Analysis Chicken McNuggets, Destroyed Houses and the Importance of Chris Masten

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Aug 14, 2004
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Ah preseason; it was the best of times, it was the blurst of times. A time when every player has infinite ceilings and supporter optimism borders on neurological dysfunction. Where the background music at training or choice of subway sub becomes a point of intense debate for weeks on end. Let’s face it – preseason is a long, drawn out repetitious episode of borefest for us. But never fear, I have come to the rescue to save the preseason from the mind-numbing, zombie inducing coma that that friends at club PR provide.


Our first instalment concerns the scourge of upright structures and is an enigma to all that have crossed his path. It is said that he conducts humanitarian reconstructive efforts during the night purely so he can train the buildings down again during the day. Like an improbable anthropoid, he is known by many names: Masten, Marsden, Hipster Seagull, CM7, Martin, Morton… ok maybe not Morton, that’s probably taking this too far...

I asked the experienced opinion of my five year old son his thoughts on CM7.

Chicken McNuggets

I sat back and realised the depth and magnificence of the answer. It truly was one of those moments as a parent when you smile and give a silent appreciative nod, knowing that everything is going to be just fine.


In celebration of my son’s revelation, here is a picture of an oversized chicken nugget in a CM7 shirt, clearly causing mass destruction training the place down.

trainingdownthehouse - Copy.jpg




So why dedicate an entire article to Chicken McNuggets?

For like trying to track the course of a Malaysian Airlines flight, the Eagles will never reach their planned destination if Chicken McNuggets is not functioning to his full potential.

Every club has a whipping boy, the object of rage and frustrated derision from the supporters. Throughout the recent years, we have had many – Fletcher, Gehrig, McKinley, Read, RoJo, Staker, Swift and Wooden among others. Chicken McNuggets is our current dark star.

Being akin to an actual nugget not resembling food, CM7 does not resemble a classical footballer with his hipster styling and convergent skin art. This tends to particularly draw the ire of the meat-n-3-veg section of the crowd. Additionally, the reconstituted by-product that comprises a nugget will never compare against an actual piece of chicken. Likewise, Chicken McNuggets will forever live in the long shadow of comparison with Chris Judd despite not even being cleaved from the same animal. Finally, unless you are Usain Bolt, a trainspotter, or five years old nobody wants nuggets as their first choice from the menu. They want steak or burgers or subway subs or whatever other gluttonous monstrosity to calcify their arteries and end their lives faster. Similarly, Chicken McNuggets is that day when all the usual good stuff is on back order and the one quality item is sold out despite you being just the third customer. Regardless of how good those nuggets are, you will always compare them to what you were expecting to receive instead.


So putting the hate and misunderstanding aside, what does Chicken McNuggets present as a footballer?

If he were one of my juniors, vying for a place in the team, my short notes would be along the lines:
  • Covers ground, runs hard repeatedly.
  • Good feet, bad hands.
  • Makes good decisions in space.
  • Makes mistakes under pressure.
  • Looks to kick rather than handball, can be caught in possession due to this.
  • Natural winger.

With the above in mind, my question (and the crux of this article) is why is he not stationed as an absolutely outside midfielder and given as much space as possible to work with?


The statistical reality suggests this argument also.

In 2016 we averaged the second-least most disposals per game in the competition, only ahead of the Lions of Leppitsch (who remain the worst full team at AFL level that I have ever seen). It is a truly damning set of figures. Conversely, the two teams with the most average disposals last season played in the Grand Final.

Here is a chart that emphasises this. It is purely only the effectiveness of our forwardline that has kept us competitive.

SCvsDisp2016.jpg



“Yes, I already know that” I hear you say. “The reason our midfield is poor is because Chicken McNuggets is in the team” you exclaim.

Let’s have a further look into that.

Here is a chart of the performance of the leading 12 midfielders currently in our squad (including Mitchell) over the last two seasons. If you obviously exclude Mitchell, Chicken McNuggets has been by far our most productive and consistent midfielder after the standout trio of Priddis, Shuey and Gaff. Any opinions suggesting he does not merit a place in the team would need to justify why any of those seven other midfield options who have been inferior in output throughout the last two seasons should be selected ahead of him.

mids-2015-2016 - Copy.jpg


It goes further however. Uncontested possessions, the realm of the seagull – are important and in order to be successful teams need them. For example here is a list of the numbers of players within the top 100 and top 20 of uncontested possessions for each club last season:

Uncon-top100-20.jpg


As you can see, our club is on the wrong side of the correlation for success there.

