Prediction Changes vs West Coast Eagles

[portly]

Yes it's irrelevant to how he will perform in the AFL side. Of course if he was scoring zero goals every week then he would be performing worse, but my point is that being the best SANFL forward holds little to no relevance to being a quality AFL forward.

I watch exactly zero SANFL games. I'm not basing whether they are ready on my personal judgement of their performances, only on the basis that there is clearly a spot in the side for a tall forward and none of them have taken that spot.

I think I am one of the few around here that fully accepts my understanding of what it takes to play at the AFL level is severely limited at best. What I do understand is how group think tantrums work, and I can quite clearly see it on this board.

The statistics suggest we are simply unlucky so far, and I'm more willing to trust those statistics over "experts".

Not unlucky.

I know a lot about probability theory and I know that 0 out of 11 losses in close games is possible, so it is just possible[emoji5] that you are correct.

But it is FAR more probable that this statistic indicates that the coaches do not in fact have it right.


And, I'm afraid that I am not one of those people who always think that the boss, the expert, gets it right all of the time. Examples abound in real lfe.

Anyway, I have watched some Magpies games and I do think that Eddy has what it takes to be far more valuable in the team than some others, especially Impey and Neade. I really rate his delivery to others as well as his ability one on one and accuracy.

 

[PowerBaz]

So what are the most likely ins people? assuming Eddy last in so he won't get a gig or are we going to get three ins that we didn't see coming?

 

[JohnHinckleyJr]

Coaching at Arsenal.

Boom tish

 

[R_Gray_Jnr_Jnr]

Official:
Hombsch In - Broadbent Out

This is an absolute outrage!

 

[JohnHinckleyJr]

Ed will play about time kern

 

[Enviable Tradition]

No, I don't want Eddy on our list. I want someone who can ruck and is decent up forward, so that we aren't ****** If Ryder or Dixon go down. And I also want Marshall being blooded ahead of players we will delist like Aidyn Johnson.

I want both.

To use the Crows as an example.

We need a FF - Dixon (Walker)

We need a 2nd tall/back up ruck - Trengove/Howard (Jenkins/Otten)

We need at least one lead up 3rd tall - Eddie/Palmer (Lynch/McGovern)

The crows actually play 4 of those 5 at times. All we are asking for is 3.

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[Chachi]

So Broady, Hammer out?
Hombsch, Atley in?

 

[El Zorro]

AFL advises Matthew Broadbent (ankle) has withdrawn from Port Adel rd16 squad v West Coast.
Brett Eddy into 25.
Final 22 named later today.

 

[Power Raid]

Please select atley

 

[Enviable Tradition]

The closer you are to perfection the more the flaws become apparent.

Too bad that playing the players people are asking for would balance us only for the fact that we'd score more goals when we got the ball inside 50 but our inside 50 numbers would drop to the point where it would be irrelevant because it would end up being the same score.

People don't want to acknowledge the negatives in their changes. Why not try and figure out why the coaches don't want to make these apparently sensible and rational changes first?

Here's a big hint - locking the ball inside forward 50 isn't all the high forwards do. They also drop back into defence - which is why our defence is so good in spite of playing shorter key backs. That's why we need so many of them.

Why do you assume people don't see the downside?

It is possible for people to see all thr facts and still disagree with you you know.

I see that there is the potential there for us to lose forward pressure and defensive help.

Given what we are currently doing is not working though I am willing to give it a go and see whether either

a) the increased offensive efficiency outweighs the loss of defence

b) these players are able to play the defensive role asked as well as kick straight/mark the pill and the loss isn't as much as we feared

c) the increased offensive potency means that sides are less willing to just run off us negating their run in a different way.

It might not work but at least we will have found out.


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[PA1870FC]

I want both.

To use the Crows as an example.

We need a FF - Dixon (Walker)

We need a 2nd tall/back up ruck - Trengove/Howard (Jenkins/Otten)

We need at least one lead up 3rd tall - Eddie/Palmer (Lynch/McGovern)

The crows actually play 4 of those 5 at times. All we are asking for is 3.

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In the nicest possible way, please don't compare to Crows again. It's insulting.
They're hardly a good example at the moment anyway.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Not unlucky.

