit Outs Sharked %
 

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Next Waiting

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Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

View attachment 1409921

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

View attachment 1409922

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

View attachment 1409923

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.
Oliver Gigacz I'd be really interested to know what the ruck stats were in the Melbourne v Freo game just completed. Freo winning handsomely in the end and it looked like they belted Melbourne in clearances in the second half.

(ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked) for all who rucked in the game

and

hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (this game only)... Melbourne and Freo

A lot to learn out of that game

(May going off not concerned about - damage looked like it was done in the ruck and clearances)...very instructive
 

Mutt

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Not really. people are arguing for sweet to take ruck time away from english.
I didn't see anyone argue that - the pro two-rucks crew seemed to argue for Sweet and English to play in tandem rather than English and Cordy. It's Sweet vs Cordy, or Sweet vs Kamis or Dunkley or Bont.
 

BEaston

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I didn't see anyone argue that - the pro two-rucks crew seemed to argue for Sweet and English to play in tandem rather than English and Cordy. It's Sweet vs Cordy, or Sweet vs Kamis or Dunkley or Bont.
Read again then.

Advocating for a more 50/50 Sweet/English split (tandem, you might call it) as opposed to the English/Cordy(Hannan, Dunkley, whoever) split which was in the realm of 80-90/20-10

Some even suggesting Sweet main ruck, English starting forward.
 

Mutt

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Read again then.

Advocating for a more 50/50 Sweet/English split (tandem, you might call it) as opposed to the English/Cordy(Hannan, Dunkley, whoever) split which was in the realm of 80-90/20-10

Some even suggesting Sweet main ruck, English starting forward.
The post you replied to was correct - the debate up until tonight at least was whether Cordy stays in at the expense of Sweet, or whether Cordy is dropped.
 

BEaston

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The post you replied to was correct - the debate up until tonight at least was whether Cordy stays in at the expense of Sweet, or whether Cordy is dropped.
I think there has been more context around the conversation than simply cordy (or hannan, whoever) v sweet.
 

BEaston

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Sweet 50/20 ruck/forward,

English 50/40 Ruck/Forward,
For reference here's just first post I came across about taking about reducing English's time rucking, hence the relevance of my post.

Hopefully this allows my input to the thread deemed valid.

If English's ruck time is to be reduced then it's valid to look at his ruck output as well, not simply look just at Cordy's meager totals.
 

TiAn_

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For reference here's just first post I came across about taking about reducing English's time rucking, hence the relevance of my post.

Hopefully this allows my input to the thread deemed valid.

If English's ruck time is to be reduced then it's valid to look at his ruck output as well, not simply look just at Cordy's meager totals.

You have to remember that “forward” doesn’t mean parked inside the attacking 50. It also doesn’t necessarily have to mean less CBAs for English.

English’s time “rucking” was actually reduced last night, based on his earlier games. Significantly from earlier in the season but not very dramatically from his more recent games. Can’t read too much into one game, particularly a blowout against poor rucks like that, but it seemed to work for him. He seemed to spend a fair bit of time roaming around.

Based on my quick back of napkin numbers, earlier in the season, English was taking 95% of the CBs and 75-80% of the non CB ruck contests. The non-CB ruck attendances for non-English players crept up as the season went on. In English’s previous game Cordy did 8% CBs and 40% non-CB ruck contests.

Last night English was in for 80% of CBs and 64% of the non-CB ruck contests. Sweet did 20% and 36%. So English started in the middle most of the time but they let Sweet pick up more work at throw ins and ball ups.

If the coaches have determined the best thing for English is the second ruck doing 35-40% of the non-CB ruck work then I’d prefer Sweet to Cordy. Only our staff would know if reducing the CBAs for English was helpful for him last night.

Sweet’s first game forward, so I’ll give him a chance, but he wasn't great. Still probably comparable to Cordy’s recent output though.
 

BEaston

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You have to remember that “forward” doesn’t mean parked inside the attacking 50. It also doesn’t necessarily have to mean less CBAs for English.

English’s time “rucking” was actually reduced last night, based on his earlier games. Significantly from earlier in the season but not very dramatically from his more recent games. Can’t read too much into one game, particularly a blowout against poor rucks like that, but it seemed to work for him. He seemed to spend a fair bit of time roaming around.

Based on my quick back of napkin numbers, earlier in the season, English was taking 95% of the CBs and 75-80% of the non CB ruck contests. The non-CB ruck attendances for non-English players crept up as the season went on. In English’s previous game Cordy did 8% CBs and 40% non-CB ruck contests.

Last night English was in for 80% of CBs and 64% of the non-CB ruck contests. Sweet did 20% and 36%. So English started in the middle most of the time but they let Sweet pick up more work at throw ins and ball ups.

If the coaches have determined the best thing for English is the second ruck doing 35-40% of the non-CB ruck work then I’d prefer Sweet to Cordy. Only our staff would know if reducing the CBAs for English was helpful for him last night.

Sweet’s first game forward, so I’ll give him a chance, but he wasn't great. Still probably comparable to Cordy’s recent output though.
Interesting on your numbers Sweet did less non-CBA rucking than Cordy.

It's a delicate mix to try to get right. The advantage with Sweet is that he'd presumably do better than alternatives while rucking but the downside being doesn't really have a secondary role. As his main weapon is ruckwork, it will change English's mix. You're right only the coaching staff would know the impact of that change... their metrics might be completely different to ours as observers. On the other hand, the fill ins (Cordy, et al), are really only used to give English a break and we're hoping our other mids can cover the deficiency for that time.

Not an easy balancing act.
 

doggies ftw

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Interesting on your numbers Sweet did less non-CBA rucking than Cordy.

It's a delicate mix to try to get right. The advantage with Sweet is that he'd presumably do better than alternatives while rucking but the downside being doesn't really have a secondary role. As his main weapon is ruckwork, it will change English's mix. You're right only the coaching staff would know the impact of that change... their metrics might be completely different to ours as observers. On the other hand, the fill ins (Cordy, et al), are really only used to give English a break and we're hoping our other mids can cover the deficiency for that time.

Not an easy balancing act.
Worth noting the opposition though, Timmy could have gone it alone last night no questions asked - but then other weeks it’s a lot more difficult to do that. For example the ruck situation against Carlton was a big factor in us losing as English couldn’t handle a brute ruck in Pittonet with a good back up in De Koning and their midfield had it on a platter all night.

I agree the million-dollar question is what’s a bigger advantage to the team, Sweets advantages in the ruck over Cordys or Cordys flexibility/forward advantages over Sweets. The answer is it probably changes week to week. WCE & Geelong you’d probably favour a forward who can chop out whereas Carlton & Saints you’d definitely prefer two genuine ruck men IMO.

Let’s face it though it’s not like Sweet is holding out Lobb or De Koning, a genuine forward who can ruck a bit. Is Cordy forward even an advantage over Sweet? I’m really not so sure it is. Over the past few months at best Cordys been quiet/invisible and at worst he can be a liability - see dropped chest marks in the square, spoiling forwards like Bont/Naughty on occasion.

Other options being Schache who maybe could do it but geez we’ve tried time and Time again and he just doesn’t get any better. Or midfielders but * how many times has that backfired on us and we’ve finally got a good thing going with our midfield balance I’d be very wary of messing with that.

Hopefully if Bruce is up to rucking later in the year the discussion will be over as he’s obviously a way better forward but still good enough in the ruck to be a chop out. If he comes back strong it could change our year tbh
 

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