List Mgmt. Changing of the Guard, Regenerating Over The Next 3 Years

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Per the ESPN footy podcast/Champion Data, Nic Nat is currently playing at 80% above the average 31 year old ruckman and is leading the AFL for score launches full stop, which is basically unheard of.

Blame the rest of the goofs around him.

Not saying he isn’t a good and important player but he has no bearing on our premiership window… we won without him and regressed with him. Simple as that


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Need to see how the season's pans out but the way it's looking, it feels like it would be a waste of resources to push again in 2022. It's no guarantee now but we still should play finals this year, but I can't see us doing any damage. It's time to pay our penance for 7 consecutive finals series and a flag.

JK and Hurn are the obvious retirements, while Ah Chee, Hutchings and Vardy are off contract at the end of the year and clearly on the chopping block.

I'd consider putting Redden's name up for trade as well. We could still perhaps get a mid 30's pick for him, and he'd possibly entertain a trade to a team that is contention for a flag but just missing a couple of pieces. He'd be in the top dozen or so players at any club in the league so there'd be interest for sure.

After that we have Shuey and NicNat both out of contract in 2022 and clearly on the home straight. If we've put the cue in the rack and going the rebuild I'd say a fair chance they hang up their boots at the end of this contract. McGov is OOC in 2023 and his form and fitness is regressing at a rate that will likely see him call it a day then, but it would be folly to flat out write-off a 4xAA just yet.

All the above is going to see us tumble down the ladder, probably bottoming out in 2023 or maybe 2024. It goes without saying we need to nail those drafts, and move back up the ladder in the mid part of the decade whilst the likes of Allen, Brander and Duggan are really hitting their peak. We'll also have tall's in Barrass, Waterman and HEdwards on our list so the focus in these drafts really needs to be the midfield. I wouldn't waste any high picks on a ruck, unless there's a clear gem that's slid through. Back us in to find a beauty lower down the draft or develop B Williams.

Impossible to know now as injuries and desire play a huge role on which veterans stick around, but hopefully still two or three 30+ lads from Yeo, Darling, Kelly, Sheed, Gaff, Sheppard (latter two unlikely, but not impossible) still leading the team around the park in their twilight years.

Simmo also needs to make some moves. I was a fan of the appointment, fan of his coaching and we have reaped rewards, but his methodology has been found out by teams who are willing to apply the heat. If he has lost the dressing room, then it's almost impossible to come back, but I doubt that is the case. But we need to move to a game style that can stand up to a higher intensity opposition. I can't see him making wholesale changes to his coaching strategy - his low possession, high skilled game plan seems fairly ideological, but he will have to make some tweaks, which he has done in the past, restructuring our defence in 2015, and playing a more contested brand of footy in the back end of 2018.
 
Before injury this year, Kelly was one of the in-form players in the competition. I get it’s fun to melt after big losses but I’d be giving Kelly a bit more time to get back to where he was.

That was last year excuse when he was in a new team and we gave him time to adjust to the game plan and team. This year even his best is far off his Geelong days. In Geelong, he was scary consistent. where do you think that comes from?? It is not a melt. It is an observation of a player who has actually gone downwards due to god knows what. one would suspect coming home with family will make him improve more. I guess at this stage, Tim is way too inconsistent in Eagles jumper even before injury.

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That was last year excuse when he was in a new team and we gave him time to adjust to the game plan and team. This year even his best is far off his Geelong days. In Geelong, he was scary consistent. where do you think that comes from?? It is not a melt. It is an observation of a player who has actually gone downwards due to god knows what. one would suspect coming home with family will make him improve more. I guess at this stage, Tim is way too inconsistent in Eagles jumper even before injury.

View attachment 1172698

Geelong = Outside and front half of ground. WC = inside and back half because midfield needs it.
 
That was last year excuse when he was in a new team and we gave him time to adjust to the game plan and team. This year even his best is far off his Geelong days. In Geelong, he was scary consistent. where do you think that comes from?? It is not a melt. It is an observation of a player who has actually gone downwards due to god knows what. one would suspect coming home with family will make him improve more. I guess at this stage, Tim is way too inconsistent in Eagles jumper even before injury.

View attachment 1172698
At Geelong he played in a midfield that had Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood, Duncan,Menagola and Guthrie. This year he essentially led a depleted midfield with two b grade mids and a wingmen turned into a mid. He wasn't Geelong level good but he still was having a great year. By memory he was averaging like 27 touches, 6 clearances and 13 cp's pre Essendon game.
 
Need to see how the season's pans out but the way it's looking, it feels like it would be a waste of resources to push again in 2022. It's no guarantee now but we still should play finals this year, but I can't see us doing any damage. It's time to pay our penance for 7 consecutive finals series and a flag.

JK and Hurn are the obvious retirements, while Ah Chee, Hutchings and Vardy are off contract at the end of the year and clearly on the chopping block.

I'd consider putting Redden's name up for trade as well. We could still perhaps get a mid 30's pick for him, and he'd possibly entertain a trade to a team that is contention for a flag but just missing a couple of pieces. He'd be in the top dozen or so players at any club in the league so there'd be interest for sure.

After that we have Shuey and NicNat both out of contract in 2022 and clearly on the home straight. If we've put the cue in the rack and going the rebuild I'd say a fair chance they hang up their boots at the end of this contract. McGov is OOC in 2023 and his form and fitness is regressing at a rate that will likely see him call it a day then, but it would be folly to flat out write-off a 4xAA just yet.