Let’s now have a look at the breakdown of average uncontested possessions per match for the club in season 2016:

players-uncon.jpg


As you can see above there is Gaff and then daylight before Chicken McNuggets and the rest of the squad. Indeed, Gaff is possibly the most underrated player in the league as he is currently without parallel when it comes to owning the wing. Simply put, without him last year we would have struggled to finish in the top 12, lest the top 8.

But I digress, let’s look at the other leaders we have in that list:
  • Shuey – a complete midfielder who would be wasted out on the wing.
  • Hurn – a mobile defender with elite kicking that will never have the running capacity to play higher up the ground on a permanent basis.
  • Priddis – an inside contested bull. It is an indictment on other members of the squad that he is able to work harder and play the link up role more than them. Was inside top 50 for 2015, but outside top 100 in 2016.
  • Sheppard – much like Hurn, does not have the capacity to be a permanent part of the midfield.
  • Sheed – has potential to fulfil the role, but is better suited as an inside midfielder seeing that almost 40% of all his possessions over the last two seasons have been contested.
  • Butler – has a pensioner role in the backline, will never be a permanent midfielder. Dropped outside the top 100 in 2016.
  • Wellingham – has the skillset but not the mindset to be a midfielder and tends to get lost ball-watching when in the middle. Will not be a permanent part of the midfield.
  • Lecras – is a forward not a midfielder.
  • Jetta – everyone thinks of him as a winger because of a few games for the Swans in 2012. He is not a wing, or if he is, he is a poor one. His highest ranking for uncontested possessions in any season is 72nd in 2015. In 2016 he averaged almost five less uncontested possessions per game than Rosa’s output in 2015. He is a forward pocket not a midfielder.
  • Yeo – has all the talent to play just about anywhere on the ground. Decision making during link-up play can often be questionable. Currently doesn’t get the ball enough to justify a start on the wing.
  • Hutchings – if Priddis starred in the movie Twins, he would the Danny DeVito version. Useful as a tagging option but is not a wing.
  • Nelson – has potential, but is yet to demonstrate that he can get enough ball to become a midfielder.
  • Redden – the great disappointment of 2016. An inside bull at the Lions, he showed nothing of his capabilities in the season just gone. His 2015 uncontested average (61st) was higher than anyone on the Eagle’s list aside from Gaff and Chicken McNuggets. If he recaptures his Lions form he will surely be utilised to his strength as an inside midfielder.
  • Duggan – is seen to be another inside midfielder in the making, but statistically is much better when used on the outside. Indeed if he were 100% fit I would list him as the third best option in the current squad when it comes to the wing.
  • The rest of the list is irrelevant as options for the wing.


Hey what about Sam Mitchell?” I hear you ask. Well he is goddamn awesome. Elite or near-elite in almost every relevant category for a midfielder consistently for several seasons. Regarding average uncontested possessions, he was ranked 2nd and 7th in the competition during 2015 and 2016 respectively. It is in this aspect of his game that I believe will most positively change the dynamic of the way the Eagle’s midfield functions. But he is certainly not a wing – he is far too valuable for that.

So with all the above in mind, it leaves Chicken McNuggets as the best option to occupy the wing that Gaff is not charging rent upon.

But there is more to this than simply that, I’ll let the statistics speak for themselves - over seasons 2015 and 2016 the following occurs:

cm7-kick-vs-hb.jpg



Staggering. When Chicken McNuggets is given the time and space to kick rather than handball, he becomes elite and the team wins 20% more of the time.

It should be abundantly clear, like when the family dog gets old and incontinent – that he needs to play outside. Even if we are getting pumped for the contested ball he has to remain away from the packs. The data clearly shows that as soon as he is in a confined pressure situation that he either clangers a spud handball or gets pinged for holding it. I could even go as far to say that he is possibly the most outside player on the current list.

But every team needs a seagull, even the good ones – and elite seagulls can be the difference in winning premierships.