I know a lot about probability theory and I know that 0 out of 11 losses in close games is possible, so it is just possible[emoji5] that you are correct.

But it is FAR more probable that this statistic indicates that the coaches do not in fact have it right.


And, I'm afraid that I am not one of those people who always think that the boss, the expert, gets it right all of the time. Examples abound in real lfe.

Anyway, I have watched some Magpies games and I do think that Eddy has what it takes to be far more valuable in the team than some others, especially Impey and Neade. I really rate his delivery to others as well as his ability one on one and accuracy.

Beat me too it.

It might not be conclusive evidence of it not working but it sure as shit isn't evidence if it just being luck

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[Forzaport]

Atley in according to Kornes on twitter.

It moved.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

In the nicest possible way, please don't compare to Crows again. It's insulting.
They're hardly a good example at the moment anyway.

I'd take their forward efficiency any day of the week.

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[Coobk001]

The fact that we're not far off is exactly why everyone is so frustrated.

It doesn't help that:

- Of the 8 games we've won, we've only won as underdog once, and that was all the way back in round 1 where results are near meaningless as anything can happen.
- Of the 6 we've lost, we've lost at least 3 where we went in as favourites. So HALF of our losses have come when we should've won.

So on balance, we are underperforming.

Underperform and this current sentiment amongst our supporters is what you get.

We need to knock off WC, the Kangas and Melbourne in the next 3 weeks to regain any momentum.

 

[manureid]

Really not looking forward to the Melbourne game.

 

[portly]

I agree. We are not that far off. Our midfield is great, our defence has been even better.

But even blind Freddy can see that the difference between being there and being "not too far off" is our forward structure. I am not football coach, I played one year under 10s and moved to soccer coz I couldn't get a touch in footy. But I watch a hell of a lot of footy and spend most of my evenings watching footy programs etc. It is obvious that PAFC needs a tall forward capable of leading taking a grab and kicking it through the two main sticks.

The coaches are persisting with Trengove who fails week after week at being that type of forward that we need. Dixon is not that forward because he is much better used at CHF taking that grab and delivering inside 50, and dragging one of the oppo's best defenders out with him.

We have two players, albeit SANFL players, who have the right physical attributes, can take a grab and can certainly kick it through the goals. Why persist with Trengove when we can at least try one of the other two (Howard/Eddy)?

It's simple and it comes down to economics. We stuffed up on contracts with Lobbe and Hartlett. Lobbe is a lost cause and a loss of $500k per year. Trengove as far as I am aware is on 450-500k per year. How bad would it be if we dropped yet another high paid player to play reserves, and have $1 million of our salary cap playing in the 2s.

It is the only fathomable reason because it is clear that Trengove is no good up front, therefore would need to go back to playing down back. He now doesn't fit in our back 6 which are performing excellent, and his physical attributes and lack of pace do not fit with Bassett's defensive ethos. Therefore he rots up front, takes the spot of someone who undoubtedly would perform their primary natural position of being a forward much better than Trengove's third natural position of being a forward (After defence (surplus to requirements) and after ruck (he's a good chop out ruckman)).

This my friend is the reason why our groupthink is of an overly melting attitude, because yes we are "THAT CLOSE" but that close does not win a flag. Ken cannot continue to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result, it is purely insane. I can see it, we can see it and I'm sure you yourself can see this too. The changes need to be made ASAP.

A like wasn't enough. Good post.

 

[Byron!!!]

We don't just scream and throw things our computer screens though.

Most of this board has recognised that we have a big problem with our forward line. We've struggled to put score on the board against good sides despite our midfield and defence playing very well.

At the start of the year it appeared that we were going in with Dixon and Trengove as our KPF pairing, while Howard recovered from injury and Eddy was the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup.

Since that time, Trengove has been unable to be effective as a KPF. He doesn't present well and he doesn't bring other forwards into the game. This isn't his fault, he's not a natural forward and is much better in other positions. Also since that time, Howard has recovered from injury and Eddy has been in blistering SANFL form after having had a preseason and half of the full season to learn our system.