All the above is going to see us tumble down the ladder, probably bottoming out in 2023 or maybe 2024. It goes without saying we need to nail those drafts, and move back up the ladder in the mid part of the decade whilst the likes of Allen, Brander and Duggan are really hitting their peak. We'll also have tall's in Barrass, Waterman and HEdwards on our list so the focus in these drafts really needs to be the midfield. I wouldn't waste any high picks on a ruck, unless there's a clear gem that's slid through. Back us in to find a beauty lower down the draft or develop B Williams.

Impossible to know now as injuries and desire play a huge role on which veterans stick around, but hopefully still two or three 30+ lads from Yeo, Darling, Kelly, Sheed, Gaff, Sheppard (latter two unlikely, but not impossible) still leading the team around the park in their twilight years.

Simmo also needs to make some moves. I was a fan of the appointment, fan of his coaching and we have reaped rewards, but his methodology has been found out by teams who are willing to apply the heat. If he has lost the dressing room, then it's almost impossible to come back, but I doubt that is the case. But we need to move to a game style that can stand up to a higher intensity opposition. I can't see him making wholesale changes to his coaching strategy - his low possession, high skilled game plan seems fairly ideological, but he will have to make some tweaks, which he has done in the past, restructuring our defence in 2015, and playing a more contested brand of footy in the back end of 2018.
No one is paying anything of value for Redden. He is the wrong side of 30, which means he is one serious injury away from the end of his career. Mitchell was 33 or 34 and an absolute A grader, we traded some useless pick for him (4th rounder?). Redden would be the same.
 
No one is paying anything of value for Redden. He is the wrong side of 30, which means he is one serious injury away from the end of his career. Mitchell was 33 or 34 and an absolute A grader, we traded some useless pick for him (4th rounder?). Redden would be the same.
Quite possibly we wouldn't get much value. Redden would be three years younger than Mitchell but obviously isn't near the player Sam was.

Nevertheless if we are looking to turn over the list over the next couple of years Redden coming OOC is potentially a good opportunity to get youngster in a few years before Redden retires and get some games into someone who may play in our next flag, whether that is Redden's direct replacement or another youngster already on our list that's moved up a spot in the pecking order. If we are going to go the rebuild route, and our next realistic flag tilt starts ~2026, then JR's replacement is more likely to have an impact on that flag tilt if they've been in the system since 2022, rather than 2025.

If we were to go down the path of Hawthorn and Cats and move some of our 30+ players to other clubs, Redden probably has the most trade value of any of them (NicNat would if not for his knee injuries). It's also going to be an easier sell to the supporters seeing Redden in another jersey than - hypothetically speaking - NicNat or Shuey. Hawks and Cats fans were pretty vocal when they saw guys like Chapman, Johnson, Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Birchall at other clubs. That being said, the club shouldn't be making trade decisions based on fan reactions, but it certainly does play a bit of a part in how much of a blowtorch gets put on the club when those plans don't go so well.

Anyway, it's just spit balling ideas on potential options to rejuvenate the list. Not necessarily saying we should definitely go down that path, but one to think about. Gaff, with his ties to Victoria and at least one serious consideration in moving east that we know about, falls into this category as well. He is contracted till 2024 so our position at the trade table would be stronger as well.

Either way, there will be a lot of list turnover over the next 3 seasons. Personally, I'd rather embrace it early and get this rebuild started in 2022.
 
We've regressed since 2018 - perhaps we should get rid of every good player we currently have since we have regressed with them also..
Talk about a dummy spit.
Or perhaps we draw a line in the sand and say we have gone backwards with this group of senior players since 2018 who many seem content to live off that moment and say who will still be here for our next flag and start with those guys. The club would never do this ( heck we have held onto two blokes who haven't played in two years even though one is a constant problem) because as long as we keep limping into finals and people keep paying memberships they really don't care... Little wonder we have such a soft underbelly in the side.
 
I’d like to see something like this for round one next year:

Sheppard Barrass HEdwards
Duggan McGovern Witherden
Gaff Yeo Redden
Rioli Darling Shuey
Ryan Allen Cripps
Naitanui Kelly Sheed
Cole LEdwards Cameron Brander

- Allen takes the mantle from JK. Darling, Brander and HEdwards to all pinch hit in the ruck as needed

- HEdwards plays in the backline in a Schoey 2018 third tall style role, hopefully freeing up McGovern to return to form

- We go smaller up forward and drill it into someone like Cameron that his number one KPI is pressure

- Shuey phased out of a midfield that has too many cooks in the kitchen. Brander in the Hunter role
 
Kelly was in delicious form before he hurt himself v the Bombers. Even on the weekend when he had ball in hand he was always lowering his eyes unlike Sheed but Kelly just looked cooked with fitness.

To be honest and fair to Kelly, he doesn't look like the only one cooked regarding fitness. The Richmond game I literally saw every Eagles player be lead to the contest by his opposition. Even when Richmond would switch, we didn't cover the field nearly as much as the tigers. There was at least 4 times Waterman's player was picked and 3 of those 4 times resulted in a goal.

My biggest issue is the hack kicks and reluctance to use the corridor. I get it, contested marks have been a strength, but it would be nice to see us use the corridor more often. When we do, the ball seems to end up i50. Which is the real shame.
 

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