So don’t be so hard on our current dark star, because if we are going be successful we will need him to play his part well.



And so the destruction of buildings shall continue...
 

EagleShore

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Firstly, look what you've done to matt_bas :

485488.jpg



Secondly, kudos for the effort that went into that post :thumbsu:

Staggering. When Chicken McNuggets is given the time and space to kick rather than handball, he becomes elite and the team wins 20% more of the time.

Statistics do indeed form the basis of analysing the game. Forming the correct conclusions based upon statistics is, however, fraught with danger - much like Masten being in the clinches.

In this part of your post, I would have to ask which teams we were playing in the two categories - ie. I wonder who we played when Masten was able to find space and time to use his relatively skillful kick compared to who we played when he couldn't.

I dare say it was the defensively poorer teams in the former and the top 8 type sides in the latter.

This means that the quality of the opposition is potentially a confounding factor in your analysis. It's not Masten dragging us over the line, it's the lower quality opposition that allows both Masten to find space and for us to win.
 
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Quality OP. Definitely a good read

Hopefully the replies can be more nuanced than "herp derp Marsden is s**t but"

Personally I think the stats you posted on our win percentage and the correlation to Mastens kick to handball ratio are more a reflection of the fact he can be a damaging player when the game is on our terms. When we're struggling though he becomes ineffectual but it does underline that we need him on the outside more and he needs to keep his width from the contest whether we're winning the contested ball or not. He can't get sucked into the contest because it doesn't help

Your analysis also illustrates why the match committee persist with him when so many of us want to see the back of Masten. In their view he's important to our structure and there isn't necessarily anyone pushing him out of the side

On a slightly unrelated note the no.7 is a popular number for whipping boys - Gehrig, Fletcher and Masten have all drawn the ire of supporters. Even Turley in the early days copped it at times
 

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2006_Eagles

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I begrudgingly accept that Masten is elite at being a seagull and may indeed be best 22 just beca.... mmmmm.... mcnuggets

But it is very begrudgingly, don't sleep on dat
 
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Regarding the ease of opposition, I did actually look into this and the results were not significant.

For example, as per the case in the original post, over the last two seasons where CM7 has had more kicks than handballs the averaged finishing position of the opposition is equal to 9.71. (i.e. 1 is equivalent to playing the premiers every week whilst 18 would be playing the wooden spooners every week).

Comparatively, over the last two seasons where CM7 has had more or equal handballs to kicks the averaged finishing position of the opposition is equal to 9.17.

So yes, based on recent history, those instances are against slightly weaker teams, but the difference is not significant enough to affect the conclusions in the original post.
 

EagleShore

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For example, as per the case in the original post, over the last two seasons where CM7 has had more kicks than handballs the averaged finishing position of the opposition is equal to 9.71. (i.e. 1 is equivalent to playing the premiers every week whilst 18 would be playing the wooden spooners every week).

Comparatively, over the last two seasons where CM7 has had more or equal handballs to kicks the averaged finishing position of the opposition is equal to 9.17.
Not as big a difference as I'd have thought...good work again there. Could still be statistically significant, but determining that would involve an algorithm.

I actually thought going into the 2016 season he'd become vital given the reduced rotations (runs all day). Perhaps I was disappointed in relation to those loftier expectations.

I reckon if he can learn to handball doggy-style when being tackled instead of shrugging into his turtle shell, he'll be a more valuable asset than he currently is.
 
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Thoughtful and humorous OP. Thanks!

Our whole 2016 game plan seemed to revolve around avoiding uncontested possession.

I commented on it several times and it still baffles the crap out of me as to why we tried to play a heavily contested style- we just don't have the cattle for it and our skills in 2015 were very good. Possibly we tried to turn a weakness into a strength but ultimately I saw a side that was brilliant in 4th quarters in 2015 turn into a side that was completely gassed in the 4th quarter due to physical game style we tried to execute.
 
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Well done Dylan82 - a quality post. Always nice to get facts to question or back up views.

I have taken your research a little further and realise our answer to getting rid of CM7 possibly lays in our 2016 Draftee. Yes, that would be Rotham. He is the natural predator for CM7 and we need to elevate him so that he can replace CM7. As the article says, the natural predators for seagulls are Falcons and he is the only recent Falcon draftee that is likely to play wing.