The forward line has struggled. We struggled to make space, we struggle to find targets, our forwards bar Dixon don't present well. It's a clusterf*ck. We lead the league in inside 50s but against good sides, we really struggle to score. It's infuriating. Against Richmond we only scored 63 points despite racking up 67 inside 50s. That is obscenely inefficient, but it keeps happening to us against good sides.

The coaching staff solution has been to rotate through high forwards. Impey/Neade/White/Young/SGray etc. It hasn't solved the problem. Our problem appears to be that we don't have a good second target who knows how to present, lead and make space for himself and his teammates. We have 2 talented KPFs playing good footy in the SANFL and we have had for several weeks now.

It's not just 2017 though. The only time we've been efficient going forward under Hinkley was in 2014 when we had Schulz and Wingard having career years and had a gameplan that led to a lot of entries into an open forwardline. We don't have that luxury anymore. We've effectively had a broken forward system for 4.5 years under Hinkley.

And now he won't make an obvious selection and give Eddy or Howard a go to see if they can bring a bit of natural forward nous to the team and straighten us up a little bit going forward. He just keeps doing the same thing and we keep having a terribly inefficient forwardline. After 4.5 years of waiting for this to be sorted out, I have no faith in Hinkley to do so. The reason moving him on is so urgent is that we have all the pieces in place this year. It's imperative that we make a change to the forwardline and try to improve it, because we are outside the top 4 and really hurting our chances at a flag while this farce continues.

He's proven he can't or won't address this problem, and as such he must be moved on for the good of the club.

I actually think a big part of the problem is that Hinkley didn't stick to his guns and we moved away from counter-attack and to this full press that everyone showers praise on Basset for. The press leads the a crowded forward line and hard to score goals. Effective fast counter-attack leaves a nice open forward line to work in.

"But if you don't play counter-attack then it's because you are stupid. Counter-attack is a fantastic item of football, an ammunition that you have, and when you find your opponent unbalanced you have a fantastic moment to score a goal"

- José Mourinho




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[Byron!!!]

I want both.

To use the Crows as an example.

We need a FF - Dixon (Walker)

We need a 2nd tall/back up ruck - Trengove/Howard (Jenkins/Otten)

We need at least one lead up 3rd tall - Eddie/Palmer (Lynch/McGovern)

The crows actually play 4 of those 5 at times. All we are asking for is 3.

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Ironically if you go to the Crows board there are as many people there that want Pyke sacked for being too tall as there are here that want Hinkley sacked for being too small. Maybe 3 is the magic number!


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[Nelson051]

Get ****ing around it!

 

[Coobk001]

Yeah I've been convinced ever since Nick's interview on Tuesday that Atley will come in. They want to release Wingard forward more and he is the man that will enable that.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Anyway, I have watched some Magpies games and I do think that Eddy has what it takes to be far more valuable in the team than some others, especially Impey and Neade. I really rate his delivery to others as well as his ability one on one and accuracy.

Good post. His delivery inside 50 is an underrated aspect of getting him back in the side. Supporters of the current regime have raised that Eddy didn't kick any more goals in his 3 games than Neade has kicked in his 3, but that overlooks that Eddy had 5 goal assists to Neade's 1. If we were to apply the NBA's 'points responsible for' metric (goals + assists), that means he contributed twice as many goals as Neade from the same amount of games.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Ironically if you go to the Crows board there are as many people there that want Pyke sacked for being too tall as there are here that want Hinkley sacked for being too small. Maybe 3 is the magic number!


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Yeah, it's amusing reading both boards about their respective coaches. Pyke is no longer God either.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I actually think a big part of the problem is that Hinkley didn't stick to his guns and we moved away from counter-attack and to this full press that everyone showers praise on Basset for. The press leads the a crowded forward line and hard to score goals. Effective fast counter-attack leaves a nice open forward line to work in.

"But if you don't play counter-attack then it's because you are stupid. Counter-attack is a fantastic item of football, an ammunition that you have, and when you find your opponent unbalanced you have a fantastic moment to score a goal"

- José Mourinho

Counter attack was great until teams start sitting extra players back on us and blocking the slingshot. We'd then lose in a scrap.

We tried it for 2 more years after 2014 and it didn't work because the formula to counter it was so easy.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Get ******* around it!

Atwood