Oh and given your like for correlations and stats, how about adding something in on Masten's other elite attributes for leading the AFL in caught holding the ball (aka as can't break a tackle) and least impact in man-man contact (called can't lay a tackle).


file:///C:/Users/Jon/Downloads/Fact_Sheet_-_Seagulls_in_the_CAD.pdf

SILVER GULL DETERRENT SYSTEMS


Silver Gulls, commonly known as “seagulls”, are Australian native birds that are part of our coastal
environment, and as such they are protected under the states wildlife act. Under this
legislation it is an offence to harm. Kill, destroy, take or injure protected wildlife by any means without a
permit.

In recent years there has been increasing numbers of seagulls nesting on buildings in urban areas. Seagulls can breed all year, but according to the
Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE), the peak breeding season occurs from July to October each year.

Contributing factors
Available food supply:
Silver gulls are opportunistic feeders, meaning they will take whatever food is available.

Available roosting sites:
Available roosting sites in their natural habitat, beaches and headlands, are increasingly limited due to
their current overabundance. This has caused Silver Gulls to find alternative flat open areas to roost
such as roofs, car parks, boats and piers.

Lack of a natural predator:
The Peregrine Falcon is one of the Silver Gull’s natural predator of the Silver gulls
and would have
assisted in maintaining silver gull numbers. Due to overdevelopment and loss of suitable habitat the
peregrine falcon is now rarely seen.
 

SpaceClef

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Thoughtful and humorous OP. Thanks!

Our whole 2016 game plan seemed to revolve around avoiding uncontested possession.

I commented on it several times and it still baffles the crap out of me as to why we tried to play a heavily contested style- we just don't have the cattle for it and our skills in 2015 were very good. Possibly we tried to turn a weakness into a strength but ultimately I saw a side that was brilliant in 4th quarters in 2015 turn into a side that was completely gassed in the 4th quarter due to physical game style we tried to execute.
Because Ploddus
 
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What the heck did I just read?!? :) Great post! I knew all my hard work would finally convict someone Masto is an elite player. Just one thing, you missed a nick name, most on here call him campaigner.
#isgoodismasto
#mastotheuntradable
#masto4pm
#campaigner
#aa
#brownlowwatch
 

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Quality OP. Now I feel like Chicken McNuggets for dinner. Must swing by Maccas on the way home.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk
 
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Looks like I've hit a sore point :D


Honestly I'm not actually a big fan of him, but I appreciate the role he can play for the team.

Personally I would prefer to have a midfield composed of Dangerfield and Bontempelli clones, but we don't have that option.


It's easy to say he's s**t, but then who else is going to take that spot? We are stacked full of inside midfielders and back flankers but lack depth in run and carry players with high endurance.


As to the repeated comments crying about how poor the midfield is - you're wrong. The midfield is actually quite solid. Not 2005-2006 by any means, but enough to break even most of the time, which is usually all we need considering the strength we have up forward.

Our biggest issue is actually the use of our structures and the squad selection continuously being far too top heavy.


I see it like this; replace three talls with three smalls and we win that elimination final against the Bulldogs...

...And it is along this road that the next article in this preseason series shall venture.
 
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avishka5

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i have defended masten over the years and i have come up with a similar conclusion. His 2015 season was exceptional and imo underrated by us fans. BUt thats season our midfield was in total control and we were winning the contested ball nearly every week. Masten needs to be fed or else he goes to s**t. He's not like Gaff in the sense where he can win his own ball when actually needed and thats why he is a C grade mid. When you look at some of the best midfields in the comp they don't have too many one dimentional midfielders and if they do, those guys tend to be top tier mids. I think contested ball and clearances will the areas we need to look at improving as its in those area where NN influence will be felt. It has to be a collective effort from our midfield aand even the guys in the wings have to win their share of CP's and Clearances. IMO Duggan, sheed, Yeo and a couple of other mids collectively could make up for Mastens input on the outside but are also much superior contested players.


I saw the bit about handpassing and i disagree. For a pure winger he handballs a lot. Not many wingers have a 1: 1 kick to handball ratio
 
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i have defended masten over the years and i have come up with a similar conclusion. His 2015 season was exceptional and imo underrated by us fans. BUt thats season our midfield was in total control and we were winning the contested ball nearly every week. Masten needs to be fed or else he goes to s**t. He's not like Gaff in the sense where he can win his own ball when actually needed and thats why he is a C grade mid. When you look at some of the best midfields in the comp they don't have too many one dimentional midfielders and if they do, those guys tend to be top tier mids. I think contested ball and clearances will the areas we need to look at improving as its in those area where NN influence will be felt. It has to be a collective effort from our midfield aand even the guys in the wings have to win their share of CP's and Clearances. IMO Duggan, sheed, Yeo and a couple of other mids collectively could make up for Mastens input on the outside but are also much superior contested players.


I saw the bit about handpassing and i disagree. For a pure winger he handballs a lot. Not many wingers have a 1: 1 kick to handball ratio
He was ok in 2015 pre biting. If Masto was running one on one for a loose ball his intent is not a do or die attitude to win that ball. Even if it was in the 4th quarter where his running ability is probably better than most in the AFL, he would lose that contest. At 27-28 if you haven't learnt that you're pure s**t.
 
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He was ok in 2015 pre biting. If Masto was running one on one for a loose ball his intent is not a do or die attitude to win that ball. Even if it was in the 4th quarter where his running ability is probably better than most in the AFL, he would lose that contest. At 27-28 if you haven't learnt that you're pure s**t.

I tend to think this is an issue of on-field leadership just as much as him being overtly soft. In these instances, where was Hurn telling him to get his s**t together and show some heart for the team? You can bet this season Mitchell won't stand idly by and let it pass.
 
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I tend to think this is an issue of on-field leadership just as much as him being overtly soft. In these instances, where was Hurn telling him to get his s**t together and show some heart for the team? You can bet this season Mitchell won't stand idly by and let it pass.
Thats a side point. He did the same s**t when Glass was captain. Maybe the captain should have more influence, but he's 27/28 if he's not doing it off his own accord why do we bother?
 

avishka5

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Thats a side point. He did the same s**t when Glass was captain. Maybe the captain should have more influence, but he's 27/28 if he's not doing it off his own accord why do we bother?
He's nothing more than a role player but one of our best role players. Even though he had a pretty bad year last season he was still having some good games within the season and averaged somewhere around 22 disposals in a midfield that didn't have too many player racking it up. I predict Masten to lift but he won't be squeezed out till someone from outside the best 22 starts offering more. Either way it has to be a win for us. Masten takes his finger out of his ass and finds 2015 Form or Duggan, Yeo, Partington, Jetta lift and replace him.
 
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He's nothing more than a role player but one of our best role players. Even though he had a pretty bad year last season he was still having some good games within the season and averaged somewhere around 22 disposals in a midfield that didn't have too many player racking it up. I predict Masten to lift but he won't be squeezed out till someone from outside the best 22 starts offering more. Either way it has to be a win for us. Masten takes his finger out of his ass and finds 2015 Form or Duggan, Yeo, Partington, Jetta lift and replace him.
Scenario is he plays round 1 and gets enough possessions but still does the weak s**t and stupid s**t but continues to play because he gets possessions. Maybe he gets dropped once, but knowing our match committee he's back in after 1 week because he gets 35 in the WAFL and the young kid only gets 10 touches in his first AFL game. A role player is still supposed ti fight for the ball like his life depends on it.
 

avishka5

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Scenario is he plays round 1 and gets enough possessions but still does the weak s**t and stupid s**t but continues to play because he gets possessions. Maybe he gets dropped once, but knowing our match committee he's back in after 1 week because he gets 35 in the WAFL and the young kid only gets 10 touches in his first AFL game. A role player is still supposed ti fight for the ball like his life depends on it.
i disagree. I don't think possessions will be as important this year as in previous years as we have Mitchell, a fit redden and sheed in the guts that are ball winners. He will have to improve the quantity of inside 50's without sacrificing the quality as well tackle more and not get pinged. Last year was the worst i have seen him getting pinged. Also another area i reckon him, Gaff and Jetta will have to improve is their contested work. Gaff seems to improve every year in regards to that but masten and Jetta are very ordinary when it comes to winning their own ball. Teams like dogs and GWS have wingmen that win their own ball and clearances.
 

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